olivLaw · US equity research
eBay Inc. EBAY
Services-Business Services, NEC · SIC 7389 · Vertical: Consumer sector
eBay is an online marketplace where third parties sell goods, with nearly 80 billion USD in gross merchandise volume (GMV) in 2025 and 136 million active buyers. It matters now because second-quarter 2026 results accelerated (GMV up 15 %), the company closed the Depop acquisition and raised its full-year outlook, while customs rules for small parcels are changing. In October 2026 it said it expects third-quarter results above guidance and announced a workforce reduction of about 9 %.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, eBay Inc. (EBAY) stock was 125.15 USD (+5.50% on the day), with market capitalisation 54.9 bn USD, P/E 27.2 on diluted EPS of 4.61 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.99%, beta 0.58, 52-week range 79.41–125.15 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 3.2 bn USD (+13.7% YoY), net income of 497.0 m USD (−20.9% YoY), diluted EPS 1.10 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 66.8
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 112.42 – 126.11
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.93 · band width 11.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 111.78 / 104.41
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 2.92 / 2.98
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +16.8% | −1.1% | +17.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | +12.6% | −0.5% | +13.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | +15.7% | +4.4% | +11.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | +43.7% | +12.3% | +31.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | +53.2% | +13.5% | +39.7 pp | +16.6% |
| 3 years | +208.7% | +76.4% | +132.3 pp | +18.9% |
| 5 years | +65.6% | +63.7% | +1.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.2 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 718.0 m | 697.0 m | 750.0 m | 794.0 m | 928.0 m | 802.0 m | 832.0 m | 887.0 m |
| Gross profit | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn |
| Research & development | 375.0 m | 393.0 m | 452.0 m | 455.0 m | 342.0 m | 450.0 m | 484.0 m | 517.0 m |
| Operating income | 543.0 m | 611.0 m | 479.0 m | 571.0 m | 616.0 m | 611.0 m | 676.0 m | 616.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 125.0 m | 52.0 m | 79.0 m ≈ | 77.0 m ≈ | 213.0 m | 93.0 m | 101.0 m ≈ | 116.0 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 65.0 m | 61.0 m | 62.0 m | 62.0 m | 61.0 m | 61.0 m | 65.0 m | 64.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 617.0 m | 629.0 m | 472.0 m | 568.0 m | 638.0 m | 618.0 m | 665.0 m | 605.0 m |
| Income tax | -63.0 m | 128.0 m | 107.0 m | -25.0 m | 101.0 m | 106.0 m | 113.0 m | 104.0 m |
| Net income | 679.0 m | 499.0 m | 364.0 m | 628.0 m | 540.0 m | 512.0 m | 550.0 m | 497.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.41 ≈ | 1.05 | 0.78 | 1.34 | 1.18 ≈ | 1.12 | 1.21 | 1.10 |
| Operating cash flow | 677.0 m | 755.0 m | -340.0 m ≈ | 862.0 m ≈ | 682.0 m | 969.0 m | 523.0 m ≈ | 875.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 117.0 m | 111.0 m | 101.0 m ≈ | 97.0 m ≈ | 216.0 m | 72.0 m | 223.0 m ≈ | 126.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 128.0 m | 134.0 m | 134.0 m | 132.0 m | 131.0 m | 139.0 m | 138.0 m | 138.0 m |
| Share repurchases | 911.0 m | 615.0 m | 624.0 m ≈ | 626.0 m ≈ | 635.0 m | 486.0 m | 323.0 m ≈ | 664.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 95 percentile of its own 38-quarter history (min 3.3, median 14.6, max 99.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8.7 bn | 7.4 bn | 8.9 bn | 10.4 bn | 9.8 bn | 10.1 bn | 10.3 bn | 11.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | −12.9% | −14.1% | +19.7% | +17.2% | −6.0% | +3.2% | +1.7% | +7.9% |
| Net income | 2.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 5.7 bn | 13.6 bn | -1.3 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −29.4% | +217.3% | +140.1% | −109.3% | unavailable | −28.6% | +2.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.55 | 2.09 | 7.89 | 20.54 | -2.27 | 5.19 | 3.94 | 4.34 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −18.0% | +277.5% | +160.3% | −111.1% | unavailable | −24.1% | +10.2% |
| net % | 29.2% | 24.0% | 63.7% | 130.6% | -13.0% | 27.4% | 19.2% | 18.3% |
| Free cash flow | 2.0 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.4 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.9 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 750.0 m USD
- Net debt
- -1.1 bn USD
- Equity
- 4.5 bn USD
- Total assets
- 17.4 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.17x
- Current ratio
- 1.10x
- ROE
- 42.1%
- ROA
- 11.0%
- FCF margin
- 12.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8.9 bn | 10.4 bn | 9.8 bn | 10.1 bn | 10.3 bn | 11.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.8 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 7.1 bn | 7.8 bn | 7.1 bn | 7.3 bn | 7.4 bn | 7.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 1.0 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 2.6 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.4 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 560.0 m | 485.0 m | 442.0 m | 441.0 m | 370.0 m | 421.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 3.2 bn ≈ | 3.4 bn ≈ | 2.8 bn ≈ | 2.4 bn ≈ | 2.7 bn ≈ | 2.7 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 304.0 m | 269.0 m | 235.0 m | 263.0 m | 259.0 m | 246.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 3.3 bn | 398.0 m | -1.6 bn | 3.7 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 858.0 m | 146.0 m | -327.0 m | 932.0 m | 297.0 m | 311.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 5.7 bn | 13.6 bn | -1.3 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 7.89 | 20.54 | -2.27 | 5.19 | 3.94 | 4.34 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 718.0 m | 663.0 m | 558.0 m | 533.0 m | 501.0 m | 468.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.4 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 362.0 m | 98.0 m | 90.0 m | 94.0 m | 108.0 m | 135.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 7.2 bn | 9.1 bn | 9.3 bn | 11.0 bn | 7.6 bn | 5.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 4.3 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 12.0 m | 8.0 m | 115.0 m | 114.0 m | 119.0 m | 125.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 19.3 bn | 26.6 bn | 20.9 bn | 21.6 bn | 19.4 bn | 17.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 278.0 m | 262.0 m | 261.0 m | 267.0 m | 257.0 m | 242.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 6.0 m | 1.4 bn | 1.2 bn | 750.0 m | 1.7 bn | 750.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 7.7 bn | 7.7 bn | 7.7 bn | 7.0 bn | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Feb 2024verified |
| Current liabilities | 4.0 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.5 bn | 6.1 bn | 4.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 15.7 bn | 16.8 bn | 15.7 bn | 15.2 bn | 14.2 bn | 13.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 3.6 bn † | 9.8 bn † | 5.2 bn † | 6.4 bn † | 5.2 bn † | 4.5 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 2.4 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 463.0 m | 444.0 m | 449.0 m | 456.0 m | 458.0 m | 525.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 2.0 bn ≈ | 2.2 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | 2.0 bn ≈ | 2.0 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 3.8 bn | 3.7 bn | 2.5 bn | 240.0 m | 2.2 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -5.7 bn | -6.5 bn | -3.8 bn | -2.5 bn | -3.8 bn | -3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 447.0 m | 466.0 m | 489.0 m | 528.0 m | 533.0 m | 531.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 5.1 bn | 7.1 bn | 3.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 59 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 54.9 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation39
- Returns81
- Quality85
- Balance sheet59
- Growth35
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 74.18 – 141.99 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)78.13 – 119.98 (Mid 94.39)WACC 9.2% · starting FCFF 2.6 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 73%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 17.1%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA74.18 – 125.29 (Mid 94.24)28 companies used · median multiple 13.7x · quartiles 10.8x – 18.2xAZO, CHD, CL, CTAS, CVS, DG, DLTR, DRI, HD, HSY, KMB, KO, KR, KVUE, LOW, MCD, MDLZ, MO, ORLY, PEP, PG, PM, QSR, ROST, SBUX, TGT, ULTA, YUM
- Peers: P/E85.97 – 141.99 (Mid 103.78)37 companies used · median multiple 22.5x · quartiles 18.7x – 30.8xADM, AZO, CASY, CHD, CL, CMG, CPRT, CTAS, CVS, DG, DLTR, DRI, ECL, HD, HSY, KDP, KMB, KO, KR, KVUE, LOW, MCD, MDLZ, MNST, MO, ORLY, PEP, PG, PM, QSR, ROST, SHW, TGT, TJX, ULTA, WSM, YUM
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 59/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 47.9% | 83 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Net margin · Quality | 16.9% | 74 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 114.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 4.3% | 35 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.1x | 57 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 10.0x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 27.2x | 39 (vs peers) | 11% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 18.2x | 25 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 4.4% | 55 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.8% | 69 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 22.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet59/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial35/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality85/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns81/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation39/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
eBay Inc. (EBAY). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 11.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 7.9%; net margin 16.9%; ROE 46.6%; net debt/EBITDA 0.1x.
The estimated value range is 78.13–125.29 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 94.39 USD, the price of 125.15 USD leaves a potential of -24.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -32.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 59/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 47.9%
- Net margin: 16.9%
- FCF conversion: 114.9%
- Interest coverage: 10.0x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 22.6%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.8x
- EV/EBITDA: 18.2x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y.
Versus the vertical median
Consumer sector · same sector · compared with 39 companies
Only companies with a capitalisation between 6.8 bn and 434.5 bn (within 8× of the company's); 395 of the vertical were left out.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOCoca Cola Co | 412.1 bn | 28.2 | 42.6% | 28.7% | +1.9% | +31% / +64% |
| PGPROCTER & GAMBLE Co | 387.8 bn | 25.2 | 29.4% | 18.2% | +3.3% | +13% / +9% |
| HDThe Home Depot, Inc. | 354.6 bn | 24.9 | 104.3% | 8.4% | +3.2% | −0% / +13% |
| PMPhilip Morris International Inc. | 329.3 bn | 30.8 | — | 24.8% | +7.3% | +34% / +126% |
| MCDMcDONALD’S CORPORATION | 198.3 bn | 0.0 | — | 31.7% | +3.7% | −10% / −1% |
| PEPPepsico Inc | 194.1 bn | 18.7 | 50.1% | 10.8% | +2.3% | −4% / −15% |
| TJXThe TJX Companies, Inc. | 159.2 bn | 26.8 | 62.2% | 9.7% | +7.1% | −5% / +64% |
| MOAltria Group, Inc. | 129.8 bn | 16.1 | — | 34.5% | −3.1% | +32% / +86% |
| LOWLowes Companies Inc | 128.7 bn | 19.4 | — | 7.3% | +3.1% | −5% / +15% |
| SBUXStarbucks Corporation | 125.1 bn | 63.2 | — | 5.2% | +2.8% | +26% / +10% |
| CVSCVS HEALTH Corp | 102.3 bn | 9.3 | 14.4% | 2.6% | +7.8% | −0% / +18% |
| CTASCintas Corporation | 90.9 bn | 45.1 | 41.4% | 17.8% | +8.9% | +23% / +66% |
| ECLEcolab Inc. | 88.4 bn | 42.9 | 20.7% | 12.0% | +2.2% | +14% / +64% |
| SHWThe Sherwin-Williams Company | 87.8 bn | 33.4 | 63.7% | 10.7% | +2.1% | +6% / +30% |
| MDLZMondelez International, Inc. | 85.3 bn | 21.2 | 15.5% | 10.2% | +5.8% | +17% / −5% |
| CLColgate-Palmolive Company | 78.5 bn | 38.7 | 358.9% | 9.6% | +1.4% | +23% / +25% |
| ROSTRoss Stores, Inc. | 78.5 bn | 29.7 | 42.6% | 10.8% | +7.7% | +39% / +88% |
| ORLYO Reilly Automotive Inc | 74.7 bn | 29.4 | — | 14.3% | +6.4% | −9% / +41% |
| TGTTarget Corporation | 74.1 bn | 16.9 | 26.4% | 4.1% | −1.7% | +80% / +22% |
| EBAYeBay Inc. | 54.9 bn | 27.2 | 46.6% | 16.9% | +7.9% | +53% / +209% |
| AZOAutoZone, Inc. | 53.5 bn | 21.8 | — | 12.6% | +7.4% | −16% / +27% |
| KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc. | 50.1 bn | 37.2 | 5.7% | 7.1% | +8.2% | +32% / +17% |
| MNSTMonster Beverage Corp | 47.8 bn | 22.4 | 25.7% | 23.1% | +10.7% | +30% / +77% |
| YUMYum! Brands, Inc. | 45.4 bn | 20.9 | — | 25.4% | +8.8% | +9% / +32% |
| CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | 44.5 bn | 32.9 | 48.5% | 10.8% | +5.4% | +2% / −20% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for EBAY from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 76.60 Total return -39% · Per year -39% | 135.44 Total return 8% · Per year 8% | 204.03 Total return 63% · Per year 63% |
| 3 years | 73.98 Total return -41% · Per year -16% | 147.22 Total return 18% · Per year 6% | 243.55 Total return 95% · Per year 25% |
| 5 years | 71.45 Total return -43% · Per year -11% | 160.02 Total return 28% · Per year 5% | 290.73 Total return 132% · Per year 18% |
- Exit P/E± 36.80
- Net margin± 25.76
- Annual revenue growth± 21.20
- Annual dilution± 2.16
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 26 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-sonnet-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 22 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
eBay is an online marketplace where third parties sell goods, with nearly 80 billion USD in gross merchandise volume (GMV) in 2025 and 136 million active buyers 12. It matters now because second-quarter 2026 results accelerated (GMV up 15 %), the company closed the Depop acquisition and raised its full-year outlook, while customs rules for small parcels are changing 12. In October 2026 it said it expects third-quarter results above guidance and announced a workforce reduction of about 9 % 3.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Collectibles concentrationhigh
Recent growth is supported by collectibles and eBay Live (roughly 8 times year on year) 1. If speculative interest fades, GMV and advertising could slow.
- Trade and customs policyhigh
Customs rules are changing in the US and EU (800 USD, 150 EUR, 3 EUR per item) 2. The net effect on cross-border GMV is uncertain.
- Slow buyer growthmedium
Active buyers are growing 2 % 1. If GMV depends mainly on average spend, growth may be fragile if consumers weaken.
- Depop integrationmedium
The company paid 1.4 bn USD in cash, with adjustments still to be finalised 1. If synergies are delayed, the deal could dilute returns on capital.
- Competitionmedium
Amazon, Chinese platforms and social networks are fighting for the same buyers 2. Pressure could mean lower fees or higher marketing costs.
- Quality of adjusted figureslow
Non-GAAP margin (28.5 %) is above GAAP margin (21.6 %) 1. The gap is worth tracking as an indicator of excluded costs.
- Restructuringlow
The plan announced in October 2026 cuts the workforce by about 9 %, with estimated charges of 130 to 150 mn USD, mostly recognised in the fourth quarter of 2026 3. Execution could temporarily disrupt products and operations.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- GMV stays within the 10–12 % neutral-currency range while collectibles and Depop contribute 1.
- Advertising keeps growing at double digits and non-GAAP margin holds near 28.5 % 1.
- Customs changes shift demand toward local sellers and second-hand goods 2.
- Buybacks and free cash flow support earnings per share 1.
What to watch
- Third-quarter 2026 results against guidance (revenue 3.07–3.12 bn USD; GMV 22.0–22.4 bn USD)Q3 2026; in October the company said it expects results above guidance [3]
- Depop's contribution to GMV and marginQ4 2026
- Active buyers trend (136 mn in the second quarter)Q3 and Q4 2026
- Growth rate of first-party advertising (25 % in the second quarter)Q3 2026
- Application of the 3 EUR EU parcel duty and its effect on cross-border GMVsecond half of 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 26 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-sonnet-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 22 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
eBay does not own the goods: it sells access to buyers. Revenue comes from marketplace fees and from advertising, mainly sellers paying to promote listings 2. In the second quarter of 2026 revenue was 3.13 bn USD and GMV 22.4 bn USD, both up 15 % as reported and 14 % at neutral exchange rates 1.
Revenue as a share of GMV was about 14.0 % (our calculation from published figures) 1. Non-GAAP operating margin was 28.5 % and GAAP margin 21.6 % 1. Free cash flow was 326 mn USD and share repurchases 310 mn USD 1.
The company concentrates on categories where authenticity and selection matter: motor parts, collectibles, refurbished goods, apparel, luxury goods and sneakers 2.
Segments
Core marketplace (US and international)
Nearly all revenue comes from marketplace fees and advertising 2. About 51 % of GMV was generated outside the US in 2025 2. Active buyers rose 2 % to 136 mn, so growth comes mostly from average spend rather than user count 1.
Advertising
First-party advertising revenue was 570 mn USD, up 25 %, and total advertising was 596 mn USD, or 2.7 % of GMV 1. It is a margin lever because sellers pay for visibility on top of the base fee.
Market context
Online third-party commerce is dominated by Amazon and Chinese platforms, and eBay positions itself on unique, used or hard-to-find goods, where selection matters more than fast delivery 2. The company names Alibaba, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple and Meta as competitors, plus alternatives such as Shopify, Facebook Marketplace, Google Shopping and TikTok 2.
Customs rules are a market factor. In the US, the exemption for parcels up to 800 USD was removed for China and Hong Kong in May 2025 and for all parcels in August 2025; in the EU, a flat 3 EUR customs duty per item on parcels under 150 EUR was scheduled from July 2026 2. These may disadvantage cross-border sellers of cheap goods, but could favour second-hand marketplaces and local sellers.
Trends
- GMV accelerationtailwind
GMV grew 15 % as reported in the second quarter of 2026, and third-quarter guidance points to 10–12 % at neutral exchange rates, between 22.0 and 22.4 bn USD 1. Part of the growth comes from the Depop acquisition.
- Collectibles and live sellingmixed
eBay Live grew roughly 8 times, and Goldin auctions set records 1. The category can be volatile if speculative enthusiasm fades.
- Advertisingtailwind
First-party advertising revenue grew 25 % 1. The effect supports margin, but it depends on the return sellers get from promotion.
- Customs rulesmixed
The end of the de minimis exemption in the US and the EU restrictions change the economics of small cross-border parcels 2. The company lists changes in trade policy that could affect cross-border commerce among its risks 1.
- Nearly flat buyer countheadwind
Active buyers grew only 2 % 1. Durable long-term GMV growth depends on attracting new users or higher spend per user.
Competitive position
eBay competes on selection, price and trust with Amazon, Chinese cross-border platforms, social networks with built-in marketplaces and niche platforms 2. Its strengths are the brand, 2.5 bn live listings and authentication in categories such as luxury goods and sneakers 2. Its weaknesses are the lack of in-house logistics at Amazon's scale and a slow-growing user base 12.
- AmazonAMZN
Online commerce leader, with its own logistics and a large subscriber base.
- AlibabaBABA
Cross-border competitor through its platforms, cited in the annual report.
- EtsyETSY
Niche marketplace for handmade and vintage goods; sold Depop to eBay.
- Meta (Facebook Marketplace)META
Free, local alternative cited by eBay in its annual report.
- ShopifySHOP
Platform on which sellers can open their own stores.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- DOJ says presidents should be able to sell secrets on eBayHacker News · 26 Oct 2026 · EN
- În 1991, un mecanic a vândut cu 4.000 de lire un Lotus din 1972, ca să-și salveze casa. După 35 de ani, a găsit mașina pe eBay și a plătit de 4 ori mai mult ca s-o recuperezeLibertatea.ro · 22 Oct 2026 · RO
- EBay to lay off 9% of workforce in its second round of job cuts this yearCNBC — Top News · 21 Oct 2026 · EN
- A fost nevoit să-și vândă mașina la divorț. 35 de ani mai târziu, a găsit-o pe eBay și a cumpărat-o înapoi de patru ori mai scumpAntena 3 CNN · 21 Oct 2026 · RO
- Jafurile din Franța se mută pe internet - Vinted și eBay, vizate de autorități după apariția unor oferte suspecteAdevărul · 20 Oct 2026 · RO
- Vinted, Amazon şi eBay vor să oprească vânzarea bunurilor furate la protestele din Franţa - Observator NewsSurge — Google News · 20 Oct 2026 · RO
- Bunurile furate în timpul jafurilor din Franța, în vizorul platformelor online. Vinted, Amazon și eBay promit controale sporite - TVRInfo.roSurge — Google News · 20 Oct 2026 · RO
- eBay Restricts Listings of Radio Equipment, but Exempts Ham-Band-Only GearHacker News · 16 Oct 2026 · EN
- Stocks making the biggest moves midday: eBay, Sandisk, Meta Platforms, IonQ, Lumentum & moreCNBC — Top News · 12 Oct 2026 · EN
- eBay bans airbag sales as concerns about faulty or counterfeit parts riseNPR News · 24 Sept 2026 · EN
- Jefferies cuts eBay target to $75 on EBITDA downsideYahoo Finance — News · 21 Sept 2026 · EN
- Starbucks’s Snoopy cups and McDonald’s SpongeBob toys are commanding huge markups on eBayMarketWatch — Top Stories · 19 Sept 2026 · EN
- Is eBay Stock Outperforming the Dow?Yahoo Finance — News · 15 Sept 2026 · EN
- eBay CEO Jamie Iannone Sells Company Shares Worth $2.3 Million Amid a 12% One-Year ReturnYahoo Finance — News · 11 Sept 2026 · EN
- eBay Sees Collectibles, Live Commerce and AI Powering Its Next Growth PhaseYahoo Finance — News · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- A Massachusetts man says eBay withheld over $11,000 from his $23,750 truck sale — then told him to hand over the keysYahoo Finance — News · 03 Sept 2026 · EN
- Shopify Falls 4% as Profit Taking Follows 18% Monthly Run, eBay and Etsy SlipYahoo Finance — News · 31 Aug 2026 · EN
- GameStop stock jumps with eBay investment expected to boost Q2 profitYahoo Finance — News · 31 Aug 2026 · EN
- GameStop Sees Higher Profit as eBay Investment Offsets Lower SalesYahoo Finance — News · 31 Aug 2026 · EN
- Executive Sells Nearly 2,300 Shares of eBay Stock, Valued at More Than $235,000Yahoo Finance — News · 29 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 26 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 29 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
- Current report28 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report22 Oct 2026Results of operations · Exit or disposal costs
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report12 May 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report05 May 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement30 Apr 2026
- Quarterly report29 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Comunicat de rezultate, trimestrul II 2026 (Form 8-K, anexa 99.1) · SEC / eBay · 05 Aug 2026
- [2] Raportul anual Form 10-K, anul 2025 · SEC / eBay · 27 Feb 2026
- [3] Form 8-K (Items 2.02 și 2.05): rezultate preliminare Q3 2026 și plan de restructurare · SEC / eBay · 22 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.