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olivLaw · US equity research

Ross Stores, Inc. ROST

Retail-Family Clothing Stores · SIC 5651 · Vertical: Retail-Family Clothing Stores (SIC 5651)

245.74USD+6.11% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Ross Stores operates the off-price chains Ross Dress for Less and dd’s DISCOUNTS, with sales of $22,751 million in fiscal 2025. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026 sales rose to $6,265 million and comparable store sales grew 10%. The company raised its fiscal 2026 EPS range to $8.61 to $8.77, including an approximately $0.60 per share benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) stock was 245.74 USD (+6.11% on the day), with market capitalisation 78.5 bn USD, P/E 29.7 on diluted EPS of 8.26 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.69%, beta 0.66, 52-week range 159.41–255.23 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2027): revenue of 6.3 bn USD (+13.3% YoY), net income of 851.3 m USD (+67.6% YoY), diluted EPS 2.66 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
78.5 bn USD
shares as of 14 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
29.7
Diluted EPS TTM 8.26 · TTM to 01 Aug 2026
E/P (TTM)
3.36%
TTM to 01 Aug 2026
Dividend yield
0.69%
DPS 12m 1.70
Beta (2y)
0.66
Volatility (1y) 27%
52-week range
159.41255.23

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
63.9
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
221.09 – 242.72
above the upper band · %B 1.14 · band width 9.3%
SMA 50 / 200
230.89 / 223.07
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
1.03 / 0.24
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+8.6%−1.1%+9.7 pp—
3 months−3.0%−0.5%−2.5 pp—
6 months+7.4%+4.4%+3.0 pp—
Year to date+36.4%+12.3%+24.1 pp—
1 year+51.5%+13.5%+37.9 pp−12.3%
3 years+102.7%+76.4%+26.3 pp+24.2%
5 years+105.4%+63.7%+41.7 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−13.0%
12 Jun 2026 → 29 Jun 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−41.2%
18 Nov 2021 → 30 Jun 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+15.5%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2027 · 01 Aug 2026

Revenue
6.3 bn USD
+13.3% YoY
Net income
851.3 m USD
+67.6% YoY
Diluted EPS
2.66
+70.5% YoY
net / operating
13.6% / 17.6%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26Q4 '26Q1 '27Q2 '27
Revenue5.1 bn5.9 bn5.0 bn5.5 bn5.6 bn6.6 bn6.0 bn6.3 bn
Cost of revenue3.6 bn4.3 bn3.6 bn4.0 bn4.0 bn4.8 bn4.2 bn4.1 bn
SG&A832.9 m837.6 m797.1 m888.7 m920.0 m990.1 m975.9 m1.0 bn
Operating income604.2 m731.0 m606.5 m638.3 m648.5 m814.1 m804.0 m1.1 bn
Depreciation & amortisation111.8 m117.2 m115.9 m126.4 m132.2 m134.9 m132.6 m140.2 m
Pre-tax income646.7 m770.8 m640.9 m670.6 m682.4 m848.3 m837.5 m1.1 bn
Income tax157.9 m184.0 m161.6 m162.6 m170.5 m202.4 m187.5 m283.5 m
Net income488.8 m586.8 m479.2 m508.0 m511.9 m645.9 m650.0 m851.3 m
Diluted EPS1.481.78 ≈1.471.561.582.00 ≈2.022.66
Operating cash flow513.4 m ≈882.6 m409.7 m668.4 m ≈827.1 m ≈1.1 bn836.0 m875.8 m ≈
Capex180.4 m ≈206.0 m207.4 m201.7 m ≈209.3 m ≈200.9 m209.0 m251.3 m ≈
Dividends paid121.7 m ≈121.2 m133.3 m132.3 m ≈131.6 m ≈130.9 m143.6 m142.6 m ≈
Share repurchases262.5 m ≈262.5 m262.5 m262.5 m ≈262.5 m ≈262.5 m318.8 m318.8 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 81 percentile of its own 43-quarter history (min 18.1, median 23.1, max 483.9; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20192020202120222023202420252026
Revenue15.0 bn16.0 bn12.5 bn18.9 bn18.7 bn20.4 bn21.1 bn22.8 bn
Revenue YoY+6.0%+7.0%−21.9%+50.9%−1.2%+9.0%+3.7%+7.7%
Net income1.6 bn1.7 bn85.4 m1.7 bn1.5 bn1.9 bn2.1 bn2.1 bn
Net income YoY+16.5%+4.6%−94.9%+1,917.5%−12.2%+24.0%+11.5%+2.6%
Diluted EPS4.264.600.244.874.385.566.326.61
Diluted EPS YoY+20.0%+8.0%−94.8%+1,929.2%−10.1%+26.9%+13.7%+4.6%
net %10.6%10.4%0.7%9.1%8.1%9.2%9.9%9.4%
Free cash flow1.7 bn1.6 bn1.8 bn1.2 bn1.0 bn1.8 bn1.6 bn2.2 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Jan 2026

Cash
4.6 bn USD
Financial debt
1.5 bn USD
Net debt
-3.1 bn USD
Equity
6.2 bn USD
Total assets
15.5 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.25x
Current ratio
1.58x
ROE
36.7%
ROA
14.1%
FCF margin
9.7%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2024
20.4 bn
2025
21.1 bn
2026
22.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2024
14.8 bn
2025
15.3 bn
2026
16.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2024
5.6 bn ≈
2025
5.9 bn ≈
2026
6.3 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026derived

SG&A
2024
3.3 bn
2025
3.3 bn
2026
3.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2024
2.3 bn
2025
2.6 bn
2026
2.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2024
419.4 m
2025
446.8 m
2026
509.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2024
2.7 bn ≈
2025
3.0 bn ≈
2026
3.2 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026derived

Pre-tax income
2024
2.5 bn
2025
2.8 bn
2026
2.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2024
597.3 m
2025
666.4 m
2026
697.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2024
1.9 bn
2025
2.1 bn
2026
2.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2024
5.56
2025
6.32
2026
6.61

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2024
337.4 m
2025
331.0 m
2026
324.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Dividend per share
2024
1.34
2025
1.47
2026
1.62

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2024
4.9 bn
2025
4.7 bn
2026
4.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2024
2.2 bn
2025
2.4 bn
2026
2.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2024
7.4 bn
2025
7.5 bn
2026
7.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2024
3.5 bn
2025
3.8 bn
2026
4.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2024
14.3 bn
2025
14.9 bn
2026
15.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2024
2.0 bn
2025
2.1 bn
2026
2.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2024
249.7 m
2025
699.7 m
2026
499.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2024
2.2 bn
2025
1.5 bn
2026
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2024
4.2 bn
2025
4.7 bn
2026
4.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2024
4.9 bn †
2025
5.5 bn †
2026
6.2 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2024
2.5 bn
2025
2.4 bn
2026
3.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2024
762.8 m
2025
720.1 m
2026
819.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2024
1.8 bn ≈
2025
1.6 bn ≈
2026
2.2 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2024
-762.8 m
2025
-637.5 m
2026
-819.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2024
-1.4 bn
2025
-1.9 bn
2026
-2.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Dividends paid
2024
454.8 m
2025
488.7 m
2026
528.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2024
950.0 m
2025
1.0 bn
2026
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
7.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue CAGR 3Y
6.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Revenue CAGR 5Y
12.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EBIT growth (YoY)
4.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income growth (YoY)
2.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income CAGR 3Y
12.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Net income CAGR 5Y
90.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EPS growth (YoY)
4.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EPS CAGR 3Y
14.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
EPS CAGR 5Y
94.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
FCF growth (YoY)
34.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Profitability

Gross margin
29.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
EBITDA margin
16.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
EBIT margin
13.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Net margin
10.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
FCF margin
11.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026

Returns

ROE
42.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
ROA
17.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
ROIC
74.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
ROCE
30.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
20.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
19.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
-3.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Debt / equity
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Quick ratio
1.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Cash ratio
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
3.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Capital expenditure
870.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Free cash flow
2.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
FCF conversion
104.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Cash conversion
93.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
60 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Days payables outstanding
51 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
78.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Enterprise value
75.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
29.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
29.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Earnings yield
3.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
P/B
11.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
P/S
3.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
EV/EBITDA
19.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
EV/EBIT
22.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
EV/Sales
3.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
P/FCF
28.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
FCF yield
3.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Dividend yield
0.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
2.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 61 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

245.74 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 78.5 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
78.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
29.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
P/B
11.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
EV/EBITDA
19.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
ROE
42.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Net margin
10.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
7.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Dividend yield
0.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2026
Latest reported period: 01 Aug 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 01 Aug 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 14 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 01 Sept 2026
verified 2670derived 161

Score by group

  • Valuation13
  • Returns59
  • Quality94
  • Balance sheet91
  • Growth77

Estimated value range

Low
65.39
USD per share
Mid
82.83
USD per share
High
103.30
USD per share
Price: 245.74 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -66.3% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -196.7% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: same comparison basis (not independent confirmations) · 2 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 64.14 – 111.48 USD.

Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA64.14 – 95.12 (Mid 74.95)
    3 companies used · median multiple 5.3x · quartiles 4.4x – 6.9x
    AEO, GAP, LE
  • Peers: P/E66.64 – 111.48 (Mid 90.72)
    6 companies used · median multiple 11.0x · quartiles 8.1x – 13.5x
    AEO, ANF, BKE, GAP, LE, URBN
  • Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate21.29 – 28.63 (Mid 24.42)
    a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Retail-Family Clothing Stores (SIC 5651)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 61/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality74.4%100 (on a fixed band)11%
Net margin · Quality10.8%78 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality104.9%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth6.8%56 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth14.7%98 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-0.8x100 (on a fixed band)11%
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.6x68 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation29.7x0 (vs peers)11%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation19.2x0 (on a fixed band)11%
FCF yield · Valuation3.6%44 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns2.2%31 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns19.7%100 (on a fixed band)4%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet91/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth77/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality94/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns59/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation13/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-08-01.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 22.8 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 7.7%; net margin 10.8%; ROE 42.6%; net debt/EBITDA -0.8x.

The estimated value range is 65.39–103.30 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: same basis (multiples on one peer group, not independent confirmations)); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 82.83 USD, the price of 245.74 USD leaves a potential of -66.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -196.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 61/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 74.4%
  • Net margin: 10.8%
  • FCF conversion: 104.9%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 14.7%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: -0.8x
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 19.7%

What contradicts it

  • P/E (TTM): 29.7x
  • EV/EBITDA: 19.2x
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Interest coverage.

Versus the vertical median

Retail-Family Clothing Stores (SIC 5651) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 9 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
29.7x
vertical median 11.0x
above median (+169.4%)
EV/EBITDA
19.2x
vertical median 5.3x
above median (+263.9%)
P/S
3.2x
vertical median 0.6x
above median (+414.4%)
P/B
11.6x
vertical median 2.4x
above median (+378.5%)
ROE
42.6%
vertical median 37.1%
above median (+14.8%)
Net margin
10.8%
vertical median 8.8%
above median (+23.4%)
EBIT margin
13.7%
vertical median 9.4%
above median (+46.4%)
Revenue YoY
7.7%
vertical median 4.1%
above median (+87.1%)
Net debt/EBITDA
-0.8x
vertical median -0.3x
below median
Dividend yield
0.7%
vertical median 2.9%
below median (−76.1%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
TJXThe TJX Companies, Inc.159.2 bn26.862.2%9.7%+7.1%−5% / +64%
ROSTRoss Stores, Inc.78.5 bn29.742.6%10.8%+7.7%+51% / +103%
GAPGap, Inc8.3 bn7.133.8%8.1%+1.9%−12% / +18%
URBNUrban Outfitters, Inc.7.9 bn14.320.9%8.8%+11.1%+24% / +157%
ANFAbercrombie & Fitch Co.7.3 bn14.740.5%10.0%+6.4%+75% / +125%
AEOAmerican Eagle Outfitters, Inc.3.6 bn10.920.4%5.9%+4.1%+5% / +12%
BKEBuckle, Inc2.5 bn11.045.8%16.6%+6.6%−15% / +24%
LELands’ End, Inc.301.1 m0.997.9%30.5%+0.7%−35% / +44%
DXLGDestination Xl Group, Inc.27.1 m—-30.6%-8.8%−6.9%−50% / −87%
PLCEThe Children’s Place, Inc.5.4 m——-11.8%−12.8%−97% / −99%

1- and 3-year price returns: for ROST from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
149.66
Total return -39% · Per year -39%
264.30
Total return 8% · Per year 8%
397.72
Total return 63% · Per year 63%
3 years
151.92
Total return -36% · Per year -14%
301.25
Total return 25% · Per year 8%
496.78
Total return 105% · Per year 27%
5 years
154.22
Total return -34% · Per year -8%
343.36
Total return 44% · Per year 8%
620.51
Total return 158% · Per year 21%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 75.31
  • Net margin± 52.72
  • Annual revenue growth± 42.36
  • Annual dilution± 4.43

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Ross Stores operates the off-price chains Ross Dress for Less and dd’s DISCOUNTS, with sales of $22,751 million in fiscal 2025 1. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026 sales rose to $6,265 million and comparable store sales grew 10% 2. The company raised its fiscal 2026 EPS range to $8.61 to $8.77, including an approximately $0.60 per share benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Comparable sales growth in 2026 was strong and driven by customer traffic, a sign of real consumer interest 23.
  • The company runs a large store network and its own distribution centers, which support scale economies in marketing and distribution 1.

Weaknesses

  • Operating margin in fiscal 2025 declined from the prior year under pressure from distribution and tariff-related costs 1.
  • The company imports a significant share of its goods from China, exposing it to changes in trade policy 1.
  • The business is exclusively in physical stores, limiting access to the growing e-commerce channel 1.

Opportunities

  • Opening stores in new markets and in areas of high demand could widen the customer base 3.
  • Modernizing information systems and the in-store experience could support sales growth 1.
  • If new customers stay loyal, the company could reduce reliance on existing shoppers and support long-term growth 3.

Threats

  • Tariffs and changes in trade policy can raise purchase costs and weaken demand 1.
  • Competition from online retailers and traditional chains could erode market share 1.
  • Weather and reduced consumer spending can affect traffic and sales 1.

Risks

  • Tariffs and trade policyhigh

    The company imports goods from China and has reported a negative tariff impact on costs; trade policy changes can affect margins.

  • Competitionmedium

    Pressure from online retailers and other off-price chains is intense and may limit the ability to keep discounts attractive.

  • Dependence on opportunistic buyingmedium

    The model depends on a steady supply of brand name goods at attractive prices; if vendors reduce excess inventory, supply could fall.

  • Workforcemedium

    High turnover and wage costs can affect profitability, particularly in peak seasons.

  • Cyber and operational risklow

    Cyberattacks or supply chain disruptions could affect sales and the company's reputation.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Strong traffic growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 and the raised annual outlook suggest demand remains solid 23.
  • The expanded opening plan and share repurchases could support long-term growth 3.
  • The opportunistic buying model and lean cost structure offer a competitive edge if they hold over time 1.

What would break the thesis

  • The tariff refund benefit is temporary, and the high second-quarter margin will not necessarily repeat in later periods 23.
  • The company remains exposed to tariffs and trade policy, which can complicate cost planning.
  • If traffic falls or competition intensifies, comparable sales growth could slow.

What to watch

  • Third-quarter results and comparable sales against company guidanceQ3 2026
  • Number of new store openings against the 115-store plan2026
  • Effect of tariffs and trade policy on operating marginnext 10-K
  • Completion of the $1.275 billion share repurchase program2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Ross Stores, Inc. operates two off-price apparel and home fashion brands: Ross Dress for Less, the largest such chain in the United States with 1,904 locations at January 31, 2026, and dd’s DISCOUNTS, with 363 stores 1. Ross offers 20% to 60% off department and specialty store prices, while dd’s DISCOUNTS offers 20% to 70% off moderate department and discount store prices 1. The model relies on opportunistic purchases of brand name merchandise, including close-out and upfront purchases and packaway storage 1.

Market context

The company operates in the off-price sector, where competition is fragmented and where discounts on known brands, assortment and convenience matter most 1. Macroeconomic risks remain high, including tariffs and inflation, especially for goods from China, which make up more than half of merchandise sold 1.

Consumer demand can be affected by weather and by consumer spending levels; in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 traffic was the main driver of comparable sales growth 23. If this trend holds, the company could keep attracting customers, although later results depend on the macroeconomic backdrop 3.

Trends

  • Tariffs and trade policymixed

    Tariffs on imported goods, especially from China, raise purchase costs and complicate margin planning; the company reported a negative tariff impact in fiscal 2025 1. IEEPA tariff refunds gave a temporary benefit in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 2.

  • Growth in store traffictailwind

    Comparable sales growth was driven mainly by higher customer traffic rather than basket size, suggesting stronger interest in the offer 23. If traffic stays high, the company could sustain growth over the medium term.

  • Store network expansionmixed

    The company is expanding in new and existing markets and has raised its 2026 opening plan 3. Expansion can support growth, but new markets carry higher construction and marketing costs and results that are harder to predict 1.

  • Labor costsheadwind

    Rising minimum wages, health costs and high turnover in stores can increase operating expenses 1. If the company cannot retain staff, recruiting and training costs would rise.

Competitive position

Ross differentiates itself from online retailers, department stores, specialty stores, discount stores and manufacturer outlets, many of which belong to large chains with substantial resources 1. Entry into off-price has few economic barriers, and online competition is growing 1.

The company argues its edge lies in buying below the prices paid by conventional retailers and in easy-to-shop stores, but this position is not assured if competitors adopt new technologies faster 1. Competitive pressure could hit margins if discounts must deepen.

  • TJX CompaniesTJX

    An off-price competitor in the United States, named among other off-price retailers in the company's sources.

  • Department and discount stores

    Large discount and department chains competing for customers and for store locations.

  • Specialty stores

    Apparel and footwear specialty retailers competing in the same merchandise categories.

  • Online retailers

    E-commerce platforms competing for customers and consumer spending.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-01-31 · SEC / Ross Stores, Inc. · 31 Mar 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-08-01 · SEC / Ross Stores, Inc. · 01 Sept 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Ross Stores, Inc. · 20 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.