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olivLaw · US equity research

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. AEO

Retail-Family Clothing Stores · SIC 5651 · Vertical: Retail-Family Clothing Stores (SIC 5651)

21.36USD+9.31% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

American Eagle Outfitters is a global specialty apparel retailer operating the American Eagle, Aerie, OFFLINE by Aerie, Todd Snyder and Unsubscribed brands. It matters now because Aerie's growth drove strong second-quarter fiscal 2026 results, against a backdrop where the company relies on its own stores and international licensing partners.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) stock was 21.36 USD (+9.31% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.6 bn USD, P/E 10.9 on diluted EPS of 1.96 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.93%, beta 1.55, 52-week range 14.53–28.19 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2027): revenue of 1.4 bn USD (+7.5% YoY), net income of 134.1 m USD (+72.7% YoY), diluted EPS 0.79 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
3.6 bn USD
shares as of 10 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
10.9
Diluted EPS TTM 1.96 · TTM to 01 Aug 2026
E/P (TTM)
9.16%
TTM to 01 Aug 2026
Dividend yield
2.93%
DPS 12m 0.63
Beta (2y)
1.55
Volatility (1y) 53%
52-week range
14.5328.19

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
74.5
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
16.56 – 20.70
above the upper band · %B 1.16 · band width 22.2%
SMA 50 / 200
17.38 / 18.29
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.82 / 0.61
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+17.9%−1.1%+19.0 pp—
3 months+19.9%−0.5%+20.3 pp—
6 months+26.3%+4.4%+21.9 pp—
Year to date−19.0%+12.3%−31.3 pp—
1 year+32.0%+13.5%+18.5 pp−12.3%
3 years+15.3%+76.4%−61.1 pp+44.3%
5 years−19.6%+63.7%−83.3 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−48.5%
06 Jan 2026 → 10 Sept 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−67.7%
23 Nov 2021 → 13 Jun 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
−4.3%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2027 · 01 Aug 2026

Revenue
1.4 bn USD
+7.5% YoY
Net income
134.1 m USD
+72.7% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.79
+75.6% YoY
net / operating
9.7% / 15.3%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26Q4 '26Q1 '27Q2 '27
Revenue1.3 bn1.6 bn1.1 bn1.3 bn1.4 bn1.8 bn1.2 bn1.4 bn
Cost of revenue762.5 m1.0 bn767.2 m783.7 m810.8 m1.2 bn739.1 m708.3 m
Gross profit526.6 m599.2 m322.4 m500.0 m551.9 m651.1 m456.2 m672.1 m
SG&A351.4 m401.6 m338.8 m342.2 m386.3 m418.2 m376.5 m408.4 m
Operating income106.1 m142.3 m-85.2 m103.1 m112.6 m95.7 m28.2 m211.4 m
Depreciation & amortisation51.6 m57.0 m53.5 m54.7 m53.0 m54.7 m51.5 m52.3 m
Pre-tax income108.2 m145.3 m-85.1 m100.5 m124.6 m108.1 m27.6 m178.1 m
Income tax28.2 m43.4 m-19.7 m23.7 m33.2 m26.6 m4.7 m44.4 m
Net income80.0 m104.3 m-64.9 m77.6 m91.3 m87.9 m23.5 m134.1 m
Diluted EPS0.410.55 ≈-0.360.450.530.50 ≈0.140.79
Operating cash flow52.9 m ≈383.8 m-54.7 m27.8 m ≈67.1 m ≈415.9 m-65.2 m181.5 m ≈
Capex60.7 m ≈64.9 m61.6 m71.0 m ≈69.7 m ≈58.6 m61.4 m66.2 m ≈
Dividends paid24.0 m ≈23.8 m21.7 m21.2 m ≈21.2 m ≈21.2 m20.9 m21.0 m ≈
Share repurchases0 ≈60.0 m31.3 m0 ≈0 ≈25.6 m53.5 m0 ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 19 percentile of its own 36-quarter history (min 8.8, median 14.3, max 47.9; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20192020202120222023202420252026
Revenue4.0 bn4.3 bn3.8 bn5.0 bn5.0 bn5.3 bn5.3 bn5.5 bn
Revenue YoY+6.3%+6.8%−12.7%+33.3%−0.4%+5.4%+1.3%+4.1%
Net income261.9 m191.3 m-209.3 m419.6 m125.1 m170.0 m329.4 m192.0 m
Net income YoY+28.3%−27.0%−209.4%unavailable−70.2%+35.9%+93.7%−41.7%
Diluted EPS1.471.12-1.262.030.640.861.681.09
Diluted EPS YoY+30.1%−23.8%−212.5%unavailable−68.5%+34.4%+95.3%−35.1%
net %6.5%4.4%-5.6%8.4%2.5%3.2%6.2%3.5%
Free cash flow267.6 m205.1 m74.5 m69.8 m145.9 m406.3 m254.3 m195.4 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Jan 2026

Cash
238.9 m USD
Financial debt
0 USD
Net debt
-238.9 m USD
Equity
1.7 bn USD
Total assets
4.0 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.00x
Current ratio
1.51x
ROE
11.1%
ROA
4.9%
FCF margin
3.5%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2024
5.3 bn
2025
5.3 bn
2026
5.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2024
3.2 bn
2025
3.2 bn
2026
3.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2024
2.0 bn
2025
2.1 bn
2026
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

SG&A
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.4 bn
2026
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2024
222.7 m
2025
427.3 m
2026
226.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2024
235.2 m
2025
220.5 m
2026
222.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2024
457.9 m ≈
2025
647.8 m ≈
2026
448.4 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026derived

Pre-tax income
2024
238.9 m
2025
439.8 m
2026
249.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2024
69.8 m
2025
112.9 m
2026
63.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2024
170.0 m
2025
329.4 m
2026
192.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2024
0.86
2025
1.68
2026
1.09

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2024
196.9 m
2025
196.4 m
2026
176.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Dividend per share
2024
0.43
2025
0.50
2026
0.50

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2024
354.1 m
2025
309.0 m
2026
238.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2024
247.9 m
2025
262.4 m
2026
258.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2024
640.7 m
2025
636.7 m
2026
702.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.4 bn
2026
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2024
713.3 m
2025
751.3 m
2026
785.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2024
225.3 m
2025
225.1 m
2026
225.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2024
46.1 m
2025
42.4 m
2026
37.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2024
3.6 bn
2025
3.8 bn
2026
4.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2024
268.3 m
2025
280.7 m
2026
251.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2024
0
2025
0
2026
0

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Current liabilities
2024
891.2 m
2025
882.7 m
2026
867.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2024
1.7 bn
2025
1.8 bn
2026
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2024
580.7 m
2025
476.8 m
2026
456.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2024
174.4 m
2025
222.5 m
2026
260.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2024
406.3 m ≈
2025
254.3 m ≈
2026
195.4 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2024
-287.4 m
2025
-217.5 m
2026
-202.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2024
-109.5 m
2025
-301.9 m
2026
-326.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Dividends paid
2024
83.8 m
2025
96.5 m
2026
85.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2024
10.7 m
2025
190.9 m
2026
56.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
4.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue CAGR 3Y
3.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Revenue CAGR 5Y
8.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EBIT growth (YoY)
-47.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income growth (YoY)
-41.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income CAGR 3Y
15.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-35.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EPS CAGR 3Y
19.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
-23.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Profitability

Gross margin
40.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
EBITDA margin
11.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
EBIT margin
7.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Net margin
5.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
FCF margin
6.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026

Returns

ROE
20.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
ROA
8.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
ROIC
20.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
ROCE
13.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
32.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
24.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
-93.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Quick ratio
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
599.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Capital expenditure
255.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Free cash flow
343.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
FCF conversion
102.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Cash conversion
90.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
15 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Days inventory outstanding
82 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Days payables outstanding
27 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Cash conversion cycle
71 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
3.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Enterprise value
3.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
10.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
10.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Earnings yield
9.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
P/B
2.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
P/S
0.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
EV/EBITDA
5.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
EV/EBIT
7.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
EV/Sales
0.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
P/FCF
10.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
FCF yield
9.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Dividend yield
2.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
4.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Attractive profile

Score: 80 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']

Closing price

21.36 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 3.6 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
3.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
10.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
P/B
2.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
EV/EBITDA
5.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
ROE
20.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Net margin
5.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
4.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Dividend yield
2.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026

Coverage and freshness

32/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2026
Latest reported period: 01 Aug 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 01 Aug 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 10 Sept 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 10 Sept 2026
verified 2737derived 196

Score by group

  • Balance sheet90
  • Valuation86
  • Quality79
  • Growth65
  • Returns79

Estimated value range

Low
17.75
USD per share
Mid
27.99
USD per share
High
40.52
USD per share
Price: 21.36 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: 31.0% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 23.7% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 6.57 – 55.30 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA24.37 – 55.30 (Mid 34.33)
    3 companies used · median multiple 8.6x · quartiles 6.1x – 13.9x
    GAP, LE, ROST
  • Peers: P/E17.75 – 40.52 (Mid 27.99)
    7 companies used · median multiple 14.3x · quartiles 9.1x – 20.7x
    ANF, BKE, GAP, LE, ROST, TJX, URBN
  • Dividend discount (DDM)6.57 – 8.84 (Mid 7.54)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Retail-Family Clothing Stores (SIC 5651)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Attractive profile · Score 80/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality20.5%100 (on a fixed band)11%
Net margin · Quality5.9%22 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality102.0%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth3.6%30 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth19.4%100 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-0.1x100 (on a fixed band)11%
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.6x66 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation10.9x71 (vs peers)11%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation5.3x88 (on a fixed band)11%
FCF yield · Valuation9.6%100 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns4.6%65 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns24.5%100 (on a fixed band)4%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet90/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth65/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality79/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns79/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation86/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-08-01.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 5.5 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 4.1%; net margin 5.9%; ROE 20.4%; net debt/EBITDA -0.1x.

The estimated value range is 17.75–40.52 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 27.99 USD, the price of 21.36 USD leaves a potential of 31.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 23.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 80/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 20.5%
  • FCF conversion: 102.0%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 19.4%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: -0.1x
  • P/E (TTM): 10.9x
  • EV/EBITDA: 5.3x
  • FCF yield: 9.6%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 24.5%

What contradicts it

  • Net margin: 5.9%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 3.6%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Interest coverage.

Versus the vertical median

Retail-Family Clothing Stores (SIC 5651) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 9 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
10.9x
vertical median 14.3x
below median (−23.7%)
EV/EBITDA
5.3x
vertical median 8.6x
below median (−38.4%)
P/S
0.6x
vertical median 1.2x
below median (−48.7%)
P/B
2.0x
vertical median 3.9x
below median (−48.0%)
ROE
20.4%
vertical median 41.6%
below median (−51.0%)
Net margin
5.9%
vertical median 9.7%
below median (−39.8%)
EBIT margin
7.8%
vertical median 11.1%
below median (−30.1%)
Revenue YoY
4.1%
vertical median 6.4%
below median (−36.1%)
Net debt/EBITDA
-0.1x
vertical median -0.5x
above median
Dividend yield
2.9%
vertical median 2.1%
above median (+42.3%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
TJXThe TJX Companies, Inc.159.2 bn26.862.2%9.7%+7.1%−5% / +64%
ROSTRoss Stores, Inc.78.5 bn29.742.6%10.8%+7.7%+39% / +88%
GAPGap, Inc8.3 bn7.133.8%8.1%+1.9%−12% / +18%
URBNUrban Outfitters, Inc.7.9 bn14.320.9%8.8%+11.1%+24% / +157%
ANFAbercrombie & Fitch Co.7.3 bn14.740.5%10.0%+6.4%+75% / +125%
AEOAmerican Eagle Outfitters, Inc.3.6 bn10.920.4%5.9%+4.1%+32% / +15%
BKEBuckle, Inc2.5 bn11.045.8%16.6%+6.6%−15% / +24%
LELands’ End, Inc.301.1 m0.997.9%30.5%+0.7%−35% / +44%
DXLGDestination Xl Group, Inc.27.1 m—-30.6%-8.8%−6.9%−50% / −87%
PLCEThe Children’s Place, Inc.5.4 m——-11.8%−12.8%−97% / −99%

1- and 3-year price returns: for AEO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
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Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
12.86
Total return -37% · Per year -37%
22.74
Total return 10% · Per year 10%
34.27
Total return 64% · Per year 64%
3 years
12.25
Total return -36% · Per year -14%
24.40
Total return 24% · Per year 7%
40.41
Total return 101% · Per year 26%
5 years
11.67
Total return -34% · Per year -8%
26.19
Total return 39% · Per year 7%
47.65
Total return 145% · Per year 20%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 6.10
  • Net margin± 4.27
  • Annual revenue growth± 3.54
  • Annual dilution± 0.36

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

American Eagle Outfitters is a global specialty apparel retailer operating the American Eagle, Aerie, OFFLINE by Aerie, Todd Snyder and Unsubscribed brands. It matters now because Aerie's growth drove strong second-quarter fiscal 2026 results, against a backdrop where the company relies on its own stores and international licensing partners.

SWOT

Strengths

  • A diverse brand portfolio, with Aerie growing strongly and American Eagle carrying strong name recognition 13.
  • An integrated omni-channel network of stores, digital channels and a digital loyalty program 1.
  • International license partners extend brand reach without large capital outlays 1.

Weaknesses

  • The American Eagle brand remains weak, with comparable sales declining in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 3.
  • Gross margins were pressured by promotions and tariffs in fiscal 2025, showing sensitivity of profitability 1.
  • Dependence on foreign manufacturing and a single international buying agent leaves the company exposed to supply shocks 1.

Opportunities

  • Expanding the Aerie and OFFLINE brands could reach new customer segments 3.
  • Growing digital sales and the loyalty program could raise customer lifetime value 1.
  • Licensing in Asia, Europe and Latin America, with partners running stores and online platforms 1.

Threats

  • A drop in discretionary consumer spending from inflation or recession could reduce demand 1.
  • New tariffs or trade policy changes could raise import costs and pressure margins 12.
  • Intense digital competition and fast-fashion price pressure could erode market share 1.

Risks

  • Discretionary consumer spendinghigh

    Weaker consumer confidence or a recession could reduce sales and margins.

  • Tariff policyhigh

    Shifting tariffs and legal uncertainty could raise import costs.

  • Reliance on foreign suppliersmedium

    Concentrated overseas production could delay deliveries if logistics or geopolitics are disrupted.

  • Digital competitionmedium

    Customer expectations on delivery and returns could pressure prices and costs.

  • Inventory and seasonalitymedium

    Higher inventory and strong seasonality could force markdowns if demand weakens.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Strong growth at Aerie could continue and offset the stagnation at American Eagle.
  • If margins stabilize after tariff effects, profitability could recover to better levels.
  • The omni-channel network and loyalty program could support closer customer relationships.

What would break the thesis

  • American Eagle performance remains weak, and dependence on one large brand could limit growth.
  • Tariff refund benefits are temporary and could mask weak underlying operating performance.
  • Intense digital competition and uncertain discretionary demand could erode margins over the long term.

What to watch

  • Comparable sales trajectory at American Eagle and pace of recoveryQ3 2026
  • Delivery against fiscal 2026 operating income guidance of $540 to $550 million2026
  • Pace of international license expansion2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

The company operates mainly through the American Eagle brand, which had 805 stores as of January 31, 2026 1, and the Aerie brand, offering intimates, activewear and swim. Sales come through company-owned stores, online channels and concessions, with Todd Snyder and Unsubscribed completing the portfolio. The company reports nearly 1,500 stores operated or licensed worldwide 1.

Substantially all merchandise is made by foreign suppliers, mainly in Asia, and imports are subject to complex trade and tariff rules 1. The company also relies on the Real Rewards digital loyalty program and integrated omni-channel capabilities.

Segments

American Eagle

The core brand, with 805 stores as of January 31, 2026 1. Sales were roughly flat in fiscal 2025, and comparable sales decreased 1% in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 3.

Market context

The digital channel is growing quickly and increases competitive pressure on pricing and delivery, while mall traffic declines 1. The company responds with investment in digital marketing and expansion through licensing.

Trends

  • Tariffs and refundsmixed

    The US Supreme Court held IEEPA tariffs unlawful, and the company received refunds of $196 million including interest in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 23. The refunds lifted results considerably, but their one-time nature may limit comparability.

  • Aerie momentumtailwind

    Strong growth at Aerie and OFFLINE, with comparable sales up sharply in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 3, could support revenue if the trend holds.

  • Consumer and inflation pressureheadwind

    Discretionary spending was hit by inflation and economic uncertainty, which pushed margins down in fiscal 2024 and 2025 12.

  • Digital shift and online competitionmixed

    Digital sales grew, but they bring price pressure, higher delivery expectations and ongoing technology investment 1.

Competitive position

The company competes with specialty apparel chains, department stores, discount stores, fast-fashion retailers and online businesses. Price pressure has increased as fast-fashion and off-price retailers reshaped customer expectations for known brands 1.

Competition is most intense online, where rivals have advanced digital experiences and efficient delivery systems 1. Brand differentiation and product design remain essential to keeping market share.

  • Department stores

    Apparel departments compete for the same consumer spending.

  • Fast-fashion and off-price retailers

    Have shifted customer price expectations for well-known brands and added promotional pressure.

  • Online businesses

    Compete on digital experience, delivery speed and return policies, central to the company's online channel.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

  • Quarterly report10 Sept 2026
  • Current report09 Sept 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report01 Jul 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report29 Jun 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report10 Jun 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report03 Jun 2026
  • Current report28 May 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Proxy statement15 May 2026
  • Annual report30 Mar 2026
  • Current report04 Mar 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-01-31 · SEC / American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. · 30 Mar 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-08-01 · SEC / American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. · 10 Sept 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. · 09 Sept 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.