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olivLaw · US equity research

The Buckle, Inc. BKE

Retail-Family Clothing Stores · SIC 5651 · Vertical: Retail-Family Clothing Stores (SIC 5651)

47.88USD+3.59% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

The Buckle, Inc. is a US retailer of casual apparel, footwear and accessories, with a focus on denim and personalized in-store service. In its latest fiscal year net sales reached 1.298 billion USD, and the company is continuing to grow through new store openings and remodels.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, The Buckle, Inc. (BKE) stock was 47.88 USD (+3.59% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.5 bn USD, P/E 11.0 on diluted EPS of 4.34 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 9.19%, beta 0.75, 52-week range 39.65–58.25 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2027): revenue of 319.8 m USD (+4.6% YoY), net income of 44.4 m USD (−1.3% YoY), diluted EPS 0.87 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
2.5 bn USD
shares as of 04 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
11.0
Diluted EPS TTM 4.34 · TTM to 01 Aug 2026
E/P (TTM)
9.06%
TTM to 01 Aug 2026
Dividend yield
9.19%
DPS 12m 4.40
Beta (2y)
0.75
Volatility (1y) 30%
52-week range
39.6558.25

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
62.5
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
43.58 – 48.47
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.88 · band width 10.6%
SMA 50 / 200
43.67 / 47.30
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.97 / 0.97
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+10.2%−1.1%+11.3 pp—
3 months+5.4%−0.5%+5.9 pp—
6 months−12.2%+4.4%−16.6 pp—
Year to date−10.4%+12.3%−22.7 pp—
1 year−13.1%+13.5%−26.7 pp−4.7%
3 years+32.9%+76.4%−43.5 pp+44.3%
5 years−1.2%+63.7%−64.8 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−31.9%
10 Nov 2025 → 15 Sept 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−50.0%
18 Nov 2021 → 14 Jul 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
−0.2%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2027 · 01 Aug 2026

Revenue
319.8 m USD
+4.6% YoY
Net income
44.4 m USD
−1.3% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.87
−2.2% YoY
net / operating
13.9% / 17.4%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26Q4 '26Q1 '27Q2 '27
Revenue293.6 m379.2 m272.1 m305.7 m320.8 m399.1 m288.7 m319.8 m
Cost of revenue153.5 m179.7 m145.1 m160.7 m166.9 m189.2 m155.3 m166.8 m
Gross profit140.1 m199.5 m127.0 m145.0 m153.9 m210.0 m133.5 m153.0 m
SG&A85.6 m103.3 m83.4 m88.7 m93.0 m109.3 m74.0 m97.2 m
Operating income54.5 m96.2 m43.5 m56.3 m60.9 m100.6 m59.5 m55.8 m
Pre-tax income58.5 m101.1 m46.6 m59.6 m64.5 m105.4 m62.1 m58.8 m
Income tax14.3 m23.9 m11.4 m14.6 m15.8 m24.5 m15.2 m14.4 m
Net income44.2 m77.2 m35.2 m45.0 m48.7 m80.8 m46.9 m44.4 m
Diluted EPS0.881.53 ≈0.700.890.961.59 ≈0.920.87
Operating cash flow43.8 m ≈120.8 m31.0 m58.4 m ≈49.4 m ≈112.3 m49.3 m46.7 m ≈
Capex10.2 m ≈9.8 m11.4 m12.0 m ≈11.1 m ≈10.9 m14.7 m29.9 m ≈
Dividends paid17.8 m ≈144.7 m17.9 m17.9 m ≈17.9 m ≈171.4 m18.0 m18.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 78 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 5.9, median 10.0, max 14.8; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20192020202120222023202420252026
Revenue885.5 m900.3 m901.3 m1.3 bn1.3 bn1.3 bn1.2 bn1.3 bn
Revenue YoY−3.1%+1.7%+0.1%+43.6%+3.9%−6.3%−3.4%+6.6%
Net income95.6 m104.4 m130.1 m254.8 m254.6 m219.9 m195.5 m209.7 m
Net income YoY+6.6%+9.2%+24.6%+95.8%−0.1%−13.6%−11.1%+7.3%
Diluted EPS1.972.142.665.165.134.403.894.14
Diluted EPS YoY+6.5%+8.6%+24.3%+94.0%−0.6%−14.2%−11.6%+6.4%
net %10.8%11.6%14.4%19.7%18.9%17.4%16.1%16.2%
Free cash flow98.7 m123.3 m219.8 m292.7 m212.0 m217.4 m199.7 m205.8 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Jan 2026

Cash
249.5 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
424.6 m USD
Total assets
991.3 m USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
1.89x
ROE
49.4%
ROA
22.0%
FCF margin
15.9%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.2 bn
2026
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2024
642.0 m
2025
624.9 m
2026
662.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Gross profit
2024
619.1 m
2025
592.8 m
2026
635.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

SG&A
2024
348.0 m
2025
351.4 m
2026
374.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Operating income
2024
271.1 m
2025
241.4 m
2026
261.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2024
289.2 m
2025
257.8 m
2026
276.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Income tax
2024
69.3 m
2025
62.3 m
2026
66.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Net income
2024
219.9 m
2025
195.5 m
2026
209.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2024
4.40
2025
3.89
2026
4.14

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2024
50.0 m
2025
50.3 m
2026
50.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Dividend per share
2024
3.90
2025
3.90
2026
4.40

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2024
268.2 m
2025
266.9 m
2026
249.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Inventories
2024
126.3 m
2025
120.8 m
2026
139.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Current assets
2024
444.3 m
2025
439.2 m
2026
447.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2024
128.8 m
2025
145.8 m
2026
162.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Total assets
2024
889.8 m
2025
913.2 m
2026
991.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Accounts payable
2024
46.0 m
2025
46.0 m
2026
47.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Current liabilities
2024
221.5 m
2025
213.9 m
2026
236.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Total liabilities
2024
476.6 m
2025
489.4 m
2026
566.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Equity
2024
413.2 m †
2025
423.8 m †
2026
424.6 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2024
254.6 m
2025
242.0 m
2026
251.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Capex
2024
37.3 m
2025
42.3 m
2026
45.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Free cash flow
2024
217.4 m ≈
2025
199.7 m ≈
2026
205.8 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2024
-41.8 m
2025
-45.3 m
2026
-43.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2024
-196.7 m
2025
-198.0 m
2026
-225.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Dividends paid
2024
196.7 m
2025
198.0 m
2026
225.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Share repurchases
2024
—
2025
—
2026
—

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Mar 2023verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
6.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-1.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Revenue CAGR 5Y
7.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EBIT growth (YoY)
8.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income growth (YoY)
7.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income CAGR 3Y
-6.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Net income CAGR 5Y
10.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EPS growth (YoY)
6.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EPS CAGR 3Y
-6.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
EPS CAGR 5Y
9.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
FCF growth (YoY)
3.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Profitability

Gross margin
49.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
20.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Net margin
16.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
FCF margin
14.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026

Returns

ROE
45.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
ROA
20.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
32.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
101.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
117.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Quick ratio
1.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Cash ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
257.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Capital expenditure
66.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Free cash flow
191.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
FCF conversion
86.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
82 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Days payables outstanding
39 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
2.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
11.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
11.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Earnings yield
9.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
P/B
5.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
P/S
1.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
12.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
FCF yield
7.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Dividend yield
9.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
9.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 56 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

47.88 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 2.5 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
2.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
11.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
P/B
5.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
45.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Net margin
16.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
6.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Dividend yield
9.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026

Coverage and freshness

27/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2026
Latest reported period: 01 Aug 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 01 Aug 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 04 Sept 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 10 Sept 2026
verified 2345derived 167

Score by group

  • Valuation75
  • Balance sheet100
  • Quality85
  • Growth0
  • Returns61

Estimated value range

Low
48.47
USD per share
Mid
64.20
USD per share
High
83.81
USD per share
Price: 47.88 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 34.1% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 25.4% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 39.11 – 89.86 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/E39.11 – 89.86 (Mid 62.07)
    7 companies used · median multiple 14.3x · quartiles 9.0x – 20.7x
    AEO, ANF, GAP, LE, ROST, TJX, URBN
  • Dividend discount (DDM)57.82 – 77.76 (Mid 66.32)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Retail-Family Clothing Stores (SIC 5651)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 56/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality16.6%89 (vs peers)10%
FCF conversion · Quality86.6%81 (on a fixed band)10%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-1.2%0 (on a fixed band)13%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-6.9%0 (on a fixed band)13%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.1x100 (on a fixed band)7%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation11.0x57 (vs peers)17%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation7.8%97 (on a fixed band)13%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns9.1%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns117.8%3 (on a fixed band)7%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality85/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns61/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation75/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

BUCKLE, INC (BKE). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-08-01.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.3 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 6.6%; net margin 16.6%; ROE 45.8%.

The estimated value range is 48.47–83.81 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 64.20 USD, the price of 47.88 USD leaves a potential of 34.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 25.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 56/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 16.6%
  • FCF conversion: 86.6%
  • Current ratio: 2.1x
  • FCF yield: 7.8%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 9.1%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -1.2%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -6.9%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 117.8%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA.

Versus the vertical median

Retail-Family Clothing Stores (SIC 5651) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 9 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
11.0x
vertical median 14.3x
below median (−22.9%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 6.9x
P/S
1.9x
vertical median 0.6x
above median (+198.2%)
P/B
5.0x
vertical median 2.4x
above median (+107.3%)
ROE
45.8%
vertical median 37.1%
above median (+23.2%)
Net margin
16.6%
vertical median 8.8%
above median (+89.1%)
EBIT margin
20.8%
vertical median 9.4%
above median (+121.9%)
Revenue YoY
6.6%
vertical median 4.1%
above median (+60.5%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median -0.4x
Dividend yield
9.2%
vertical median 2.1%
above median (+346.8%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
TJXThe TJX Companies, Inc.159.2 bn26.862.2%9.7%+7.1%−5% / +64%
ROSTRoss Stores, Inc.78.5 bn29.742.6%10.8%+7.7%+39% / +88%
GAPGap, Inc8.3 bn7.133.8%8.1%+1.9%−12% / +18%
URBNUrban Outfitters, Inc.7.9 bn14.320.9%8.8%+11.1%+24% / +157%
ANFAbercrombie & Fitch Co.7.3 bn14.740.5%10.0%+6.4%+75% / +125%
AEOAmerican Eagle Outfitters, Inc.3.6 bn10.920.4%5.9%+4.1%+5% / +12%
BKEBuckle, Inc2.5 bn11.045.8%16.6%+6.6%−13% / +33%
LELands’ End, Inc.301.1 m0.997.9%30.5%+0.7%−35% / +44%
DXLGDestination Xl Group, Inc.27.1 m—-30.6%-8.8%−6.9%−50% / −87%
PLCEThe Children’s Place, Inc.5.4 m——-11.8%−12.8%−97% / −99%

1- and 3-year price returns: for BKE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
26.37
Total return -38% · Per year -38%
46.76
Total return 7% · Per year 7%
70.62
Total return 58% · Per year 58%
3 years
22.75
Total return -34% · Per year -13%
45.66
Total return 22% · Per year 7%
76.11
Total return 92% · Per year 24%
5 years
19.63
Total return -30% · Per year -7%
44.58
Total return 36% · Per year 6%
82.02
Total return 129% · Per year 18%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 11.41
  • Net margin± 7.99
  • Annual revenue growth± 6.94
  • Annual dilution± 0.67

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 21 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (10 Sept 2026).

In brief

The Buckle, Inc. is a US retailer of casual apparel, footwear and accessories, with a focus on denim and personalized in-store service. In its latest fiscal year net sales reached 1.298 billion USD, and the company is continuing to grow through new store openings and remodels. 1

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has a recognized denim brand, a high share of exclusive brands and a rising gross margin. 1
  • The financial position is solid, with cash and short and long-term investments and no bank borrowings at the end of fiscal 2025. 1
  • Personalized services and the private label credit card loyalty program build lasting customer relationships. 1

Weaknesses

  • Dependence on fashion trends can lead to forecasting errors that quickly affect sales. 1
  • The company operates from a single distribution center, creating a risk of supply interruption to stores. 1
  • Many stores are still in malls, where traffic is declining, while rent costs remain high. 1

Opportunities

  • Relocating stores to outdoor centers and growing the online channel could support sales growth. 1
  • If channel integration succeeds, the company could attract more customers both online and in stores. 1
  • Opening new stores and remodels could extend the geographic reach across the 42 states. 1

Threats

  • A decline in consumer spending due to inflation or economic uncertainty could reduce sales. 1
  • Changes in import tariffs and trade rules can raise the cost of goods produced abroad. 1
  • Online competition and price pressure could reduce margins if the company does not adapt its offer. 1

Risks

  • Fashion sensitivityhigh

    Success depends on anticipating customer tastes. Forecasting mistakes could reduce sales and damage brand image. 1

  • Single distribution centerhigh

    All stores are supplied from one center in Kearney. A disruption could affect distribution and sales. 1

  • Reliance on foreign sourcesmedium

    Part of the merchandise is made abroad without long-term supply contracts. Tariffs and trade restrictions could raise costs. 1

  • Cybersecurity and data riskmedium

    The company holds customer personal and payment data. A breach could create costs and affect its reputation. 1

  • Expansion and store developmentlow

    Growth depends on opening profitable stores. Unprofitable locations could reduce net earnings. 1

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If comparable store sales keep growing and margins hold, the company could sustain solid cash flow for investment and dividends. 1
  • Exclusive brands and a strong position in denim could support margins better than those of retailers reliant on third-party brands. 1
  • If relocations and online integration succeed, the company could win back traffic lost from malls. 1

What would break the thesis

  • If consumer spending slows, comparable sales could return to lower levels and profit could be hit. 1
  • Dependence on a single distribution center and one major denim supplier could amplify operational shocks. 1
  • If fashion trends shift quickly, the company could have to cut prices or carry slow-moving inventory. 1

What to watch

  • Comparable store sales trendQ3 2026
  • Delivery of the planned store openings and remodels2026
  • Mix of branded and private label merchandise and gross marginnext 10-K
  • Capital spending and operating cash flow trendsnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 21 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (10 Sept 2026).

The business

Buckle sells medium to better-priced casual apparel, footwear and accessories for men, women and kids through 440 stores in 42 US states as of January 31, 2026, under the names 'Buckle' and 'Buckle Youth'. 1 Services include free hemming, free gift-packaging, a private label credit card and a guest loyalty program. 1 Purchasing, pricing and distribution are controlled centrally from Kearney, Nebraska, which hosts the only store distribution center. 1

The business model rests on a carefully selected assortment, well-known brands and an exclusive private label, which generally earns higher margins than branded products. 1 In fiscal 2025 brand name merchandise made up about 53% of net sales and private label about 47%. 1 Many stores have moved from enclosed malls to outdoor power and lifestyle centers, where the company sees room for growth. 1

Online sales rose 9.8% in fiscal 2025 to 217.1 million USD, showing a gradual integration of channels. 1 The company continues to invest in buckle.com and omni-channel capabilities. 1

Segments

Denim

Denim is the largest category at 42.5% of fiscal 2025 net sales and is the cornerstone of the merchandising strategy. 1 The company offers denim from brands such as Levi's, Wrangler and Rock Revival, as well as from its exclusive BKE brand. 1

Tops and accessories

Tops, including sweaters, are a significant contributor, while accessories have been steady over recent years and complete outfits. 1 The footwear share has declined over the last three years, pointing to a shift in product mix. 1

Online sales

E-commerce is a growing channel but remains smaller than physical stores. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026 online sales rose 2.3%, a slower pace than the prior year. 2

Market context

Specialty apparel retail is highly competitive, and companies compete on fashion, selection, quality, price, location and service. 1 For Buckle, consumer spending depends on disposable income, consumer confidence and inflation, and the company acknowledges that a decline in spending would hurt sales and profit. 1 The company's market share is not stated in the sources used.

Traffic in many traditional malls has declined because of online retail, pushing retailers to reorganize their store networks. 1 Buckle responds by moving stores into outdoor centers and integrating physical and digital channels. 1

Trends

  • Growth in comparable store salestailwind

    In the second quarter of fiscal 2026 comparable store net sales rose 2.1%, and 3.5% in the first half. 2 This supports revenue, but remains more modest than total sales growth. 2

  • Changing shopping behaviormixed

    Consumers increasingly shop online and change their shopping routines, which has reduced mall traffic. 1 If Buckle manages to integrate its channels, it could offset part of this pressure. 1

  • Pressure on consumer spendingheadwind

    Macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates, consumer debt and geopolitical conflicts can reduce discretionary spending. 1 If these pressures intensify, demand for apparel could fall. 1

  • Store relocationstailwind

    Moving stores from malls to outdoor power and lifestyle centers has been successful, and the company plans to continue. 1 If this strategy stays effective, it could support visibility and sales in smaller and mid-sized markets. 1

Competitive position

Buckle competes in the specialty fashion retail segment, winning customers through selection, personalized service and the in-store experience. 1 Competition comes from both physical retailers and online platforms, which have changed buying habits. 1

The company differentiates itself through exclusive brands and services such as free alterations and its loyalty program. 1 Dependence on third-party brands and a small number of suppliers, including its main denim supplier, can limit negotiating flexibility. 1

  • Mall and shopping center apparel retailers

    Physical retailers selling similar casual apparel in the same shopping centers, as classified in the sources.

  • E-commerce platforms

    Online retailers that have reduced mall traffic and compete on convenience and price.

  • Denim and footwear brands

    Brand owners whose products Buckle sells, which may also sell directly to consumers.

  • US specialty apparel retailers

    Regional and national chains targeting the same 15 to 30 year old customer segment.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-01-31 · SEC / The Buckle, Inc. · 01 Apr 2026
  2. [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / The Buckle, Inc. · 21 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.