olivlawolivlaw

olivLaw · US equity research

Group 1 Automotive, Inc. GPI

Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations · SIC 5500 · Vertical: Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations (SIC 5500)

272.81USD+2.94% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Group 1 Automotive is a large automotive dealer operator in the United States and the United Kingdom that sells new and used vehicles, arranges financing, sells service and insurance contracts and provides maintenance and parts. It matters now because of its acquisition-led expansion, a senior notes offering of 1,250.0 million USD, and uncertainty over tariffs, the UK motor finance review and vehicle demand.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI) stock was 272.81 USD (+2.94% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.3 bn USD, P/E 8.6 on diluted EPS of 31.64 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.79%, beta 0.76, 52-week range 224.85–426.91 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 5.4 bn USD (−6.7% YoY), net income of 102.9 m USD (+691.5% YoY), diluted EPS 8.59 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
3.3 bn USD
shares as of 23 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
8.6
Diluted EPS TTM 31.64 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
11.60%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.79%
DPS 12m 2.15
Beta (2y)
0.76
Volatility (1y) 42%
52-week range
224.85426.91

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
62.4
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
218.08 – 273.04
in the upper half of the band · %B 1.00 · band width 22.4%
SMA 50 / 200
254.92 / 304.95
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
4.51 / 0.03
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+13.0%−2.0%+15.0 pp—
3 months−1.7%−2.2%+0.4 pp—
6 months−20.7%+4.3%−25.0 pp—
Year to date−30.6%+10.6%−41.2 pp—
1 year−29.8%+10.5%−40.2 pp+0.3%
3 years−0.8%+73.7%−74.4 pp+18.2%
5 years+38.5%+61.7%−23.2 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−47.3%
11 Dec 2025 → 21 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−53.9%
11 Sept 2025 → 21 Oct 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
+6.7%
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
5.4 bn USD
−6.7% YoY
Net income
102.9 m USD
+691.5% YoY
Diluted EPS
8.59
+759.0% YoY
net / operating
1.9% / 3.7%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue5.5 bn5.5 bn5.7 bn5.8 bn5.6 bn5.4 bn5.4 bn5.4 bn
Cost of revenue4.7 bn4.6 bn4.8 bn4.9 bn4.7 bn4.5 bn4.5 bn4.5 bn
Gross profit879.2 m891.9 m935.8 m919.7 m874.4 m877.9 m860.6 m854.8 m
SG&A614.3 m617.3 m646.1 m654.9 m627.3 m600.6 m623.5 m618.2 m
Operating income193.7 m233.9 m253.0 m107.8 m139.3 m242.6 m203.1 m200.7 m
Depreciation & amortisation—29.3 m28.7 m31.6 m—31.1 m30.9 m31.2 m
Pre-tax income122.7 m167.5 m183.9 m36.2 m62.4 m170.5 m134.4 m131.5 m
Income tax28.0 m39.7 m44.0 m23.0 m19.4 m40.6 m31.4 m28.7 m
Net income94.8 m128.1 m140.5 m13.0 m43.6 m130.2 m103.3 m102.9 m
Diluted EPS7.24 ≈9.6710.821.003.56 ≈10.858.648.59
Operating cash flow212.6 m158.7 m251.6 m ≈155.0 m ≈129.2 m92.4 m62.6 m ≈187.0 m ≈
Capex92.5 m52.2 m71.7 m ≈68.3 m ≈77.8 m84.0 m42.8 m ≈40.3 m ≈
Dividends paid6.2 m6.6 m6.5 m ≈6.4 m ≈6.1 m6.6 m6.5 m ≈6.6 m ≈
Share repurchases32.0 m122.8 m44.5 m ≈82.5 m ≈305.0 m72.4 m0 ≈0 ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 63 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 3.5, median 7.5, max 15.7; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue11.6 bn11.6 bn10.6 bn13.5 bn16.2 bn17.9 bn19.9 bn22.6 bn
Revenue YoY+4.3%−0.0%−8.6%+27.2%+20.3%+10.2%+11.5%+13.2%
Net income157.8 m174.0 m286.5 m552.1 m751.5 m601.6 m498.1 m325.2 m
Net income YoY−26.1%+10.3%+64.7%+92.7%+36.1%−19.9%−17.2%−34.7%
Diluted EPS7.839.3415.5130.1147.1442.7336.8125.24
Diluted EPS YoY−22.3%+19.3%+66.1%+94.1%+56.6%−9.4%−13.9%−31.4%
net %1.4%1.5%2.7%4.1%4.6%3.4%2.5%1.4%
Free cash flow129.0 m179.1 m702.2 m1.1 bn430.4 m4.8 m341.2 m424.5 m

Reported results vs expectations

Loading…

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
32.5 m USD
Financial debt
259.0 m USD
Net debt
226.5 m USD
Equity
2.8 bn USD
Total assets
10.3 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.09x
Current ratio
1.08x
ROE
11.3%
ROA
3.2%
FCF margin
1.9%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
17.9 bn
2024
19.9 bn
2025
22.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
14.9 bn
2024
16.7 bn
2025
18.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
3.0 bn
2024
3.2 bn
2025
3.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
1.9 bn
2024
2.2 bn
2025
2.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
968.6 m
2024
909.1 m
2025
734.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2022verified

EBITDA
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2022derived

Pre-tax income
2023
800.2 m
2024
658.5 m
2025
449.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
198.2 m
2024
161.5 m
2025
126.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
601.6 m
2024
498.1 m
2025
325.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
42.73
2024
36.81
2025
25.24

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
13.7 m
2024
13.2 m
2025
12.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
1.80
2024
1.88
2025
2.00

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
57.2 m
2024
34.4 m
2025
32.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
2.0 bn
2024
2.6 bn
2025
2.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
2.8 bn
2024
3.5 bn
2025
3.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2021verified

Goodwill
2023
1.7 bn
2024
2.1 bn
2025
2.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
7.8 bn
2024
9.8 bn
2025
10.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
499.3 m
2024
738.0 m
2025
732.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
109.4 m
2024
175.3 m
2025
259.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
2.5 bn
2024
3.4 bn
2025
3.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
2.7 bn †
2024
3.0 bn †
2025
2.8 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
190.2 m
2024
586.3 m
2025
694.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
185.4 m
2024
245.1 m
2025
270.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
4.8 m ≈
2024
341.2 m ≈
2025
424.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-366.1 m
2024
-1.3 bn
2025
-671.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
185.2 m
2024
681.1 m
2025
-31.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
25.2 m
2024
25.2 m
2025
25.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
172.8 m
2024
161.6 m
2025
554.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
13.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
11.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
16.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-19.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-34.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-24.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
2.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-31.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-18.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
10.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
24.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
15.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
3.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
1.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
1.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
12.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
3.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
21.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
10.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
6.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
11.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
-619.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
471.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
244.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
226.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
59.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
53 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
13 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
3.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
2.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
8.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
8.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
11.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
0.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
3.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
0.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
14.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
6.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
12.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 68 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

272.81 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 3.3 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
3.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
8.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
12.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
1.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
13.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 23 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 29 Oct 2026
verified 2492derived 203

Score by group

  • Balance sheet44
  • Valuation85
  • Quality57
  • Growth48
  • Returns100

Estimated value range

Low
306.78
USD per share
Mid
445.66
USD per share
High
704.13
USD per share
Price: 272.81 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 63.4% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 38.8% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 306.78 – 704.13 USD.

Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E306.78 – 704.13 (Mid 445.66)
    11 companies used · median multiple 14.1x · quartiles 9.7x – 22.3x
    ABG, AN, CASY, CPRT, KMX, LAD, MUSA, OPLN, PAG, RUSHA, SAH
  • Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate26.28 – 35.34 (Mid 30.15)
    a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations (SIC 5500)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 68/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality21.0%75 (vs peers)14%
Net margin · Quality1.7%41 (vs peers)9%
FCF conversion · Quality59.6%42 (on a fixed band)9%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth11.6%97 (on a fixed band)11%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-18.8%0 (on a fixed band)11%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.3x44 (on a fixed band)6%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation8.6x83 (vs peers)14%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation6.9%87 (on a fixed band)11%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns12.4%100 (on a fixed band)9%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns11.4%100 (on a fixed band)6%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial44/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth48/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality57/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation85/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Group 1 Automotive, Inc (GPI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 22.6 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 13.2%; net margin 1.7%; ROE 12.4%.

The estimated value range is 306.78–704.13 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 445.66 USD, the price of 272.81 USD leaves a potential of 63.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 38.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 68/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 21.0%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 11.6%
  • P/E (TTM): 8.6x
  • FCF yield: 6.9%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 12.4%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 11.4%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -18.8%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA.

Versus the vertical median

Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations (SIC 5500) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 18 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
8.6x
vertical median 14.0x
below median (−38.5%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 6.0x
P/S
0.1x
vertical median 0.4x
below median (−61.7%)
P/B
1.1x
vertical median 1.0x
at median
ROE
12.4%
vertical median 11.8%
above median (+5.0%)
Net margin
1.7%
vertical median 2.6%
below median (−33.7%)
EBIT margin
3.6%
vertical median 4.1%
below median (−12.6%)
Revenue YoY
13.2%
vertical median 4.0%
above median (+230.9%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 0.7x
Dividend yield
0.8%
vertical median 0.5%
above median (+55.3%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
CPRTCopart, Inc.28.8 bn20.016.2%31.8%+0.4%−20% / −38%
CASYCasey’s General Stores, Inc.24.6 bn32.020.0%4.1%+10.2%+17% / +142%
PAGPenske Automotive Group, Inc.13.9 bn15.515.5%2.8%−0.2%+31% / +42%
MUSAMurphy USA Inc.9.1 bn14.199.0%2.9%−4.2%+30% / +36%
KMXCarmax, Inc.7.8 bn26.94.7%1.1%−1.8%+43% / −14%
LADLithia Motors, Inc.6.8 bn9.111.8%2.1%+4.0%−1% / +18%
ANAutonation, Inc.5.9 bn8.830.2%2.6%+3.2%−13% / +36%
OPLNOPENLANE, Inc.4.5 bn24.513.4%9.7%+8.2%+44% / +151%
ABGAsbury Automotive Group, Inc.3.8 bn8.311.8%2.7%+4.7%−10% / −0%
GPIGroup 1 Automotive, Inc3.3 bn8.612.4%1.7%+13.2%−30% / −1%
NXXTNextnrg, Inc.427.3 m——-61.3%+194.7%+108% / −43%
VRMVroom, Inc.36.5 m—-45.0%—−54.2%−66% / unavailable
KXINKaixin Holdings12.2 m—-307.2%-41,788.4%unavailable−96% / −100%
CRMTAmerica’s Car-Mart, Inc.10.5 m—-43.0%-18.6%−7.9%−94% / −98%
JZXNJiuzi Holdings Inc.1.4 m—-90.7%-353.5%+105.9%−86% / −100%
CVNACarvana Co.00.051.5%6.2%+48.6%+4% / +1,138%
RUSHARush Enterprises, Inc.—14.011.8%3.7%−4.7%+33% / +75%
SAHSonic Automotive, Inc.—10.319.4%1.3%+6.5%+2% / +25%
CWHCamping World Holdings, Inc.0—-33.2%-1.6%+4.4%−52% / −74%

1- and 3-year price returns: for GPI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
173.72
Total return -36% · Per year -36%
306.14
Total return 13% · Per year 13%
459.78
Total return 70% · Per year 70%
3 years
193.66
Total return -27% · Per year -10%
381.55
Total return 43% · Per year 13%
625.52
Total return 133% · Per year 33%
5 years
215.89
Total return -17% · Per year -4%
475.54
Total return 80% · Per year 12%
851.00
Total return 219% · Per year 26%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 95.39
  • Net margin± 66.77
  • Annual revenue growth± 51.30
  • Annual dilution± 5.61

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 08 Sept 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results).

In brief

Group 1 Automotive is a large automotive dealer operator in the United States and the United Kingdom that sells new and used vehicles, arranges financing, sells service and insurance contracts and provides maintenance and parts. It matters now because of its acquisition-led expansion, a senior notes offering of 1,250.0 million USD, and uncertainty over tariffs, the UK motor finance review and vehicle demand 13.

SWOT

Strengths

  • A large, geographically diverse dealership network with access to many brands and an integrated model of service, parts and financing 1.
  • Local-density strategy and operational efficiency, supported by standardized processes and technology investment 1.
  • The parts and service business is described as a stable, counter-cyclical source of cash flow 1.

Weaknesses

  • Exclusive dependence on manufacturers for new vehicle inventory and contractual limits on acquisitions 1.
  • Exposure to the UK market, where economic conditions led to goodwill and franchise right impairments 1.
  • Debt rated just below investment grade could raise borrowing costs 1.

Opportunities

  • The Hennessy acquisition could extend the network into new markets and bring density synergies 3.
  • Central bank rate cuts could improve vehicle affordability for consumers 1.
  • Cost reductions in the U.S. announced in April 2026 could improve margins if realized 2.

Threats

  • Tariffs and trade uncertainty could raise vehicle costs and reduce consumer demand 12.
  • The FCA motor finance review could lead to redress costs for the UK business 1.
  • The Middle East conflict and energy volatility could weigh on demand and supply chains 2.

Risks

  • Demand sensitive to economy and credithigh

    Vehicle sales depend on consumer confidence, credit costs and inflation, and a recession could sharply reduce sales 1.

  • Dependence on manufacturershigh

    Changes in manufacturer policy or reduced incentives could affect dealer volumes and profitability 1.

  • UK exposuremedium

    Economic difficulties and the motor finance review could lead to further impairments of goodwill and franchise rights 1.

  • Cost of debt and credit ratingmedium

    A rating below investment grade and SOFR-linked borrowing could raise financing costs and limit market access 1.

  • Supply chains and tariffsmedium

    Production disruptions, aluminum plant fires at suppliers and new duties could reduce vehicle availability and parts supply 12.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If the acquisition integration succeeds and cost savings materialize, margins could rise even in a difficult economy 23.
  • A stable parts and service business could offset volatility in new vehicle sales 1.
  • Lower interest rates could support vehicle demand and financing, especially if affordability improves 1.

What would break the thesis

  • Tariffs and policy uncertainty could raise costs and reduce demand, weighing on margins 12.
  • The UK commission review could bring significant redress costs and pressure on profitability 1.
  • Debt rated below investment grade and exposure to variable rates could make financing more expensive 1.

What to watch

  • Completion of the Hennessy acquisition and effects on leverageQ4 2026
  • Final FCA rules on motor finance redress2026
  • Effect of the proposed Canadian duty and Section 232 tariffsQ3 2026
  • Quarterly results on U.S. cost savings and marginsQ3 2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 08 Sept 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results).

The business

Group 1 Automotive, Inc. is a major operator in automotive retail, selling and leasing new and used cars and light trucks, arranging related financing, selling service and insurance contracts, providing maintenance and repair and selling parts both retail and wholesale 1. As of December 31, 2025, its network included 145 dealerships and 21 collision centers in the U.S. and 109 dealerships and 11 collision centers in the U.K., across 17 U.S. states and 62 UK towns and cities 1. As of September 8, 2026, it operated 249 dealerships, 310 franchises and 32 collision centers offering 37 brands 3.

The strategy rests on four pillars: local market focus, operational excellence, a differentiated parts and service business and disciplined capital allocation, including selective acquisitions and dispositions 1. The parts and service business is presented as a critical driver of profitability and a counter-cyclical complement to vehicle sales 1.

The company depends exclusively on vehicle manufacturers for new vehicle inventory, and franchise agreements and legal frameworks in the U.S. and U.K. shape much of its operations 1. Its debt securities are rated just below investment grade, which makes financing costs sensitive to capital markets 1.

Segments

Parts, service and collision

Parts and service is described as a critical driver of profitability and long-term customer retention, with stable cash flow, especially when vehicle sales decline 1. Collision centers complement the offering 1.

Finance, insurance and contracts (F&I)

F&I revenue comes from fees for arranging financing and selling service and insurance contracts linked to vehicle sales 1. UK commission rules are relevant, as the company could face repayment obligations 1.

Market context

The retail auto market is described as influenced by consumer confidence, credit costs, inflation, fuel prices and trade policy 1. In 2025 the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England cut interest rates, which the filing says may improve affordability, though the effect cannot be predicted with certainty 1.

Financing and service demand depend on credit conditions and household spending in the regions where the company operates 12. The Middle East conflict raised energy prices and complicated supply chains, which could affect demand 2.

Trends

  • Tariffs and trade policyheadwind

    Section 232 tariffs on vehicles and parts remain in force, while the Supreme Court invalidated IEEPA-based tariffs in February 2026; the administration could impose other duties, which adds uncertainty to vehicle costs 2. A proposed additional 50% duty on certain Canadian imports could have effects if it takes effect 2.

  • Electric vehicles and emissions rulesmixed

    Removal of federal EV tax credits and stricter UK standards could change the mix of vehicles sold 12. The proposed Euro 7 standard in the UK could raise costs if adopted 2.

  • UK motor finance reviewheadwind

    The FCA has proposed a redress scheme for customers affected by undisclosed commissions, with primary responsibility on lenders, though dealers could still face contractual recourse 1.

  • Acquisitions and consolidationtailwind

    The company plans to fund the Hennessy dealership asset acquisition with senior notes and revolver borrowings, and integration could bring density efficiencies in local markets 3.

Competitive position

Competition is intense across all business lines: other franchised dealers, auto brokers, leasing companies, online platforms and, for parts and service, regional chains and independent shops 1. The company has no cost advantage in buying new vehicles, as rivals access the same manufacturer terms 1.

Customer choice is driven by location, service, price, selection, online capabilities and reputation; in service, timeliness and technician competence matter 1. Direct-to-consumer EV sales by some manufacturers could reduce the role of traditional dealers 1.

  • Other franchised dealers and multi-location operators

    Direct competition for new and used sales in the same local markets 1.

  • Online platforms and auto brokers

    Compete through referrals and brokered sales, and direct EV sales by manufacturers could reduce dealer share 1.

  • Regional and national service chains

    Offer selected parts and services at prices potentially below the group's 1.

  • Third-party financial institutions

    Offer their own F&I products, which could reduce profits from F&I sales 1.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 17 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 29 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

  • Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
  • Current report28 Oct 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report21 Oct 2026
    Acquisition or disposition of assets · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report24 Sept 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report22 Sept 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report22 Sept 2026
    Material agreement · Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report10 Sept 2026
    Material agreement · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report08 Sept 2026
    Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report11 Aug 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report30 Jul 2026

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Group 1 Automotive, Inc. · 13 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Group 1 Automotive, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Group 1 Automotive, Inc. · 08 Sept 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.