olivLaw · US equity research
Murphy USA Inc. MUSA
Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations · SIC 5500 · Vertical: Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations (SIC 5500)
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) runs a chain of fuel and convenience stores, most located near Walmart stores, using a low-cost, high-volume model. It operated 1,800 stores at the end of fiscal 2025 and reported revenue of 19.4 billion USD, and in the first half of 2026 earnings rose strongly as fuel margins widened.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) stock was 502.42 USD (−1.36% on the day), with market capitalisation 9.1 bn USD, P/E 14.1 on diluted EPS of 35.67 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.51%, beta -0.04, 52-week range 356.57–622.78 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 6.9 bn USD (+34.8% YoY), net income of 176.0 m USD (+35.5% YoY), diluted EPS 9.59 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 39.1
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 505.30 – 554.30
- below the lower band · %B -0.06 · band width 9.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 521.89 / 517.52
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -2.90 / 0.48
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −1.8% | −1.1% | −0.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −13.5% | −0.5% | −13.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | −12.8% | +4.4% | −17.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | +24.5% | +12.3% | +12.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +37.0% | +13.5% | +23.4 pp | −5.6% |
| 3 years | +32.6% | +76.4% | −43.8 pp | −0.4% |
| 5 years | +190.1% | +63.7% | +126.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.7 bn | 4.5 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.1 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.8 bn | 6.8 bn | 6.9 bn |
| SG&A | 54.2 m | 60.1 m | 50.9 m | 55.3 m | 65.2 m | 56.6 m | 60.5 m | 59.6 m |
| Operating income | 199.0 m | 88.0 m | 219.2 m | 201.8 m | 209.5 m | 205.2 m | 304.9 m | 260.5 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 67.2 m | 68.2 m | 66.0 m | 69.9 m | 72.7 m | 72.1 m | 72.2 m | 75.1 m |
| Interest expense | 22.9 m | 25.4 m | 27.8 m | 29.1 m | 28.6 m | 29.0 m | 29.3 m | 28.4 m |
| Pre-tax income | 177.8 m | 61.9 m | 192.5 m | 173.4 m | 181.4 m | 176.2 m | 277.6 m | 233.6 m |
| Income tax | 35.3 m | 8.7 m | 46.9 m | 43.5 m | 39.5 m | 39.9 m | 68.5 m | 57.6 m |
| Net income | 142.5 m | 53.2 m | 145.6 m | 129.9 m | 141.9 m | 136.3 m | 209.1 m | 176.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 6.96 ≈ | 2.63 | 7.36 | 6.76 | 7.53 ≈ | 7.28 | 11.27 | 9.59 |
| Operating cash flow | 248.7 m | 128.5 m | 255.1 m ≈ | 184.8 m ≈ | 245.5 m | 320.0 m | 235.0 m ≈ | 348.1 m ≈ |
| Capex | 127.0 m | 87.8 m | 118.0 m ≈ | 117.1 m ≈ | 116.7 m | 98.3 m | 111.7 m ≈ | 154.4 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 9.7 m | 9.8 m | 9.8 m ≈ | 10.1 m ≈ | 11.8 m | 11.7 m | 11.8 m ≈ | 11.9 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 128.0 m | 150.0 m | 213.8 m ≈ | 219.2 m ≈ | 66.9 m | 70.5 m | 82.3 m ≈ | 156.2 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 53 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 8.9, median 13.6, max 23.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 14.4 bn | 14.0 bn | 11.3 bn | 17.4 bn | 23.4 bn | 21.5 bn | 20.2 bn | 19.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +12.0% | −2.3% | −19.7% | +54.1% | +35.1% | −8.2% | −6.0% | −4.2% |
| Net income | 213.6 m | 154.8 m | 386.1 m | 396.9 m | 672.9 m | 556.8 m | 502.5 m | 470.6 m |
| Net income YoY | −12.9% | −27.5% | +149.4% | +2.8% | +69.5% | −17.3% | −9.8% | −6.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 6.48 | 4.86 | 13.08 | 14.92 | 28.10 | 25.49 | 24.11 | 24.10 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −4.4% | −25.0% | +169.1% | +14.1% | +88.3% | −9.3% | −5.4% | −0.0% |
| net % | 1.5% | 1.1% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| Free cash flow | 194.4 m | 108.5 m | 333.0 m | 462.7 m | 689.4 m | 448.4 m | 389.5 m | 374.3 m |
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 28.9 m USD
- Financial debt
- 19.0 m USD
- Net debt
- -9.9 m USD
- Equity
- 623.5 m USD
- Total assets
- 4.7 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.03x
- Current ratio
- 0.80x
- ROE
- 64.3%
- ROA
- 10.2%
- FCF margin
- 1.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11.3 bn | 17.4 bn | 23.4 bn | 21.5 bn | 20.2 bn | 19.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 171.1 m | 193.6 m | 232.5 m | 240.5 m | 235.4 m | 231.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 559.0 m | 604.0 m | 968.4 m | 826.0 m | 742.9 m | 718.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 161.0 m | 212.6 m | 220.4 m | 228.7 m | 248.0 m | 276.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 720.0 m ≈ | 816.6 m ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 990.9 m ≈ | 995.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 51.2 m | 82.4 m | 85.3 m | 98.5 m | 97.1 m | 110.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 509.1 m | 521.9 m | 883.8 m | 734.4 m | 651.6 m | 609.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 123.0 m | 125.0 m | 210.9 m | 177.6 m | 149.1 m | 138.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 386.1 m | 396.9 m | 672.9 m | 556.8 m | 502.5 m | 470.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 13.08 | 14.92 | 28.10 | 25.49 | 24.11 | 24.10 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 29.5 m | 26.6 m | 24.0 m | 21.8 m | 20.8 m | 19.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.25 | 1.04 | 1.27 | 1.55 | 1.79 | 2.15 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 163.6 m | 256.4 m | 60.5 m | 117.8 m | 47.0 m | 28.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 168.8 m | 195.7 m | 281.7 m | 336.7 m | 268.5 m | 276.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 279.1 m | 292.3 m | 319.1 m | 341.2 m | 401.6 m | 413.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 625.2 m | 767.8 m | 726.8 m | 826.5 m | 748.1 m | 747.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 0 | 328.0 m | 328.0 m | 328.0 m | 328.0 m | 328.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 34.6 m | 140.7 m | 140.4 m | 139.8 m | 139.5 m | 139.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 2.7 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 471.1 m | 660.3 m | 839.2 m | 834.7 m | 874.4 m | 865.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 51.2 m | 15.0 m | 15.0 m | 15.0 m | 15.7 m | 19.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 531.1 m | 675.3 m | 854.2 m | 872.8 m | 947.9 m | 929.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.9 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.7 bn | 4.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 784.1 m † | 807.2 m † | 640.7 m † | 828.9 m † | 840.1 m † | 623.5 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 563.7 m | 737.4 m | 994.7 m | 784.0 m | 847.6 m | 813.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 230.7 m | 274.7 m | 305.3 m | 335.6 m | 458.1 m | 439.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 333.0 m ≈ | 462.7 m ≈ | 689.4 m ≈ | 448.4 m ≈ | 389.5 m ≈ | 374.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -224.3 m | -914.2 m | -319.3 m | -323.6 m | -445.8 m | -436.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -456.1 m | 269.6 m | -871.3 m | -403.1 m | -472.6 m | -396.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 6.9 m | 27.3 m | 29.9 m | 33.4 m | 36.8 m | 41.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 399.6 m | 355.0 m | 806.4 m | 333.2 m | 445.7 m | 649.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 66 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 9.1 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet81
- Valuation67
- Quality92
- Growth0
- Returns80
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 319.53 – 781.99 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)448.45 – 672.75 (Mid 536.03)WACC 9.3% · starting FCFF 755.5 m USD · terminal value share of EV 72%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -7.7%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA352.99 – 665.66 (Mid 354.13)3 companies used · median multiple 4.9x · quartiles 4.9x – 9.4xABG, CWH, OPLN
- Peers: P/E319.53 – 781.99 (Mid 497.81)11 companies used · median multiple 14.0x · quartiles 9.0x – 21.9xABG, AN, CASY, CPRT, GPI, KMX, LAD, OPLN, PAG, RUSHA, SAH
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate28.25 – 38.00 (Mid 32.41)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 66/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 127.7% | 100 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 2.9% | 71 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 100.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -6.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -5.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.1x | 100 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 8.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.9x | 6 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 14.1x | 42 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 7.0x | 72 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 7.3% | 92 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.7% | 66 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 7.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet81/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality92/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns80/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation67/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
MURPHY USA INC. (MUSA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 19.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -4.2%; net margin 2.9%; ROE 99.0%; net debt/EBITDA -0.1x.
The estimated value range is 352.99–672.75 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 497.81 USD, the price of 502.42 USD leaves a potential of -0.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -0.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 66/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 127.7%
- Net margin: 2.9%
- FCF conversion: 100.6%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -0.1x
- Interest coverage: 8.5x
- EV/EBITDA: 7.0x
- FCF yield: 7.3%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 7.1%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -6.1%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -5.0%
- Current ratio: 0.9x
Versus the vertical median
Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations (SIC 5500) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 18 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPRTCopart, Inc. | 30.2 bn | 21.0 | 16.2% | 31.8% | +0.4% | −16% / −35% |
| CASYCasey’s General Stores, Inc. | 24.9 bn | 32.5 | 20.0% | 4.1% | +10.2% | +18% / +145% |
| PAGPenske Automotive Group, Inc. | 13.9 bn | 15.5 | 15.5% | 2.8% | −0.2% | +31% / +42% |
| MUSAMurphy USA Inc. | 9.1 bn | 14.1 | 99.0% | 2.9% | −4.2% | +37% / +33% |
| KMXCarmax, Inc. | 7.8 bn | 26.9 | 4.7% | 1.1% | −1.8% | +43% / −14% |
| LADLithia Motors, Inc. | 6.8 bn | 9.1 | 11.8% | 2.1% | +4.0% | −1% / +18% |
| ANAutonation, Inc. | 5.9 bn | 8.8 | 30.2% | 2.6% | +3.2% | −13% / +36% |
| OPLNOPENLANE, Inc. | 4.5 bn | 22.8 | 13.1% | 9.2% | +8.2% | +44% / +151% |
| ABGAsbury Automotive Group, Inc. | 3.8 bn | 8.3 | 11.8% | 2.7% | +4.7% | −10% / −0% |
| GPIGroup 1 Automotive, Inc | 3.3 bn | 8.6 | 12.4% | 1.7% | +13.2% | −32% / −3% |
| NXXTNextnrg, Inc. | 427.3 m | — | — | -61.3% | +194.7% | +108% / −43% |
| VRMVroom, Inc. | 36.5 m | — | -45.0% | — | −54.2% | −66% / unavailable |
| KXINKaixin Holdings | 12.2 m | — | -307.2% | -41,788.4% | unavailable | −96% / −100% |
| CRMTAmerica’s Car-Mart, Inc. | 10.5 m | — | -43.0% | -18.6% | −7.9% | −94% / −98% |
| JZXNJiuzi Holdings Inc. | 1.4 m | — | -90.7% | -353.5% | +105.9% | −86% / −100% |
| CVNACarvana Co. | 0 | 0.0 | 51.5% | 6.2% | +48.6% | +4% / +1,138% |
| RUSHARush Enterprises, Inc. | — | 14.0 | 11.8% | 3.7% | −4.7% | +33% / +75% |
| SAHSonic Automotive, Inc. | — | 10.3 | 19.4% | 1.3% | +6.5% | +2% / +25% |
| CWHCamping World Holdings, Inc. | 0 | — | -33.2% | -1.6% | +4.4% | −52% / −74% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MUSA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 275.95 Total return -45% · Per year -45% | 490.33 Total return -2% · Per year -2% | 741.94 Total return 48% · Per year 48% |
| 3 years | 219.12 Total return -55% · Per year -24% | 442.52 Total return -11% · Per year -4% | 741.94 Total return 49% · Per year 14% |
| 5 years | 173.99 Total return -64% · Per year -18% | 399.38 Total return -18% · Per year -4% | 741.94 Total return 51% · Per year 9% |
- Exit P/E± 110.63
- Net margin± 77.44
- Annual revenue growth± 69.94
- Annual dilution± 6.51
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (30 Oct 2026), 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) runs a chain of fuel and convenience stores, most located near Walmart stores, using a low-cost, high-volume model. It operated 1,800 stores at the end of fiscal 2025 and reported revenue of 19.4 billion USD, and in the first half of 2026 earnings rose strongly as fuel margins widened 123.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Fuel margin volatilityhigh
Fuel margins depend on wholesale prices that change daily. The company typically does not hedge this exposure, and a sharp reversal in prices could reduce results 12.
- Indebtedness and credit ratingmedium
Some of the company's notes carry ratings below investment grade, and a further downgrade could raise borrowing costs and limit access to funding 1.
- Dependence on a single merchandise suppliermedium
Most convenience merchandise comes from one wholesale distributor. If that relationship were disrupted, store supply could be affected 1.
- Dependence on land and agreements with Walmartmedium
Some stores operate on land leased from Walmart, and Walmart's rights over certain properties can limit the company's transactions 1.
- Data security and regulationlow
The company handles customer personal and payment data. A security breach or failure to comply with regulation could bring sanctions and harm its reputation 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If fuel margins stay high and volumes grow, the company could exceed the profit outlook it has described for 2026 23.
- A low-cost model and ownership of most land provide a buffer in volatile price periods, which could support investment and dividends 1.
- A clear organic growth programme of new stores and rebuilds could widen the revenue base over the medium term 12.
What would break the thesis
- If oil prices fall sharply, fuel margins could compress quickly, reversing part of the recent gains 12.
- Debt and ratings below investment grade could limit financial flexibility if market conditions worsen 1.
- Rising operating costs, including payment fees and staff expenses, could reduce profit margins if not offset by volume growth 12.
What to watch
- Full-year fuel margin versus the 35 cpg second-half assumptionQ3 2026
- Pace of NTI store openings and completion of raze-and-rebuilds against the guided range2026
- Store operating expenses excluding payment fees and rent against the low end of guidancenext 10-K
- Dividend payments and share repurchases relative to cash flow and funding capacityQ1 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (30 Oct 2026), 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
The company markets motor fuel and convenience merchandise through its own stores under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express and QuickChek brands in 27 states across the Southeast, Southwest, Midwest and Northeast of the US. It also sells fuel to unbranded wholesale customers through terminals and pipeline positions it owns or accesses 1. It was spun off from Murphy Oil Corporation in 2013 and reports one segment, Marketing 1.
The model relies on competitive fuel prices, high customer volume and small-format stores with lower capital, maintenance and utility requirements than many competitors, and most sites are owned, so no rent is paid on them 1. Its fuel supply chain, with access to multiple suppliers and terminals, is a central part of its competitive advantage 1.
Medium-term strategy focuses on organic growth through new-to-industry (NTI) stores and raze-and-rebuilds, on broadening merchandise into food and beverage, on cost control, and on returning capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks 12.
Market context
The company operates in the US retail fuel and convenience store market, which is large, highly fragmented and competitive, giving larger chain operators a scale advantage 1. Demand is sensitive to gasoline prices, and cost-conscious consumers look for low-priced fuel 1. Crude oil price volatility, which ranged from 55 to 81 dollars per barrel in 2025, directly affects margins 1.
In the second quarter of 2026, WTI averaged 96 dollars per barrel, against 65 dollars in the same period of 2025, which increased fuel margin volatility 2. The company described the second quarter of 2026 as strong, with higher fuel margins and rising volumes 23.
Trends
- Crude oil price volatilitymixed
Crude prices shape the cost of purchased fuel and pump prices. Recent volatility lifted margins in the second half of the year, but a sharp reversal could compress margins if prices fall quickly 12.
- Higher renewable fuel credit pricestailwind
Prices for ethanol RINs rose sharply in 2026, supporting revenue from other operations. The company notes its model does not depend on this revenue and that changes are usually offset by costs 12.
- Payment fee pressureheadwind
Higher retail fuel prices raised payment fees, which accounted for about two-thirds of the rise in operating expenses in the second quarter of 2026. If pump prices stay high, this pressure could persist 2.
- Store network expansiontailwind
The company plans 45 to 55 NTI stores and up to 30 raze-and-rebuilds in 2026, and had 36 locations under construction at the end of the second quarter of 2026 12. If execution keeps pace, network growth could support revenue over the medium term 1.
- Consumer price sensitivitymixed
If fuel prices rise or the economy weakens, lower fuel consumption could reduce volumes and store traffic. The company argues its competitive prices can attract new customers in such conditions 1.
Competitive position
The company competes in a fragmented market with large fuel and convenience chains as well as local operators, and its main advantage is scale and low operating cost 1. Competitive pressure is visible especially in northeastern US markets, where the company recorded impairments on some assets 1.
Its differentiation rests on store locations near Walmart, competitive fuel prices and an own fuel supply chain that would be hard for a rival to replicate 1. The analysed sources do not provide a detailed list of publicly traded competitors 1.
- Regional fuel and convenience store operators
Competitors described generically in the source, without named companies in the analysed texts
- Local independent fuel station operators
Competition in fragmented markets, including small chains and independent operators
- Supermarket and hypermarket chains with fuel stations
Indirect rivals that draw the same customer traffic, according to the source
- Convenience store chains in the northeastern US
Competition present in markets where QuickChek operates
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- This Fund Trimmed Murphy USA (MUSA) Amid Fuel Margin StrengthsYahoo Finance — News · 22 Sept 2026 · EN
- Murphy USA (MUSA) Delivers Robust Second-Quarter Earnings on Surging Fuel MarginsYahoo Finance — News · 06 Sept 2026 · EN
- Murphy USA to trial automated White Castle kiosksYahoo Finance — News · 24 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 22 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 30 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report30 Oct 2026
- Current report28 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report22 Oct 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report02 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report13 Aug 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report27 May 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report12 May 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report12 May 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Murphy USA Inc. · 18 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Murphy USA Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Murphy USA Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.