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olivLaw · US equity research

Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. GRNT

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas · SIC 1311 · Vertical: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311)

4.63USD−9.39% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Granite Ridge Resources is an energy company holding assets in six unconventional basins across the United States, combining operated partnerships with non-operated stakes. The company aims for durable growth, with an exit from intensive investment if production and oil prices support cash flow, according to and. Production reached 32,044 Boe per day in the second quarter of 2026, and revenues in 2025 were 450.3 million USD.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. (GRNT) stock was 4.63 USD (−9.39% on the day), with market capitalisation 610.7 m USD, dividend yield 9.50%, beta 0.63, 52-week range 4.21–6.11 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 149.3 m USD (+36.7% YoY), net income of 30.0 m USD (+19.6% YoY), diluted EPS 0.23 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
610.7 m USD
shares as of 03 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -0.21 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-4.58%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
9.50%
DPS 12m 0.44
Beta (2y)
0.63
Volatility (1y) 44%
52-week range
4.216.11

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
33.6
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
4.53 – 6.22
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.06 · band width 31.4%
SMA 50 / 200
5.04 / 5.08
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.10 / 0.20
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+2.7%−1.1%+3.8 pp—
3 months0.0%−0.5%+0.5 pp—
6 months−18.8%+4.4%−23.2 pp—
Year to date−1.5%+12.3%−13.8 pp—
1 year−12.3%+13.5%−25.9 pp+18.1%
3 years−27.0%+76.4%−103.4 pp+17.3%
5 years−52.9%+63.7%−116.6 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−29.8%
05 May 2026 → 29 Sept 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−58.8%
25 Oct 2022 → 07 Jan 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−14.0%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
149.3 m USD
+36.7% YoY
Net income
30.0 m USD
+19.6% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.23
+21.1% YoY
net / operating
20.1% / 26.1%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue94.1 m106.3 m122.9 m109.2 m112.7 m105.5 m128.3 m149.3 m
Operating income24.7 m-6.9 m42.5 m20.7 m19.6 m-36.4 m14.8 m39.0 m
Interest expense4.8 m4.7 m5.0 m5.9 m6.1 m8.5 m10.3 m11.1 m
Pre-tax income13.4 m-16.3 m12.7 m32.9 m19.3 m-32.7 m-60.7 m38.9 m
Income tax4.3 m-4.6 m2.9 m7.8 m4.8 m-7.7 m-13.6 m8.9 m
Net income9.1 m-11.6 m9.8 m25.1 m14.5 m-25.1 m-47.0 m30.0 m
Diluted EPS0.07-0.09 ≈0.070.190.11-0.19 ≈-0.360.23
Operating cash flow74.7 m ≈68.2 m76.1 m78.0 m ≈77.8 m ≈64.5 m58.3 m55.6 m ≈
Dividends paid14.4 m ≈14.4 m14.4 m14.4 m ≈14.4 m ≈14.4 m14.5 m14.5 m ≈
Share repurchases0 ≈24.0 k16.0 k0 ≈0 ≈030.0 k0 ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year202020212022202320242025
Revenue87.1 m290.2 m497.4 m394.1 m380.0 m450.3 m
Revenue YoYunavailable+233.2%+71.4%−20.8%−3.6%+18.5%
Net income-23.9 m108.5 m262.3 m81.1 m18.8 m24.4 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailable+141.9%−69.1%−76.9%+29.8%
Diluted EPS-0.180.821.970.610.140.18
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailable+140.2%−69.0%−77.0%+28.6%
net %-27.5%37.4%52.7%20.6%4.9%5.4%
Free cash flowunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
14.8 m USD
Financial debt
385.3 m USD
Net debt
370.5 m USD
Equity
605.8 m USD
Total assets
1.2 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.64x
Current ratio
1.25x
ROE
3.9%
ROA
2.2%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
394.1 m
2024
380.0 m
2025
450.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
90.6 m
2024
59.3 m
2025
46.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
5.3 m
2024
18.5 m
2025
25.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
105.6 m
2024
25.0 m
2025
32.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
24.5 m
2024
6.2 m
2025
7.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
81.1 m
2024
18.8 m
2025
24.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.61
2024
0.14
2025
0.18

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
133.1 m
2024
130.2 m
2025
130.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.44
2024
0.44
2025
0.44

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
10.7 m
2024
9.4 m
2025
14.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
151.6 m
2024
135.2 m
2025
118.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Nov 2022verified

Total assets
2023
927.1 m
2024
1.0 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
20.0 m
2024
26.4 m
2025
21.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
—
2024
0
2025
17.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
110.0 m
2024
205.0 m
2025
367.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 07 May 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
62.1 m
2024
101.8 m
2025
95.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
255.5 m
2024
401.1 m
2025
562.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
671.6 m †
2024
635.4 m †
2025
605.8 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
302.9 m
2024
275.7 m
2025
296.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified

Investing cash flow
2023
-356.7 m
2024
-310.8 m
2025
-409.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
13.4 m
2024
33.7 m
2025
118.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
58.6 m
2024
57.5 m
2025
57.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
35.4 m
2024
442.0 k
2025
16.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
18.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-3.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
38.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-21.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
29.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-54.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
28.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-55.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
7.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-5.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
unavailable
input data missing

Returns

ROE
-4.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
-2.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
3.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
3.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
insufficient data
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
418.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
1.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
256.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
unavailable
input data missing
Free cash flow
unavailable
input data missing
FCF conversion
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
610.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
1.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-4.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
1.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
27.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
2.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
9.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
9.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Risk

Altman Z
0.97
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

4.63 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 610.7 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
610.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
-4.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-5.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
18.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
9.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

24/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 03 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 06 Aug 2026
verified 568derived 51

Score by group

50% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
5.78
USD per share
Mid
6.63
USD per share
High
7.78
USD per share
Price: 4.63 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 43.2% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 30.2% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 5.78 – 7.78 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)5.78 – 7.78 (Mid 6.63)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality3.3%19 (vs peers)21%
Net margin · Quality-5.6%27 (vs peers)13%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-3.3%0 (on a fixed band)17%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-55.0%0 (on a fixed band)17%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet1.0x0 (on a fixed band)13%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.0x19 (on a fixed band)8%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns9.5%100 (on a fixed band)13%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet7/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality22/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

GRANITE RIDGE RESOURCES, INC. (GRNT). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 450.3 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 18.5%; net margin -5.6%; ROE -4.6%.

The estimated value range is 5.78–7.78 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 6.63 USD, the price of 4.63 USD leaves a potential of 43.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 30.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 9.5%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: 3.3%
  • Net margin: -5.6%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -3.3%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -55.0%
  • Interest coverage: 1.0x
  • Current ratio: 1.0x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 10.5x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 5.3x
P/S
1.2x
vertical median 1.6x
below median (−24.8%)
P/B
1.1x
vertical median 1.4x
below median (−19.7%)
ROE
-4.6%
vertical median 10.9%
below median (−141.9%)
Net margin
-5.6%
vertical median 8.2%
below median (−167.6%)
EBIT margin
7.5%
vertical median 14.9%
below median (−49.8%)
Revenue YoY
18.5%
vertical median -1.9%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 0.9x
Dividend yield
9.5%
vertical median 2.4%
above median (+303.2%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
TTETotalEnergies SE199.6 bn15.711.3%6.5%−6.2%+38% / +33%
PBRPetrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro SA145.9 bn33.810.9%8.2%−10.7%+56% / +28%
EOGEog Resources, Inc.77.1 bn11.422.5%25.4%−4.5%+36% / +19%
OXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation57.3 bn8.618.9%33.7%−1.9%+37% / −3%
FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc.51.1 bn25.05.3%11.0%+35.8%+20% / +18%
DVNDevon Energy Corp48.5 bn10.511.5%16.7%+7.8%+19% / −2%
EQTEqt Corporation32.9 bn12.510.9%28.4%+63.9%−14% / +31%
EXEExpand Energy Corporation20.2 bn7.614.6%19.8%+186.3%−28% / +9%
PRPermian Resources Corporation18.8 bn14.911.5%21.5%+1.3%+55% / +71%
OVVOvintiv Inc.16.8 bn12.712.1%12.8%−2.7%+53% / +41%
APAApa Corporation15.6 bn9.425.9%—unavailable+78% / +24%
ARAntero Resources Corporation11.5 bn8.417.6%21.7%+22.0%+3% / +58%
MTDRMatador Resources Company6.2 bn8.612.8%19.9%+5.5%+19% / −13%
MURMurphy Oil Corporation5.2 bn11.28.9%15.0%−10.2%+12% / −16%
CRCCalifornia Resources Corp4.3 bn—-15.5%-18.1%+14.7%+1% / −6%
CRKComstock Resources, Inc.3.9 bn7.621.1%23.3%+77.0%−50% / +36%
PARRPar Pacific Holdings, Inc.3.5 bn3.650.9%9.8%−6.4%+53% / +103%
TBNTamboran Resources Corporation982.4 m—-4.8%—unavailable+18% / unavailable
REPXRiley Exploration Permian, Inc.948.6 m9.216.8%17.3%−4.4%+57% / +74%
DECDiversified Energy Company942.7 m16.711.0%4.9%+141.5%−11% / +1,434%
TTITETRA Technologies, Inc.917.3 m100.82.5%1.4%+5.3%−20% / +31%
AESIAtlas Energy Solutions Inc.843.0 m—-12.1%-13.0%+3.7%−22% / −61%
GRNTGranite Ridge Resources, Inc.610.7 m—-4.6%-5.6%+18.5%−12% / −27%
EGYVaalco Energy Inc568.0 m—-24.4%-31.1%−25.0%+51% / +16%
WTIW&T Offshore, Inc.497.2 m——-8.4%−4.5%+81% / −4%

1- and 3-year price returns: for GRNT from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    Granite Ridge Resources is an energy company holding assets in six unconventional basins across the United States, combining operated partnerships with non-operated stakes. The company aims for durable growth, with an exit from intensive investment if production and oil prices support cash flow, according to 1 and 3. Production reached 32,044 Boe per day in the second quarter of 2026 3, and revenues in 2025 were 450.3 million USD 1.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • Diversified portfolio across six basins and several operators, reducing the risk of any single project or area 1.
    • Relatively low leverage and an available credit line give financial flexibility 3.
    • The operated partnership platform gives control over capital and access to unmarketed opportunities 13.

    Weaknesses

    • Reliance on third-party operators to execute development and market production 1.
    • Per-unit operating costs rose significantly in the second quarter of 2026 3.
    • Realized gas and oil prices stayed below market benchmarks because of negative differentials 2.

    Opportunities

    • If oil prices stay high, cash flow could support dividends and lower investment needs in 2027 3.
    • Inventory acquired through partnerships could add attractive locations at lower entry costs 3.
    • Production growth in the Permian and Appalachian basins could strengthen the company's position in its highest-potential areas 3.

    Threats

    • Volatile oil and gas prices can reduce revenues and the capacity to finance investment 1.
    • A major operator or partner could face financial difficulty, affecting the company's revenues 1.
    • Distribution of shares by the majority holder could change governance and investor perception 3.

    Risks

    • Price volatilityhigh

      Oil and gas prices could fall sharply, reducing revenues, cash flow and the ability to meet credit covenants 1. Hedging reduces but does not eliminate this risk 1.

    • Dependence on third-party operatorshigh

      The company does not control many operational decisions, and operator difficulties could delay development or reduce production 1.

    • Customer concentrationmedium

      A small number of operators generate a significant part of revenues, and losing one could affect short-term results 1.

    • Operating costsmedium

      Rising costs for water handling and equipment could compress margins, especially if prices fall 3.

    • Distribution of shares by the majority holderlow

      Distributing shares could change the governance structure and influence trading liquidity, depending on timing and size 3.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • Higher production and newly added inventory support the growth plan, and high oil prices could improve cash flow 23.
    • The operated partnership model could generate attractive returns and access to locations with lower entry costs 13.
    • Low leverage and a quarterly dividend offer a stable financial base if the market stays favourable 3.

    What would break the thesis

    • Dependence on volatile oil and gas prices could make revenues unstable, especially if prices decline 1.
    • Rising operating costs and negative differentials could compress margins even in a high-price environment 23.
    • Distribution of shares by the majority holder could create pressure on the share price and change the company's governance 3.

    What to watch

    • Quarterly results and delivery against production and capital guidanceQ3 2026
    • Timing and size of the majority holder's share distributionQ3 2026
    • Trend in operating costs per BoeQ4 2026
    • Progress toward the targeted free cash flow inflection2027

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    Granite Ridge describes its model as an alternative to energy private equity: the company invests in operated partnerships, where it controls most of the capital at risk and the development strategy, and in minority stakes in assets run by third-party operators 1. Assets are located in the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken, Haynesville, Denver-Julesburg and Appalachian basins 1. The company targets full-cycle returns and low leverage while paying quarterly dividends 13.

    Most revenue comes from oil, since oil sales make up the largest part of receipts, with natural gas completing the portfolio 1. Operating partners typically market production on the company's behalf, so sales depend on a few important operators 1. The company uses derivative instruments to hedge part of production and reduce exposure to price declines 12.

    In the first half of 2026 the company invested in development and acquisitions, brought new wells online and added undeveloped inventory, especially in the Permian and Appalachian basins 3. Guidance for 2026 includes total capital expenditures between 345 and 385 million USD 3.

    Segments

    Permian Basin

    The Permian is the company's main area, holding most proved reserves and the wells completed in 2025 1. Here the company concentrates a large share of investment and oil production 13.

    Eagle Ford, Bakken, Haynesville, DJ and Appalachian

    The remaining assets are spread across smaller or more diverse basins, from oil in the Bakken to gas in the Haynesville and liquids in the Appalachian 1. These areas diversify the portfolio by geography and operator 1.

    Operated partnerships

    Operated partnerships are a platform through which the company funds development on acreage brought by partners, keeping control of capital and drilling schedules 13. The company presents them as its principal differentiator 3.

    Market context

    Oil and natural gas prices are volatile and can directly affect revenues, cash flow and investment plans 1. In the second quarter of 2026 the average NYMEX oil price was 95.65 USD per barrel, 48% above the same period a year earlier 2. Gas prices realized were lower, against an average NYMEX price of 2.95 USD per Mcf 2.

    Differentials to the NYMEX benchmark stayed negative, meaning prices the company receives are below the benchmark 2. Changes in these differentials, like price moves, could influence margins if the market shifts 12.

    Trends

    • High oil prices in 2026mixed

      The average oil price rose significantly versus 2025, supporting quarterly revenues, although hedging reduced part of the gain 2. If prices stay high, cash flow could support dividends and investment 3.

    • Rising operating costsheadwind

      Per-unit operating costs rose in the second quarter of 2026, linked to water handling and surface equipment 3. If this continues, margins could be compressed 3.

    • Production growth through acquisitions and new wellstailwind

      The company added inventory through acquisitions and brought more wells online than in the prior year, supporting production growth 3. Continuing this strategy could support the 2027 objectives 3.

    • Changes in the majority shareholder's holdingmixed

      The majority shareholder intends to distribute part of its shares in 2026, which could change the company's governance model if ownership falls below half 3. The effect depends on the timing and size of the distribution 3.

    Competitive position

    The company operates in a highly competitive sector, where other oil and gas producers, some with far greater resources, compete for acreage and projects 1. Larger competitors can more easily absorb regulatory changes and pay more for assets 1.

    Granite Ridge focuses on smaller transactions and partnerships with private operators, where it says competition is lower 1. Access to opportunities still depends on the ability to evaluate and select properties quickly 1.

    • Public and private operators in the company's basins

      The sources do not name direct rivals but note that partner operators include large public companies and private firms 1.

    • Companies with greater exploration resources

      The company notes some competitors have substantially greater resources and may pay more for properties 1.

    • Large integrated energy companies

      Integrated competitors may absorb regulatory changes more easily, which could affect the company's competitive position 1.

    • Other buyers of undeveloped inventory

      Competition for target properties is increasing, which could make future acquisitions more expensive 1.

    News & filings

    In the press

    The latest news item in our archive is from 08 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 09 Sept 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. · 06 Mar 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.