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olivLaw · US equity research

VAALCO Energy, Inc. EGY

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas · SIC 1311 · Vertical: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311)

5.40USD−3.74% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

VAALCO Energy is an independent energy company headquartered in Houston that produces crude oil and natural gas from African assets, mainly in Gabon and Egypt. In 2026 it completed its exit from Canadian operations and is growing production in Côte d'Ivoire, where Baobab drilling has restarted, so its operational progress in the coming period is relevant to investors.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, VAALCO Energy, Inc. (EGY) stock was 5.40 USD (−3.74% on the day), with market capitalisation 568.0 m USD, dividend yield 4.63%, beta 0.58, 52-week range 3.37–6.67 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 135.2 m USD (+39.5% YoY), net income of 42.4 m USD (+406.5% YoY), diluted EPS 0.39 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
568.0 m USD
shares as of 04 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -1.06 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-19.68%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
4.63%
DPS 12m 0.25
Beta (2y)
0.58
Volatility (1y) 46%
52-week range
3.376.67

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
32.8
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
5.58 – 6.74
below the lower band · %B -0.16 · band width 18.8%
SMA 50 / 200
6.04 / 5.66
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.03 / 0.07
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−6.7%−1.1%−5.6 pp—
3 months+4.9%−0.5%+5.3 pp—
6 months−10.6%+4.4%−15.0 pp—
Year to date+48.4%+12.3%+36.0 pp—
1 year+42.5%+13.5%+28.9 pp+19.9%
3 years+20.5%+76.4%−55.9 pp+8.7%
5 years+28.3%+63.7%−35.4 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−26.1%
04 May 2026 → 26 Jun 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−64.0%
21 Jun 2022 → 08 Apr 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
+5.1%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
135.2 m USD
+39.5% YoY
Net income
42.4 m USD
+406.5% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.39
+387.5% YoY
net / operating
31.4% / 32.3%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue140.3 m121.7 m110.3 m96.9 m61.0 m91.0 m62.6 m135.2 m
Operating income44.1 m38.5 m26.2 m17.2 m898.0 k-64.9 m-16.1 m43.6 m
Depreciation & amortisation47.0 m37.0 m30.3 m28.3 m20.6 m30.8 m18.2 m34.3 m
Pre-tax income43.6 m28.9 m23.8 m15.4 m-2.5 m-63.3 m-89.4 m59.2 m
Income tax32.6 m17.2 m16.1 m7.0 m-3.6 m-4.6 m4.3 m16.8 m
Net income11.0 m11.7 m7.7 m8.4 m1.1 m-58.6 m-93.8 m42.4 m
Diluted EPS0.100.11 ≈0.070.080.01-0.56 ≈-0.900.39
Operating cash flow47.8 m ≈44.5 m32.7 m18.3 m ≈16.4 m ≈145.2 m-39.2 m73.7 m ≈
Dividends paid6.6 m ≈6.6 m6.6 m6.6 m ≈6.7 m ≈6.7 m6.7 m6.7 m ≈
Share repurchases1.0 k ≈-1.0 k155.0 k554.0 k ≈0 ≈002.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue104.9 m84.5 m67.2 m199.1 m354.3 m455.1 m479.0 m359.3 m
Revenue YoY+36.2%−19.5%−20.5%+196.3%+78.0%+28.4%+5.3%−25.0%
Net income98.2 m2.6 m-48.2 m81.8 m51.9 m60.4 m58.5 m-41.4 m
Net income YoY+917.8%−97.4%−1,979.9%unavailable−36.6%+16.3%−3.1%−170.8%
Diluted EPS1.620.04-0.831.370.730.560.56-0.40
Diluted EPS YoY+912.5%−97.5%−2,175.0%unavailable−46.7%−23.3%0.0%−171.4%
net %93.6%3.0%-71.7%41.1%14.6%13.3%12.2%-11.5%
Free cash flow23.0 m16.1 munavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
58.9 m USD
Financial debt
60.0 m USD
Net debt
1.1 m USD
Equity
443.5 m USD
Total assets
913.4 m USD
Debt / equity
0.14x
Current ratio
0.69x
ROE
-8.8%
ROA
-4.4%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
455.1 m
2024
479.0 m
2025
359.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
158.7 m
2024
136.5 m
2025
-20.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
115.3 m
2024
143.0 m
2025
110.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
274.0 m ≈
2024
279.5 m ≈
2025
89.4 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026derived

Pre-tax income
2023
150.1 m
2024
139.8 m
2025
-26.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
89.8 m
2024
81.3 m
2025
14.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
60.4 m
2024
58.5 m
2025
-41.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.56
2024
0.56
2025
-0.40

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
106.6 m
2024
103.7 m
2025
104.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.25
2024
0.25
2025
0.25

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
121.0 m
2024
82.7 m
2025
58.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
44.9 m
2024
94.8 m
2025
39.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
228.1 m
2024
237.9 m
2025
133.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
459.8 m
2024
538.1 m
2025
586.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
823.2 m
2024
955.0 m
2025
913.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Apr 2023verified

Long-term debt
2023
0
2024
0
2025
60.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
127.5 m
2024
181.7 m
2025
192.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
344.4 m
2024
453.4 m
2025
469.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
478.8 m †
2024
501.6 m †
2025
443.5 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
223.6 m
2024
113.7 m
2025
212.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Investing cash flow
2023
-97.2 m
2024
-102.1 m
2025
-255.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-56.8 m
2024
-43.0 m
2025
12.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
26.8 m
2024
26.2 m
2025
26.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
23.6 m
2024
6.8 m
2025
709.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-25.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
0.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
39.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-115.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-170.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-171.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
19.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
-10.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-31.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
unavailable
input data missing

Returns

ROE
-24.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
-11.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
-6.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
-4.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
insufficient data
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
146.6 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
2.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
196.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
unavailable
input data missing
Free cash flow
unavailable
input data missing
FCF conversion
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion
291.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
81 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
568.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
714.6 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-19.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
1.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
1.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
10.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
2.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
4.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
5.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Risk

Altman Z
0.79
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 56.2% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

5.40 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 568.0 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
568.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
1.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
10.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
-24.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-31.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-25.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
4.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

25/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 04 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 10 Aug 2026
verified 1985derived 147

Score by group

56% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
2.10
USD per share
Mid
2.71
USD per share
High
3.35
USD per share
Price: 5.40 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -49.8% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -99.2% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.92 – 4.42 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the input exists, but its latest figure is far older than the latest reported period: not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA0.92 – 2.28 (Mid 1.65)
    12 companies used · median multiple 4.8x · quartiles 3.6x – 5.7x
    APA, DEC, EOG, EQT, EXE, FANG, MNR, MTDR, OVV, PARR, REPX, TALO
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)3.29 – 4.42 (Mid 3.77)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 56.2% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality-6.0%22 (vs peers)19%
Net margin · Quality-31.1%18 (vs peers)11%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth0.5%4 (on a fixed band)15%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet2.2x7 (vs peers)19%
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.4x0 (on a fixed band)7%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuation10.6x0 (vs peers)19%
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns5.1%72 (on a fixed band)11%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet5/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial4/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality20/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial72/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

VAALCO ENERGY INC /DE/ (EGY). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 359.3 m USD in 2025; YoY growth -25.0%; net margin -31.1%; ROE -24.4%; net debt/EBITDA 2.2x.

The estimated value range is 2.10–3.35 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 2.71 USD, the price of 5.40 USD leaves a potential of -49.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -99.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 56.2% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.1%

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: -6.0%
  • Net margin: -31.1%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 0.5%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 2.2x
  • Current ratio: 0.4x
  • EV/EBITDA: 10.6x
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 11.0x
EV/EBITDA
10.6x
vertical median 4.8x
above median (+122.9%)
P/S
1.6x
vertical median 1.6x
at median
P/B
1.5x
vertical median 1.4x
above median (+8.8%)
ROE
-24.4%
vertical median 10.9%
below median (−323.3%)
Net margin
-31.1%
vertical median 9.0%
below median (−444.8%)
EBIT margin
-10.4%
vertical median 14.9%
below median (−170.2%)
Revenue YoY
-25.0%
vertical median -3.4%
below median
Net debt/EBITDA
2.2x
vertical median 0.9x
above median (+148.3%)
Dividend yield
4.6%
vertical median 2.5%
above median (+84.0%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
TTETotalEnergies SE199.6 bn15.711.3%6.5%−6.2%+38% / +33%
PBRPetrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro SA145.9 bn33.810.9%8.2%−10.7%+56% / +28%
EOGEog Resources, Inc.77.1 bn11.422.5%25.4%−4.5%+36% / +19%
OXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation57.3 bn8.618.9%33.7%−1.9%+37% / −3%
FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc.51.1 bn25.05.3%11.0%+35.8%+20% / +18%
DVNDevon Energy Corp48.5 bn10.511.5%16.7%+7.8%+19% / −2%
EQTEqt Corporation32.9 bn12.510.9%28.4%+63.9%−14% / +31%
EXEExpand Energy Corporation20.2 bn7.614.6%19.8%+186.3%−28% / +9%
PRPermian Resources Corporation18.8 bn14.911.5%21.5%+1.3%+55% / +71%
OVVOvintiv Inc.16.8 bn12.712.1%12.8%−2.7%+53% / +41%
APAApa Corporation15.6 bn9.425.9%—unavailable+78% / +24%
MTDRMatador Resources Company6.2 bn8.612.8%19.9%+5.5%+19% / −13%
CRCCalifornia Resources Corp4.3 bn—-15.5%-18.1%+14.7%+1% / −6%
PARRPar Pacific Holdings, Inc.3.5 bn3.650.9%9.8%−6.4%+53% / +103%
TALOTalos Energy Inc.2.6 bn—-18.1%-18.4%−9.8%+36% / +12%
NOGNorthern Oil And Gas, Inc.2.4 bn—-22.1%-25.4%+11.2%−1% / −40%
MNRMach Natural Resources LP1.7 bn19.1—7.4%+21.2%−15% / −43%
DMLPDorchester Minerals, L.P.1.4 bn15.6—45.5%−5.4%+27% / −5%
REPXRiley Exploration Permian, Inc.948.6 m9.216.8%17.3%−4.4%+57% / +74%
DECDiversified Energy Company942.7 m16.711.0%4.9%+141.5%−11% / +1,434%
EGYVaalco Energy Inc568.0 m—-24.4%-31.1%−25.0%+42% / +21%
GPRKGeoPark LTD487.6 m9.922.1%10.1%−25.5%+16% / +4%
SDSandridge Energy, Inc.468.3 m5.716.2%46.1%+24.8%−11% / −9%
KRPKimbell Royalty Partners, LP415.5 m4.1—29.7%+7.9%+24% / +1%
GTEGran Tierra Energy Inc.355.6 m—-97.9%-40.0%−4.0%+122% / +59%

1- and 3-year price returns: for EGY from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    VAALCO Energy is an independent energy company headquartered in Houston that produces crude oil and natural gas from African assets, mainly in Gabon and Egypt. In 2026 it completed its exit from Canadian operations and is growing production in Côte d'Ivoire, where Baobab drilling has restarted, so its operational progress in the coming period is relevant to investors 13.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • A diversified portfolio across several African countries, with operatorship of key assets and a visible near-term drilling schedule 13.
    • Relatively consistent proved reserves and a production base tied to projects already in operation 1.
    • Recent positive operational results, including a high-rate new well in Gabon 3.

    Weaknesses

    • Reliance on consortium partners to pay part of project budgets may affect the pace of investment 1.
    • Limited control over non-operated assets may mean decisions do not always align with the company's interests 1.
    • Production in Côte d'Ivoire was paused for a period and depends on the FPSO returning to service 13.

    Opportunities

    • Development of the Baobab and SE Etame fields could add significant production if drilling proceeds as planned 3.
    • Focus on existing assets and projects without heavy new infrastructure needs could support growth 3.
    • Disciplined acquisitions and farm-ins could extend the portfolio if conditions are favorable 1.

    Threats

    • Crude oil price volatility and geopolitical tensions could reduce revenues and cash flows 1.
    • Trade tariffs and supply chain delays can raise the costs of offshore projects 1.
    • Emissions regulation and sustainability pressures may influence long-term access to capital 1.

    Risks

    • Dependence on external financinghigh

      The company has no external funding commitments beyond operating cash flow and its credit facility, which could limit investment if prices fall 1.

    • Natural production declinemedium

      Without acquisitions or new development, production from existing fields could decline over time, affecting cash flows 1.

    • Consortium partnersmedium

      If partners fail to pay their share of costs, the company could have to cover the difference, affecting its investment budget 1.

    • Offshore operating risksmedium

      Offshore operations are exposed to technical incidents and weather that could cause costs and production interruptions 1.

    • Licence expirylow

      Some licences and production sharing contracts have near-term expiry dates, and their extension depends on conditions that may be uncertain 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If the Baobab restart and Phase 5 drilling proceed as planned, production growth from 2027 could support cash flows 3.
    • Recent Gabon results suggest some zones in existing fields can produce high rates, which could add to reserves 3.
    • If crude prices remain at favorable levels, the capital programme and shareholder returns could be supported more strongly 1.

    What would break the thesis

    • Price volatility and geopolitical uncertainty could reduce cash flows and force adjustments to the investment programme 1.
    • Dependence on consortium partners and on the resumption of activity in Côte d'Ivoire could delay production growth 13.
    • Tariff-related risks and supply chain constraints could raise costs and delay offshore projects 1.

    What to watch

    • Resumption of Baobab production and start of Phase 5 drilling in Côte d'IvoireQ4 2026
    • Production results from Gabon and the flow rate trend of the ETSEM-3H wellQ4 2026
    • Execution of the 2026 capital programme and any revision of the announced rangenext 10-K
    • Production increase expected in Côte d'Ivoire after the first new producer well2027

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    VAALCO Energy, Inc. is an independent energy company headquartered in Houston, Texas, engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and production of crude oil, natural gas and NGLs. Its portfolio is focused on Africa, with assets in Gabon, Egypt, Côte d'Ivoire and Equatorial Guinea, as well as an exploration interest in Nigeria 1. The company describes its strategy as maintaining production, controlling costs and capital expenditures, and pursuing disciplined acquisitions, aiming to accelerate shareholder returns 1.

    Segments

    Gabon

    Gabon accounts for the largest share of production, with approximately 2,535 MBoe in 2025, or 42% of total production 1. The company holds a 58.8% working interest in the Etame Marin block, where it is operator, and the ETSEM-3H well completed the Phase 3 drilling program at roughly 2,000 gross BOPD, or 1,140 BOPD net to VAALCO 3.

    Egypt

    Egypt contributed approximately 2,730 MBoe in 2025, or 45% of total production, all of it crude oil 1. Drilling that started in late 2024 supported consistent production growth in the area 1.

    Market context

    Crude oil prices are volatile and reflect global supply and demand, geopolitical developments and OPEC+ decisions 2. The company has noted that Middle East and West African tensions, along with trade measures, could affect equipment costs and lead times and therefore project timing 1.

    Competitive position

    VAALCO competes for assets and capital with other independent companies operating in West and North Africa, and competition for exploration blocks and consortium partners is intense. Its advantage lies in operatorship of several assets and local expertise, but it remains dependent on decisions by consortium partners 1.

    • West African independent operators

      Companies holding similar offshore assets in Gabon and Côte d'Ivoire and competing for exploration blocks and consortium partners.

    • Joint venture partners and national oil companies

      Partners in joint operations and state companies that influence approval of development plans and investment timing.

    • Buyers of divested assets

      Purchasers of the Canadian assets and other investors that may compete for acquisition opportunities in the company's portfolio.

    • US independent producers

      US exploration companies competing for investment capital and attention from energy sector investors.

    News & filings

    In the press

    The latest news item in our archive is from 09 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 07 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / VAALCO Energy, Inc. · 16 Mar 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / VAALCO Energy, Inc. · 10 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / VAALCO Energy, Inc. · 07 Oct 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.