olivLaw · US equity research
Diversified Energy Company DEC
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas · SIC 1311 · Vertical: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311)
Diversified Energy Company (DEC) produces, transports and markets natural gas, NGLs and oil from mature, long-life assets located mainly in Appalachia and the Central region of the United States. After its 2025 and 2026 acquisitions and the launch of an operated development program in Oklahoma, the company is expanding its production base, with average daily output reaching 1,086 MMcfepd in 2025.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Diversified Energy Company (DEC) stock was 13.33 USD (−2.27% on the day), with market capitalisation 943.4 m USD, P/E 2.3 on diluted EPS of 5.80 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 9.35%, beta 0.46, 52-week range 12.44–18.30 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 811.9 m USD (+38.4% YoY), net income of 246.9 m USD (−17.1% YoY), diluted EPS 3.31 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 35.5
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 13.52 – 15.14
- below the lower band · %B -0.11 · band width 11.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 14.36 / 14.46
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.09 / 0.03
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −2.1% | −2.0% | −0.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | +1.8% | −2.2% | +4.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | −13.2% | +4.3% | −17.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | −7.9% | +10.6% | −18.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | −1.7% | +10.5% | −12.2 pp | +16.2% |
| 3 years | +1,381.1% | +73.7% | +1,307.4 pp | +4.6% |
| 5 years | +832.2% | +61.7% | +770.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 62.5 m | 586.7 m | 499.8 m | 666.5 m | 27.1 m | 811.9 m |
| Operating income | -188.1 m | 291.4 m | 180.9 m | 250.9 m | -250.6 m | 471.8 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 74.6 m | 92.7 m | — | — | 108.6 m | 103.4 m |
| Interest expense | 42.7 m | 56.1 m | — | — | 63.4 m | 61.3 m |
| Pre-tax income | -257.5 m | 236.1 m | — | — | -313.4 m | 387.3 m |
| Income tax | 65.3 m | -61.8 m | — | — | -152.8 m | 139.7 m |
| Net income | -323.2 m | 297.7 m | 171.1 m | 195.5 m | -160.6 m | 246.9 m |
| Diluted EPS | -5.52 | 3.67 | 2.14 | 2.48 | -2.13 | 3.31 |
| Operating cash flow | 84.9 m | 80.3 m ≈ | — | — | 168.7 m | 88.8 m ≈ |
| Capex | 28.0 m | 61.2 m ≈ | — | — | 58.0 m | 40.4 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 17.2 m | 22.7 m ≈ | — | — | 22.1 m | 21.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 2.4, median 2.8, max 5.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 757.3 m | 1.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +90.5% | +1.5% | −61.1% | +141.5% |
| Net income | -325.5 m | -625.4 m | 748.7 m | -104.4 m | 341.1 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | −113.9% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -8.20 | -14.82 | 15.76 | -2.17 | 4.58 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | −113.8% | unavailable |
| net % | -32.3% | -32.6% | 38.4% | -13.8% | 18.6% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | 217.2 m | 168.6 m | 280.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 29.7 m USD
- Financial debt
- 3.0 bn USD
- Net debt
- 2.9 bn USD
- Equity
- 995.0 m USD
- Total assets
- 6.2 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 2.97x
- Current ratio
- 0.60x
- ROE
- 48.5%
- ROA
- 6.7%
- FCF margin
- 15.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 757.3 m | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 548.7 m | 1.3 bn | 203.2 m | 109.5 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2025verified |
| Operating income | -467.1 m | -671.4 m | 1.1 bn | -97.1 m | 535.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 167.6 m | 222.3 m | 273.3 m | 292.0 m | 412.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -299.4 m ≈ | -449.1 m ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | 194.9 m ≈ | 947.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 50.6 m | 100.8 m | 130.9 m | 136.8 m | 210.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -550.9 m | -799.5 m | 989.6 m | -247.9 m | 301.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -225.7 m | -178.9 m | 239.2 m | -144.8 m | -40.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -325.5 m | -625.4 m | 748.7 m | -104.4 m | 341.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -8.20 | -14.82 | 15.76 | -2.17 | 4.58 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 39.7 m | 42.2 m | 47.5 m | 48.0 m | 74.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 12.6 m | 62.7 m | 3.8 m | 6.0 m | 29.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | — | — | 234.4 m | 408.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | 9.2 m | 7.8 m | 9.6 m | 27.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 354.2 m | 304.6 m | 304.3 m | 650.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | — | 442.1 m | 425.8 m | 446.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 14.1 m | 21.1 m | 19.4 m | 2.9 m | 3.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 3.8 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.0 bn | 6.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | 93.8 m | 53.5 m | 35.0 m | 81.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 271.1 m | 200.8 m | 209.5 m | 236.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 1.1 bn | 638.4 m | 777.1 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 4.0 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.5 bn | 5.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 664.0 m | -189.7 m | 537.7 m | 412.0 m | 995.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | — | 0 | 0 | — | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2025verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 320.2 m | 387.8 m | 291.4 m | 220.7 m | 464.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | — | — | 74.3 m | 52.1 m | 184.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | — | — | 217.2 m ≈ | 168.6 m ≈ | 280.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -627.7 m | -386.5 m | -246.7 m | -266.8 m | -820.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 318.7 m | -6.5 m | -67.4 m | 58.4 m | 448.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 130.2 m | 143.5 m | 168.0 m | 83.9 m | 85.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 22.9 m | 0 | 5.2 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 62 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 943.4 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet6
- Growth0
- Quality74
- Returns100
- Valuation96
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 21.41 – 306.62 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)106.64 – 306.62 (Mid 164.79)WACC 6.1% · starting FCFF 561.4 m USD · terminal value share of EV 84%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDA21.41 – 47.34 (Mid 32.64)15 companies used · median multiple 4.7x · quartiles 4.0x – 5.7xAPA, AR, CHRD, CRGY, CRK, EOG, EQT, EXE, MGY, MTDR, OVV, REPX, TALO, VIST, WTI
- Peers: P/E47.79 – 74.81 (Mid 55.77)20 companies used · median multiple 9.6x · quartiles 8.2x – 12.9xAMPY, APA, AR, CHRD, CNX, CRK, DVN, EOG, EQT, EXE, GPRK, INR, MGY, MTDR, OVV, OXY, PR, REPX, TTE, VIST
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 62/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 14.1% | 74 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Net margin · Quality | 22.6% | 76 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 80.2% | 72 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -1.6% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 2.6x | 0 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.8x | 20 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 2.3x | 100 (vs peers) | 11% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 3.5x | 88 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 38.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 9.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 24.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet6/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality74/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation96/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Diversified Energy Company (DEC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.8 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 141.5%; net margin 22.6%; ROE 47.6%; net debt/EBITDA 2.6x.
The estimated value range is 47.79–74.81 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 55.77 USD, the price of 13.33 USD leaves a potential of 318.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 76.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 62/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 14.1%
- Net margin: 22.6%
- FCF conversion: 80.2%
- P/E (TTM): 2.3x
- EV/EBITDA: 3.5x
- FCF yield: 38.5%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 9.4%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 24.3%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -1.6%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 2.6x
- Interest coverage: 2.8x
- Current ratio: 0.6x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y.
Versus the vertical median
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTETotalEnergies SE | 199.6 bn | 15.7 | 11.3% | 6.5% | −6.2% | +38% / +33% |
| EOGEog Resources, Inc. | 81.4 bn | 12.1 | 22.5% | 25.4% | −4.5% | +44% / +26% |
| OXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation | 60.4 bn | 9.1 | 18.9% | 33.7% | −1.9% | +44% / +2% |
| FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc. | 53.9 bn | 37.4 | 3.8% | 8.6% | +35.8% | +26% / +25% |
| DVNDevon Energy Corp | 52.4 bn | 11.3 | 11.5% | 16.7% | +7.8% | +28% / +6% |
| EQTEqt Corporation | 33.9 bn | 12.9 | 10.9% | 28.4% | +63.9% | −11% / +36% |
| EXEExpand Energy Corporation | 20.8 bn | 7.8 | 14.6% | 19.8% | +186.3% | −26% / +12% |
| PRPermian Resources Corporation | 20.1 bn | 15.9 | 11.5% | 21.5% | +1.3% | +66% / +83% |
| OVVOvintiv Inc. | 17.9 bn | 13.4 | 12.1% | 12.8% | −2.7% | +62% / +50% |
| APAApa Corporation | 16.7 bn | 10.1 | 25.9% | — | unavailable | +91% / +33% |
| ARAntero Resources Corporation | 11.5 bn | 8.4 | 17.6% | 21.7% | +22.0% | +3% / +58% |
| CHRDChord Energy Corporation | 7.2 bn | 8.9 | 10.3% | 13.4% | −7.1% | +41% / −18% |
| MTDRMatador Resources Company | 6.2 bn | 8.6 | 12.8% | 19.9% | +5.5% | +19% / −13% |
| VISTVista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. | 5.9 bn | 13.4 | 33.3% | 29.0% | +41.0% | +26% / +101% |
| MGYMagnolia Oil & Gas Corp | 5.5 bn | 13.0 | 20.5% | 28.8% | −0.3% | +1% / +9% |
| CNXCNX Resources Corporation | 5.1 bn | 5.8 | 20.4% | 35.2% | +76.8% | −7% / +72% |
| CRGYCrescent Energy Company | 5.0 bn | 79.8 | 1.3% | 1.3% | +22.1% | +24% / +3% |
| CRCCalifornia Resources Corp | 4.3 bn | — | -15.5% | -18.1% | +14.7% | +1% / −6% |
| CRKComstock Resources, Inc. | 3.9 bn | 7.6 | 21.1% | 23.3% | +77.0% | −50% / +36% |
| TALOTalos Energy Inc. | 2.6 bn | — | -17.8% | -20.5% | −9.8% | +36% / +12% |
| KOSKosmos Energy Ltd. | 1.3 bn | — | -58.8% | -27.4% | −23.1% | +101% / −67% |
| REPXRiley Exploration Permian, Inc. | 950.0 m | 7.8 | 19.9% | 24.5% | −4.4% | +57% / +74% |
| DECDiversified Energy Company | 943.4 m | 2.3 | 47.6% | 22.6% | +141.5% | −2% / +1,381% |
| AESIAtlas Energy Solutions Inc. | 843.0 m | — | -12.1% | -13.0% | +3.7% | −22% / −61% |
| VTSVitesse Energy, Inc. | 618.1 m | — | -7.6% | -15.4% | +13.2% | −31% / −38% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for DEC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 8.16 Total return -39% · Per year -39% | 14.47 Total return 9% · Per year 9% | 21.86 Total return 64% · Per year 64% |
| 3 years | 6.98 Total return -48% · Per year -19% | 14.02 Total return 5% · Per year 2% | 23.38 Total return 75% · Per year 21% |
| 5 years | 5.97 Total return -55% · Per year -15% | 13.57 Total return 2% · Per year 0% | 25.00 Total return 88% · Per year 13% |
- Exit P/E± 3.50
- Net margin± 2.45
- Annual revenue growth± 2.14
- Annual dilution± 0.21
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Diversified Energy Company (DEC) produces, transports and markets natural gas, NGLs and oil from mature, long-life assets located mainly in Appalachia and the Central region of the United States. After its 2025 and 2026 acquisitions and the launch of an operated development program in Oklahoma, the company is expanding its production base, with average daily output reaching 1,086 MMcfepd in 2025 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- A portfolio of mature assets with a shallow decline profile, large proved reserves and a hedging programme that supports cash flow.
- A vertically integrated business model, including an in-house plugging company and midstream infrastructure, reducing reliance on third parties.
- A demonstrated ability to integrate acquisitions and realise cost synergies, which has lowered general costs per unit.
Weaknesses
- High leverage, with a significant part of debt in asset-backed securities secured by assets, which may limit financial flexibility.
- Reliance on acquisitions to grow production, which could become costlier if the market for assets becomes more competitive.
- Rising operating costs per unit for liquids-rich production, and some assets carry higher transport and operating costs.
Opportunities
- The Oklahoma operated programme, with an extensive inventory of drilling locations, could add production and long-term reserves.
- Demand for gas for LNG exports could support prices and revenue for American gas producers.
- Sales of non-core assets could free up capital for acquisitions or share buybacks if market conditions remain favourable.
Threats
- Volatility in gas and oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions could reduce revenue and the value of reserves.
- Environmental regulation and well-retirement obligations could create unexpected additional costs.
- Tariffs on imported equipment and inflationary pressures could raise the cost of development and maintenance programmes.
Risks
- Commodity price volatilityhigh
Revenue, cash flow and reserve value depend on gas, NGL and oil prices, which are influenced by factors outside the company's control and could affect results.
- Leverage and ABS obligationshigh
A significant part of debt is tied to asset-backed securities, and restrictions in financing agreements could limit growth and access to capital markets in future.
- Acquisition integration riskmedium
Several large acquisitions in a short period put pressure on operational integration and cost control, and announced synergies could be delayed or smaller than estimated.
- Well retirement obligationsmedium
Plugging and retirement costs could exceed estimates, especially if regulation tightens or if production declines faster than expected.
- Dependence on third-party infrastructuremedium
Production relies on pipelines and processing plants controlled by third parties, and outages or capacity limits could reduce delivered volumes and realised prices.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the Oklahoma operated programme proves efficient, the company could reduce its dependence on acquisitions and sustain long-term production growth.
- Export-driven gas demand and large reserves could support cash flow even in lower-price periods, especially with existing hedging in place.
- Share buybacks and sales of non-core assets could improve per-share metrics and financial flexibility if continued.
What would break the thesis
- If gas prices remain below 2025 levels, revenue and cash flow could fall significantly and debt obligations could become harder to manage.
- The acquisition-led strategy could become more expensive if competition for assets rises and integration fails to deliver announced synergies.
- Retirement costs and environmental regulation could erode long-term margins, particularly on assets with declining production.
What to watch
- Results of the Oklahoma operated programme and the pace of one-rig drilling2026
- Leverage ratio and reduction of ABS debtQ3 2026
- Integration of the Camino acquisition and delivery of estimated synergiesnext 10-K
- Henry Hub and WTI price levels and the effect of hedges on realised revenueQ4 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
DEC builds its business model on full-lifecycle management of its assets, focusing on extending the productive life of existing wells, using digital monitoring and running an internal well-retirement program through a vertically integrated plugging company in Appalachia 1. Average daily production was 1,086 MMcfepd in 2025, with over 69,000 total net productive wells, and proved reserves totalled 6,082,483 MMcfe at 31 December 2025 1. Natural gas accounts for about 73% of proved reserves, and the company relies mainly on acquisitions of existing assets rather than on new drilling 1.
In the second quarter of 2026, average production reached 1,253 MMcfepd, up 9% from the same period a year earlier, driven mainly by the Canvas and Sheridan acquisitions and non-operated development 23. The company announced the Camino acquisition, with a gross purchase price of about 1.2 billion USD, closed in July 2026, and a sale of non-core Barnett and Arkansas assets for 147 million USD 23.
Management describes its strategy as a combination of bolt-on acquisitions, portfolio optimization, non-operated development with partners and a new one-rig operated programme in Oklahoma, which could reduce reliance on acquisitions to sustain output 3. At 30 June 2026 the leverage ratio stood at 2.45x 3.
Segments
Appalachian Region
The Appalachian Region spans Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee and Alabama, with shallow conventional formations and the Marcellus and Utica shales; it is also home to the vertically integrated plugging company, and in the second quarter of 2026 it accounted for a minority share of production 13.
Market context
The Henry Hub gas price averaged about 3.43 USD/MMBtu in 2025 but fell to about 2.90 USD/MMBtu in the second quarter of 2026, as seasonal demand eased, partly offset by strong LNG export demand 12. The Russia-Ukraine and Middle East conflicts kept prices volatile, and WTI averaged 92.79 USD/bbl in the second quarter of 2026 2.
The market is dominated by US producers, and natural gas makes up about 71% of the company's production mix; the company hedges a large part of output with derivatives, but the hedge level can affect realized revenue if prices move differently from expectations 3.
Trends
- Consolidation of mature assetstailwind
Successive acquisitions such as Maverick, Canvas, Sheridan and Camino point to an active market for mature gas and oil assets, which could favour companies with integration capability and access to financing.
- LNG and export demandtailwind
Strong US LNG demand supported gas prices in 2025 and early 2026, and further export growth could keep prices in a range favourable to American producers.
- Geopolitical volatilitymixed
Tensions involving Iran, Ukraine and the Middle East have caused rapid price swings, which could reduce revenue predictability and increase pressure on the hedging programme.
- Equipment costs and inflationheadwind
Tariffs on steel and aluminium and inflationary pressures on labour could raise operating costs, particularly for development programmes and plugging operations.
Competitive position
According to the 10-K, competition in the gas and oil industry is intense and includes companies with greater technical and financial resources, as well as private equity firms buying assets as investments 1. Competition for acquisitions of mature assets and for qualified personnel could raise costs and reduce available opportunities 1.
In non-operated development, DEC works with operators such as Continental Resources and Mewbourne, which reflects both a partnership relationship and indirect competition for capital and acreage in the same basins 3.
- Continental Resources
Non-operated development partner of DEC, mentioned in the second quarter 2026 results; appears as a partner rather than a direct rival across all assets.
- Mewbourne
Another non-operated development partner named by the company, active in core basins shared with DEC.
- Netherland, Sewell & Associates
Petroleum engineering consultancy that evaluates DEC's reserves; not a direct competitor, but relevant to reserve comparability.
- MarkWest Energy Partners
NGL processor on which the company depends for its Langley, Kentucky plant; more an infrastructure partner than a competitor.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report02 Nov 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report (amendment)18 Sept 2026Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report09 Sept 2026Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report03 Sept 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report14 Aug 2026Regulation FD disclosure
- Current report10 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report (amendment)14 Jul 2026Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report06 Jul 2026Material agreement · Acquisition or disposition of assets · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Diversified Energy Company · 26 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Diversified Energy Company · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Diversified Energy Company · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.