olivLaw · US equity research
Kirby Corporation KEX
Water Transportation · SIC 4400 · Vertical: Water Transportation (SIC 4400)
Kirby Corporation is the largest domestic tank barge operator in the United States, moving bulk liquids on the Mississippi River System, the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway and along all three coasts, and it also runs a distribution and services segment for power generation and industrial equipment. The company reported revenues of 3364.05 mn USD in fiscal 2025, and 2026 is shaping up as a year of moderate growth, with guidance for EPS growth of 5% to 15%.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Kirby Corporation (KEX) stock was 128.12 USD (−9.02% on the day), with market capitalisation 6.8 bn USD, P/E 19.7 on diluted EPS of 6.50 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.93, 52-week range 105.84–152.59 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 922.4 m USD (+7.8% YoY), net income of 89.7 m USD (−4.8% YoY), diluted EPS 1.67 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 36.6
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 128.92 – 146.10
- below the lower band · %B -0.05 · band width 12.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 137.23 / 136.96
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.47 / 0.75
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −8.4% | −1.1% | −7.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −2.3% | −0.5% | −1.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | −10.1% | +4.4% | −14.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +16.3% | +12.3% | +4.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +22.7% | +13.5% | +9.1 pp | +21.5% |
| 3 years | +64.0% | +76.4% | −12.4 pp | +70.8% |
| 5 years | +117.6% | +63.7% | +54.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 831.1 m | 802.3 m | 785.7 m | 855.5 m | 871.2 m | 851.8 m | 844.1 m | 922.4 m |
| SG&A | 84.1 m | 82.4 m | 95.3 m | 85.8 m | 87.8 m | 87.4 m | 101.3 m | 88.7 m |
| Operating income | 126.9 m | 50.1 m | 105.5 m | 131.8 m | 129.2 m | 129.7 m | 107.7 m | 122.4 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 60.7 m | 62.5 m | 63.7 m | 65.7 m | 66.9 m | 67.9 m | 68.2 m | 70.4 m |
| Interest expense | 12.5 m | 10.7 m | 10.5 m | 12.7 m | 11.8 m | 11.2 m | 10.3 m | 11.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 117.4 m | 43.0 m | 100.3 m | 123.9 m | 122.9 m | 124.2 m | 104.7 m | 118.4 m |
| Income tax | 27.4 m | 6.0 k | 24.1 m | 29.6 m | 30.2 m | 32.2 m | 23.4 m | 28.6 m |
| Net income | 90.0 m | 42.8 m | 76.0 m | 94.3 m | 92.5 m | 91.8 m | 81.2 m | 89.7 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.55 | 0.74 ≈ | 1.33 | 1.67 | 1.65 | 1.68 ≈ | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Operating cash flow | 206.5 m ≈ | 247.4 m | 36.5 m | 93.9 m ≈ | 227.5 m ≈ | 312.2 m | 97.7 m | 72.3 m ≈ |
| Capex | 76.4 m ≈ | 96.7 m | 78.7 m | 71.5 m ≈ | 67.3 m ≈ | 47.0 m | 48.3 m | 71.5 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 55.8 m ≈ | 33.3 m | 101.5 m | 31.2 m ≈ | 120.0 m ≈ | 101.6 m | 52.7 m | 59.7 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 19 percentile of its own 31-quarter history (min 12.4, median 25.4, max 64.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.0 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +34.2% | −4.5% | −23.5% | +3.5% | +24.0% | +11.0% | +5.6% | +3.0% |
| Net income | 78.5 m | 142.3 m | -272.5 m | -247.0 m | 122.3 m | 222.9 m | 286.7 m | 354.6 m |
| Net income YoY | −75.0% | +81.4% | −291.5% | unavailable | unavailable | +82.3% | +28.6% | +23.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.31 | 2.37 | -4.55 | -4.11 | 2.03 | 3.72 | 4.91 | 6.33 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −76.7% | +80.9% | −292.0% | unavailable | unavailable | +83.3% | +32.0% | +28.9% |
| net % | 2.6% | 5.0% | -12.6% | -11.0% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 10.5% |
| Free cash flow | 45.1 m | 263.6 m | 296.8 m | 223.6 m | 121.5 m | 138.5 m | 413.8 m | 405.7 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 78.8 m USD
- Financial debt
- 911.9 m USD
- Net debt
- 833.1 m USD
- Equity
- 3.4 bn USD
- Total assets
- 6.0 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.27x
- Current ratio
- 1.53x
- ROE
- 10.5%
- ROA
- 6.0%
- FCF margin
- 12.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 258.3 m | 266.9 m | 302.7 m | 335.2 m | 337.1 m | 356.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -420.8 m | -258.1 m | 192.9 m | 335.1 m | 399.1 m | 496.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 219.9 m | 213.7 m | 201.4 m | 211.2 m | 240.3 m | 264.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -200.8 m ≈ | -44.4 m ≈ | 394.3 m ≈ | 546.2 m ≈ | 639.4 m ≈ | 760.4 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 48.7 m | 42.5 m | 44.6 m | 52.0 m | 49.1 m | 46.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -461.4 m | -290.6 m | 165.0 m | 294.1 m | 362.8 m | 471.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -189.8 m | -43.8 m | 42.2 m | 71.2 m | 75.9 m | 116.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -272.5 m | -247.0 m | 122.3 m | 222.9 m | 286.7 m | 354.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -4.55 | -4.11 | 2.03 | 3.72 | 4.91 | 6.33 | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 59.9 m | 60.1 m | 60.3 m | 59.9 m | 58.4 m | 56.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 80.3 m | 34.8 m | 80.6 m | 32.6 m | 74.4 m | 78.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 315.3 m | 418.0 m | 483.4 m | 526.7 m | 489.9 m | 473.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 309.7 m | 331.4 m | 461.8 m | 454.4 m | 393.9 m | 398.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 3.9 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 657.8 m | 438.7 m | 438.7 m | 438.7 m | 438.7 m | 438.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 69.0 m | 60.1 m | 51.5 m | 42.9 m | 34.4 m | 30.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 5.9 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.6 bn | 5.7 bn | 5.9 bn | 6.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 162.5 m | 199.1 m | 278.1 m | 269.4 m | 251.4 m | 218.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.5 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 866.7 m | 911.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 466.0 m | 543.8 m | 642.2 m | 675.8 m | 734.8 m | 706.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 3.1 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 444.9 m | 321.6 m | 294.1 m | 540.2 m | 756.5 m | 670.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 148.2 m | 98.0 m | 172.6 m | 401.7 m | 342.7 m | 264.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 296.8 m ≈ | 223.6 m ≈ | 121.5 m ≈ | 138.5 m ≈ | 413.8 m ≈ | 405.7 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -485.8 m | -55.8 m | -139.6 m | -413.1 m | -400.1 m | -352.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 96.5 m | -311.3 m | -108.8 m | -175.1 m | -314.5 m | -313.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 22.9 m | 112.8 m | 174.6 m | 354.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 61 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 6.8 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet66
- Valuation49
- Quality57
- Growth77
- Returns71
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 57.24 – 209.23 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)124.50 – 209.23 (Mid 156.63)WACC 8.7% · starting FCFF 509.1 m USD · terminal value share of EV 75%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -1.2%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA70.79 – 122.12 (Mid 103.56)6 companies used · median multiple 8.5x · quartiles 6.2x – 9.8xCCL, INSW, NCLH, RCL, SEAL-PA, TDW
- Peers: P/E57.24 – 126.55 (Mid 89.33)13 companies used · median multiple 13.7x · quartiles 8.8x – 19.5xBIP, CCL, DLNG, FLNG, INSW, KNOP, MATX, NCLH, RCL, RUBI, TDW, TNK, VIK
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 61/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 8.3% | 40 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Net margin · Quality | 10.2% | 42 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 133.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 6.5% | 54 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 46.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 1.3x | 43 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 11.0x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.7x | 74 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 19.7x | 38 (vs peers) | 11% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 10.2x | 29 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 7.0% | 88 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.9% | 71 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet66/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth77/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality57/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial71/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation49/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
KIRBY CORPORATION (KEX). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 3.0%; net margin 10.2%; ROE 10.4%; net debt/EBITDA 1.3x.
The estimated value range is 70.79–126.55 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 103.56 USD, the price of 128.12 USD leaves a potential of -19.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -23.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 61/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 133.9%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 46.1%
- Interest coverage: 11.0x
- Current ratio: 1.7x
- FCF yield: 7.0%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 4.9%
What contradicts it
- EV/EBITDA: 10.2x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Water Transportation (SIC 4400) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 21 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCLRoyal Caribbean Cruises Ltd | 89.1 bn | 19.7 | 41.7% | 23.8% | +8.8% | +25% / +210% |
| CCLCarnival Corp Ltd. | 42.1 bn | 13.7 | 24.0% | 11.4% | +6.4% | +21% / +108% |
| BIPBrookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. | 11.3 bn | 42.4 | 7.7% | 11.0% | +9.8% | +6% / +46% |
| NCLHNorwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. | 8.5 bn | 10.2 | 31.2% | 8.2% | +3.7% | +1% / +22% |
| KEXKirby Corporation | 6.8 bn | 19.7 | 10.4% | 10.2% | +3.0% | +23% / +64% |
| MATXMatson, Inc. | 6.3 bn | 14.2 | 17.2% | 13.4% | −2.3% | +94% / +121% |
| INSWInternational Seaways, Inc. | 4.9 bn | 6.4 | 37.4% | 62.0% | −11.4% | +88% / +118% |
| GLNGGolar Lng Limited | 4.5 bn | 69.2 | 3.4% | 16.7% | +51.1% | +21% / +108% |
| TDWTidewater Inc | 3.7 bn | 14.9 | 19.5% | 18.3% | +0.5% | +36% / +22% |
| SEAL-PASeapeak LLC | 2.0 bn | 76.8 | — | 4.1% | −10.4% | −2% / −2% |
| NATNORDIC AMERICAN TANKERS Ltd | 1.5 bn | 117.0 | 2.6% | 4.2% | −16.6% | +93% / +81% |
| FLNGFLEX LNG Ltd. | 1.5 bn | 19.5 | 9.8% | 21.5% | −2.4% | +6% / −7% |
| GLOP-PAGasLog Partners LP | 1.2 bn | — | -1.7% | -7.2% | −21.9% | −2% / +4% |
| CMDBCostamare Bulkers Holdings Limited | 441.3 m | — | -11.2% | -6.3% | unavailable | +11% / unavailable |
| KNOPKNOT Offshore Partners LP | 297.6 m | 12.8 | — | 6.4% | +14.4% | −12% / +63% |
| EDRYEurodry Ltd. | 110.7 m | — | -4.0% | — | +8.9% | +195% / +93% |
| OMEXOdyssey Marine Exploration, Inc. | 27.5 m | — | — | -13,366.3% | −54.0% | +469% / +218% |
| USEAUnited Maritime Corp | 22.7 m | — | -11.0% | -16.4% | −16.8% | +44% / −1% |
| RUBIRubico Inc. | 778.7 k | 0.0 | 6.6% | 11.2% | −2.8% | −100% / unavailable |
| VIKViking Holdings Ltd | — | 35.5 | 263.5% | 17.7% | +21.9% | +37% / unavailable |
| DLNGDynagas Lng Partners LP | — | 2.3 | 12.9% | — | −100.0% | −13% / +20% |
| TNKTeekay Tankers Ltd. | — | 8.8 | 18.5% | 36.9% | −22.6% | +54% / +79% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for KEX from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 79.91 Total return -38% · Per year -38% | 141.15 Total return 10% · Per year 10% | 212.42 Total return 66% · Per year 66% |
| 3 years | 80.71 Total return -37% · Per year -14% | 160.10 Total return 25% · Per year 8% | 264.10 Total return 106% · Per year 27% |
| 5 years | 81.51 Total return -36% · Per year -9% | 181.59 Total return 42% · Per year 7% | 328.35 Total return 156% · Per year 21% |
- Exit P/E± 40.02
- Net margin± 28.02
- Annual revenue growth± 22.57
- Annual dilution± 2.35
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
Kirby Corporation is the largest domestic tank barge operator in the United States, moving bulk liquids on the Mississippi River System, the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway and along all three coasts, and it also runs a distribution and services segment for power generation and industrial equipment. The company reported revenues of 3364.05 mn USD in fiscal 2025, and 2026 is shaping up as a year of moderate growth, with guidance for EPS growth of 5% to 15% 13.
SWOT
Strengths
- Leading position in the inland barge market with a large diversified fleet and term contracts that give a relatively predictable revenue stream.
- Two complementary segments, marine transportation and distribution and services, which reduce dependence on a single economic cycle.
- Solid cash generation capacity and an active share repurchase programme.
Weaknesses
- High exposure to fuel costs, with a lag in contract recovery that weighed on margins in the second quarter of 2026.
- The distribution and services margin remains low compared with marine transportation.
- Dependence on the petrochemical and refining sectors makes volumes sensitive to those industries' cycles.
Opportunities
- Demand for power generation linked to data centres and backup systems could keep growing and support the KDS segment.
- Better inland contract pricing, if the market stays balanced, could support margins in the second half of the year.
- Fleet renewal and retirement of older barges could create chances to invest in efficient capacity.
Threats
- Changes to the Jones Act or waivers could allow foreign-flagged vessels to compete in the United States market.
- Ageing lock infrastructure and more frequent outages could raise operating costs.
- A decline in oil and gas production could reduce transported volumes and pricing pressure.
Risks
- Marine accidents and spillshigh
An accident or pollutant discharge could close part of the waterway system and could create liabilities that are uninsured or exceed coverage 1.
- Changes to the Jones Acthigh
The business depends on Jones Act status; repeal or modification of the rule could bring foreign competition with a significant negative effect 1.
- Fuel price volatilitymedium
The gap between cost increases and contract adjustments can temporarily hit margins, especially when prices rise quickly 12.
- Oversupply of bargesmedium
New barge construction by competitors could reduce utilisation and rates, particularly if petrochemical and refinery demand weakens 1.
- Shortage of crewmedium
The industry faces a shortage of qualified mariners, which could raise wage costs and limit operating capacity 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If inland contract pricing keeps improving and fleet utilisation stays high, marine margins could recover toward the stronger levels of the prior year.
- Rising demand for power generation linked to data centres could sustain growth in the KDS segment and diversify revenues.
- The leading inland market position and the repurchase programme could support EPS growth within the announced range.
What would break the thesis
- If fuel costs stay volatile and contract recovery keeps lagging, marine margins could stay below prior levels.
- Conventional oil and gas activity remains weak, and if the decline continues, the KDS segment could grow more slowly than management expects.
- Higher debt and a rising debt-to-capitalisation ratio could limit financial flexibility if operating cash flow falls short of estimates.
What to watch
- Recovery of inland marine margins after fuel cost pass-throughQ3 2026
- Pace of inland term and spot contract pricing2026
- Delivery against full-year EPS growth guidance of 5% to 15%next 10-K
- Power generation order and delivery trends, including OEM timingQ4 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
Kirby runs two reportable segments: marine transportation (KMT), which moves petrochemicals, black oil, refined products and agricultural chemicals by tank barge and towing vessels, and distribution and services (KDS), which supplies equipment, parts and services for power generation systems and rents and manufactures specialized equipment 1. Its inland fleet includes 1,105 tank barges with 24.5 million barrels of capacity, and the company reported about 5,233 employees 1. In fiscal 2025, KMT generated 58% of revenues and KDS 42% 1.
The marine transportation operating margin was 19.3% in fiscal 2025, compared with 19.0% in 2024, while the distribution and services operating margin was 9.2%, up from 8.0% 1. The company projects net cash flow from operations of 575 to 675 mn USD in 2026 and capital expenditures of 220 to 260 mn USD 13.
Total revenues for the first six months of 2026 were 1766.498 mn USD, and diluted EPS for the second quarter was 1.67 USD, roughly flat year over year 23. The company repurchased 59.7 mn USD of its shares in the second quarter of 2026, reflecting an active capital return policy 3.
Segments
Marine transportation (KMT)
The segment moves petrochemicals, black oil, refined products and agricultural chemicals by tank barge on the Mississippi River System and along the United States coasts, and petrochemicals made up 48% of segment revenues in 2025 1. Second-quarter 2026 segment revenues rose 9% year over year on higher inland term pricing and fuel rebills, but margins fell because of higher fuel costs 23.
Distribution and services (KDS)
The segment supplies equipment, parts and services for power generation, including behind-the-meter and backup systems, as well as electric fracturing equipment and specialized equipment for data centers 1. Second-quarter 2026 revenues rose 6% year over year, driven by power generation, while oil and gas activity declined 3.
Market context
The United States tank barge industry is fragmented, with about 25 large integrated companies and smaller operators, and Kirby operates about 28% of the roughly 4,004 inland tank barges 1. Demand depends on petrochemical and refinery volumes, which in turn depend on natural gas and crude oil prices; higher production could support demand for barge transport 1.
Barge transport is often the most efficient and safest surface mode for bulk products compared with rail and trucks, which supports the company's place in distribution chains 1. The coastal market for barges of 195,000 barrels or less has about 260 units, of which Kirby operates 28 1.
Trends
- Rising inland pricingtailwind
Inland term contract pricing improved in early 2025, and in the second quarter of 2026 spot rates improved sequentially, which supports marine margins if the trend holds 23.
- Growth in data centre power demandtailwind
Demand for behind-the-meter and backup power solutions, partly linked to data centres, has lifted power generation revenues and kept order activity strong 3.
- Rising fuel costsheadwind
Fuel costs rose quickly in the second quarter of 2026, and contractual escalators lag by 30 to 120 days, which temporarily compressed inland margins 2.
- Weakness in conventional oil and gas activitymixed
Oil and gas activity fell sharply in 2025 and in the second quarter of 2026, reducing demand for conventional transmissions and parts, although electric fracturing equipment partly offset this 13.
Competitive position
Competition in the tank barge industry is intense and based on price and reliability; direct competitors are non-captive inland barge operators and operators of coastal barges up to 195,000 barrels, while captive refinery and petrochemical fleets compete occasionally 1. Indirect competition comes from product pipelines and rail or truck transport 1.
Kirby is the largest inland barge carrier both by number of barges and by total fleet barrel capacity, but several large integrated companies and smaller operators can compete on the same routes 1.
- Non-captive inland barge operators
Direct competitors in the inland market; no US-listed ticker identified in the sources.
- Coastal barge operators up to 195,000 barrels
Direct competitors in the United States coastal market, roughly 20 large and small companies.
- Captive refinery and petrochemical fleets
Carry cargo for their own account and occasionally compete in the inland market.
- Pipeline operators and rail or truck carriers
Indirect competition for liquid bulk transport, mainly for fixed high-volume point-to-point flows.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- United's newest international destination: Chihuahua, MexicoThe Points Guy · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Card cadou Steam, PSN, Xbox sau Nintendo – care se potrivește cel mai bine? (P)Mediafax · 03 Nov 2026 · RO
- Povorcitinib for nonsegmental vitiligo: two randomized, controlled, phase 3 STOP-V trialsNature Medicine · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- United Airlines Eyes 1st Flights To Uzbekistan & Kazakhstan: Here's WhySimple Flying · 31 Oct 2026 · EN
- Supersonic airliner in doubt as company shifts to powering AI data centersArs Technica — AI · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Scott Kirby Wants United To Be America’s Emirates Or Singapore AirlinesSimple Flying · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- United Airlines Eyes 2 Central Asian Countries That No US Carrier Has Ever ServedSimple Flying · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Fi’s GPS-equipped dog trackers are on sale for 30 percent offThe Verge · 23 Oct 2026 · EN
- Creatorul Super Smash Bros. crede că AI va face o mulțime de jocuri, majoritatea nu vor face bani - Noobz.roSurge — Google News · 23 Oct 2026 · RO
- Airlines' new normal: Higher fares, fewer flightsAxios · 22 Oct 2026 · EN
- United’s Higher Fares Can’t Keep Up With Soaring Fuel CostsSkift · 21 Oct 2026 · EN
- United CEO Kirby Defends Support of a US Wealth TaxBloomberg Markets · 21 Oct 2026 · EN
- United ‘Still Solidly Profitable’ as Fuels Costs Rise, CEO Kirby SaysBloomberg Markets · 21 Oct 2026 · EN
- United Airlines CEO faces rightwing backlash after calling for US wealth taxThe Guardian World · 20 Oct 2026 · EN
- United Airlines CEO calls for wealth taxThe Hill · 20 Oct 2026 · EN
- After 10 years at United, CEO Scott Kirby is thinking big about the future of his airline from JFK to AICNBC World · 23 Aug 2026 · EN
- CISO Conversation: Russ Kirby – Passion Is the Antidote to BurnoutSecurityWeek · 04 Aug 2026 · RO
SEC filings
- Current report28 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report29 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report08 May 2026
- Current report30 Apr 2026Results of operations · Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report30 Mar 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement06 Mar 2026
- Current report20 Feb 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Annual report17 Feb 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Kirby Corporation · 17 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Kirby Corporation · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Kirby Corporation · 29 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.