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olivLaw · US equity research

lululemon athletica inc. LULU

Apparel & Other Finishd Prods of Fabrics & Similar Matl · SIC 2300 · Vertical: Apparel & Other Finishd Prods of Fabrics & Similar Matl (SIC 2300)

112.06USD+4.78% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

lululemon athletica inc. designs, distributes and retails technical athletic apparel, footwear and accessories through an omnichannel network of company-operated stores and e-commerce. The company is under pressure: Americas revenue has declined, guidance for 2026 points to a decline, while China Mainland and Rest of World have grown.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) stock was 112.06 USD (+4.78% on the day), with market capitalisation 11.8 bn USD, P/E 9.2 on diluted EPS of 12.21 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.18, 52-week range 91.88–215.88 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2027): revenue of 2.4 bn USD (−4.3% YoY), net income of 329.2 m USD (−11.2% YoY), diluted EPS 2.92 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
11.8 bn USD
shares as of 28 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
9.2
Diluted EPS TTM 12.21 · TTM to 02 Aug 2026
E/P (TTM)
10.89%
TTM to 02 Aug 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.18
Volatility (1y) 47%
52-week range
91.88215.88

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
64.1
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
89.50 – 112.53
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.98 · band width 22.8%
SMA 50 / 200
102.34 / 132.44
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
2.41 / 0.89
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+20.3%−1.1%+21.4 pp—
3 months−9.3%−0.5%−8.8 pp—
6 months−15.1%+4.4%−19.5 pp—
Year to date−46.1%+12.3%−58.4 pp—
1 year−30.3%+13.5%−43.8 pp+10.9%
3 years−72.5%+76.4%−148.9 pp+16.8%
5 years−76.1%+63.7%−139.7 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−57.4%
06 Jan 2026 → 07 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−82.0%
29 Dec 2023 → 07 Oct 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−24.9%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2027 · 02 Aug 2026

Revenue
2.4 bn USD
−4.3% YoY
Net income
329.2 m USD
−11.2% YoY
Diluted EPS
2.92
−5.8% YoY
net / operating
13.6% / 18.8%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26Q4 '26Q1 '27Q2 '27
Revenue2.4 bn3.6 bn2.4 bn2.5 bn2.6 bn3.6 bn2.5 bn2.4 bn
Cost of revenue995.1 m1.4 bn987.5 m1.0 bn1.1 bn1.6 bn1.1 bn953.8 m
Gross profit1.4 bn2.2 bn1.4 bn1.5 bn1.4 bn2.0 bn1.3 bn1.5 bn
SG&A909.8 m1.1 bn942.9 m951.7 m988.3 m1.2 bn1.1 bn1.0 bn
Operating income490.7 m1.0 bn438.6 m523.8 m435.9 m812.3 m276.9 m453.7 m
Depreciation & amortisation113.6 m133.6 m114.5 m119.7 m127.5 m134.5 m135.3 m142.3 m
Pre-tax income504.4 m1.1 bn450.4 m533.6 m441.7 m813.3 m286.1 m467.4 m
Income tax152.5 m309.1 m135.8 m162.6 m134.9 m226.4 m91.0 m138.1 m
Net income351.9 m748.4 m314.6 m370.9 m306.8 m586.9 m195.0 m329.2 m
Diluted EPS2.876.14 ≈2.603.102.595.01 ≈1.692.92
Operating cash flow300.7 m ≈1.4 bn-119.0 m328.7 m ≈249.9 m ≈1.1 bn214.4 m374.8 m ≈
Capex178.5 m ≈235.0 m152.3 m177.9 m ≈167.4 m ≈183.2 m127.4 m149.7 m ≈
Share repurchases412.6 m ≈335.4 m434.4 m281.2 m ≈190.9 m ≈271.8 m361.8 m333.3 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 9.7, median 41.9, max 79.0; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20192020202120222023202420252026
Revenue3.3 bn4.0 bn4.4 bn6.3 bn8.1 bn9.6 bn10.6 bn11.1 bn
Revenue YoY+24.1%+21.0%+10.6%+42.1%+29.6%+18.6%+10.1%+4.9%
Net income483.8 m645.6 m588.9 m975.3 m854.8 m1.6 bn1.8 bn1.6 bn
Net income YoY+87.0%+33.4%−8.8%+65.6%−12.4%+81.4%+17.1%−13.0%
Diluted EPS3.614.934.507.496.6812.2014.6413.26
Diluted EPS YoY+90.0%+36.6%−8.7%+66.4%−10.8%+82.6%+20.0%−9.4%
net %14.7%16.2%13.4%15.6%10.5%16.1%17.1%14.2%
Free cash flow517.0 m386.3 m574.1 m994.6 m327.8 m1.6 bn1.6 bn921.7 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2026 · 01 Feb 2026

Cash
1.8 bn USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
5.0 bn USD
Total assets
8.5 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
2.26x
ROE
34.0%
ROA
19.7%
FCF margin
8.3%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2024
9.6 bn
2025
10.6 bn
2026
11.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2024
4.0 bn
2025
4.3 bn
2026
4.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2024
5.6 bn
2025
6.3 bn
2026
6.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

SG&A
2024
3.4 bn
2025
3.8 bn
2026
4.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2024
2.1 bn
2025
2.5 bn
2026
2.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2024
379.4 m
2025
446.5 m
2026
496.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2024
2.5 bn ≈
2025
3.0 bn ≈
2026
2.7 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026derived

Pre-tax income
2024
2.2 bn
2025
2.6 bn
2026
2.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2024
625.5 m
2025
761.5 m
2026
659.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.8 bn
2026
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2024
12.20
2025
14.64
2026
13.26

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2024
127.1 m
2025
123.9 m
2026
119.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2024
2.2 bn
2025
2.0 bn
2026
1.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.4 bn
2026
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2024
4.1 bn
2025
4.0 bn
2026
4.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2024
1.5 bn
2025
1.8 bn
2026
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2024
24.1 m
2025
159.5 m
2026
184.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2024
0
2025
11.7 m
2026
6.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2024
7.1 bn
2025
7.6 bn
2026
8.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2024
348.4 m
2025
271.4 m
2026
331.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2024
0
2025
0
2026
—

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2025verified

Current liabilities
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.8 bn
2026
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2024
2.9 bn
2025
3.3 bn
2026
3.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2024
4.2 bn †
2025
4.3 bn †
2026
5.0 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2024
2.3 bn
2025
2.3 bn
2026
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2024
651.9 m
2025
689.2 m
2026
680.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2024
1.6 bn ≈
2025
1.6 bn ≈
2026
921.7 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2024
-654.1 m
2025
-798.2 m
2026
-662.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2024
-548.8 m
2025
-1.7 bn
2026
-1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2024
558.7 m
2025
1.6 bn
2026
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
4.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue CAGR 3Y
11.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Revenue CAGR 5Y
20.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EBIT growth (YoY)
-11.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income growth (YoY)
-13.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income CAGR 3Y
22.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Net income CAGR 5Y
21.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EPS growth (YoY)
-9.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EPS CAGR 3Y
25.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
EPS CAGR 5Y
24.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
FCF growth (YoY)
-41.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Profitability

Gross margin
56.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
EBITDA margin
22.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
EBIT margin
17.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
Net margin
12.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
FCF margin
12.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026

Returns

ROE
30.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
ROA
17.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
ROIC
42.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
ROCE
29.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
-1.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
Quick ratio
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
Cash ratio
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 02 Aug 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
2.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
Capital expenditure
627.7 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
Free cash flow
1.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
FCF conversion
95.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
Cash conversion
78.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
129 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
Days payables outstanding
27 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
11.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
Enterprise value
10.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
8.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
9.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
Earnings yield
10.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
P/B
2.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
P/S
1.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
EV/EBITDA
4.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
EV/EBIT
5.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
EV/Sales
0.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
P/FCF
8.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
FCF yield
11.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
9.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 88 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

112.06 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 11.8 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
11.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
9.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
P/B
2.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
EV/EBITDA
4.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
ROE
30.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
Net margin
12.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
4.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2026
Latest reported period: 02 Aug 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 02 Aug 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 28 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 03 Sept 2026
verified 2659derived 153

Score by group

  • Valuation85
  • Returns100
  • Quality94
  • Balance sheet73
  • Growth96

Estimated value range

Low
129.01
USD per share
Mid
175.38
USD per share
High
308.88
USD per share
Price: 112.06 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 56.5% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 36.1% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: same comparison basis (not independent confirmations) · 2 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 106.00 – 327.42 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA106.00 – 327.42 (Mid 152.54)
    6 companies used · median multiple 5.8x · quartiles 3.9x – 13.2x
    AS, CRI, GIII, GIL, JRSH, LEVI
  • Peers: P/E152.02 – 290.34 (Mid 198.22)
    10 companies used · median multiple 16.2x · quartiles 12.5x – 23.8x
    AS, BRIA, COLM, CRI, GIII, GIL, JRSH, LEVI, NCI, SGC
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Apparel & Other Finishd Prods of Fabrics & Similar Matl (SIC 2300)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 88/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality42.1%91 (vs peers)12%
Net margin · Quality12.8%100 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality95.5%94 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth11.0%92 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth25.7%100 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-0.6x63 (vs peers)12%
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.2x100 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation9.2x91 (vs peers)12%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation4.1x67 (vs peers)12%
FCF yield · Valuation11.4%100 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns9.8%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet73/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth96/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality94/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation85/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

lululemon athletica inc. (LULU). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-08-02.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 11.1 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 4.9%; net margin 12.8%; ROE 30.9%; net debt/EBITDA -0.6x.

The estimated value range is 129.01–308.88 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: same basis (multiples on one peer group, not independent confirmations)); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 175.38 USD, the price of 112.06 USD leaves a potential of 56.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 36.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 88/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 42.1%
  • Net margin: 12.8%
  • FCF conversion: 95.5%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 11.0%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 25.7%
  • Current ratio: 2.2x
  • P/E (TTM): 9.2x
  • FCF yield: 11.4%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 9.8%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Interest coverage, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Apparel & Other Finishd Prods of Fabrics & Similar Matl (SIC 2300) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 16 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
9.2x
vertical median 16.6x
below median (−44.6%)
EV/EBITDA
4.1x
vertical median 5.8x
below median (−29.0%)
P/S
1.1x
vertical median 0.5x
above median (+106.2%)
P/B
2.5x
vertical median 1.5x
above median (+68.4%)
ROE
30.9%
vertical median 9.0%
above median (+242.6%)
Net margin
12.8%
vertical median 4.9%
above median (+158.4%)
EBIT margin
17.8%
vertical median 7.4%
above median (+140.7%)
Revenue YoY
4.9%
vertical median 1.0%
above median (+398.7%)
Net debt/EBITDA
-0.6x
vertical median -0.0x
below median
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 2.4%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
ASAmer Sports, Inc.17.9 bn42.27.9%6.5%+26.7%−14% / unavailable
LULUlululemon athletica inc.11.8 bn9.230.9%12.8%+4.9%−30% / −73%
GILGildan Activewear Inc.8.0 bn16.615.9%11.0%+10.7%−22% / +19%
COLMColumbia Sportswear Company3.6 bn18.412.7%6.0%+0.9%+32% / −9%
GIIIG III Apparel Group Ltd1.4 bn10.87.7%4.8%−7.0%+14% / +15%
CRICarter’s, Inc.1.2 bn5.522.9%7.4%unavailable+5% / −51%
LEVILevi Strauss & Co894.9 m15.925.8%8.8%+4.1%+8% / +54%
SGCSuperior Group Of Companies, Inc.224.5 m25.64.3%1.4%+0.1%+45% / +18%
JRSHJerash Holdings (US), Inc.73.8 m15.37.6%2.8%+14.0%+87% / +103%
PASWPing An Biomedical Co., Ltd.60.1 m—-28.4%-37.6%unavailable+541% / unavailable
BRIABrilliA Inc34.5 m11.521.5%4.4%+15.1%−23% / unavailable
NCINeo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited12.8 m63.10.6%0.2%−41.9%−93% / unavailable
GOOSCanada Goose Holdings Inc.——19.8%7.0%+1.1%−36% / −20%
UAUnder Armour, Inc.——-29.8%-10.0%−3.8%+26% / −27%
LANVLanvin Group Holdings Limited——-200.4%-50.3%−22.9%−60% / −79%
ZGNErmenegildo Zegna N.V.——10.1%5.1%−1.5%+39% / +30%
FIGSFIGS, Inc.067.014.8%8.7%+13.6%+124% / +202%

1- and 3-year price returns: for LULU from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
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Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
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Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
77.65
Total return -31% · Per year -31%
136.87
Total return 22% · Per year 22%
205.61
Total return 83% · Per year 83%
3 years
85.58
Total return -24% · Per year -9%
168.74
Total return 51% · Per year 15%
276.84
Total return 147% · Per year 35%
5 years
94.33
Total return -16% · Per year -3%
208.04
Total return 86% · Per year 13%
372.73
Total return 233% · Per year 27%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 42.19
  • Net margin± 29.53
  • Annual revenue growth± 22.81
  • Annual dilution± 2.48

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

lululemon athletica inc. designs, distributes and retails technical athletic apparel, footwear and accessories through an omnichannel network of company-operated stores and e-commerce. The company is under pressure: Americas revenue has declined, guidance for 2026 points to a decline, while China Mainland and Rest of World have grown.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The premium brand and its global recognition are presented as a central advantage 1.
  • The omnichannel model and vertical distribution control allow a direct connection with customers 1.
  • Growth in China Mainland and other international regions shows room for expansion 1.

Weaknesses

  • Declining comparable sales in the Americas, the largest market, show dependence on a shrinking region 12.
  • Margins have fallen under pressure from tariffs and markdowns 1.
  • The company depends on a relatively small number of vendors for manufacturing and fabrics 1.

Opportunities

  • Growing the men's category and accessories could open new revenue sources 1.
  • Opening new company-operated stores in growing markets could support sales 1.
  • A recovery in Americas sales could be supported by new products and better product activation 1.

Threats

  • US trade policy and tariff changes could further reduce margins 12.
  • Competition and cheap imitations could erode the brand premium 1.
  • Geopolitical uncertainty and currency volatility could affect financial results 2.

Risks

  • Decline in the Americashigh

    Lower traffic and conversion in the Americas could persist if remediation actions do not work as planned 12.

  • Tariffs and trade policyhigh

    Tariff changes and the removal of the de minimis exemption could reduce gross margin further 12.

  • Leadership transitionmedium

    The departure of the chief executive and the interim leadership period could create uncertainty and affect strategy 13.

  • Competition and imitationmedium

    Competing products and cheap imitations could reduce market share and brand premium 1.

  • Supplier dependencemedium

    Concentration of production with a few vendors could expose the company to supply chain disruption 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If Americas sales stabilize, the company could benefit from its premium brand and loyal customer base 1.
  • Growth in China Mainland and Rest of World could continue to offset the decline in the Americas 12.
  • Tariff refunds and cost control could support margins in the coming periods 23.

What would break the thesis

  • If the decline in the Americas persists, revenue and profit could remain below earlier levels 13.
  • Tariffs and trade policy changes could reduce margins more than expected 12.
  • Competition and imitation could weaken the brand premium and force price reductions 1.

What to watch

  • Delivery against the fiscal 2026 net revenue outlook2026
  • Development of Americas comparable salesQ3 2026
  • Final amount of IEEPA tariff refundsnext 10-K
  • Effect of the new chief executive on strategy2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

The company is a designer, distributor and retailer of technical athletic apparel, footwear and accessories under the lululemon brand, with a stated purpose to help people feel their best 1. Net revenue in fiscal 2025 reached 11.1 billion USD, up 5% 1. The model is omnichannel, combining company-operated stores, e-commerce, wholesale, outlets and the Like New re-commerce program 1. Products are made by external vendors, with no owned manufacturing facilities 1.

Net revenue is seasonal, with the fourth fiscal quarter typically generating a substantial share of operating profit, notably the holiday season in the Americas 1.

The company operates 825 company-operated stores at the end of the second quarter of fiscal 2026 3.

Segments

Americas

Americas generated 71% of net revenue in 2025 but declined slightly, reflecting a comparable sales decrease and tariff pressure 1. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026 Americas revenue fell 8% and comparable sales fell 12% 2.

China Mainland

China Mainland represented 16% of net revenue in 2025 and grew strongly, with the most company-operated store openings expected in 2026 1. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026 revenue rose slightly but comparable sales declined 2.

Rest of World

Rest of World, covering APAC and EMEA, represented 13% of net revenue in 2025 and expanded through company-operated stores and licensed partners in the Middle East 1. The company intends to keep investing in these markets 1.

Market context

The athletic apparel market is highly competitive, with global, regional and specialized players, and pricing and margins are under pressure 1. The company has noted that dupe and imitation products could affect the brand premium 1. Consumer preferences shift quickly, which makes product innovation essential 1.

The macroeconomic environment, trade policy and US tariffs directly affect costs and margins 12. The company said it could recover part of the tariffs paid earlier, but the final amount remains uncertain 2.

Trends

  • US tariffsheadwind

    Higher tariffs and the removal of the de minimis exemption reduced gross margin and are described as a significant adverse effect 1. The company received IEEPA tariff refunds in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 3.

  • Tariff refundsmixed

    IEEPA tariff refunds temporarily improved gross margin and profit, but future amounts remain uncertain 2.

  • Growth in Asia and Europetailwind

    Revenue in China Mainland and Rest of World grew in 2025, supported by new stores and brand awareness 1.

  • Decline in North Americaheadwind

    Weaker traffic and conversion in the Americas were the main pressure on results 12.

Competitive position

The company competes with large apparel and sporting goods companies with global brand recognition, as well as regional and specialized retailers in yoga and activewear 1. Differentiation rests on premium brand image, technical innovation and its vertical distribution model 1.

Competition is intensifying through new entrants and cheaper imitations, and the company acknowledges it cannot fully protect all its intellectual property 1. Long-term success depends on maintaining brand differentiation 1.

  • NikeNKE

    Global sporting goods company with strong brand recognition, part of the large apparel companies the filing describes as competitors 1.

  • Large diversified apparel companies

    Broad apparel groups expanding technical performance products and marketing, referred to generically in the filing 1.

  • Regional and specialized retailers

    Local and niche competitors, including those focused on yoga or women's athletic apparel, referred to in the filing 1.

  • Commodity athletic apparel sellers

    Sellers of basic items such as cotton T-shirts and sweatshirts that draw from the same customer segments 1.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 04 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 22 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

  • Current report22 Oct 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report07 Oct 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report14 Sept 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Amendments to articles or bylaws · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report03 Sept 2026
  • Current report03 Sept 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report13 Aug 2026
    Other events
  • Current report26 Jun 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote
  • Quarterly report04 Jun 2026
  • Current report04 Jun 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report27 May 2026
    Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-02-01 · SEC / lululemon athletica inc. · 17 Mar 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-08-02 · SEC / lululemon athletica inc. · 03 Sept 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / lululemon athletica inc. · 03 Sept 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.