olivLaw · US equity research
ManpowerGroup Inc. MAN
Services-Help Supply Services · SIC 7363 · Vertical: Services-Help Supply Services (SIC 7363)
ManpowerGroup is a global workforce solutions company operating through a network of about 2100 offices in more than 70 countries and territories, under the Manpower, Experis and Talent Solutions brands. In the third quarter of 2026 revenues reached 4.8 billion USD, and management describes 2026 as an inflection point for the business.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN) stock was 46.27 USD (−1.41% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.2 bn USD, P/E 18.2 on diluted EPS of 2.54 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.11%, beta 0.63, 52-week range 25.75–62.95 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 4.8 bn USD (+4.4% YoY), net income of 34.1 m USD (+89.4% YoY), diluted EPS 0.71 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 42.8
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 40.30 – 52.89
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.47 · band width 27.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 53.21 / 40.19
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -1.86 / -2.32
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −10.8% | −5.9% | −4.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | −16.4% | −4.6% | −11.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | +52.0% | +0.2% | +51.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | +55.6% | +7.4% | +48.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +55.4% | +8.2% | +47.2 pp | +18.6% |
| 3 years | −37.1% | +68.4% | −105.5 pp | −39.5% |
| 5 years | −55.1% | +56.5% | −111.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.4 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.8 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 3.6 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.1 bn |
| Gross profit | 755.1 m | 698.3 m | 763.7 m | 768.9 m | 766.7 m | 723.0 m | 780.3 m | 767.3 m |
| SG&A | 686.9 m | 670.1 m | 789.0 m | 702.3 m | 686.1 m | — | 668.3 m | 685.0 m |
| Operating income | 68.2 m | 28.2 m | -25.3 m | 66.6 m | 80.6 m | 28.3 m | 112.0 m | 82.3 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 21.8 m | 21.2 m | 22.2 m ≈ | 22.1 m ≈ | 20.5 m | 20.2 m | 21.5 m ≈ | 20.4 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | -157.0 m | 22.5 m | 26.0 m | 24.0 m | -167.9 m | 25.7 m | 23.8 m | 28.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 47.7 m | 16.7 m | -41.8 m | 52.9 m | 65.6 m | 15.4 m | 92.4 m | 68.0 m |
| Income tax | 25.2 m | 11.1 m | 25.3 m | 34.9 m | 35.4 m | 12.9 m | 38.9 m | 33.9 m |
| Net income | 22.5 m | 5.6 m | -67.1 m | 18.0 m | 30.2 m | 2.5 m | 53.5 m | 34.1 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.47 ≈ | 0.12 | -1.44 | 0.38 | 0.65 ≈ | 0.05 | 1.13 | 0.71 |
| Operating cash flow | 247.6 m | -153.2 m | -189.6 m ≈ | 59.8 m ≈ | 178.9 m | -126.3 m | -2.7 m ≈ | -8.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 11.3 m | 13.7 m | 17.6 m ≈ | 15.1 m ≈ | 10.9 m | 9.0 m | 5.8 m ≈ | 8.8 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 72.3 m | — | — | 0 ≈ | 33.4 m | — | — | 0 ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 34.0 m | 25.0 m | 13.2 m ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | 300.0 k | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 67 percentile of its own 36-quarter history (min 7.5, median 15.5, max 209.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 22.0 bn | 20.9 bn | 18.0 bn | 20.7 bn | 19.8 bn | 18.9 bn | 17.9 bn | 18.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +4.5% | −5.1% | −13.7% | +15.1% | −4.3% | −4.6% | −5.6% | +0.6% |
| Net income | 556.7 m | 465.7 m | 23.8 m | 382.4 m | 373.8 m | 88.8 m | 145.1 m | -13.3 m |
| Net income YoY | +2.1% | −16.3% | −94.9% | +1,506.7% | −2.2% | −76.2% | +63.4% | −109.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 8.56 | 7.72 | 0.41 | 6.91 | 7.08 | 1.76 | 3.01 | -0.29 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +6.5% | −9.8% | −94.7% | +1,585.4% | +2.5% | −75.1% | +71.0% | −109.6% |
| net % | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | -0.1% |
| Free cash flow | 418.4 m | 761.5 m | 885.7 m | 580.6 m | 347.7 m | 270.0 m | 258.1 m | -161.4 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 871.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 1.7 bn USD
- Net debt
- 806.1 m USD
- Equity
- 2.1 bn USD
- Total assets
- 9.2 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.81x
- Current ratio
- 1.11x
- ROE
- -0.6%
- ROA
- -0.2%
- FCF margin
- -0.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 18.0 bn | 20.7 bn | 19.8 bn | 18.9 bn | 17.9 bn | 18.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 15.2 bn | 17.3 bn | 16.3 bn | 15.6 bn | 14.8 bn | 15.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 2.8 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 2.6 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 187.6 m | 585.4 m | 581.7 m | 255.8 m | 306.0 m | 150.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 76.3 m | 73.4 m | 84.6 m | 88.6 m | 86.6 m | 86.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 263.9 m ≈ | 658.8 m ≈ | 666.3 m ≈ | 344.4 m ≈ | 392.6 m ≈ | 236.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 43.3 m | 38.8 m | -46.9 m | -79.7 m | -90.0 m | -95.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 147.7 m | 568.1 m | 557.1 m | 205.9 m | 256.8 m | 93.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 123.9 m | 185.7 m | 183.3 m | 117.1 m | 111.7 m | 106.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 23.8 m | 382.4 m | 373.8 m | 88.8 m | 145.1 m | -13.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.41 | 6.91 | 7.08 | 1.76 | 3.01 | -0.29 | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 58.3 m | 55.4 m | 52.8 m | 50.4 m | 48.3 m | 46.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 2.26 | 2.52 | 2.72 | 2.94 | 3.08 | 1.44 | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.6 bn | 847.8 m | 639.0 m | 581.3 m | 509.4 m | 871.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 4.9 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.1 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 6.7 bn | 6.4 bn | 5.9 bn | 5.6 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 135.1 m | 116.8 m | 112.2 m | 129.9 m | 118.4 m | 123.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 1.2 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 248.6 m | 583.6 m | 549.5 m | 519.6 m | 486.1 m | 430.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 9.3 bn | 9.8 bn | 9.1 bn | 8.8 bn | 8.2 bn | 9.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 20.4 m | 552.6 m | 26.6 m | 12.1 m | 23.4 m | 625.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.1 bn | 565.7 m | 959.9 m | 990.5 m | 929.4 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 4.7 bn | 5.8 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.4 bn | 5.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 936.4 m | 644.8 m | 423.3 m | 348.2 m | 309.2 m | -104.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 50.7 m | 64.2 m | 75.6 m | 78.2 m | 51.1 m | 57.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 885.7 m ≈ | 580.6 m ≈ | 347.7 m ≈ | 270.0 m ≈ | 258.1 m ≈ | -161.4 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -42.4 m | -987.0 m | -85.3 m | -74.1 m | -68.2 m | -59.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -435.2 m | -283.7 m | -482.1 m | -349.5 m | -282.4 m | 485.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 129.1 m | 136.6 m | 139.9 m | 144.3 m | 145.8 m | 66.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 264.7 m | 210.0 m | 270.0 m | 179.8 m | 140.0 m | 38.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 49 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 2.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Quality61
- Growth0
- Balance sheet59
- Returns27
- Valuation56
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 15.33 – 153.58 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)15.33 – 28.79 (Mid 20.37)WACC 8.4% · starting FCFF 83.3 m USD · terminal value share of EV 75%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 27.7%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA75.40 – 153.58 (Mid 82.54)3 companies used · median multiple 10.7x · quartiles 9.9x – 19.3xDLHC, EFOR, NSP
- Peers: P/E50.11 – 68.74 (Mid 59.27)7 companies used · median multiple 23.4x · quartiles 19.7x – 27.1xAMN, BBSI, EFOR, HQI, KFRC, RCMT, RHI
- Dividend discount (DDM)18.92 – 25.45 (Mid 21.71)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 49/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 10.3% | 100 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Net margin · Quality | 0.6% | 56 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 6.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -3.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 92 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.4x | 29 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.1x | 21 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 18.2x | 75 (vs peers) | 11% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 6.4x | 78 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 0.3% | 4 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.1% | 45 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 904.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet59/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality61/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns27/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation56/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
MANPOWERGROUP INC. (MAN). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 18.0 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 0.6%; net margin 0.6%; ROE 5.8%; net debt/EBITDA 0.8x.
The estimated value range is 34.52–48.76 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 40.49 USD, the price of 46.27 USD leaves a potential of -12.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -14.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 49/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 10.3%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.8x
- P/E (TTM): 18.2x
- EV/EBITDA: 6.4x
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: 6.2%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -3.2%
- Interest coverage: 3.4x
- Current ratio: 1.1x
- FCF yield: 0.3%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 904.1%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y.
Versus the vertical median
Services-Help Supply Services (SIC 7363) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 16 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RHIRobert Half Inc. | 4.4 bn | 35.6 | 9.8% | 2.3% | −7.2% | +59% / −48% |
| MANManpowergroup Inc. | 2.2 bn | 18.2 | 5.8% | 0.6% | +0.6% | +55% / −37% |
| NSPInsperity, Inc. | 1.9 bn | 554.9 | 4.6% | 0.0% | +3.5% | +44% / −55% |
| AMNAmn Healthcare Services, Inc. | 1.8 bn | 17.7 | 15.6% | 3.1% | −8.5% | +185% / −30% |
| EFOREverforth, Inc. | 1.5 bn | 21.8 | 3.7% | 1.7% | −2.9% | −21% / −60% |
| KFRCKforce Inc | 997.7 m | 23.4 | 30.5% | 3.0% | −5.4% | +89% / −20% |
| BBSIBarrett Business Services, Inc. | 728.3 m | 24.2 | 13.9% | 2.4% | +8.4% | −13% / +11% |
| TBITrueBlue, Inc. | 376.8 m | — | -15.9% | -2.6% | +3.1% | +152% / −11% |
| HQIHireQuest, Inc. | 239.2 m | 30.0 | 12.1% | 27.1% | −11.4% | +98% / +16% |
| RCMTRcm Technologies, Inc. | 226.3 m | 13.8 | 39.5% | 5.1% | unavailable | +63% / +18% |
| TTECTTEC Holdings, Inc. | 73.0 m | — | -108.2% | -10.2% | −3.2% | −56% / −92% |
| DLHCDlh Holdings Corp. | 52.6 m | — | -20.8% | -8.5% | −13.0% | −42% / −74% |
| BGSFBgsf, Inc | 37.5 m | — | -4.4% | -2.3% | −10.6% | −24% / −64% |
| STRRStar Equity Holdings, Inc. | 35.0 m | — | -18.2% | -4.3% | +22.9% | −6% / −40% |
| CIRCCircle8 Group Inc. | 23.5 m | — | — | -19.4% | −1.5% | −90% / −95% |
| YFORYY Group Holding Ltd. | 3.9 m | — | -94.1% | -11.8% | +29.4% | −100% / unavailable |
| KELYAKelly Services, Inc. | — | — | -11.9% | -3.1% | −1.9% | +63% / −32% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MAN from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 25.70 Total return -42% · Per year -42% | 45.63 Total return 2% · Per year 2% | 68.98 Total return 53% · Per year 53% |
| 3 years | 21.21 Total return -48% · Per year -20% | 42.71 Total return 1% · Per year 0% | 71.41 Total return 66% · Per year 18% |
| 5 years | 17.50 Total return -53% · Per year -14% | 39.98 Total return 1% · Per year 0% | 73.94 Total return 79% · Per year 12% |
- Exit P/E± 10.68
- Net margin± 7.47
- Annual revenue growth± 6.63
- Annual dilution± 0.63
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 15 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (30 Oct 2026).
In brief
ManpowerGroup is a global workforce solutions company operating through a network of about 2100 offices in more than 70 countries and territories, under the Manpower, Experis and Talent Solutions brands. In the third quarter of 2026 revenues reached 4.8 billion USD, and management describes 2026 as an inflection point for the business.
SWOT
Strengths
- The global network and well-known brands, built over more than 75 years, give the company a clear advantage with large clients 1.
- Geographic diversification and a mix of staffing, recruitment and consulting services reduce dependence on any single market 1.
- Career management services run counter-cyclically and can offset declines in temporary staffing 1.
Weaknesses
- Gross margins are relatively thin, and shifts in business mix have pressured margins in some quarters 2.
- Administrative costs are hard to reduce quickly, so profit falls sharply when demand weakens 1.
- Heavy exposure to Europe makes the company sensitive to economic and political developments on the continent 1.
Opportunities
- A recovery in demand in key markets and growth of the Manpower brand could support a return to profitable growth 23.
- Extending the transformation program beyond the United States could reduce structural costs and improve margins 3.
- Demand for upskilling and data-driven assessments could grow as skills shortages persist 1.
Threats
- Automation through artificial intelligence could replace some services performed by the company's employees 1.
- Price competition and low-cost alternatives, including in-house resources, could limit the firm's market share 1.
- A recession in Europe or the United States could reduce demand and pressure profitability 1.
Risks
- Economic slowdownhigh
If the global economy enters an extended period of weak growth, demand for staffing services could decline significantly 1.
- Exposure to Europehigh
Europe accounts for most of the business, and geopolitical events or sanctions could affect results directly 1.
- Price competitionmedium
Pressure from competitors and from clients who choose in-house solutions could reduce the company's margins 1.
- Currency riskmedium
Exchange rate changes could affect reported results, particularly in markets with high inflation 23.
- Regulation and litigationlow
Employment law, licensing requirements and possible claims from employees or clients could raise operating costs 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand in the United States and the wider Americas keeps growing, operating profit could benefit from operating leverage on the fixed cost base 23.
- The transformation program and cost reduction could lead to better margins even without a large increase in revenue 3.
- A global leadership position and established brands could attract large clients that prefer providers with international coverage 1.
What would break the thesis
- If Europe remains weak, the segments that generate most of the revenue could limit overall growth 1.
- Restructuring and transformation costs could continue to weigh on profit in the coming quarters 3.
- Automation and price competition could gradually reduce the company's market share in some services 1.
What to watch
- Demand trends in Europe and profit of the French divisionQ4 2026
- Delivery against the guided fourth-quarter diluted earnings per share rangeQ4 2026
- Executive leadership transition to the new management structure2027
- Progress of the transformation program and cost savingsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 15 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (30 Oct 2026).
The business
The company offers recruitment and assessment, upskilling and training, career management, outsourcing of some human resources functions and workforce consulting, according to its 2025 annual report 1. Services are delivered through branch and franchise offices, and the Manpower, Experis and Talent Solutions brands cover different parts of the market. The company describes its workforce as roughly 25400 employees, which underlines the scale of its operations 1.
Demand for the company's services depends on the overall strength of the labor market and the trend toward more flexible workforces. When economic growth accelerates, revenue and profitability can rise, while in contractions selling and administrative costs are hard to cut, weighing on operating profit 1. The career management unit, Right Management, has historically been counter-cyclical to staffing, which could partly offset an economic downturn 1.
Accounts receivable is the most significant current asset, with days sales outstanding of 55 days as of December 31, 2025, while payroll costs are paid weekly or monthly 1. This structure means working capital needs tend to rise as demand grows, with an effect on operating cash flows 1.
Segments
Americas
The Americas segment includes the United States, where 63% of the region's revenue is generated, and significant operations in Canada, Mexico and Colombia 1. In the second quarter of 2026 Americas revenue rose 14.4% year over year, driven mainly by demand for Manpower staffing services 2.
Northern Europe
The segment includes the United Kingdom, the Nordics, Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium, with operations in the United Kingdom also conducted under the Brook Street brand 1. Revenue grew in the third quarter of 2026 and segment profit returned to positive territory after a loss in the prior year 3.
Market context
The employment services industry is large and fragmented, with thousands of firms and no single company holding a dominant share of the market 1. Demand depends on the economic cycle, and in 2026 the company sees improving hiring across many key markets, although employers remain cautious in their workforce planning 2. Europe represents 65% of the company's revenue, which makes the path of the European economy decisive 1.
Large clients, who account for about 60% of revenue, tend to work with several providers in parallel, which favors firms with extensive networks 1. Price pressure is constant, and the rise of artificial intelligence tools could reduce demand for some services performed by people 1.
Trends
- Demand recovery in 2026tailwind
The company reports that labor demand improved in the second quarter of 2026 and that the Manpower brand is growing strongly, which could support higher revenue if the trend continues 2. Management links this to the idea that 2026 is an inflection point 3.
- Transformation and cost reductionmixed
The strategic transformation program and cost-saving measures have been extended beyond the United States, and the company says it remains on track toward its savings target 3. If the savings materialize, operating margins could improve, although restructuring costs still weigh on quarterly profit 3.
Competitive position
The largest publicly owned recruitment companies are The Adecco Group and Randstad, and the company also competes with regional and specialized firms such as Kelly Services, Robert Half and Korn/Ferry International 1. Its advantage comes from well-known brands, geographic diversification and network size 1.
Competition is intense and entry barriers are low in many markets, which lets small firms compete mainly at the local level 1. Small and medium clients prefer local relationships, while large clients look for providers with extensive networks, where the company has an advantage 1.
- The Adecco Group
The largest publicly owned company specializing in recruitment services, named in the company's annual report 1.
- Randstad
Another major publicly owned recruitment player identified by the company as a direct competitor 1.
- Robert HalfRHI
Recruitment firm with its own operations, named among the regional or specialized competitors 1.
- Kelly Services
Staffing services company that competes with the group's staffing business 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Clashes Near Kyiv Highlight Tension Over Military Manpower ChallengesRFE/RL — English (regional) · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- No plans for female conscription, South Korean military manpower chief saysThe Straits Times — Asia · 12 Oct 2026 · EN
- Military manpower agency chief voices regret over Asian Games footballers' gloating about military exemptionYonhap News (KR, EN) · 12 Oct 2026 · EN
- How Taiwan’s military manpower shortage is undermining its ability to fightSouth China Morning Post — China · 11 Oct 2026 · EN
- Can women solve Ukraine's manpower problem?Kyiv Independent (UA, EN) · 07 Oct 2026 · EN
- Russia’s ‘Dramatic’ Manpower Shortage Is Reshaping Its War Tactics | Bohdan NahayloKyiv Post · 18 Aug 2026 · EN
- Russia to Free Up Manpower by Replacing Border Troops With North Korean Soldiers, Ukraine SaysKyiv Post · 17 Aug 2026 · EN
- Syrsky Says Russia's Large-Scale Offensive Has Failed Despite Manpower AdvantageKyiv Post · 10 Jul 2026 · RO
- Can Taiwan fix its military manpower shortage by training reservists in advanced weapons?South China Morning Post — China · 03 Jul 2026 · RO
- Can automation offset Japan’s military manpower shortage?The Japan Times · 21 Jun 2026 · RO
SEC filings
- Quarterly report30 Oct 2026
- Current report28 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report15 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report15 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report11 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 Aug 2026
- Current report16 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report08 May 2026
- Current report08 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Amendments to articles or bylaws · Shareholder vote · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report16 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / ManpowerGroup Inc. · 23 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / ManpowerGroup Inc. · 07 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / ManpowerGroup Inc. · 15 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.