olivLaw · US equity research
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. NBIX
Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) · SIC 2836 · Vertical: Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) (SIC 2836)
Neurocrine Biosciences is a neuroscience-focused biopharmaceutical company developing and commercializing treatments for neurological, psychiatric, endocrine and immunological disorders, with INGREZZA and CRENESSITY as its main revenue drivers. Its relevance now lies in fast sales growth, the Soleno acquisition and late-stage psychiatry trials, with total net product sales of 2833.9 million USD in fiscal 2025.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX) stock was 166.05 USD (+0.73% on the day), with market capitalisation 16.8 bn USD, P/E 24.6 on diluted EPS of 6.74 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.80, 52-week range 123.10–185.50 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.1 bn USD (+41.2% YoY), net income of 206.5 m USD (−1.4% YoY), diluted EPS 1.96 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 77.2
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 128.03 – 160.09
- above the upper band · %B 1.19 · band width 22.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 146.98 / 147.76
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 3.15 / 0.26
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +15.1% | −1.1% | +16.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | +2.8% | −0.5% | +3.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | +12.9% | +4.4% | +8.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +17.1% | +12.3% | +4.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +16.0% | +13.5% | +2.4 pp | −3.8% |
| 3 years | +47.7% | +76.4% | −28.7 pp | +18.6% |
| 5 years | +78.1% | +63.7% | +14.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 627.7 m | 572.6 m | 687.5 m | 794.9 m | 805.5 m | 814.5 m | 959.0 m | 1.1 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 9.3 m | 9.2 m | 11.3 m | 14.0 m | 17.6 m | 13.8 m | 23.2 m | 26.6 m |
| SG&A | 287.8 m | 276.5 m | 286.3 m | 291.6 m | 301.8 m | 318.5 m | 439.7 m | 366.3 m |
| Operating income | 142.0 m | 23.6 m | 145.6 m | 239.0 m | 210.9 m | 193.4 m | 151.5 m | 331.3 m |
| Interest expense | — | — | 0 | 0 | — | — | 2.9 m | 300.0 k |
| Pre-tax income | 162.6 m | 14.7 m | 159.5 m | 291.8 m | 239.4 m | 246.8 m | 162.2 m | 283.7 m |
| Income tax | 59.5 m | 6.8 m | 52.0 m | 82.3 m | 85.7 m | 48.9 m | 17.8 m | 77.2 m |
| Net income | 103.1 m | 7.9 m | 107.5 m | 209.5 m | 153.7 m | 197.9 m | 144.4 m | 206.5 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.00 ≈ | 0.08 | 1.06 | 2.04 | 1.48 ≈ | 1.91 | 1.39 | 1.96 |
| Operating cash flow | 242.5 m | 64.8 m | 102.0 m ≈ | 227.5 m ≈ | 388.4 m | 145.8 m | 136.4 m ≈ | 395.2 m ≈ |
| Capex | 7.3 m | 10.7 m | 12.5 m ≈ | 13.2 m ≈ | -2.4 m | 9.1 m | 7.8 m ≈ | 11.6 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 300.0 m | 150.0 m | 17.7 m ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | 54.0 m | 12.0 m ≈ | 92.1 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 16 percentile of its own 32-quarter history (min 20.3, median 50.7, max 2,459.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | ⚠ 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 451.2 m | 788.1 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.9 bn |
| Revenue YoY | — | +74.7% | +32.7% | +8.4% | +31.3% | +26.8% | +24.8% | +21.4% |
| Net income | 21.1 m | 37.0 m | 407.3 m | 89.6 m | 154.5 m | 249.7 m | 341.3 m | 478.6 m |
| Net income YoY | — | +75.4% | +1,000.8% | −78.0% | +72.4% | +61.6% | +36.7% | +40.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.22 | 0.39 | 4.16 | 0.92 | 1.56 | 2.47 | 3.29 | 4.67 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | — | +77.3% | +966.7% | −77.9% | +69.6% | +58.3% | +33.2% | +41.9% |
| net % | 4.7% | 4.7% | 38.9% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 14.5% | 16.7% |
| Free cash flow | 76.6 m | 132.3 m | 217.6 m | 233.1 m | 322.9 m | 361.6 m | 557.2 m | 748.7 m |
The series breaks before 2018: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 713.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 3.3 bn USD
- Total assets
- 4.6 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 3.39x
- ROE
- 16.4%
- ROA
- 11.5%
- FCF margin
- 26.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 10.1 m | 14.3 m | 23.2 m | 39.7 m | 34.0 m | 52.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.0 bn ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | 2.3 bn ≈ | 2.8 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived |
| SG&A | 433.3 m | 583.3 m | 752.7 m | 887.6 m | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 163.0 m | 102.5 m | 249.0 m | 250.9 m | 570.5 m | 619.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 32.8 m | 25.8 m | 7.1 m | 4.6 m | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2024verified |
| Pre-tax income | 106.7 m | 101.4 m | 213.9 m | 332.1 m | 486.0 m | 705.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -300.6 m | 11.8 m | 59.4 m | 82.4 m | 144.7 m | 226.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 407.3 m | 89.6 m | 154.5 m | 249.7 m | 341.3 m | 478.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 4.16 | 0.92 | 1.56 | 2.47 | 3.29 | 4.67 | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 97.8 m | 97.9 m | 98.9 m | 101.0 m | 103.7 m | 102.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 187.1 m | 340.8 m | 262.9 m | 251.1 m | 233.0 m | 713.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 157.1 m | 185.5 m | 350.0 m | 439.3 m | 479.1 m | 686.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 28.0 m | 30.5 m | 35.1 m | 38.3 m | 57.4 m | 69.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.0 bn | 972.8 m | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 44.6 m | 58.6 m | 58.6 m | 70.8 m | 82.6 m | 89.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | 0 | 5.4 m | 5.8 m | 5.7 m | 6.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jul 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 0 | 37.2 m | 35.5 m | 36.5 m | 4.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jul 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.7 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.7 bn | 4.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 168.7 m | 225.8 m | 347.6 m | 448.8 m | 461.6 m | 674.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 186.5 m | 245.8 m | 537.7 m | 654.8 m | 507.7 m | 743.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 608.5 m | 698.5 m | 660.9 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.1 bn † | 1.4 bn † | 1.7 bn † | 2.2 bn † | 2.6 bn † | 3.3 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 228.5 m | 256.5 m | 339.4 m | 389.9 m | 595.4 m | 782.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 10.9 m | 23.4 m | 16.5 m | 28.3 m | 38.2 m | 34.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 217.6 m ≈ | 233.1 m ≈ | 322.9 m ≈ | 361.6 m ≈ | 557.2 m ≈ | 748.7 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 4.1 m | -130.2 m | -177.1 m | -467.1 m | -126.8 m | -264.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -157.8 m | 27.4 m | -234.3 m | 65.3 m | -486.7 m | -38.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | 0 | 0 | 300.0 m | 167.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 16.8 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
58% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 146.55 – 258.91 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E146.55 – 258.91 (Mid 186.91)5 companies used · median multiple 27.7x · quartiles 21.7x – 38.4xADMA, ALVO, AMGN, EXEL, HALO
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 19.0% | 87 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 148.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 24.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 44.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.0x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 24.6x | 71 (vs peers) | 18% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 6.2% | 77 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.9% | 13 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality93/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial13/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation74/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, INC. (NBIX). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 21.4%; net margin 19.0%; ROE 20.4%.
The estimated value range is 146.55–258.91 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 186.91 USD, the price of 166.05 USD leaves a potential of 12.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 11.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 19.0%
- FCF conversion: 148.0%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 24.3%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 44.1%
- Current ratio: 2.0x
- P/E (TTM): 24.6x
- FCF yield: 6.2%
What contradicts it
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.9%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) (SIC 2836) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMGNAmgen Inc. | 258.8 bn | 27.7 | 78.4% | 24.1% | +10.0% | +39% / +77% |
| GILDGilead Sciences, Inc. | 216.4 bn | — | -22.3% | -12.5% | +2.4% | +39% / +128% |
| MRNAModerna, Inc. | 103.2 bn | — | -39.0% | -141.4% | −39.9% | +895% / +233% |
| RVMDRevolution Medicines, Inc. | 43.2 bn | — | -93.6% | -946.8% | unavailable | +157% / +756% |
| BIIBBiogen Inc. | 37.6 bn | 108.8 | 1.9% | 3.4% | +2.2% | +40% / +9% |
| MESOMesoblast Limited | 18.5 bn | — | -19.0% | -593.9% | +191.4% | −17% / +425% |
| EXELExelixis, Inc. | 17.8 bn | 21.7 | 44.3% | 35.5% | +7.0% | +65% / +234% |
| NBIXNeurocrine Biosciences, Inc. | 16.8 bn | 24.6 | 20.4% | 19.0% | +21.4% | +16% / +48% |
| HALOHalozyme Therapeutics, Inc. | 14.8 bn | 38.4 | 173.7% | 24.9% | +37.6% | +83% / +238% |
| KYMRKymera Therapeutics, Inc. | 11.6 bn | — | -27.3% | -341.8% | −16.7% | +101% / +556% |
| TWSTTwist Bioscience Corporation | 8.9 bn | — | -29.6% | -31.7% | +20.3% | +345% / +493% |
| SCNIScinai Immunotherapeutics Ltd. | 6.2 bn | — | -91.9% | -633.6% | +99.2% | −96% / −99% |
| CGONCG Oncology, Inc. | 6.0 bn | — | -26.4% | -3,602.7% | +254.7% | +51% / unavailable |
| TARSTarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 3.4 bn | — | -319.8% | -102.9% | +146.7% | −14% / +318% |
| DNLIDenali Therapeutics Inc. | 3.4 bn | — | -33.9% | -1,470.5% | unavailable | +8% / +13% |
| VCELVericel Corporation | 2.3 bn | 107.7 | 7.2% | 7.9% | +16.5% | +13% / +28% |
| ADMAAdma Biologics, Inc. | 2.3 bn | 13.6 | 41.9% | 35.1% | +19.6% | −45% / +183% |
| BCRXBiocryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 2.1 bn | — | — | -37.4% | +94.1% | +15% / +40% |
| VIRVir Biotechnology, Inc. | 2.0 bn | — | -21.8% | -61.0% | −7.6% | +83% / +24% |
| ALVOAlvotech | 1.5 bn | 46.7 | — | 4.8% | +19.7% | −8% / −51% |
| INBXInhibrx Biosciences, Inc. | 1.3 bn | — | -1,773.6% | — | +550.0% | +3% / unavailable |
| EVAXEvaxion A | 1.2 bn | — | -100.2% | -102.4% | +125.1% | −50% / −93% |
| CADLCandel Therapeutics, Inc. | 692.5 m | — | -81.8% | — | 0.0% | +90% / +907% |
| SRZNSurrozen, Inc. | 372.0 m | — | — | -2,885.3% | −67.4% | +91% / +340% |
| AUTLAutolus Therapeutics plc | 367.3 m | — | -133.0% | -238.7% | +644.9% | −2% / −68% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NBIX from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 111.77 Total return -33% · Per year -33% | 196.69 Total return 18% · Per year 18% | 295.04 Total return 78% · Per year 78% |
| 3 years | 132.57 Total return -20% · Per year -7% | 260.12 Total return 57% · Per year 16% | 424.85 Total return 156% · Per year 37% |
| 5 years | 157.25 Total return -5% · Per year -1% | 344.01 Total return 107% · Per year 16% | 611.79 Total return 268% · Per year 30% |
- Exit P/E± 65.03
- Net margin± 45.52
- Annual revenue growth± 33.95
- Annual dilution± 3.83
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (02 Nov 2026).
In brief
Neurocrine Biosciences is a neuroscience-focused biopharmaceutical company developing and commercializing treatments for neurological, psychiatric, endocrine and immunological disorders, with INGREZZA and CRENESSITY as its main revenue drivers. Its relevance now lies in fast sales growth, the Soleno acquisition and late-stage psychiatry trials, with total net product sales of 2833.9 million USD in fiscal 2025 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- A portfolio of FDA-approved products with strong sales growth, and CRENESSITY as the first therapy in its class for CAH, provides a solid commercial base 12.
- The company has a specialized sales force and market experience in neurology and psychiatry, which supports adoption of products in rare diseases 1.
- A diversified pipeline with late-stage programs and a strategy of periodic launches reduces long-term dependence on a single product 13.
Weaknesses
- Reliance on INGREZZA for a major part of revenue exposes the company to competitive pressure and falling net prices 1.
- Research and commercial spending have risen sharply, and cash fell significantly after the acquisition, with cash and securities at June 30, 2026 well below year-end 2025 levels 13.
- The company depends on third parties for manufacturing and on a limited number of suppliers, which can create supply problems 1.
Opportunities
- Phase 3 launches for major depressive disorder and schizophrenia could open large markets if results are positive 13.
- Integrating VYKAT XR could expand the rare-disease portfolio, and expanding existing indications could support long-term growth 23.
- Early-stage programs in obesity and metabolic disease could open new markets if clinical data are favorable 1.
Threats
- Government pressure on prices and reimbursement policies could limit revenues and delay sustained profitability 1.
- Competition from companies with greater resources and from generic products could reduce demand for existing products 1.
- Clinical trial setbacks, such as the missed primary endpoints for valbenazine in schizophrenia and a candidate in depression, could affect growth plans 3.
Risks
- Dependence on INGREZZAhigh
A large share of revenue comes from a single product, and any fall in demand or net price could materially affect financial results 1.
- Clinical trial failurehigh
Some phase 3 studies did not meet their primary endpoints, and new candidates could delay or stop planned launches 13.
- Integration of the Soleno acquisitionmedium
Integrating VYKAT XR and amortizing acquired assets could slow profitability, and integration costs may remain high 23.
- Liquidity and indebtednessmedium
The acquisition significantly reduced available cash, and drawing on the credit line could increase debt if cash flows do not improve 23.
- Reliance on third parties for manufacturingmedium
The company has no manufacturing capacity of its own, and problems at suppliers or in compliance inspections could affect product supply 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Sales growth in recent quarters, including for CRENESSITY and VYKAT XR, suggests the commercial strategy is working and revenues could keep rising 23.
- If phase 3 launches for depression and schizophrenia are favorable, the company could enter large markets with differentiated therapies 13.
- The rare-disease portfolio, protected by exclusivity, together with raised INGREZZA guidance, offers a fairly predictable revenue base in the coming years 13.
What would break the thesis
- Dependence on one major product and pricing pressure from payors could limit growth if competition intensifies 1.
- The Soleno acquisition and rising research and commercial spending have reduced liquidity, and profitability could stay under pressure in the short term 23.
- Recent clinical setbacks show that development is uncertain, and delayed launches could affect growth plans 3.
What to watch
- Phase 3 results for osavampator in major depressive disorder2027
- Phase 3 results for direclidine in schizophrenia2027
- Integration of VYKAT XR and sales trend after the Soleno acquisitionQ3 2026
- INGREZZA net price trend and effects of reimbursement policiesnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (02 Nov 2026).
The business
The company describes its purpose as 'to relieve suffering for people with great needs' and focuses on under-addressed disorders in neurology, psychiatry, endocrinology and immunology 1. Its FDA-approved portfolio includes INGREZZA for tardive dyskinesia and chorea associated with Huntington's disease, CRENESSITY for classic congenital adrenal hyperplasia, and products developed with AbbVie for endometriosis and uterine fibroids 1. After the Soleno acquisition in May 2026, it added VYKAT XR for hyperphagia in Prader-Willi syndrome 2.
The operating model is largely outsourced: production relies on third-party manufacturers, INGREZZA is distributed through a limited specialty network, and CRENESSITY through a single specialty pharmacy provider 1. The company maintains a specialized sales force of about 600 professionals in the U.S. and has announced an expansion to support product growth 1.
Beyond marketed products, the company has mid- and late-stage candidates, including osavampator for major depressive disorder and direclidine for schizophrenia, with initial topline data expected in 2027 13. The strategy aims to launch on average about one new medicine every two years 1.
Segments
INGREZZA
INGREZZA generated 2513.7 million USD in net product sales in fiscal 2025 and remains the main product, with second-quarter 2026 sales growing 15% year over year 13. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised in July 2026 3.
Market context
The target market includes patients with tardive dyskinesia and Huntington's chorea; the company estimates that TD affects approximately 800000 people in the U.S., and CAH affects at least 20000 people in the U.S. 1. Reimbursement is a key factor, with coverage and prices shaped by government policy and private payors 1.
The company also operates in areas of high unmet need such as major depressive disorder and schizophrenia, where existing therapies have significant side effects, so new mechanisms could become differentiated if phase 3 data are favorable 1.
Trends
- CRENESSITY launch and physician adoptiontailwind
Adoption of CRENESSITY is rising as physicians and patients become familiar with the first therapy in its class, and better reimbursement could accelerate sales, while the company must keep investing in physician education 12.
- Pricing pressure and reimbursement rulesheadwind
Government drug price controls and negotiation could limit revenues, and the company notes that new market access investments reduced the net price of INGREZZA 1.
- Expansion into rare diseases through acquisitionmixed
The Soleno acquisition brings VYKAT XR and additional revenue, but it also adds integration costs and significant amortization of acquired intangible assets 23.
- Investment in late-stage pipelinemixed
Research spending is rising for phase 3 programs in MDD and schizophrenia, which could support new launches if results are good, but also pressures near-term margins 13.
Competitive position
In tardive dyskinesia and Huntington's chorea, INGREZZA competes with AUSTEDO, marketed by Teva Pharmaceuticals, which also has a once-daily version, as well as off-label medicines 1. In CAH, CRENESSITY faces the standard of care of high-dose corticosteroids made by more than two dozen companies in the U.S. 1.
In psychiatry, new candidates will compete with existing antipsychotic and antidepressant medicines and with development programs at other companies, and larger competitors have advantages in capital and commercial experience 1.
- Teva PharmaceuticalsTEVA
Markets AUSTEDO, a direct competitor to INGREZZA in tardive dyskinesia and Huntington's chorea, including a once-daily form 1.
- Corticosteroid manufacturers for CAH
More than two dozen companies manufacture steroid-based products that form the current standard of care competing with CRENESSITY 1.
- Companies with antipsychotic and antidepressant programs
Several companies have approved or developing medicines for schizophrenia and depression with which the company's candidates could compete 1.
- Companies with Huntington's and CAH programs in development
Several other companies have clinical programs targeting the same conditions, and competition could intensify 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- STAT+: Concerns grow on safety issues tied to Neurocrine Biosciences rare disease drugSTAT News · 13 Oct 2026 · EN
- Neurocrine’s (NBIX) Data Deluge Reshapes A Familiar Growth StoryYahoo Finance — News · 18 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 13 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 02 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report02 Nov 2026
- Current report02 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report (amendment)31 Jul 2026Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report31 Jul 2026
- Current report30 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote
- Current report18 May 2026Material agreement · Acquisition or disposition of assets · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 May 2026
- Current report05 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. · 11 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. · 31 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.