olivLaw · US equity research
Otter Tail Corporation OTTR
Electric Services · SIC 4911 · Vertical: Electric Services (SIC 4911)
Otter Tail Corporation is a Minnesota-based diversified group combining a regulated electric utility with manufacturing and PVC pipe businesses. In 2026 the company booked a quarterly loss from an antitrust settlement, which sharply reduced its reported EPS guidance while adjusted guidance stayed high.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Otter Tail Corporation (OTTR) stock was 83.82 USD (+0.49% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.5 bn USD, P/E 20.0 on diluted EPS of 4.19 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.69%, beta 0.39, 52-week range 80.31–94.28 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 317.2 m USD (−2.7% YoY), net income of 59.5 m USD (−24.0% YoY), diluted EPS 1.41 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 32.9
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 85.00 – 93.18
- below the lower band · %B -0.14 · band width 9.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 89.10 / 88.81
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.56 / 0.02
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −5.2% | −1.1% | −4.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −9.8% | −0.5% | −9.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | −5.7% | +4.4% | −10.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +3.7% | +12.3% | −8.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +2.2% | +13.5% | −11.3 pp | −8.3% |
| 3 years | +1.1% | +76.4% | −75.3 pp | +40.4% |
| 5 years | +27.4% | +63.7% | −36.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 302.9 m | 337.3 m | 332.4 m | 325.9 m | 304.0 m | 342.9 m | 334.7 m | 317.2 m |
| Cost of revenue | 91.6 m | 104.4 m | 106.0 m | 101.2 m | 91.1 m | 107.5 m | 118.4 m | 119.5 m |
| SG&A | 24.2 m | 21.3 m | 17.4 m | 17.8 m | 26.1 m | 21.8 m | 22.2 m | 20.1 m |
| Operating income | 66.8 m | 84.0 m | 97.5 m | 96.6 m | 67.6 m | 85.2 m | -24.2 m | 68.9 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 27.5 m | 29.4 m | 29.4 m | 29.6 m | 29.7 m | 30.0 m | 30.8 m | 30.6 m |
| Interest expense | 10.6 m | 11.6 m | 11.7 m | 11.8 m | 12.2 m | 12.6 m | 12.9 m | 13.1 m |
| Income tax | 8.2 m | 10.1 m | 13.7 m | 12.8 m | 9.8 m | 4.9 m | -21.2 m | 4.5 m |
| Net income | 54.9 m | 68.1 m | 77.7 m | 78.3 m | 51.8 m | 72.6 m | -7.6 m | 59.5 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.30 ≈ | 1.62 | 1.85 | 1.86 | 1.23 ≈ | 1.73 | -0.18 | 1.41 |
| Operating cash flow | 130.0 m | 39.5 m | 119.9 m ≈ | 129.6 m ≈ | 97.0 m | 70.6 m | 112.1 m ≈ | 125.2 m ≈ |
| Capex | 98.9 m | 58.0 m | 66.2 m ≈ | 89.1 m ≈ | 74.7 m | 185.3 m | 139.5 m ≈ | 126.8 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 19.6 m | 22.0 m | 22.0 m ≈ | 22.0 m ≈ | 22.0 m | 24.3 m | 24.3 m ≈ | 24.3 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 63 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 8.7, median 16.5, max 26.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 916.4 m | 919.5 m | 883.2 m | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +7.9% | +0.3% | −4.0% | +35.6% | +22.7% | −7.9% | −1.7% | −2.3% |
| Net income | 82.3 m | 86.8 m | 95.9 m | 176.8 m | 284.2 m | 294.2 m | 301.7 m | 275.9 m |
| Net income YoY | +13.7% | +5.5% | +10.4% | +84.4% | +60.8% | +3.5% | +2.5% | −8.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.06 | 2.17 | 2.34 | 4.23 | 6.78 | 7.00 | 7.17 | 6.55 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +13.2% | +5.3% | +7.8% | +80.8% | +60.3% | +3.2% | +2.4% | −8.6% |
| net % | 9.0% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 14.8% | 19.3% | 21.7% | 22.7% | 21.2% |
| Free cash flow | 38.0 m | -22.3 m | -159.6 m | 59.4 m | 218.2 m | 117.4 m | 94.1 m | 97.9 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 386.2 m USD
- Financial debt
- 1.0 bn USD
- Net debt
- 637.6 m USD
- Equity
- 1.9 bn USD
- Total assets
- 4.0 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.55x
- Current ratio
- 2.28x
- ROE
- 15.6%
- ROA
- 7.2%
- FCF margin
- 7.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 883.2 m | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 329.3 m | 488.4 m | 542.9 m | 454.1 m | 434.5 m | 402.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 553.9 m ≈ | 709.3 m ≈ | 926.5 m ≈ | 899.4 m ≈ | 895.5 m ≈ | 897.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived |
| SG&A | — | 65.4 m | 69.7 m | 72.7 m | 80.1 m | 82.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 147.9 m | 249.7 m | 390.4 m | 377.9 m | 380.3 m | 345.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 82.0 m | 91.4 m | 92.6 m | 98.0 m | 107.1 m | 118.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 229.9 m ≈ | 341.1 m ≈ | 483.0 m ≈ | 475.9 m ≈ | 487.4 m ≈ | 463.8 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 34.4 m | 37.8 m | 36.0 m | 37.7 m | 41.8 m | 47.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 116.1 m | 212.8 m | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Feb 2022verified |
| Income tax | 20.2 m | 36.1 m | 73.4 m | 69.3 m | 65.2 m | 46.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 95.9 m | 176.8 m | 284.2 m | 294.2 m | 301.7 m | 275.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.34 | 4.23 | 6.78 | 7.00 | 7.17 | 6.55 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 40.9 m | 41.8 m | 41.9 m | 42.0 m | 42.1 m | 42.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.48 | 1.56 | 1.65 | 1.75 | 1.87 | 2.10 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.2 m | 1.5 m | 119.0 m | 230.4 m | 294.7 m | 386.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 92.2 m | 148.5 m | 146.0 m | 149.7 m | 148.9 m | 158.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 234.8 m | 369.4 m | 452.8 m | 570.2 m | 630.0 m | 799.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 142.4 m | 178.7 m | 171.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 37.6 m | 37.6 m | 37.6 m | 37.6 m | 37.6 m | 37.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 10.1 m | 9.0 m | 7.9 m | 6.8 m | 5.7 m | 4.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 2.6 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.7 bn | 4.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 120.6 m | 135.1 m | 104.4 m | 94.4 m | 113.6 m | 93.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 81.0 m | 91.2 m | 8.2 m | 81.4 m | 69.6 m | 60.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 624.4 m | 734.0 m | 823.8 m | 824.1 m | 943.7 m | 963.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 436.8 m | 387.7 m | 237.6 m | 309.8 m | 309.8 m | 351.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 871.0 m † | 990.8 m † | 1.2 bn † | 1.4 bn † | 1.7 bn † | 1.9 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 211.9 m | 231.2 m | 389.3 m | 404.5 m | 452.7 m | 386.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 371.6 m | 171.8 m | 171.1 m | 287.1 m | 358.7 m | 288.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -159.6 m ≈ | 59.4 m ≈ | 218.2 m ≈ | 117.4 m ≈ | 94.1 m ≈ | 97.9 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -375.7 m | -171.5 m | -175.1 m | -289.3 m | -411.4 m | -290.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 143.7 m | -59.4 m | -96.8 m | -3.8 m | 22.9 m | -3.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 60.3 m | 64.9 m | 68.8 m | 73.1 m | 78.3 m | 88.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 2.1 m | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2021verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
3 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 51 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 3.5 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet75
- Growth0
- Quality71
- Returns50
- Valuation46
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 27.60 – 101.61 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)27.60 – 37.11 (Mid 31.65)
- Peers: EV/EBITDA52.97 – 78.88 (Mid 68.13)19 companies used · median multiple 11.8x · quartiles 9.8x – 13.3xAEP, AQN, BKH, CEG, CNP, CWEN, D, EIX, ES, ETR, HE, NEE, NRG, OGE, POR, SO, SPRU, TXNM, VST
- Peers: P/E85.62 – 101.61 (Mid 92.77)16 companies used · median multiple 22.2x · quartiles 20.4x – 24.3xAEP, AQN, BKH, CEG, CNP, D, ES, ETR, FE, NEE, NRG, OGE, POR, PPL, SO, VST
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 51/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 6.2% | 64 (vs peers) | 6% |
| Net margin · Quality | 13.6% | 78 (vs peers) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -4.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -1.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 2.9x | 77 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.9x | 68 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 84 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 20.0x | 68 (vs peers) | 13% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 13.9x | 19 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | 2.7% | 32 (vs peers) | 15% |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | 53.9% | 94 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet75/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality71/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Returns50/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation46/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
Memo
OTTER TAIL CORPORATION (OTTR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -2.3%; net margin 13.6%; ROE 9.4%; net debt/EBITDA 2.9x.
The estimated value range is 52.97–78.88 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 68.13 USD, the price of 83.82 USD leaves a potential of -18.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -23.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 51/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 13.6%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 2.9x
- Current ratio: 1.4x
- Payout ratio (EPS): 53.9%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -4.0%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -1.1%
- EV/EBITDA: 13.9x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Versus the vertical median
Electric Services (SIC 4911) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEENextera Energy Inc | 184.4 bn | 22.5 | 15.6% | 31.5% | +9.8% | +3% / +51% |
| SOSouthern Co | 105.0 bn | 23.9 | 11.3% | 14.5% | +10.6% | +2% / +31% |
| PAMPampa Energy Inc. | 88.2 bn | 141.0 | 21.8% | 33.0% | +8.3% | −28% / +38% |
| CEGConstellation Energy Corporation | 87.1 bn | 24.0 | 15.3% | 11.1% | +8.3% | −33% / +103% |
| AEPAmerican Electric Power Company, Inc. | 70.3 bn | 19.0 | 12.8% | 16.9% | +10.9% | +4% / +62% |
| DDominion Energy, Inc | 61.3 bn | 20.6 | 10.5% | 16.9% | +14.2% | +11% / +54% |
| ETREntergy Corp | 51.2 bn | 28.4 | 11.1% | 13.6% | +9.0% | +15% / +121% |
| VSTVistra Operations Company LLC | 40.4 bn | 19.9 | 43.1% | 11.6% | +3.0% | −33% / +240% |
| FEFirstenergy Corp | 27.3 bn | 25.7 | 8.4% | 6.9% | +12.0% | −1% / +28% |
| PPLPPL Corp | 26.9 bn | 21.8 | 8.3% | 13.1% | +6.9% | −3% / +37% |
| CNPCenterpoint Energy Inc | 26.8 bn | 25.2 | 9.6% | 11.4% | +8.3% | +3% / +45% |
| ESEversource Energy | 26.5 bn | 18.2 | 9.1% | 10.4% | +13.8% | +5% / +19% |
| EIXEdison International | 23.7 bn | 6.5 | 20.8% | 19.6% | +9.8% | +4% / −8% |
| NRGNRG Energy, Inc | 17.5 bn | 21.6 | 23.8% | 2.6% | +9.2% | −51% / +74% |
| TLNTalen Energy Corporation | 14.2 bn | — | -16.7% | -6.4% | +22.0% | −17% / +470% |
| OGEOge Energy Corp. | 10.4 bn | 22.5 | 9.6% | 14.0% | +9.2% | +11% / +44% |
| BEPBrookfield Renewable Partners L.P. | 8.5 bn | — | -1.9% | -1.1% | +9.0% | +8% / +25% |
| CWENClearway Energy, Inc. | 7.3 bn | 72.6 | 1.8% | 6.4% | +4.2% | −2% / +43% |
| TXNMTXNM Energy, Inc. | 6.5 bn | 41.1 | 5.5% | 7.5% | +9.9% | +0% / +41% |
| BKHBlack Hills Corporation | 6.4 bn | 21.3 | 7.9% | 13.0% | +8.6% | +14% / +63% |
| ORAOrmat Technologies, Inc. | 5.8 bn | 46.3 | 5.0% | 10.7% | +12.5% | −16% / +40% |
| PORPortland General Electric Company | 5.5 bn | 19.7 | 6.6% | 7.7% | +4.0% | −9% / +12% |
| BEPCBrookfield Renewable Corporation | 5.4 bn | — | -501.4% | -62.9% | −10.0% | −24% / +19% |
| OKLOOklo Inc. | 4.1 bn | — | -7.7% | — | unavailable | −76% / +114% |
| OTTROtter Tail Corporation | 3.5 bn | 20.0 | 9.4% | 13.6% | −2.3% | +2% / +1% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for OTTR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 45.41 Total return -44% · Per year -44% | 80.64 Total return -1% · Per year -1% | 121.95 Total return 49% · Per year 49% |
| 3 years | 36.85 Total return -51% · Per year -21% | 74.30 Total return -4% · Per year -1% | 124.38 Total return 58% · Per year 16% |
| 5 years | 29.91 Total return -56% · Per year -15% | 68.46 Total return -6% · Per year -1% | 126.85 Total return 67% · Per year 11% |
- Exit P/E± 18.57
- Net margin± 13.00
- Annual revenue growth± 11.62
- Annual dilution± 1.09
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
Otter Tail Corporation is a Minnesota-based diversified group combining a regulated electric utility with manufacturing and PVC pipe businesses. In 2026 the company booked a quarterly loss from an antitrust settlement, which sharply reduced its reported EPS guidance while adjusted guidance stayed high 123.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a diversified portfolio, with a regulated utility that brings predictable earnings and a long history of dividend payments 1.
- The utility's rate base grows through approved investments, and the investment grade credit profile is supported by the structure of the business 1.
- Total available liquidity at the end of the second quarter of 2026 gives a safety margin for the investment program 3.
Weaknesses
- Earnings are concentrated in Plastics, which depends on PVC prices and which produced a large loss due to litigation 13.
- A significant share of segment revenue comes from a small number of large customers, and losing some of them would weigh on results 1.
- Operating and maintenance costs in the utility rose in 2026, which reduced quarterly Electric earnings 2.
Opportunities
- If permits for large transmission projects and new solar facilities are obtained on time, the company could expand its rate base 3.
- A recovery in demand for equipment manufacturing could support Manufacturing margins if the trend holds 3.
- Investment in renewables and battery storage could reduce emissions and attract funding linked to climate policies 1.
Threats
- If PVC prices fall more than expected, Plastics earnings could drop below current estimates 1.
- Ongoing litigation and investigations related to Plastics could generate further non-recurring expenses 12.
- Trade policy changes and tariffs on components for renewable projects could raise investment costs 1.
Risks
- Antitrust litigationhigh
The settlement agreements in the PVC industry produced a large loss, and court approval is not yet assured 23.
- PVC price normalizationhigh
If PVC pipe prices fall more than estimated, Plastics earnings could stay below earlier levels 1.
- Regulatory approvalsmedium
Recovery of rate base investments depends on decisions by regulatory commissions, and delays or reductions could affect earnings 12.
- Input costs and supply chainmedium
Supply chain disruptions and tariffs on components could delay projects or make them more expensive 1.
- Weather and extreme eventslow
Unusual weather and extreme events can affect power demand and interrupt operations, especially in the Gulf Coast region that supplies PVC resin 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If rate base investments are recovered as planned, the Electric segment could support long-term earnings growth 13.
- Adjusted 2026 guidance was raised, which points to stronger operating performance than the reported result shows 3.
- Better Manufacturing demand and strong Plastics volumes in the second quarter could support results if the trend holds 3.
What would break the thesis
- The large quarterly loss and the lower reported guidance show that litigation can quickly erase operating gains 23.
- If PVC prices keep falling, Plastics could contribute less than in recent years, which would change the earnings mix 1.
- Higher operating and maintenance costs in Electric could narrow the utility's margin if they are not recovered through rates 2.
What to watch
- Court approval of the antitrust settlement agreements2026
- PVC prices and Plastics segment earnings trendQ3 2026
- Regulatory decisions on rates in Minnesota and South Dakota2026
- Delivery against the adjusted 2026 EPS guidancenext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
Otter Tail Corporation is a holding company with three reportable segments: Electric, Manufacturing and Plastics 1. The Electric segment, led by Otter Tail Power, is a vertically integrated, regulated utility serving about 134000 customers across western Minnesota, eastern North Dakota and northeastern South Dakota 1. The company targets a 7 to 9 percent long-term EPS growth rate, with a target earnings mix of about 70 percent from Electric 1.
Segments
Electric
The Electric segment generates, transmits and distributes power, and growth comes from investments added to its rate base. Projects such as the Abercrombie solar facility, with an estimated capital investment of about 450 million USD, expand its renewable generation 1.
Market context
The electricity market in which the company operates is largely regulated and monopolistic within its service territories, though competition comes from rural cooperatives, municipal systems and distributed generation 1. The market for PVC water pipe depends on municipal demand and resin prices, and management expects these conditions to gradually normalize through 2027 1.
Trends
- Normalization of PVC pricingheadwind
PVC pipe prices have declined since their 2022 peak, which reduced Plastics segment earnings; management expects the market to gradually normalize through 2027 1. If that normalization occurs, Plastics earnings could settle at a more moderate level.
- Investment in renewables and the rate basetailwind
The utility's capital program, including wind upgrades and solar projects, grows the rate base and supports Electric earnings 13. Recovery of these investments depends on regulatory approvals.
- PVC antitrust litigationmixed
The company agreed to pay a sum to settle class actions in the PVC industry, which produced a large loss in the second quarter of 2026 23. Reduced legal uncertainty could support long-term investor confidence.
- Better demand in equipment manufacturingtailwind
In the second quarter of 2026, demand rose in segments such as recreational vehicles, construction and horticulture, and Manufacturing reported higher revenue 3. This recovery could prove temporary if macroeconomic conditions weaken.
Competitive position
In electric service, competition comes from municipal systems, rural electric cooperatives and on-site generators, and customers can supply some of their own power through distributed generation 1. In Plastics the company competes with other PVC water pipe producers, and prices depend on demand and resin costs 1.
- Municipal and rural electric cooperatives
Electric suppliers operating within Otter Tail Power's service territories, present in many rural communities.
- Municipally owned electric systems
Municipally owned electric systems that can compete in certain service areas.
- On-site and distributed generation providers
Generators and solar or storage systems installed by customers that can reduce demand for utility power.
- PVC pipe producers serving western United States
Producers of PVC water and sewer pipe competing in municipal markets across the western country.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report03 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report01 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report04 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 Jun 2026Material agreement
- Current report05 Jun 2026Creation of a direct financial obligation
- Current report29 May 2026Material agreement
- Current report15 May 2026Other events
- Quarterly report06 May 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Otter Tail Corporation · 18 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Otter Tail Corporation · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Otter Tail Corporation · 04 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.