olivLaw · US equity research
TXNM Energy, Inc. TXNM
Electric Services · SIC 4911 · Vertical: Electric Services (SIC 4911)
TXNM Energy is a holding company based in Albuquerque that owns two regulated electric utilities, PNM in New Mexico and TNMP in Texas, serving about 846,000 customers. The company is going through a heavy grid investment cycle driven by rising demand, while the pending acquisition by Blackstone Infrastructure is still awaiting approvals.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) stock was 58.49 USD (−0.12% on the day), with market capitalisation 6.5 bn USD, P/E 41.1 on diluted EPS of 1.42 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.85%, beta 0.27, 52-week range 56.40–59.48 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q1 2026): revenue of 505.0 m USD (+4.6% YoY), net income of 8.0 m USD (−37.4% YoY), diluted EPS 0.03 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 50.6
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 58.32 – 58.75
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.40 · band width 0.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 58.32 / 58.40
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.06 / 0.08
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −0.0% | −1.1% | +1.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | +2.0% | −0.5% | +2.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | −1.2% | +4.4% | −5.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | −0.7% | +12.3% | −13.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +2.7% | +13.5% | −10.8 pp | −5.5% |
| 3 years | +37.9% | +76.4% | −38.5 pp | +39.1% |
| 5 years | +20.5% | +63.7% | −43.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q1 2026 · 31 Mar 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q2 '24 | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 488.1 m | 569.3 m | 477.0 m | 482.8 m | 502.4 m | 647.2 m | 533.2 m | 505.0 m |
| Gross profit | 198.5 m | 297.3 m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | 105.7 m | 191.1 m | 76.1 m | 71.9 m | 72.7 m | 202.9 m | 93.7 m | 77.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 103.4 m ≈ | 107.6 m ≈ | 109.1 m | 114.3 m | 120.9 m ≈ | 125.9 m ≈ | 122.3 m | 125.4 m |
| Interest expense | 55.8 m | 59.7 m | 58.8 m | 63.6 m | 72.0 m | 70.1 m | 65.8 m | 68.6 m |
| Pre-tax income | 60.9 m | 159.8 m | 21.7 m | 13.8 m | 27.3 m | 155.3 m | -16.4 m | 8.0 m |
| Income tax | 9.0 m | 23.4 m | 1.7 m | 1.0 m | 1.3 m | 18.9 m | -11.1 m | -9.0 k |
| Net income | 52.0 m | 136.4 m | 20.0 m | 12.8 m | 26.0 m | 136.3 m | -5.3 m | 8.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.53 | 1.45 | 0.22 ≈ | 0.10 | 0.22 | 1.22 | -0.05 ≈ | 0.03 |
| Operating cash flow | 76.7 m ≈ | 180.0 m ≈ | 158.6 m | 141.3 m | 3.5 m ≈ | 282.0 m ≈ | 157.7 m | 153.2 m |
| Capex | 292.7 m ≈ | 323.7 m ≈ | 341.5 m | 342.6 m | 266.2 m ≈ | 277.3 m ≈ | 309.8 m | 312.7 m |
| Dividends paid | 35.1 m ≈ | 35.1 m ≈ | 35.1 m | 37.9 m | 37.9 m ≈ | 43.1 m ≈ | 44.5 m | 46.2 m |
| Share repurchases | 808.0 k ≈ | 1.7 m ≈ | 477.0 k | 6.3 m | 1.9 m ≈ | 184.0 k ≈ | 3.5 m | 5.4 m |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 86 percentile of its own 36-quarter history (min 16.0, median 23.8, max 70.4; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | −0.6% | +1.5% | +4.5% | +16.9% | +26.4% | −13.8% | +1.7% | +9.9% |
| Net income | 101.3 m | 92.1 m | 187.3 m | 211.8 m | 185.2 m | 106.9 m | 258.7 m | 169.8 m |
| Net income YoY | +26.8% | −9.0% | +103.3% | +13.1% | −12.6% | −42.3% | +142.1% | −34.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.07 | 0.97 | 2.15 | 2.27 | 1.97 | 1.02 | 2.67 | 1.48 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +7.0% | −9.3% | +121.6% | +5.6% | −13.2% | −48.2% | +161.8% | −44.6% |
| net % | 7.1% | 6.3% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 13.1% | 7.8% |
| Free cash flow | -73.0 m | -113.1 m | -193.3 m | -387.1 m | -345.3 m | -524.6 m | -738.9 m | -611.4 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 18.3 m USD
- Financial debt
- 5.3 bn USD
- Net debt
- 5.3 bn USD
- Equity
- 3.4 bn USD
- Total assets
- 12.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 1.54x
- Current ratio
- 0.55x
- ROE
- 5.6%
- ROA
- 1.5%
- FCF margin
- -28.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 606.7 m | 648.9 m | 740.5 m | 655.8 m | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Feb 2024verified |
| Operating income | 285.3 m | 308.2 m | 393.8 m | 231.3 m | 453.5 m | 441.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 314.7 m | 320.2 m | 341.1 m | 353.7 m | 423.0 m | 483.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 599.9 m ≈ | 628.4 m ≈ | 734.9 m ≈ | 585.0 m ≈ | 876.5 m ≈ | 924.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 114.4 m | 96.9 m | 127.9 m | 190.4 m | 228.1 m | 271.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 208.0 m | 244.4 m | 211.3 m | 90.5 m | 280.2 m | 180.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 20.6 m | 32.6 m | 26.1 m | -16.4 m | 21.5 m | 10.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 187.3 m | 211.8 m | 185.2 m | 106.9 m | 258.7 m | 169.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.15 | 2.27 | 1.97 | 1.02 | 2.67 | 1.48 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 80.3 m | 86.1 m | 86.2 m | 86.4 m | 90.6 m | 102.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.25 | 1.33 | 1.41 | 1.49 | 1.57 | 1.65 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 47.9 m | 1.1 m | 4.1 m | 2.2 m | 4.5 m | 18.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 113.4 m | 123.3 m | 183.7 m | 126.3 m | 130.4 m | 151.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 66.4 m | 65.1 m | 66.7 m | 98.0 m | 166.9 m | 181.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 377.5 m | 324.6 m | 411.0 m | 475.5 m | 498.8 m | 564.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 278.3 m | 278.3 m | 278.3 m | 278.3 m | 278.3 m | 278.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 7.9 bn | 8.7 bn | 9.3 bn | 10.3 bn | 11.2 bn | 12.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 169.3 m | 172.6 m | 215.7 m | 205.2 m | 204.5 m | 243.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 32.0 m | 62.7 m | 232.0 m | 261.9 m | 609.3 m | 181.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 2.7 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.3 bn | 5.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 977.7 m | 664.2 m | 890.4 m | 1.2 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 5.8 bn | 6.4 bn | 7.0 bn | 7.8 bn | 8.6 bn | 8.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 485.7 m | 547.9 m | 567.3 m | 551.2 m | 508.2 m | 584.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 679.0 m | 935.0 m | 912.6 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -193.3 m ≈ | -387.1 m ≈ | -345.3 m ≈ | -524.6 m ≈ | -738.9 m ≈ | -611.4 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -733.8 m | -952.3 m | -950.3 m | -1.1 bn | -1.2 bn | -1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 292.2 m | 357.6 m | 386.0 m | 537.1 m | 684.4 m | 642.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 98.5 m | 113.0 m | 119.8 m | 126.7 m | 140.3 m | 163.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 12.0 m | 10.1 m | 8.0 m | 9.6 m | 8.5 m | 12.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
3 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 22 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score < 40 · (margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 6.5 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet13
- Valuation30
- Quality40
- Growth3
- Returns28
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 19.32 – 65.71 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)21.68 – 29.16 (Mid 24.87)
- Peers: EV/EBITDA19.32 – 65.71 (Mid 41.42)20 companies used · median multiple 10.6x · quartiles 8.0x – 13.4xAEP, CEG, CNP, CWEN, D, DTB, EIX, ELLO, ES, ETR, HE, HNRG, IDA, NEE, NRG, POR, SO, SPRU, TVC, VST
- Peers: P/E28.53 – 34.05 (Mid 31.52)14 companies used · median multiple 22.2x · quartiles 20.1x – 23.9xAEP, CEG, CNP, D, ES, ETR, FE, IDA, NEE, NRG, POR, PPL, SO, VST
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 22/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 5.1% | 33 (vs peers) | 6% |
| Net margin · Quality | 7.5% | 46 (vs peers) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -1.3% | 7 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -9.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 5.7x | 25 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 1.6x | 3 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.5x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 41.1x | 20 (vs peers) | 13% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 12.6x | 41 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | 2.8% | 40 (vs peers) | 15% |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | 117.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet13/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth3/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality40/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Returns28/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation30/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
Memo
TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-03-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.2 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 9.9%; net margin 7.5%; ROE 5.5%; net debt/EBITDA 5.7x.
The estimated value range is 21.68–34.05 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 31.52 USD, the price of 58.49 USD leaves a potential of -46.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -85.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 22/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -1.3%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -9.1%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 5.7x
- Interest coverage: 1.6x
- Current ratio: 0.5x
- P/E (TTM): 41.1x
- Payout ratio (EPS): 117.0%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Versus the vertical median
Electric Services (SIC 4911) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEENextera Energy Inc | 184.4 bn | 22.5 | 15.6% | 31.5% | +9.8% | +3% / +51% |
| SOSouthern Co | 105.0 bn | 23.9 | 11.3% | 14.5% | +10.6% | +2% / +31% |
| PAMPampa Energy Inc. | 88.2 bn | 141.0 | 21.8% | 33.0% | +8.3% | −28% / +38% |
| CEGConstellation Energy Corporation | 87.1 bn | 24.0 | 15.3% | 11.1% | +8.3% | −33% / +103% |
| AEPAmerican Electric Power Company, Inc. | 70.3 bn | 19.0 | 12.8% | 16.9% | +10.9% | +4% / +62% |
| DDominion Energy, Inc | 61.3 bn | 20.6 | 10.5% | 16.9% | +14.2% | +11% / +54% |
| ETREntergy Corp | 51.2 bn | 28.4 | 11.1% | 13.6% | +9.0% | +15% / +121% |
| VSTVistra Operations Company LLC | 40.4 bn | 19.9 | 43.1% | 11.6% | +3.0% | −33% / +240% |
| FEFirstenergy Corp | 27.3 bn | 25.7 | 8.4% | 6.9% | +12.0% | −1% / +28% |
| PPLPPL Corp | 26.9 bn | 21.8 | 8.3% | 13.1% | +6.9% | −3% / +37% |
| CNPCenterpoint Energy Inc | 26.8 bn | 25.2 | 9.6% | 11.4% | +8.3% | +3% / +45% |
| ESEversource Energy | 26.5 bn | 18.2 | 9.1% | 10.4% | +13.8% | +5% / +19% |
| EIXEdison International | 23.7 bn | 6.5 | 20.8% | 19.6% | +9.8% | +4% / −8% |
| NRGNRG Energy, Inc | 17.5 bn | 21.6 | 23.8% | 2.6% | +9.2% | −51% / +74% |
| TLNTalen Energy Corporation | 14.2 bn | — | -16.7% | -6.4% | +22.0% | −17% / +470% |
| IDAIDACORP, Inc. | 8.7 bn | 23.2 | 9.9% | 20.5% | −1.2% | +12% / +53% |
| BEPBrookfield Renewable Partners L.P. | 8.5 bn | — | -1.9% | -1.1% | +9.0% | +8% / +25% |
| CWENClearway Energy, Inc. | 7.3 bn | 72.6 | 1.8% | 6.4% | +4.2% | −2% / +43% |
| TXNMTXNM Energy, Inc. | 6.5 bn | 41.1 | 5.5% | 7.5% | +9.9% | +3% / +38% |
| ORAOrmat Technologies, Inc. | 5.8 bn | 46.3 | 5.0% | 10.7% | +12.5% | −16% / +40% |
| PORPortland General Electric Company | 5.5 bn | 19.7 | 6.6% | 7.7% | +4.0% | −9% / +12% |
| BEPCBrookfield Renewable Corporation | 5.4 bn | — | -501.4% | -62.9% | −10.0% | −24% / +19% |
| KENKenon Holdings Ltd. | 3.3 bn | 49.6 | 4.1% | 7.6% | +16.1% | +6% / +190% |
| DTBDte Energy Co | 3.2 bn | 2.5 | 10.4% | — | +18.6% | −15% / −26% |
| HEHawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. | 1.5 bn | 6.5 | 13.7% | 6.9% | −4.1% | −28% / −30% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TXNM from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 34.12 Total return -40% · Per year -40% | 60.50 Total return 6% · Per year 6% | 91.38 Total return 59% · Per year 59% |
| 3 years | 29.39 Total return -44% · Per year -18% | 58.99 Total return 8% · Per year 3% | 98.34 Total return 78% · Per year 21% |
| 5 years | 25.32 Total return -49% · Per year -12% | 57.51 Total return 11% · Per year 2% | 105.84 Total return 97% · Per year 15% |
- Exit P/E± 14.75
- Net margin± 10.32
- Annual revenue growth± 8.97
- Annual dilution± 0.87
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (30 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (30 Oct 2026).
In brief
TXNM Energy is a holding company based in Albuquerque that owns two regulated electric utilities, PNM in New Mexico and TNMP in Texas, serving about 846,000 customers. The company is going through a heavy grid investment cycle driven by rising demand, while the pending acquisition by Blackstone Infrastructure is still awaiting approvals.
SWOT
Strengths
- Regulated utilities with cost recovery mechanisms that support grid investment.
- Geographic diversification across New Mexico and Texas, with a growing rate base in FERC and Texas jurisdictions.
- A meaningful portfolio of renewable and storage resources in New Mexico.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on fossil-fueled generation in New Mexico, with compliance and plant exit costs.
- Concentration of TNMP revenue among a few retail electric providers, creating high commercial exposure.
- Uncertainty over acquisition approval leaves near-term strategic direction unclear.
Opportunities
- Rising data center and industrial demand could support new transmission and distribution investment.
- The 2026 resource plan with wind, solar and storage additions could support the energy transition.
- Joining regional markets such as EDAM could reduce operating costs for customers.
Threats
- Federal rules on emissions and coal ash could raise costs or limit operations at existing plants.
- Municipalization initiatives or growing self-generation could shrink the asset base and sales volumes.
- Rate pressure on customers could lead to lower consumption or political resistance to increases.
Risks
- Blackstone acquisition approvalhigh
Closing depends on NMPRC and NRC approvals, and the termination date was extended to May 2027, which could affect strategic planning 23.
- Recovery of investment costshigh
If regulators do not approve full recovery of costs, financial results and cash flows could be negatively affected 1.
- Environmental and climate regulationmedium
Uncertainty over federal greenhouse gas, coal ash and plant emission rules could create unexpected compliance and remediation costs 1.
- Declining electricity usagemedium
Energy efficiency, self-generation and higher rates could reduce consumption, which could leave capacity underutilized 1.
- Retail provider exposure in Texaslow
TNMP's dependence on a few power suppliers concentrates commercial risk, and financial problems at those suppliers could affect revenue 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
What would break the thesis
- Regulatory approvals are taking longer and the closing deadline has been extended into 2027, which could weigh on investor confidence 23.
- Rate increases needed to fund investment could meet resistance from customers and regulators 1.
- The transition away from fossil fuels and the exit from Four Carners carry costs and execution risks that could pressure margins 12.
What to watch
- NMPRC decision on the acquisition and NRC approval2027
- Approval of PNM's 2029-2032 resource portfolio2027
- Final TNMP rates after the July 2026 approvalQ3 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (30 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (30 Oct 2026).
The business
TXNM Energy, Inc. is a holding company with two regulated electric utilities: PNM, which provides generation, transmission and distribution in New Mexico, and TNMP, which provides transmission and distribution services in Texas without selling power 12. According to the annual report, the company served about 842,000 customers at the end of 2025, and by the second quarter of 2026 the figure had risen to 846,000 12. The company aims to deliver safe, reliable and affordable power, with emphasis on grid investment and customer experience 1.
Revenue and asset base are split between two regulatory jurisdictions. PNM is regulated by the NMPRC and FERC, while TNMP is regulated by the PUCT, and the company has been working to diversify its rate base so that TNMP and FERC transmission rate base exceed half of the consolidated base 1. The company relies on cost recovery mechanisms such as general rate cases and rate riders to recover its investments 1.
On the supply side, PNM had 4,733 MW of generation capacity at December 31, 2025, of which about 51% was renewable resources, with the rest including storage, natural gas, a share of the PVNGS nuclear plant and coal at Four Corners 1. In May 2026 the company filed a 2029-2032 resource portfolio application that includes exiting its interest in Four Corners in 2031 and adding wind, solar and storage contracts 2.
Segments
PNM
PNM is a vertically integrated electric utility in New Mexico with distribution, transmission and generation assets, serving areas such as Albuquerque, Rio Rancho and Santa Fe 13. Higher commercial and industrial load supported second quarter 2026 results 3.
Market context
The company operates in regulated markets where revenue is largely set by rates approved by the NMPRC, PUCT and FERC. Electricity demand is seasonal, with revenue traditionally peaking in hot summer months 1. Rapid load growth, especially from data centers and industry, has produced new system peaks in summer 2026 23.
The federal regulatory context for greenhouse gas emissions remains uncertain, which could affect compliance costs for fossil-fueled generation 1. Policy shifts in recent years may change market conditions and long-term cost recovery 1.
Trends
- Data center and industrial demand growthmixed
Demand from data centers and industry is rising quickly, requiring transmission and distribution investment, though it could also add pressure on customer rates 12.
- Large grid investment programtailwind
The company plans very large capital expenditure for 2026-2030, and if recovered through regulated rates this could support growth of the asset base 1.
- Energy transition and environmental rulesheadwind
Renewable requirements in New Mexico and uncertainty over greenhouse gas and coal ash rules raise costs and complicate generation planning, especially after the exit from Four Corners 12.
Competitive position
The company operates in franchised regulated service areas, so direct competition is limited, but there is pressure from independent generators, self-generation and alternative power sources that could reduce grid usage 1. In Texas, TNMP depends on retail electric providers to serve end customers, and revenue concentration in two providers is a commercial exposure 1.
Competitive risk also includes possible municipalization initiatives for PNM facilities, which could reduce the asset base and earnings if successful 1. Participation in regional markets such as the EIM and the planned EDAM entry is one way the company seeks to protect its position 2.
- Other regulated electric utilities in the Southwest
Companies with similar operations in New Mexico, Arizona and Texas that compete for capital and resources, not individually identified in the source texts.
- Independent power producers and self-generation
Private generators and industrial customers that can reduce grid demand through their own solutions, as noted in the company's risk factors.
- Retail Electric Providers in Texas
Power suppliers that use the TNMP network and have a significant effect on revenue, concentrated among a few large providers.
- Blackstone Infrastructure investment fund
Acquirer under the pending transaction that could change the operating strategy after closing.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- TXNM (TXNM) Prices a $400M Equity Offering to Repay Term Debt. Does Balance-Sheet Repair Justify the Dilution Before Its Blackstone Transaction Closes?Yahoo Finance — News · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 09 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 30 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report30 Oct 2026
- Current report30 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 Oct 2026Regulation FD disclosure
- Current report30 Sept 2026Other events
- Current report02 Sept 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report19 Aug 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report31 Jul 2026
- Current report31 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 Jul 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report20 Jul 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Regulation FD disclosure
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / TXNM Energy, Inc. · 27 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / TXNM Energy, Inc. · 31 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / TXNM Energy, Inc. · 31 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.