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olivLaw · US equity research

Rockwell Automation, Inc. ROK

Measuring & Controlling Devices, NEC · SIC 3829 · Vertical: Measuring & Controlling Devices, NEC (SIC 3829)

443.88USD−0.56% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) describes itself as the world's largest company dedicated to industrial automation and digital transformation, with three operating segments. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026 sales were 2313 million USD, up 8%, and organic sales rose 10%. The company updated its fiscal 2026 guidance, with an Adjusted EPS range of 13.00-13.30 USD.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) stock was 443.88 USD (−0.56% on the day), with market capitalisation 49.3 bn USD, P/E 41.6 on diluted EPS of 10.66 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.23%, beta 1.23, 52-week range 348.51–495.08 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 2.3 bn USD (+7.9% YoY), net income of 408.0 m USD (+38.3% YoY), diluted EPS 3.65 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
49.3 bn USD
shares as of 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
41.6
Diluted EPS TTM 10.66 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
2.40%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
1.23%
DPS 12m 5.45
Beta (2y)
1.23
Volatility (1y) 31%
52-week range
348.51495.08

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
55.2
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
417.26 – 450.38
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.80 · band width 7.6%
SMA 50 / 200
431.55 / 427.52
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
2.79 / 1.29
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−2.5%−1.1%−1.4 pp—
3 months−1.4%−0.5%−0.9 pp—
6 months−3.4%+4.4%−7.8 pp—
Year to date+14.1%+12.3%+1.8 pp—
1 year+23.4%+13.5%+9.8 pp−33.4%
3 years+68.3%+76.4%−8.1 pp−9.9%
5 years+30.9%+63.7%−32.7 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−19.0%
03 Feb 2026 → 30 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−45.6%
15 Dec 2021 → 17 Jun 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+5.5%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
2.3 bn USD
+7.9% YoY
Net income
408.0 m USD
+38.3% YoY
Diluted EPS
3.65
+40.4% YoY
net / operating
17.6% / 23.8%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue2.0 bn1.9 bn2.0 bn2.1 bn2.3 bn2.1 bn2.2 bn2.3 bn
Cost of revenue607.0 m1.0 bn1.0 bn1.1 bn1.2 bn1.1 bn1.1 bn1.2 bn
Gross profit1.4 bn878.0 m972.0 m1.0 bn1.1 bn1.0 bn1.1 bn1.1 bn
Research & development—156.0 m162.0 m170.0 m191.0 m172.0 m180.0 m173.0 m
SG&A485.0 m476.0 m469.0 m498.0 m471.0 m478.0 m478.0 m490.0 m
Operating income—321.0 m408.0 m454.0 m520.0 m435.0 m530.0 m550.0 m
Depreciation & amortisation—78.0 m81.0 m81.0 m85.0 m79.0 m79.0 m79.0 m
Interest expense40.0 m39.0 m39.0 m41.0 m37.0 m32.0 m36.0 m33.0 m
Pre-tax income275.0 m213.0 m299.0 m342.0 m63.0 m342.0 m440.0 m470.0 m
Income tax36.0 m35.0 m51.0 m49.0 m33.0 m40.0 m89.0 m62.0 m
Net income240.0 m184.0 m252.0 m295.0 m138.0 m305.0 m350.0 m408.0 m
Diluted EPS2.11 ≈1.612.222.601.22 ≈2.693.103.65
Operating cash flow432.0 m364.0 m199.0 m ≈527.0 m ≈454.0 m234.0 m320.0 m ≈724.0 m ≈
Capex65.0 m71.0 m28.0 m ≈38.0 m ≈49.0 m64.0 m45.0 m ≈70.0 m ≈
Dividends paid142.0 m149.0 m148.0 m ≈147.0 m ≈147.0 m156.0 m153.0 m ≈155.0 m ≈
Share repurchases118.0 m100.0 m132.0 m ≈124.0 m ≈69.0 m153.0 m446.0 m ≈155.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 81 percentile of its own 43-quarter history (min 17.3, median 27.9, max 68.9; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue6.7 bn6.7 bn6.3 bn7.0 bn7.8 bn9.1 bn8.3 bn8.3 bn
Revenue YoY+5.6%+0.4%−5.5%+10.5%+10.9%+16.7%−8.8%+0.9%
Net income535.5 m695.8 m1.0 bn1.4 bn932.2 m1.4 bn953.0 m869.0 m
Net income YoY−35.1%+29.9%+47.1%+32.7%−31.4%+48.8%−31.3%−8.8%
Diluted EPS4.215.838.7711.587.9711.958.287.67
Diluted EPS YoY−33.7%+38.5%+50.4%+32.0%−31.2%+49.9%−30.7%−7.4%
net %8.0%10.4%16.2%19.4%12.0%15.3%11.5%10.4%
Free cash flow1.2 bn1.0 bn1.0 bn1.1 bn682.0 m1.2 bn639.0 m1.4 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Sept 2025

Cash
468.0 m USD
Financial debt
3.2 bn USD
Net debt
2.8 bn USD
Equity
3.7 bn USD
Total assets
11.2 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.87x
Current ratio
1.14x
ROE
23.5%
ROA
7.7%
FCF margin
16.3%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
9.1 bn
2024
8.3 bn
2025
8.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Cost of revenue
2023
4.6 bn
2024
4.4 bn
2025
4.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Gross profit
2023
4.4 bn
2024
3.9 bn
2025
4.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Research & development
2023
706.0 m
2024
658.0 m
2025
679.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

SG&A
2023
2.0 bn
2024
2.0 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Operating income
2023
1.9 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
250.0 m
2024
317.0 m
2025
325.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

EBITDA
2023
2.2 bn ≈
2024
1.9 bn ≈
2025
2.0 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025derived

Interest expense
2023
135.3 m
2024
154.0 m
2025
156.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Pre-tax income
2023
1.6 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
917.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Income tax
2023
330.0 m
2024
152.0 m
2025
168.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Net income
2023
1.4 bn
2024
953.0 m
2025
869.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Diluted EPS
2023
11.95
2024
8.28
2025
7.67

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
115.6 m
2024
114.5 m
2025
113.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Dividend per share
2023
4.72
2024
5.00
2025
5.24

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
1.1 bn
2024
471.0 m
2025
468.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Inventories
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Current assets
2023
4.9 bn
2024
3.9 bn
2025
3.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
684.0 m
2024
777.0 m
2025
797.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Goodwill
2023
3.5 bn
2024
4.0 bn
2025
3.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
852.4 m
2024
1.1 bn
2025
864.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Total assets
2023
11.3 bn
2024
11.2 bn
2025
11.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Accounts payable
2023
1.2 bn
2024
860.0 m
2025
930.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Short-term debt
2023
94.7 m
2024
771.0 m
2025
608.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Long-term debt
2023
2.9 bn
2024
2.6 bn
2025
2.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Current liabilities
2023
3.4 bn
2024
3.6 bn
2025
3.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Equity
2023
3.7 bn
2024
3.7 bn
2025
3.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
1.4 bn
2024
864.0 m
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Capex
2023
160.5 m
2024
225.0 m
2025
186.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Free cash flow
2023
1.2 bn ≈
2024
639.0 m ≈
2025
1.4 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025derived

Investing cash flow
2023
854.0 m
2024
-982.0 m
2025
-216.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-1.7 bn
2024
-503.0 m
2025
-1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Dividends paid
2023
542.0 m
2024
571.0 m
2025
591.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Share repurchases
2023
312.0 m
2024
595.0 m
2025
425.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Nov 2025verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
0.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
2.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
5.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
6.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-8.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-2.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
-3.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-7.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-1.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
-2.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
112.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
49.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
26.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
22.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
13.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
16.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
34.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
10.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
26.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
27.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
51.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
40.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
2.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
1.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
14.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
1.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
228.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
1.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
125.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
73.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
100 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
71 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
49.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
52.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
41.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
41.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
2.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
14.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
5.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
22.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
25.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
5.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
32.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
3.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
1.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
2.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 49 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

443.88 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 49.3 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
49.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
41.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
14.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
22.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
34.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
13.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
0.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
1.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

34/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 30 Jun 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 04 Aug 2026
verified 2823derived 180

Score by group

  • Valuation11
  • Returns65
  • Quality97
  • Balance sheet75
  • Growth10

Estimated value range

Low
116.31
USD per share
Mid
141.18
USD per share
High
179.48
USD per share
Price: 443.88 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -68.2% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -214.4% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 68.86 – 266.35 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)163.77 – 266.35 (Mid 203.37)
    WACC 9.0% · starting FCFF 1.6 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 73%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 37.3%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · not enough peers
  • Dividend discount (DDM)68.86 – 92.60 (Mid 78.99)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Measuring & Controlling Devices, NEC (SIC 3829)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 49/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality26.2%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Net margin · Quality13.4%88 (vs peers)6%
FCF conversion · Quality125.2%100 (on a fixed band)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth2.4%20 (on a fixed band)8%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-1.3%0 (on a fixed band)8%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet1.2x81 (on a fixed band)10%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet14.7x100 (on a fixed band)6%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.1x23 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation41.6x0 (on a fixed band)10%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation22.1x0 (on a fixed band)10%
FCF yield · Valuation3.1%38 (on a fixed band)8%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns2.9%42 (on a fixed band)6%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns40.6%100 (on a fixed band)4%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet75/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth10/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality97/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns65/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation11/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 8.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 0.9%; net margin 13.4%; ROE 34.5%; net debt/EBITDA 1.2x.

The estimated value range is 116.31–179.48 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 141.18 USD, the price of 443.88 USD leaves a potential of -68.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -214.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 49/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 26.2%
  • Net margin: 13.4%
  • FCF conversion: 125.2%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 1.2x
  • Interest coverage: 14.7x
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 40.6%

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 2.4%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -1.3%
  • Current ratio: 1.1x
  • P/E (TTM): 41.6x
  • EV/EBITDA: 22.1x
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Versus the vertical median

Measuring & Controlling Devices, NEC (SIC 3829) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 9 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
41.6x
vertical median 69.4x
below median (−40.0%)
EV/EBITDA
22.1x
vertical median —
P/S
5.5x
vertical median 1.5x
above median (+264.2%)
P/B
14.1x
vertical median 3.6x
above median (+297.4%)
ROE
34.5%
vertical median -4.5%
above median
Net margin
13.4%
vertical median -5.9%
above median
EBIT margin
22.7%
vertical median -0.5%
above median
Revenue YoY
0.9%
vertical median -0.7%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
1.2x
vertical median —
Dividend yield
1.2%
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
TMOThermo Fisher Scientific Inc.261.6 bn37.313.4%14.9%+3.9%+20% / +42%
ROKRockwell Automation, Inc.49.3 bn41.634.5%13.4%+0.9%+23% / +68%
TRMBTrimble Inc.12.4 bn—-2.9%-4.1%−2.6%−33% / +17%
ONTOOnto Innovation Inc.9.1 bn69.46.8%11.8%unavailable+29% / +31%
MIRMirion Technologies, Inc.336.9 m159.41.6%2.7%+7.5%−31% / +101%
OWLTOwlet, Inc.132.4 m——-7.7%+35.4%−66% / −10%
GEOSGeospace Technologies Corp51.0 m—-34.4%-43.1%−18.3%−70% / −67%
BCHTBirchtech Corp.28.9 m—-134.4%-21.7%+1.3%−75% / −78%
QSIQuantum-Si Incorporated——-49.1%-6,138.3%−20.3%−9% / −20%
NIKINiki BioSolutions, Inc.——-6.2%—−66.7%−87% / −90%

1- and 3-year price returns: for ROK from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
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Base
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Bull
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
260.59
Total return -40% · Per year -40%
461.17
Total return 5% · Per year 5%
695.29
Total return 58% · Per year 58%
3 years
242.54
Total return -43% · Per year -17%
483.93
Total return 13% · Per year 4%
802.57
Total return 86% · Per year 23%
5 years
225.73
Total return -45% · Per year -11%
507.82
Total return 21% · Per year 4%
926.41
Total return 118% · Per year 17%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 120.98
  • Net margin± 84.69
  • Annual revenue growth± 70.92
  • Annual dilution± 7.12

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (05 Nov 2026 · results).

In brief

Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) describes itself as the world's largest company dedicated to industrial automation and digital transformation, with three operating segments. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026 sales were 2313 million USD, up 8%, and organic sales rose 10% 3. The company updated its fiscal 2026 guidance, with an Adjusted EPS range of 13.00-13.30 USD 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Leading position in industrial automation and an integrated control architecture that the company presents as a differentiator 1.
  • Strong organic growth in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 and expanding margins 3.
  • A broad partner ecosystem and a significant distribution network that amplify internal capabilities 1.

Weaknesses

  • Reliance on independent distributors, with significant sales concentration among a few large partners 1.
  • The Lifecycle Services segment declined in the third quarter, mainly because of divestitures 3.
  • Some components and suppliers are single-source, and delivery delays could affect production 1.

Opportunities

  • Demand for automation in semiconductors, data centers and logistics could support future growth 3.
  • Expanding recurring ARR and digital services could improve revenue predictability 13.
  • Acquisitions focused on industrial AI and on market access in Europe and Asia could open new opportunities 1.

Threats

  • Strong competition and pricing pressure could reduce sales and margins 1.
  • Cyberattacks on products and customer systems represent a significant risk 1.
  • Changes in tariffs and trade policy could raise costs and disrupt supply chains 1.

Risks

  • Economic cyclicalityhigh

    Recessions could lead to reduced, canceled or delayed orders, as customers cut capital spending 1.

  • Cybersecurityhigh

    The company's systems and those of its customers are exposed to attacks, and the adoption of artificial intelligence has made threats more sophisticated 1.

  • Tariffs and trademedium

    Trade policy changes could raise production costs and limit the ability to pass prices on to customers 1.

  • Supplier dependencemedium

    Shortages of components and delays from single-source suppliers could affect delivery schedules 1.

  • Currency riskmedium

    A stronger US dollar could reduce sales and profitability from outside the US, and hedging instruments may not be effective 1.

  • Cost of capitallow

    Access to credit markets and borrowing costs depend on the credit rating and market conditions 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Strong organic growth and rising margins could support further guidance increases if demand from semiconductors and data centers stays robust 3.
  • Growth in software and recurring ARR could improve revenue predictability and quality over the long term 13.
  • A recovery in US industrial production could generate new automation investment and the localization of supply chains 12.

What would break the thesis

  • Pressure between prices and costs could limit margins if producer price inflation keeps rising 23.
  • The cyclical nature of industrial investment could reduce orders if the economy slows 1.
  • Intense competition and cybersecurity risks could affect market share and reputation 1.

What to watch

  • Delivery against the adjusted EPS and organic sales guidanceQ4 2026
  • Trajectory of organic ARR and the Software & Control segmentQ1 2027
  • Effect of BEPS Pillar Two on the adjusted effective tax ratenext 10-K
  • Development of producer prices and the price/cost effect2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (05 Nov 2026 · results).

The business

Rockwell Automation traces its roots to the Allen-Bradley Company, founded in 1903, and has been incorporated in Delaware since 1996, after divesting its aerospace and defense businesses 1. The company operates in more than 100 countries and had 26000 employees at the end of fiscal 2025 1. Its strategy is to bring the Connected Enterprise to life, built on an integrated control architecture with Logix at its core 1.

The company says it can cover many production disciplines, from discrete and process to safety and robotics, within a single hardware and software environment 1. Around 65% of global sales go through independent distributors, and the two largest distributors account for about 20% of total sales 1. Its addressed market is put at approximately 120 billion USD 1.

Meanwhile, the company strengthened its portfolio through the dissolution of the Sensia joint venture on April 1, 2026, which also brought a margin benefit in the third quarter 3. It aims to grow recurring revenue and pursues acquisitions focused on industrial AI applications 12.

Market context

Demand depends on investment in manufacturing and on global industrial output levels 1. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, the US manufacturing PMI reached 53.3 in June 2026, its highest level in four years, while PPI growth rose to 5.5% 23.

The company cites growth in semiconductors, data centers and warehouse automation, along with improving activity in automotive and life sciences 3. Oil and gas markets have been a source of adverse impacts in certain periods 2.

Trends

  • Price and cost pressureheadwind

    Producer price inflation has accelerated, which can create pressure between prices and costs, and the company noted a negative price/cost effect 23.

  • Demand for software and recurring ARRtailwind

    Growth in software and recurring ARR supports the company's long-term growth goal, although its contribution depends on the pace of adoption 13.

  • Tariffs and trade policyheadwind

    Changes in tariffs and trade policy could raise procurement costs and disrupt supply chains, with effects that depend on how quickly prices can be passed on to customers 1.

Competitive position

Competitors range from large diversified corporations to smaller firms with limited portfolios, and competitive position depends on portfolio breadth, technology differentiation, industry expertise and partner ecosystem 1. The company expects competition to remain high 1.

  • Siemens AG

    A major competitor named in the annual report, with a broad industrial automation offering 1.

  • ABB Ltd

    A competitor named in the annual report in industrial automation 1.

  • Emerson Electric Co.EMR

    A competitor named in the annual report, active in process control and automation 1.

  • Honeywell International Inc.HON

    A competitor named in the annual report, with activities in industrial automation and software 1.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 04 Nov 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 05 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 · SEC / Rockwell Automation, Inc. · 12 Nov 2025
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Rockwell Automation, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Rockwell Automation, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.