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olivLaw · US equity research

Stem, Inc. STEM

Services-Computer Integrated Systems Design · SIC 7373 · Vertical: Services-Computer Integrated Systems Design (SIC 7373)

2.88USD+21.52% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Stem, Inc. provides the PowerTrack software suite and services for clean energy assets, shifting away from battery resales toward a software-centric model. Revenue was 156.3 mn USD in fiscal 2025, and ARR reached 61.2 mn USD at the end of Q1 2026.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Stem, Inc. (STEM) stock was 2.88 USD (+21.52% on the day), with market capitalisation 27.7 m USD, beta 2.21, 52-week range 2.22–21.89 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 33.7 m USD (−12.3% YoY), net income of -14.4 m USD (−107.1% YoY), diluted EPS -1.58 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
27.7 m USD
shares as of 05 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -8.50 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-295.07%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
2.21
Volatility (1y) 88%
52-week range
2.2221.89

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
40.2
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
1.94 – 4.45
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.37 · band width 78.5%
SMA 50 / 200
4.17 / 8.14
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.52 / -0.51
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−32.2%−2.0%−30.2 pp—
3 months−50.3%−2.2%−48.2 pp—
6 months−73.6%+4.3%−77.9 pp—
Year to date−80.9%+10.6%−91.4 pp—
1 year−83.7%+10.5%−94.2 pp−33.2%
3 years−96.1%+73.7%−169.7 pp−6.6%
5 years−99.4%+61.7%−161.1 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−89.9%
11 Dec 2025 → 30 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−99.6%
11 Nov 2021 → 30 Oct 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−64.2%
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
33.7 m USD
−12.3% YoY
Net income
-14.4 m USD
−107.1% YoY
Diluted EPS
-1.58
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-42.7% / -22.8%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue29.3 m55.8 m32.5 m38.4 m38.2 m47.1 m29.0 m33.7 m
Cost of revenue23.1 m58.3 m22.0 m25.6 m24.7 m24.1 m18.1 m19.8 m
Gross profit6.2 m-2.4 m10.5 m12.8 m13.6 m23.0 m10.9 m13.9 m
Research & development11.1 m10.8 m11.3 m10.0 m6.9 m7.1 m6.6 m6.5 m
Operating income-144.5 m-47.1 m-21.1 m-13.3 m-12.9 m-8.3 m-14.2 m-7.7 m
Depreciation & amortisation11.0 m ≈11.8 m11.0 m11.2 m ≈10.9 m ≈11.8 m10.5 m11.4 m ≈
Interest expense4.5 m4.4 m4.3 m4.1 m7.3 m8.3 m7.4 m7.5 m
Pre-tax income-148.2 m-51.1 m-24.9 m203.0 m-23.9 m-15.8 m-18.8 m-14.4 m
Income tax129.0 k-12.0 k58.0 k475.0 k-141.0 k144.0 k112.0 k13.0 k
Net income-148.3 m-51.1 m-25.0 m202.5 m-23.8 m-16.0 m-18.9 m-14.4 m
Diluted EPS-18.24-6.28 ≈-3.05-1.79-2.84-1.86 ≈-2.22-1.58
Operating cash flow-9.4 m ≈-14.7 m8.5 m-21.3 m ≈11.4 m ≈8.2 m-8.3 m342.0 k ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year2019202020212022202320242025
Revenue17.6 m36.3 m127.4 m363.0 m461.5 m144.6 m156.3 m
Revenue YoYunavailable+106.9%+250.8%+185.0%+27.1%−68.7%+8.1%
Net income-59.4 m-156.1 m-101.2 m-124.1 m-140.4 m-854.0 m137.8 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS-1.51-4.13-0.96-0.81-18.05-105.80-9.18
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %-338.5%-430.0%-79.5%-34.2%-30.4%-590.7%88.2%
Free cash flowunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
48.9 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
-249.1 m USD
Total assets
308.9 m USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
0.91x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
36.9%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
461.5 m
2024
144.6 m
2025
156.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
457.9 m
2024
155.6 m
2025
96.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
3.7 m
2024
-11.1 m
2025
60.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Research & development
2023
56.5 m
2024
51.3 m
2025
35.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-179.3 m
2024
-839.5 m
2025
-55.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
46.3 m
2024
45.0 m
2025
44.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-133.0 m ≈
2024
-794.5 m ≈
2025
-10.7 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
15.0 m
2024
18.3 m
2025
23.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-140.0 m
2024
-853.7 m
2025
138.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
433.0 k
2024
332.0 k
2025
536.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
-140.4 m
2024
-854.0 m
2025
137.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-18.05
2024
-105.80
2025
-9.18

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
7.8 m
2024
8.1 m
2025
8.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
105.4 m
2024
56.3 m
2025
48.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
302.8 m
2024
59.3 m
2025
38.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
26.7 m
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Feb 2024verified

Current assets
2023
473.0 m
2024
136.6 m
2025
100.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
74.4 m
2024
58.8 m
2025
43.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
547.2 m
2024
0
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Aug 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
157.1 m
2024
143.9 m
2025
123.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
1.4 bn
2024
437.4 m
2025
308.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
78.3 m
2024
30.1 m
2025
10.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
251.1 m
2024
128.8 m
2025
110.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
930.3 m
2024
835.2 m
2025
557.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
426.7 m
2024
-397.8 m
2025
-249.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2021verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-207.4 m
2024
-36.7 m
2025
6.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Investing cash flow
2023
135.7 m
2024
-3.5 m
2025
-6.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
90.2 m
2024
-8.4 m
2025
-7.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
8.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-24.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
33.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Gross margin
41.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
1.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
-29.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-49.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
unavailable
input data missing

Returns

ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
ROA
-22.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
equity is negative: buybacks shrink the invested capital and ROIC would come out large without meaning anything
ROCE
-25.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
-1.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
11.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
unavailable
input data missing
Free cash flow
unavailable
input data missing
FCF conversion
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion
754.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
94 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
55 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
27.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-295.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
P/S
0.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • indicators available: 5 of at least 6
  • score weight coverage: 51.1% of at least 60%
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

2.88 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 27.7 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
27.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Net margin
-49.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
8.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

29/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 05 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 13 Aug 2026
verified 959derived 82

Score by group

51% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/Salesunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-Computer Integrated Systems Design (SIC 7373)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 51.1% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
Gross margin · Quality41.5%4 (on a fixed band)21%
EBIT margin · Quality-29.1%41 (vs peers)17%
FCF margin · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-24.5%0 (on a fixed band)33%
Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth8.1%51 (vs peers)17%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.8x2 (on a fixed band)13%
EV/Sales · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial2/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Growth17/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality20/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/1 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Stem, Inc. (STEM). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 156.3 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 8.1%; net margin -49.4%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 51.1% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.

What contradicts it

  • Gross margin: 41.5%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -24.5%
  • Current ratio: 0.8x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF margin, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/Sales, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions).

Versus the vertical median

Services-Computer Integrated Systems Design (SIC 7373) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 23.3x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 12.9x
P/S
0.2x
vertical median 2.7x
below median (−93.1%)
P/B
—
vertical median 1.7x
ROE
—
vertical median -9.4%
Net margin
-49.4%
vertical median -8.1%
below median
EBIT margin
-29.1%
vertical median -8.2%
below median
Revenue YoY
8.1%
vertical median 7.1%
above median (+13.5%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 2.6x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.3%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
LDOSLeidos Holdings, Inc.16.4 bn12.128.2%8.0%+3.1%−30% / +26%
GDDYGoDaddy Inc.14.3 bn16.2—18.6%+8.3%−7% / +18%
CACICACI International Inc14.0 bn25.912.5%5.5%+10.9%+2% / +97%
JKHYJack Henry & Associates, Inc.12.6 bn25.724.0%19.8%+7.1%+3% / +13%
IONQIonQ, Inc.11.3 bn—-60.8%-553.3%+201.9%−40% / +142%
OTEXOpen Text Corp6.4 bn10.316.2%12.3%+1.5%−21% / −34%
SAICScience Applications International Corporation6.3 bn17.625.7%5.1%−2.9%+75% / +28%
WAYWaystar Holding Corp.5.7 bn42.93.7%10.7%+16.5%−20% / unavailable
KDKyndryl Holdings, Inc.3.7 bn46.27.6%0.6%+0.2%−35% / −7%
AGYSAgilysys, Inc.3.5 bn78.513.6%12.9%+15.9%−0% / +42%
NTCTNetscout Systems Inc2.8 bn23.37.5%13.7%+4.5%+42% / +90%
AURAurora Innovation, Inc.2.6 bn—-45.7%-13,328.6%unavailable−3% / +86%
PONYPony AI Inc.2.1 bn—-10.3%-148.9%+20.0%−65% / unavailable
OSPNOneSpan Inc.872.9 m13.226.8%27.5%+0.0%+94% / +136%
TLSTelos Corporation378.2 m—-14.9%-8.1%+52.2%−12% / +23%
SLPSimulations Plus, Inc.374.2 m46.76.2%9.9%+13.1%unavailable / unavailable
SMRTSmartrent, Inc.310.4 m—-8.4%-13.0%−12.9%−6% / −48%
ASURAsure Software, Inc.293.6 m—-1.9%—+24.3%+22% / +22%
VEEAVeea Inc.281.2 m——-2,491.9%+56.6%−55% / −98%
RBBNRibbon Communications Inc.275.9 m22.55.0%2.3%+1.3%−46% / −28%
KDKKodiak AI, Inc.220.7 m——-4,259.6%−74.6%−82% / unavailable
AIOSAIOS Tech Inc.138.9 m—-208.9%-4,359.1%−98.5%−87% / −86%
MRLNMerlin, Inc.91.5 m———unavailable−92% / unavailable
CSPICSP Inc75.4 m—-1.5%-1.2%+6.4%−35% / −40%
HCTIHealthcare Triangle, Inc.69.2 m—-57.4%-66.3%+18.8%−97% / −100%

1- and 3-year price returns: for STEM from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    Stem, Inc. provides the PowerTrack software suite and services for clean energy assets, shifting away from battery resales toward a software-centric model. Revenue was 156.3 mn USD in fiscal 2025, and ARR reached 61.2 mn USD at the end of Q1 2026.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • The PowerTrack suite is hardware-agnostic and draws on operational data from assets across many countries 1. Non-GAAP gross margin has risen and adjusted EBITDA has been positive for several quarters 3.
    • The leadership team brings experience in software, distributed energy and utility programs, supporting product development 1. Strategic partnerships with industry leaders help reduce execution risk 1.
    • Growth in PowerTrack ARR and cost discipline offer a steadier base than battery resales 3.

    Weaknesses

    • Total revenue declined in 2026 as battery sales fell, reducing the volume of the business 23. The company still carries a large accumulated deficit 1.
    • Liquidity is limited and operating cash flow was negative in Q1 2026 3. If cash flow does not improve, additional financing could be needed 1.
    • Revenue is concentrated in a few significant customers, and losing one large contract could affect results 1.

    Opportunities

    • Growing demand for distributed storage and optimization software could support PowerTrack expansion into new markets 1. Partnerships and software asset acquisitions may strengthen the offering 3.
    • German contracts and a co-marketing deal with a North American BMS provider could open access to new markets 3.
    • If managed services and software keep growing, margins could stay elevated 3.

    Threats

    • Changes to clean energy tax credits could reduce customer demand 1. FEOC restrictions add complexity to supply chains 1.
    • Competition in software and hardware is intense, and larger rivals could pressure pricing 1.
    • Project delays or supply chain disruptions could postpone contracted revenue 13.

    Risks

    • Strategy may not deliverhigh

      The new strategy may not achieve its expected benefits, and revenue declines could continue if software does not grow enough 1. The company warns that failure could materially affect results 1.

    • Limited liquidityhigh

      Cash fell to 36.6 mn USD at the end of Q1 2026 and operating cash flow was negative 3. If liquidity does not improve, additional financing could be required 1.

    • Dependence on significant customersmedium

      A small number of customers generate a material share of revenue, and a delayed or lost contract could significantly reduce revenue 1.

    • Tax and regulatory policymedium

      Changes to tax credits and FEOC restrictions could reduce demand or raise compliance costs 1.

    • Supplier dependencemedium

      Concentration among equipment suppliers and their limited capacity could lead to inventory shortages 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If PowerTrack keeps growing and gross margins stay high, the company could meet its 2026 guidance and reduce its reliance on battery sales 3.
    • Its operating base across many countries and distributed asset data could support a strong competitive position in energy software 1.
    • Operating efficiency gained in 2025 could keep adjusted EBITDA positive if software demand grows 3.

    What would break the thesis

    • Total revenue fell in the first half of 2026, and if battery sales are not offset, growth could remain limited 23.
    • Low liquidity and negative cash flow could force the company to raise financing on less favorable terms 3.
    • Legislative changes and intense competition could pressure margins or reduce demand for the company's services 1.

    What to watch

    • Software revenue and ARR trajectory against guidanceQ2 2026
    • Operating cash flow and cash balanceQ2 2026
    • Delivery against adjusted EBITDA and non-GAAP gross margin guidance2026
    • Impact of the OBBB act and FEOC rules on customersnext 10-K

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    Stem, Inc. presents itself as a global leader reimagining technology for the energy transition, delivering its solutions through the integrated PowerTrack suite covering asset monitoring and optimization for solar, storage and hybrid assets, supported by professional and managed services 1. The company says it operates one of the largest distributed clean energy networks, with 36 GW of solar assets and nearly 2 GWh of storage under management 1. The 2024 strategy change reduced battery resales, which had been the main source of revenue, in favor of software and services 1.

    The business model combines software licensing, hardware-agnostic edge devices and project services, serving developers, asset owners, EPC firms and distributors 1. In 2025 Stem cut about 27% of its global workforce to lower operating costs 1. The accumulated deficit stood at 1,488.7 mn USD at the end of fiscal 2025 1.

    In Q1 2026, software, services and edge hardware revenue rose 4% year over year and the company reported a fourth consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA 3. Full-year 2026 guidance was reaffirmed, with revenue between 140 and 190 mn USD 3.

    Segments

    PowerTrack software

    PowerTrack Software, PowerTrack Optimizer and the SCADA, PPC and EMS components form the core of the strategy 1. PowerTrack software revenue grew 16% year over year in Q1 2026, and PowerTrack ARR reached 41.7 mn USD 3.

    Managed and professional services

    Managed services cover design, procurement, commissioning and optimization of storage systems, while professional services support solar and storage projects across their lifecycle 1. Managed services ARR eased to 19.5 mn USD in Q1 2026 3.

    Edge hardware and battery resales

    Edge hardware, which is OEM-agnostic, connects solar and storage assets to the software 1. Battery resales are declining and are guided at up to 40 mn USD for 2026, reducing low-margin revenue 3.

    Market context

    The distributed clean energy market is growing as renewable generation costs fall and demand for storage rises from commercial and industrial customers, utilities and grid operators 1. Market development still depends on incentives, and Stem notes the distributed generation industry is nascent with uncertain adoption 1. The OBBB legislation of July 2025 changed clean energy tax credits 1.

    The company operates in over 55 countries, but its revenue is concentrated in a few significant customers, so ARR guidance depends on renewing those contracts 13. Stem reported new contracts in Germany in May 2026, indicating expansion into European markets 3.

    Trends

    • Shift to software and servicestailwind

      Exiting battery resales reduced total revenue but lifted margins, which the company links to better results 13. If software keeps growing, margins could sustain profitability.

    • US tax policymixed

      The OBBB act changed clean energy tax credits, added FEOC restrictions and altered beginning-of-construction rules, and the company says it is still evaluating the impact 1. These changes could affect customer demand.

    • Operating efficiencytailwind

      The company reported positive adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2026 after lower operating expenses, and non-GAAP gross margin improved 3. This effect depends on keeping cost discipline.

    Competitive position

    The industry is highly competitive and includes energy monitoring and optimization software providers, storage and edge device makers, hardware integrators, renewable developers, EPC firms and consultancies 1. In managed services, rivals are asset management providers and storage optimizers 1.

    Stem argues its edge lies in hardware-agnostic solutions and operational data across many hardware types, geographies and grid service areas 1. Competition depends on safety, performance, costs and the ability to offer a complete solution 1.

    • Energy monitoring and optimization software providers

      Direct competitors in monitoring and optimization software for clean energy assets 1.

    • Edge device and storage OEMs

      Companies offering edge hardware or storage systems with their own control solutions, making them rivals on some projects 1.

    • Asset management and storage optimizer firms

      Rivals in managed services that run fleets of storage systems and dispatch them into markets 1.

    • EPC and consulting firms

      Design, procurement and construction firms that may offer monitoring or advisory services in competition with the company's professional services 1.

    News & filings

    In the press

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Stem, Inc. · 05 Mar 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Stem, Inc. · 13 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Stem, Inc. · 06 May 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.