olivLaw · US equity research
Turkcell İletişim Hizmetleri A.Ş. TKC
Telephone Communications (No Radiotelephone) · SIC 4813 · Vertical: Telephone Communications (No Radiotelephone) (SIC 4813)
Turkcell is the largest mobile and fixed operator in Türkiye and is expanding into data, cloud and digital services. Total revenues were 241.5 billion TRY in 2025, and the nationwide 5G launch in March 2026 strengthens its position against competitors.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Turkcell İletişim Hizmetleri A.Ş. (TKC) stock was 4.73 USD (+1.28% on the day), with beta 0.56, 52-week range 4.58–7.15 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 42.2
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 4.45 – 5.19
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.38 · band width 15.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 5.02 / 5.84
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.13 / -0.13
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −8.7% | −1.1% | −7.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −12.9% | −0.5% | −12.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | −27.7% | +4.4% | −32.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | −13.5% | +12.3% | −25.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | −18.2% | +13.5% | −31.7 pp | −10.6% |
| 3 years | +10.0% | +76.4% | −66.4 pp | +20.5% |
| 5 years | +9.5% | +63.7% | −54.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | ⚠ 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 14.3 bn | 17.6 bn | 21.3 bn | 25.1 bn | 69.5 bn | 108.6 bn | 93.5 bn | 107.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +11.9% | +23.4% | +20.8% | +18.1% | — | +56.3% | −13.9% | +14.6% |
| Net income | 1.5 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 3.2 bn | 4.5 bn | 7.1 bn | 6.9 bn | 12.6 bn |
| Net income YoY | −27.8% | +32.6% | +2.1% | +60.6% | — | +58.5% | −3.6% | +82.5% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | 1.49 | 2.10 | 3.27 | 3.15 | 5.75 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | — | +55.7% | −3.7% | +82.5% |
| net % | 10.4% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 11.7% |
| Free cash flow | -2.0 bn | 164.1 m | 2.9 bn | 5.8 bn | 12.5 bn | 43.6 bn | 26.9 bn | 27.5 bn |
The series breaks before 2020: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2023 · 31 Dec 2023
- Cash
- 50.0 bn TRY
- Financial debt
- 57.9 bn TRY
- Net debt
- 8.0 bn TRY
- Equity
- 122.2 bn TRY
- Total assets
- 247.1 bn TRY
- Debt / equity
- 0.47x
- Current ratio
- 1.78x
- ROE
- 10.8%
- ROA
- 5.2%
- FCF margin
- 25.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (TRY)
Margins
Income statement · TRY
| Line | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 21.3 bn | 25.1 bn | 69.5 bn | 108.6 bn | 93.5 bn | 107.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024verified |
| Cost of revenue | 14.1 bn | 17.1 bn | 53.1 bn | 86.1 bn | 81.7 bn | 84.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024verified |
| Gross profit | 7.1 bn | 8.1 bn | 16.4 bn | 22.5 bn | 11.8 bn | 22.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024verified |
| Research & development | — | — | 175.1 m | 89.9 m | 129.1 m | 132.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024verified |
| Operating income | 4.4 bn | 5.0 bn | 9.0 bn | 12.1 bn | 3.0 bn | 7.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 4.3 bn | 5.0 bn | 18.8 bn | 31.2 bn | 32.6 bn | 31.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024verified |
| EBITDA | 8.6 bn ≈ | 10.1 bn ≈ | 27.8 bn ≈ | 43.3 bn ≈ | 35.5 bn ≈ | 39.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024derived |
| Interest expense | 3.4 bn | 2.0 bn | 8.3 bn | 21.3 bn | 11.9 bn | 19.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024verified |
| Pre-tax income | 2.7 bn | 3.3 bn | 5.4 bn | 7.3 bn | 3.3 bn | 5.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024verified |
| Income tax | 495.5 m | 785.6 m | 919.7 m | 900.3 m | -2.8 bn | -4.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024verified |
| Net income | 2.0 bn | 3.2 bn | 4.5 bn | 7.1 bn | 6.9 bn | 12.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024verified |
| Diluted EPS | — | 1.49 | 2.10 | 3.27 | 3.15 | 5.75 | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.86 | 0.46 | 0.37 | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Apr 2021derived |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · TRY
| Line | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 7.4 bn | 10.2 bn | 11.9 bn | 30.6 bn | 42.8 bn | 50.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024verified |
| Inventories | 180.4 m | 178.4 m | 203.7 m | 458.7 m | 495.0 m | 540.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024verified |
| Current assets | 18.3 bn | 19.3 bn | 20.6 bn | 48.6 bn | 77.3 bn | 102.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 11.1 bn | 12.5 bn | 43.2 bn | 76.3 bn | 71.5 bn | 66.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024verified |
| Goodwill | — | — | 40.0 m | 259.4 m | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2023verified |
| Total assets | 42.8 bn | 45.7 bn | 51.5 bn | 151.3 bn | 235.0 bn | 247.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024verified |
| Accounts payable | 3.8 bn | 4.1 bn | 5.0 bn | 11.0 bn | 17.0 bn | 20.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024verified |
| Long-term debt | 13.1 bn | 12.7 bn | 16.4 bn | 45.9 bn | 61.2 bn | 57.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024verified |
| Current liabilities | 11.7 bn | 12.7 bn | 11.6 bn | 28.3 bn | 48.5 bn | 57.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024verified |
| Total liabilities | 26.7 bn | 27.6 bn | 30.7 bn | 85.9 bn | 125.6 bn | 124.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024verified |
| Equity | 16.1 bn | 65.6 bn | 110.6 bn | 107.7 bn | 109.4 bn | 122.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Apr 2021verified |
Cash flow · TRY
| Line | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 5.8 bn | 9.0 bn | 21.0 bn | 61.6 bn | 42.3 bn | 41.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024verified |
| Capex | 3.0 bn | 3.2 bn | 8.5 bn | 18.1 bn | 15.4 bn | 14.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024verified |
| Free cash flow | 2.9 bn ≈ | 5.8 bn ≈ | 12.5 bn ≈ | 43.6 bn ≈ | 26.9 bn ≈ | 27.5 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024derived |
| Investing cash flow | -4.5 bn | -3.0 bn | -14.5 bn | -29.0 bn | -31.7 bn | -20.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024verified |
| Financing cash flow | -534.4 m | -3.5 bn | -10.0 bn | -9.9 bn | 3.4 bn | 6.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024verified |
| Dividends paid | 1.9 bn | 1.0 bn | 811.6 m | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Apr 2021verified |
| Share repurchases | 94.6 m | 10.0 m | 25.0 m | 858.0 k | — | 50.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 May 2024verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 69 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
- Quality65
- Growth100
- Balance sheet48
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 69/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 5.1% | 46 (vs peers) | 17% |
| Net margin · Quality | 11.7% | 60 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 219.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 15.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 39.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.2x | 64 (vs peers) | 17% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 0.4x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.8x | 81 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet48/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality65/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
TURKCELL ILETISIM HIZMETLERI A S (TKC). Latest full fiscal year: 2023; data up to 2023-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 107.1 bn TRY in 2023; YoY growth 14.6%; net margin 11.7%; ROE 10.8%; net debt/EBITDA 0.2x.
The estimated value range is 31.99–97.74 TRY per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 69/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns, valuation. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 219.1%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 15.5%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 39.9%
- Current ratio: 1.8x
What contradicts it
- Interest coverage: 0.4x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Telephone Communications (No Radiotelephone) (SIC 4813) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMXAmerica Movil Sab De Cv | 1,508.4 bn | 1,107.5 | 6.8% | 3.2% | −11.2% | +8% / +38% |
| VZVerizon Communications Inc. | 191.4 bn | 11.8 | 15.4% | 11.8% | +2.5% | +12% / +20% |
| TAt&T Inc. | 147.1 bn | 11.8 | 10.5% | 10.2% | +2.7% | −16% / +32% |
| LUMNLumen Technologies, Inc. | 4.6 bn | — | — | -5.8% | −5.4% | −45% / +241% |
| TDSTelephone And Data Systems, Inc. | 4.1 bn | 11.4 | 8.2% | 33.2% | −5.3% | −11% / +83% |
| ATEXAnterix Inc. | 1.5 bn | 22.2 | 27.9% | 933.0% | +7.8% | +278% / +138% |
| UNITUniti Group Inc. | 1.3 bn | 1.7 | 666.9% | 30.4% | +91.5% | −14% / −41% |
| SHENShenandoah Telecommunications Company | 575.2 m | — | -4.4% | -10.2% | +9.1% | −5% / −53% |
| ATNIAtn International, Inc. | 397.3 m | 2.4 | 32.2% | 23.2% | −0.2% | +22% / −15% |
| CXDOCrexendo, Inc. | 174.7 m | 43.6 | 5.6% | 4.5% | +12.0% | −25% / +78% |
| NXPLNextPlat Corp | 21.8 m | — | -43.1% | -17.8% | −17.8% | +34% / −47% |
| IQSTIQSTEL Inc. | 9.0 m | — | -56.0% | -2.2% | +11.9% | −80% / −94% |
| SURGSurgepays, Inc. | 8.2 m | — | — | -47.9% | −6.4% | −92% / −98% |
| PHIPLDT Inc. | — | — | 29.3% | 14.9% | +2.8% | −19% / −22% |
| CTGGQwest Corp | 0 | — | -15.8% | -40.1% | −13.8% | unavailable / unavailable |
| KTKT Corporation | — | — | 2.8% | 1.7% | +0.4% | +1% / +41% |
| BCEBce Inc. | — | — | 32.5% | 26.6% | +0.2% | −10% / −46% |
| IDTIDT Corporation | — | 24.3 | 25.4% | 6.7% | +5.4% | +69% / +186% |
| TKCTurkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A S | — | — | 10.8% | 11.7% | +14.6% | −18% / +10% |
| TEOTelecom Argentina SA | — | — | -2.4% | -2.0% | +53.0% | −17% / +26% |
| TIMBTim S.A. | — | — | 17.1% | 16.2% | +4.6% | −22% / +3% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TKC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 17 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (04 Nov 2026), 6-K (03 Nov 2026), 6-K (28 Oct 2026), 6-K (27 Oct 2026).
In brief
Turkcell is the largest mobile and fixed operator in Türkiye and is expanding into data, cloud and digital services. Total revenues were 241.5 billion TRY in 2025, and the nationwide 5G launch in March 2026 strengthens its position against competitors.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
- Activity is concentrated in Türkiye, where economic and currency instability can affect results 1.
- A heavy tax burden, through the treasury share, VAT and other sector taxes, reduces operating margins 1.
- Long-term contracts delay the pass-through of inflation into prices, which can compress real revenue 1.
Opportunities
- Growth in data centers and cloud through the Google Cloud partnership could open new revenue sources 1.
- Fiber penetration in Türkiye remains below the OECD average, which could support FTTH expansion 1.
- IoT and mobile data services could grow with the 5G launch if customer adoption follows expectations 1.
Risks
- Macroeconomic risk in Türkiyehigh
A deterioration of the economy, depreciation of the lira or political instability could affect operations and financial condition 1.
- Taxes and regulationhigh
Changes to VAT, the special communications tax or the treasury share could have retroactive effects on profitability 1.
- Inflation and contractsmedium
The prevalence of 12-month contracts could delay the transfer of costs into tariffs 1.
- Geopolitical shockmedium
The regional conflict could raise risk premiums and reduce capital flows into Türkiye 1.
- Cloud project executionlow
If the Google Cloud region is delayed, data center revenue could be postponed relative to plans 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If 5G and data service adoption grows, the company could convert its wider spectrum into higher revenue per subscriber 1.
- If the Google Cloud partnership is delivered on schedule, the data center segment could become an important growth source 1.
- Spectrum leadership and an extensive fiber network could sustain market share over the long term 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Pace of 5G adoption and mobile data revenue2026
- Progress of the Google Cloud partnership and data center investment2027
- Changes to sector tax rates and VATnext 10-K
- Inflation trend and contract tariff adjustmentsQ1 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 17 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (04 Nov 2026), 6-K (03 Nov 2026), 6-K (28 Oct 2026), 6-K (27 Oct 2026).
The business
Turkcell İletişim Hizmetleri A.Ş., founded in 1993 and operational from 1994, is a Turkish telecom operator that has evolved from a traditional mobile operator into a technology and communications company. At December 31, 2025 it had 46.2 million subscribers across the group, including 43.9 million in Türkiye, per its annual report 1. The company is listed on Borsa İstanbul and the NYSE, being the only company listed on both 1.
Turkcell bases its position on the largest mobile spectrum portfolio in the market: after the October 2025 5G tender it holds 394.4 MHz, or 41.6% of the mobile spectrum allocated to operators in Türkiye 1. Its network includes 67.1 thousand km of its own fiber and FTTH and FWA services 1. Nationwide commercial 5G launched on March 31, 2026 1.
The company has expanded into data centers and cloud through its subsidiary Turkcell Digital Business Services and a partnership with Google Cloud for a new region in Türkiye, expected to be operational around 2028–2029 1. Total revenues were 241.5 billion TRY in 2025, with Adjusted EBITDA of 104.0 billion TRY and capital expenditures of 90.0 billion TRY 1.
Segments
Market context
Trends
- Transition to 5Gtailwind
The 5G launch and wider spectrum could support data growth and IoT services, although it requires large investment in backhaul and base stations 1.
- Cloud and data centerstailwind
Demand for cloud and AI services could generate new revenue through the Google Cloud partnership and expanded data center capacity 1.
- Disinflation and pricingmixed
Lower inflation could allow smaller tariff adjustments, but long-term contracts delay the pass-through of costs into prices 1.
- Sector taxesheadwind
Sector taxes such as the treasury share and VAT could erode profitability or reduce demand if raised 1.
Competitive position
Turkcell competes with Türk Telekom, which holds the predominant xDSL infrastructure, and with Vodafone Türkiye, a private operator 1. The company says its spectrum lead over competitors widened after the 2025 5G tender 1.
In fixed services competition is shifting from xDSL to fiber, and Turkcell's advantage depends on how quickly it extends its FTTH network and FWA offering 1.
- Türk Telekom
Incumbent in xDSL, controlled through TWF, which holds 60% of its shares, with the Ministry of Treasury and Finance holding 25% 1.
- Vodafone Türkiye
Private mobile operator that entered the Turkish market by acquiring Telsim, with no public listing in the analysed source 1.
- Google Cloud
Strategic partner for the Türkiye cloud region, though it could also become a competitor in cloud 1.
- Global OTT operators
Global digital service providers against which the company compares its B2C portfolio 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Turkey’s wealth fund, Turkcell set to control 69 pct of Togg in €368 mln dealTurkish Minute (TR, EN, exil) · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 03 Nov 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)04 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)03 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)03 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)03 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)23 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)22 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)20 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)09 Oct 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Turkcell İletişim Hizmetleri A.Ş. · 17 Apr 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.