olivLaw · US equity research
TNL Mediagene TNMG
Services-Advertising · SIC 7310 · Vertical: Services-Advertising (SIC 7310)
TNL Mediagene is a digital media, technology and digital studio company active mainly in Japan and Taiwan, selling advertising services aimed at Millennial and Gen Z audiences. The current question is whether its shift toward the digital studio, its largest segment, and AI-based tools can offset a net loss that remained substantial in fiscal 2025.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, TNL Mediagene (TNMG) stock was 3.20 USD (−10.11% on the day), with market capitalisation 8.2 m USD, beta 1.79, 52-week range 2.60–65.76 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 45.6
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 2.64 – 4.08
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.39 · band width 42.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 3.68 / 9.47
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.07 / -0.12
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −27.3% | −1.1% | −26.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −27.3% | −0.5% | −26.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | −62.6% | +4.4% | −67.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | −85.3% | +12.3% | −97.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | −93.1% | +13.5% | −106.6 pp | −46.8% |
| 3 years | −99.8% | +76.4% | −176.2 pp | −65.5% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 20.0 m | 35.8 m | 48.5 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +79.1% | +35.3% |
| Net income | -11.0 m | -805.0 k | -85.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -1.20 | -0.04 | -3.46 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -55.0% | -2.2% | -175.3% |
| Free cash flow | -812.6 k | -1.5 m | -10.3 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 3.6 m USD
- Financial debt
- 5.9 m USD
- Net debt
- 2.3 m USD
- Equity
- 36.4 m USD
- Total assets
- 92.9 m USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.16x
- Current ratio
- 0.54x
- ROE
- -156.3%
- ROA
- -80.0%
- FCF margin
- -21.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 20.0 m | 35.8 m | 48.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 12.3 m | 23.2 m | 30.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 7.7 m | 12.7 m | 17.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Research & development | 2.5 m | 3.3 m | 3.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Operating income | -3.4 m | -7.4 m | -76.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | — | 2.8 m | 3.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| EBITDA | — | -4.6 m ≈ | -73.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025derived |
| Interest expense | 137.0 k | 299.0 k | 8.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | -11.6 m | -1.8 m | -85.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Income tax | -247.2 k | -591.1 k | -307.2 k | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Net income | -11.0 m | -805.0 k | -85.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | -1.20 | -0.04 | -3.46 | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 3.7 m | 3.0 m | 3.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Receivables | — | 8.8 m | 8.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Inventories | — | 115.6 k | 87.8 k | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Current assets | — | 16.9 m | 17.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 77.5 k | 537.0 k | 430.8 k | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Goodwill | — | 60.7 m | 34.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 33.4 m | 31.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Total assets | — | 119.6 m | 92.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | — | 4.9 m | 4.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 5.3 m | 1.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 3.1 m | 4.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 24.9 m | 33.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 47.2 m | 56.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Equity | -24.1 m | 72.4 m | 36.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | — | 26.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -760.1 k | -1.4 m | -10.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Capex | 52.5 k | 87.2 k | 89.1 k | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | -812.6 k ≈ | -1.5 m ≈ | -10.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -2.4 m | 252.7 k | 922.9 k | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | 5.0 m | 531.0 k | 10.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 8.2 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
35% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -110.2% | 0 (vs peers) | 29% |
| Net margin · Quality | -175.3% | 0 (vs peers) | 18% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -9.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.5x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -125.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 24% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
TNL Mediagene (TNMG). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 48.5 m USD in 2024; YoY growth 35.3%; net margin -175.3%; ROE -155.9%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -110.2%
- Net margin: -175.3%
- Interest coverage: -9.3x
- Current ratio: 0.5x
- FCF yield: -125.9%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Services-Advertising (SIC 7310) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 13 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCOClear Channel Outdoor Holdings, Inc. | 1.2 bn | — | — | -6.3% | +6.6% | unavailable / unavailable |
| MNTNMNTN, Inc. | 170.5 m | 13.9 | 19.7% | 18.0% | +28.6% | −24% / unavailable |
| EDHLEverbright Digital Holding Ltd. | 161.3 m | — | -70.8% | -120.6% | −32.6% | −56% / unavailable |
| NCMINational Cinemedia, Inc. | 147.7 m | — | -2.2% | -3.1% | unavailable | −64% / −61% |
| FLNTFluent, Inc. | 107.1 m | — | -170.5% | -11.5% | −18.0% | +90% / +9% |
| THRYThryv Holdings, Inc. | 57.8 m | — | -7.6% | -2.3% | −4.7% | −77% / −93% |
| TZOOTravelzoo | 54.5 m | 191.4 | — | 0.5% | +9.3% | −25% / −47% |
| IZEAIZEA Worldwide, Inc. | 40.8 m | — | -5.1% | -9.4% | −12.9% | −53% / −3% |
| TNMGTNL Mediagene | 8.2 m | — | -155.9% | -175.3% | +35.3% | −93% / −100% |
| INUVInuvo, Inc. | 7.3 m | — | -43.9% | -8.6% | +2.9% | −85% / −85% |
| PSQHPSQ Holdings, Inc. | 6.5 m | — | -269.3% | -132.7% | +81.1% | −90% / −98% |
| STFSStar Fashion Culture Holdings Limited | 6.3 m | — | -39.9% | -13.7% | +83.7% | −8% / unavailable |
| IBTAIbotta, Inc. | 0 | — | -5.7% | -4.5% | −6.8% | +164% / unavailable |
| ANGIAngi Inc. | — | — | -27.3% | -23.8% | −13.0% | −40% / −70% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TNMG from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (03 Nov 2026), 6-K (30 Oct 2026), 6-K (21 Oct 2026), 6-K (16 Oct 2026), 6-K (02 Oct 2026), 6-K (03 Sept 2026).
In brief
TNL Mediagene is a digital media, technology and digital studio company active mainly in Japan and Taiwan, selling advertising services aimed at Millennial and Gen Z audiences. The current question is whether its shift toward the digital studio, its largest segment, and AI-based tools can offset a net loss that remained substantial in fiscal 2025 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Portfolio of independent digital brands with young audiences and proprietary first- and zero-party data 1.
- Long-standing relationships with corporate and government clients, including well-known multinational companies 1.
- Integrated offer combining media, technology and digital studio as a single access point for clients 1.
Weaknesses
- Net losses in every year reviewed, with a significant loss in fiscal 2024 tied to the listing transaction 1.
- Substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern is disclosed in the financial statements 1.
- Digital studio revenue fell from the prior year, showing reliance on project-based work and public sector clients 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Going concernhigh
The financial statements include substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue its operations, which could limit its access to financing 1.
- Geographic concentrationhigh
Operations, audience and clients are concentrated in Japan and Taiwan, so economic developments there have a direct impact on results 1.
- Dependence on audience engagementmedium
If user numbers or engagement decline, advertising revenue could be affected, and the company acknowledges that audience growth may slow over time 1.
- Global economic slowdownmedium
Recession, inflation and trade tensions could reduce client spending on advertising and marketing services 1.
- AI product launchmedium
Success of AI-assisted offerings is not assured, and the filing notes that client adoption remains uncertain 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the digital studio resumes growth after the decline in fiscal 2025, combined with AI products, total revenue could recover 1.
- Proprietary first- and zero-party data could become more valuable as cookies are restricted, favouring the company's platform 1.
- Long client relationships could provide more predictable revenue and cross-selling opportunities 1.
What would break the thesis
- Repeated net losses and doubts about going concern could force costly capital raises or restructuring 1.
- Concentration in Japan and Taiwan could expose the company to falling demand if regional economies slow 1.
- Digital studio revenue declined in fiscal 2025, and a recovery depends on new products that are not yet widely tested 1.
What to watch
- Digital studio revenue trend and client adoption of AI productsQ1 2027
- Trend in monthly unique users and engagement across digital brands2027
- Revenue from retail media and e-commerce2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (03 Nov 2026), 6-K (30 Oct 2026), 6-K (21 Oct 2026), 6-K (16 Oct 2026), 6-K (02 Oct 2026), 6-K (03 Sept 2026).
The business
The company runs three business units: the digital studio, which offers integrated marketing strategy, creative design and market research; media and branded content, which publishes 26 independent digital brands; and technology, which supports the other two with proprietary data, retail media and analytics 1. Total revenue was 45.0 million USD in fiscal 2025, and the digital studio was the largest segment at 18.7 million USD 1. The company was formed in May 2023 through the merger of TNL and Mediagene and has been listed on Nasdaq since December 2024 1.
The medium-term strategy emphasises growing the digital studio through wider services for existing clients and AI-assisted products launched in the fourth quarter of 2025 1. The company also uses AI tools for translation and editorial production to lower content costs in digital media 1.
The model rests on long-term relationships with corporate clients, many engagements lasting three to five years, which provides continuity and cross-selling opportunities 1. However, the company posted losses in all three years reviewed, and its financial statements disclose substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern 1.
Market context
The company operates in digital advertising across East Asia, where digital ad spend is described as rising and younger audiences are a sought-after segment for advertisers 1. Its audience is concentrated in Japan, where about 71.8% of users are located, and in Taiwan, with about 16.3% 1.
According to the company, the market is moving from impression-based advertising toward performance advertising and retail media, where proprietary first- and zero-party data gains value as cookies are restricted 1. The company believes fragmented competitors could make the region ripe for consolidation 1.
Trends
- Shift to performance advertisingtailwind
Clients increasingly demand measurable return on ad spend and retail media rather than simple exposure, which favours the company's data platform 1.
- Cookie restrictionstailwind
Privacy regulation and browser limits reduce the usefulness of third-party cookies, and the company's own data could become a competitive advantage 1.
- AI-driven searchheadwind
AI-based search and content discovery could change referral traffic to digital brands, which could reduce advertising revenue over time 1.
- Economic slowdown and inflationmixed
Regional recession, inflation and geopolitical tensions could cut client advertising budgets, and demographic pressures weigh on Japan and Taiwan 1.
Competitive position
The company says its main rivals are fragmented and occupy limited space in the digital advertising ecosystem, while it combines media, technology and studio in one offer 1. The filing does not give a detailed competitor list, but it refers to traditional agencies that rely on outside providers for digital services 1.
Its stated advantages are proprietary data, an independent brand portfolio and long-standing relationships with multinational and government clients 1. Rivals without their own media brands would have more limited access to first-party data, according to the company 1.
- Traditional advertising agencies
Named in the filing as providers that depend on the company for digital services, though they can also offer integrated marketing 1.
- Advertising technology providers
Rivals in the technology segment offering advertising and analytics tools, described in the filing as fragmented 1.
- E-commerce platforms
Platforms on which the company earns commission and with which it competes indirectly for e-commerce advertising budgets 1.
- Digital media publishers
Other digital brands competing for Millennial and Gen Z audiences in Japan and Taiwan 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)03 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)21 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)16 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)03 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)25 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)03 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)26 Jun 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / TNL Mediagene · 30 Apr 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.