olivLaw · US equity research
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. WH
Hotels & Motels · SIC 7011 · Vertical: Hotels & Motels (SIC 7011)
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts is the world's largest hotel franchisor by number of franchised properties, with over 8,389 affiliated hotels and about 869,000 rooms in roughly 100 countries. Its asset-light, fee-based model has generated solid cash flow, and after U.S. RevPAR grew in the third quarter of 2026 the company raised its full-year outlook.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (WH) stock was 80.50 USD (+1.80% on the day), with market capitalisation 5.9 bn USD, P/E 29.8 on diluted EPS of 2.70 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.11%, beta 0.97, 52-week range 67.15–89.91 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 410.0 m USD (+7.3% YoY), net income of 99.0 m USD (−5.7% YoY), diluted EPS 1.33 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 66.3
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 70.70 – 80.06
- above the upper band · %B 1.05 · band width 12.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 72.67 / 77.88
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.58 / 1.09
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +13.0% | −1.1% | +14.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | +5.8% | −0.5% | +6.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −3.4% | +4.4% | −7.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +6.5% | +12.3% | −5.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +9.9% | +13.5% | −3.6 pp | +1.1% |
| 3 years | +7.7% | +76.4% | −68.7 pp | +9.3% |
| 5 years | −7.4% | +63.7% | −71.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 341.0 m | 316.0 m | 397.0 m | 382.0 m | 334.0 m | 327.0 m | 375.0 m | 410.0 m |
| Operating income | 129.0 m | 112.0 m | 150.0 m | 178.0 m | -36.0 m | 114.0 m | 174.0 m | 172.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 17.0 m | 15.0 m | 15.0 m | 15.0 m | 16.0 m | 16.0 m | 15.0 m | 14.0 m |
| Interest expense | 31.0 m | 33.0 m | 34.0 m | 36.0 m | 36.0 m | 34.0 m | 36.0 m | 37.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 98.0 m | 79.0 m | 116.0 m | 142.0 m | -72.0 m | 80.0 m | 138.0 m | 135.0 m |
| Income tax | 13.0 m | 18.0 m | 29.0 m | 37.0 m | -12.0 m | 19.0 m | 36.0 m | 36.0 m |
| Net income | 85.0 m | 61.0 m | 87.0 m | 105.0 m | -60.0 m | 61.0 m | 102.0 m | 99.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.08 ≈ | 0.78 | 1.13 | 1.36 | -0.79 ≈ | 0.80 | 1.36 | 1.33 |
| Operating cash flow | 134.0 m | 59.0 m | 70.0 m ≈ | 86.0 m ≈ | 152.0 m | 42.0 m | 91.0 m ≈ | 93.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 25.0 m | 7.0 m | 12.0 m ≈ | 11.0 m ≈ | 16.0 m | 7.0 m | 14.0 m ≈ | 11.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 30.0 m | 33.0 m | 32.0 m | 31.0 m | 31.0 m | 34.0 m | 32.0 m | 32.0 m |
| Share repurchases | 27.0 m | 74.0 m | 79.0 m ≈ | 70.0 m ≈ | 43.0 m | 51.0 m | 56.0 m ≈ | 89.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 72 percentile of its own 32-quarter history (min 0.0, median 24.6, max 60.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +45.9% | +9.9% | −36.7% | +20.4% | −4.3% | −6.7% | +0.8% | +1.5% |
| Net income | 162.0 m | 157.0 m | -132.0 m | 244.0 m | 355.0 m | 289.0 m | 289.0 m | 193.0 m |
| Net income YoY | −29.6% | −3.1% | −184.1% | unavailable | +45.5% | −18.6% | 0.0% | −33.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.62 | 1.62 | -1.42 | 2.60 | 3.91 | 3.41 | 3.61 | 2.50 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −29.9% | 0.0% | −187.7% | unavailable | +50.4% | −12.8% | +5.9% | −30.7% |
| net % | 8.7% | 7.6% | -10.2% | 15.6% | 23.7% | 20.7% | 20.5% | 13.5% |
| Free cash flow | 158.0 m | 50.0 m | 34.0 m | 389.0 m | 360.0 m | 339.0 m | 241.0 m | 321.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 64.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 45.0 m USD
- Net debt
- -19.0 m USD
- Equity
- 468.0 m USD
- Total assets
- 4.2 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.10x
- Current ratio
- 0.86x
- ROE
- 34.5%
- ROA
- 4.6%
- FCF margin
- 22.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -46.0 m | 446.0 m | 558.0 m | 503.0 m | 495.0 m | 402.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 98.0 m | 95.0 m | 77.0 m | 76.0 m | 71.0 m | 62.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 52.0 m ≈ | 541.0 m ≈ | 635.0 m ≈ | 579.0 m ≈ | 566.0 m ≈ | 464.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 112.0 m | 93.0 m | 80.0 m | 102.0 m | 124.0 m | 139.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -158.0 m | 335.0 m | 476.0 m | 398.0 m | 368.0 m | 263.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -26.0 m | 91.0 m | 121.0 m | 109.0 m | 79.0 m | 70.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -132.0 m | 244.0 m | 355.0 m | 289.0 m | 289.0 m | 193.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -1.42 | 2.60 | 3.91 | 3.41 | 3.61 | 2.50 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 93.4 m | 93.9 m | 90.8 m | 84.9 m | 80.1 m | 77.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.56 | 0.88 | 1.28 | 1.40 | 1.52 | 1.64 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 493.0 m | 171.0 m | 161.0 m | 66.0 m | 103.0 m | 64.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 295.0 m | 246.0 m | 234.0 m | 241.0 m | 271.0 m | 291.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 900.0 m | 720.0 m | 545.0 m | 373.0 m | 467.0 m | 435.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 278.0 m | 106.0 m | 99.0 m | 88.0 m | 94.0 m | 104.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 513.0 m | 474.0 m | 375.0 m | 347.0 m | 318.0 m | 282.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 4.6 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 28.0 m | 31.0 m | 39.0 m | 32.0 m | 37.0 m | 38.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 21.0 m | 21.0 m | 20.0 m | 37.0 m | 43.0 m | 45.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 346.0 m | 397.0 m | 406.0 m | 459.0 m | 466.0 m | 507.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 3.7 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 963.0 m † | 1.1 bn † | 962.0 m † | 746.0 m † | 650.0 m † | 468.0 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 67.0 m | 426.0 m | 399.0 m | 376.0 m | 290.0 m | 367.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 33.0 m | 37.0 m | 39.0 m | 37.0 m | 49.0 m | 46.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 34.0 m ≈ | 389.0 m ≈ | 360.0 m ≈ | 339.0 m ≈ | 241.0 m ≈ | 321.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -31.0 m | -34.0 m | 179.0 m | -66.0 m | -65.0 m | -103.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 363.0 m | -713.0 m | -584.0 m | -402.0 m | -175.0 m | -314.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 53.0 m | 82.0 m | 116.0 m | 118.0 m | 122.0 m | 127.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 50.0 m | 107.0 m | 448.0 m | 393.0 m | 310.0 m | 266.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 59 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 5.9 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation57
- Returns94
- Quality95
- Balance sheet52
- Growth0
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 21.55 – 110.30 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)68.70 – 103.61 (Mid 82.32)WACC 9.3% · starting FCFF 432.8 m USD · terminal value share of EV 72%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -2.5%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA41.05 – 110.08 (Mid 68.29)14 companies used · median multiple 10.2x · quartiles 6.1x – 16.4xBYD, CHH, CNTY, CZR, FLL, HLT, IHG, LVS, MGM, MLCO, PK, TNL, WYNN, XHR
- Peers: P/E49.66 – 110.30 (Mid 75.39)14 companies used · median multiple 27.9x · quartiles 18.4x – 40.8xATAT, BYD, CHH, HLT, IHG, LVS, MAR, MCRI, MGM, MLCO, RRR, SHO, TNL, WYNN
- Dividend discount (DDM)21.55 – 28.98 (Mid 24.72)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 59/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 61.9% | 100 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 14.0% | 80 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 163.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -1.6% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -13.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.1x | 84 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.0x | 23 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 18 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 29.8x | 53 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 12.0x | 50 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 5.6% | 70 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 6.3% | 90 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 39.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet52/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality95/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns94/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation57/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (WH). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 1.5%; net margin 14.0%; ROE 38.2%; net debt/EBITDA -0.1x.
The estimated value range is 45.35–106.84 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 71.84 USD, the price of 80.50 USD leaves a potential of -10.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -12.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 59/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 61.9%
- Net margin: 14.0%
- FCF conversion: 163.4%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -0.1x
- FCF yield: 5.6%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 6.3%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 39.1%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -1.6%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -13.9%
- Interest coverage: 3.0x
- Current ratio: 1.0x
Versus the vertical median
Hotels & Motels (SIC 7011) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 26 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HTHTH World Group Ltd | 154.3 bn | 218.4 | 41.5% | 20.1% | +10.5% | +9% / +37% |
| MARMarriott International Inc | 109.4 bn | 42.4 | — | 9.7% | +4.3% | +39% / +110% |
| HLTHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | 83.8 bn | 50.8 | — | 13.4% | +7.7% | +32% / +125% |
| IHGInterContinental Hotels Group PLC | 29.0 bn | 36.2 | — | 14.6% | +5.4% | +31% / +124% |
| LVSLas Vegas Sands Corp. | 25.5 bn | 16.7 | 262.8% | 11.8% | +15.2% | −40% / −12% |
| ATATAtour Lifestyle Holdings Limited | 14.5 bn | 63.7 | 50.5% | 16.6% | +41.0% | −9% / +97% |
| WYNNWynn Resorts, Limited | 8.5 bn | 19.7 | — | 6.1% | +0.1% | −36% / −2% |
| MGMMGM Resorts International | 8.3 bn | 12.7 | 26.8% | 3.9% | +1.7% | −7% / −17% |
| CZRCaesars Entertainment, Inc. | 6.0 bn | — | -15.1% | -4.5% | +2.1% | +26% / −34% |
| WHWyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 5.9 bn | 29.8 | 38.2% | 14.0% | +1.5% | +10% / +8% |
| MLCOMelco Resorts & Entertainment Limited | 5.7 bn | 30.6 | — | 3.6% | +11.3% | −48% / −33% |
| BYDBoyd Gaming Corp | 5.5 bn | 11.7 | 19.6% | 12.3% | +4.1% | −7% / +32% |
| CHHChoice Hotels International Inc | 5.4 bn | 26.7 | 146.5% | 12.7% | +0.8% | +32% / +9% |
| TNLTravel & Leisure Co. | 4.7 bn | 20.7 | — | 5.7% | +4.1% | +13% / +118% |
| PKPark Hotels & Resorts Inc. | 3.4 bn | — | -5.0% | -6.4% | −2.2% | +57% / +14% |
| SHOSunstone Hotel Investors, Inc. | 2.4 bn | 54.7 | 2.8% | 5.3% | +6.0% | +39% / +32% |
| PENNPenn Entertainment, Inc. | 2.3 bn | — | -37.4% | -12.7% | +5.8% | +18% / −29% |
| XHRXenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 2.0 bn | 628.9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | +3.8% | +57% / +79% |
| MCRIMonarch Casino & Resort, Inc. | 2.0 bn | 17.9 | 20.4% | 20.4% | +4.4% | +17% / +80% |
| BALYBally’s Corporation | 680.3 m | — | — | — | +0.1% | −23% / unavailable |
| FLLFull House Resorts Inc | 29.1 m | — | -936.4% | -12.1% | +3.5% | −70% / −84% |
| CNTYCentury Casinos, Inc. | 16.9 m | — | — | -9.6% | −0.5% | −61% / −86% |
| MRNOMurano Global Investments Plc | — | — | -54.7% | -488.8% | +154.6% | −88% / −98% |
| HHyatt Hotels Corporation | — | 98.6 | 5.6% | 2.6% | +6.8% | +16% / +66% |
| GHGGreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. | — | — | 11.2% | 15.2% | −14.7% | −50% / −74% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for WH from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 45.85 Total return -41% · Per year -41% | 81.31 Total return 3% · Per year 3% | 122.81 Total return 55% · Per year 55% |
| 3 years | 39.24 Total return -47% · Per year -19% | 78.79 Total return 4% · Per year 1% | 131.41 Total return 71% · Per year 20% |
| 5 years | 33.59 Total return -51% · Per year -13% | 76.35 Total return 5% · Per year 1% | 140.61 Total return 88% · Per year 14% |
- Exit P/E± 19.70
- Net margin± 13.79
- Annual revenue growth± 12.02
- Annual dilution± 1.16
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts is the world's largest hotel franchisor by number of franchised properties, with over 8,389 affiliated hotels and about 869,000 rooms in roughly 100 countries 1. Its asset-light, fee-based model has generated solid cash flow, and after U.S. RevPAR grew in the third quarter of 2026 the company raised its full-year outlook 23.
SWOT
Strengths
- The asset-light, recurring fee model produces high margins and strong cash flow that fund growth and capital returns to shareholders 13.
- A diversified franchisee base and a loyalty program with tens of millions of members give the company a solid position against competitors 1.
- A broad brand portfolio across price segments and a record pipeline give visibility into future room growth 13.
Weaknesses
- Revenue depends largely on franchisee RevPAR, so declines in occupancy or rates pass directly into company income 1.
- Exposure to markets such as China and Asia Pacific has weighed on performance, and results vary unevenly by region 13.
- The insolvency of a large European franchisee led to impairments and deferred royalties, showing concentration in credit risk 12.
Opportunities
- Expansion in the extended stay segment, growth in Europe and Latin America, and new partnerships could open additional revenue streams 1.
- If public infrastructure and artificial intelligence investment materialize, they could support demand and new developments 1.
- Ancillary revenue, including co-branded credit cards, could grow through new products and strategic partnerships 1.
Threats
- A decline in travel from economic slowdown, inflation or political instability could reduce hotel demand 12.
- Online intermediaries and language models could reduce direct customer access and increase acquisition costs 1.
- New hotel supply can create extra competition and force fee reductions for franchisees 1.
Risks
- Insolvency of large franchiseeshigh
The insolvency of a major European franchisee can lead to impairments, deferred royalties and loss of future fees from those properties 13.
- Slower travel demandhigh
An economic downturn or rising unemployment could reduce travel and hotel occupancy, directly affecting room-revenue-based fees 12.
- Debt and interest ratesmedium
Total debt above 2 billion USD and higher interest costs could limit financial flexibility and the capital return program 12.
- Intermediaries and AI-based modelsmedium
If online intermediaries or language models take control of distribution, the company could lose visibility and pay higher commissions 1.
- Geopolitical and currency riskslow
Trade tensions, political instability and currency swings in international markets could affect operating results and cash flows 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- U.S. RevPAR and room growth, together with a record pipeline, could support continued growth in fee income 23.
- The asset-light model and strong cash flow allow capital returns through buybacks and dividends, and the buyback authorization was increased 23.
- The updated 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook was raised, suggesting operating momentum could be better than initially expected 3.
What would break the thesis
- Global RevPAR grew only 2% in the third quarter of 2026, and international growth remains under pressure, particularly in China 3.
- The effect of a large franchisee insolvency and the risk of further lost royalties could continue to weigh on results 13.
- High leverage and elevated interest rates could limit the company's ability to fund shareholder returns in weaker periods 2.
What to watch
- U.S. and international RevPAR trends in constant currencyQ4 2026
- Outcome of the Revo insolvency and any further impairmentsnext 10-K
- Delivery against the 740 to 745 million USD adjusted EBITDA outlook2026
- Trajectory of leverage against the 3 to 4 times net debt target rangeQ1 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (NYSE: WH) licenses its hotel brands across 25 brands to third-party owners, focusing on economy, midscale and upper midscale segments with a strong presence in secondary and tertiary cities 1. Revenue comes mainly from royalties, franchise fees and marketing, reservation and loyalty fees, and the company does not own most of its hotels, which keeps its capital needs low 1. The Wyndham Rewards program, with over 122 million enrolled members, supports guest retention and room demand for franchisees 1.
Segments
Hotel Franchising
The primary segment licenses brands and provides related services to hotel owners, generating Hotel Franchising adjusted EBITDA of 781 million USD in 2025, versus 767 million USD in 2024 1. The typical royalty is about 5% of gross room revenue, plus a marketing and reservation fee 1.
Market context
The global hotel market is fragmented, and franchising allows rapid expansion without large property investment; in the U.S. the company's brands account for about 19% of branded rooms, a strong position in economy and midscale 1. Demand remains sensitive to the economic cycle, inflation and interest rates, which could affect consumer travel decisions 2.
Trends
- U.S. RevPAR recoverytailwind
U.S. RevPAR growth in the third quarter of 2026 was broad-based across regions, suggesting demand is recovering in the core market, though whether the pace holds in coming quarters remains to be seen.
- Weaker demand in Chinaheadwind
RevPAR in China fell 10% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2026 as softer demand in Tier 2 cities weighed on performance, limiting growth in Asia.
- Online intermediaries and AI modelsheadwind
Travel intermediaries and large language models may capture bookings and influence commissions, which could reduce direct visibility for the company's brands.
- Infrastructure investment and pipeline growthmixed
The development pipeline reached a record level, and public and private infrastructure investment could support new openings, although many projects are still under construction.
Competitive position
The company competes with other hotel franchisors for franchisees and with alternative lodging channels such as short-term rentals and serviced apartments, which could reduce rates and occupancy at franchised hotels 1. Competitive pressure may force lower fees or less favorable terms, which would affect profitability 1.
- Marriott InternationalMAR
Direct rival in global hotel franchising and management, competing for the same franchisees and owners.
- Hilton WorldwideHLT
Hotel franchisor with a broad brand portfolio, competing for the same franchisees and real estate investors.
- Choice Hotels InternationalCHH
Hotel franchisor focused on economy and midscale segments, a direct competitor for owners and hotel conversions.
- Online booking platforms
Online intermediaries and peer-to-peer platforms can capture bookings and compete with the company's loyalty program.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Wyndham Launches Homes & Havens to Take On MarriottSkift · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- FinancialContent - 5 revealing analyst questions from Wyndham Q3 earnings callSurge — GDELT DOC · 23 Oct 2026 · RO
- Wyndham Courts AI Booking Agents in Push for Direct BookingsSkift · 22 Oct 2026 · EN
- How to earn Wyndham Rewards pointsThe Points Guy · 06 Oct 2026 · EN
- Travel + Leisure Taps Wyndham to Take Sports Illustrated Resorts Into HotelsSkift · 05 Oct 2026 · EN
- Wyndham CEO Says Gen Z Now Makes Up Nearly 10% of Membership BaseSkift · 23 Sept 2026 · EN
- Skift Global Forum Preview: Wyndham CEO on Placing Its Own Agents Inside the AI ModelsSkift · 17 Sept 2026 · EN
- Wyndham Rewards guide: How to earn and redeem points, elite status and moreThe Points Guy · 16 Sept 2026 · EN
- Wyndham’s Newest Brand Is a Boutique Spin-Off of Dolce HotelsSkift · 14 Sept 2026 · EN
- Wyndham Is Watching India’s Airports as Closely as Its HotelsSkift · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- Wyndham Clark hangs on in final round for wire-to-wire win at U.S. OpenThe Japan Times · 22 Jun 2026 · RO
- Wyndham Clark builds commanding lead in third round of U.S. OpenThe Japan Times · 21 Jun 2026 · RO
- Wyndham Clark takes first-day lead at suspended U.S. OpenThe Japan Times · 19 Jun 2026 · RO
SEC filings
- Quarterly report22 Oct 2026
- Current report21 Oct 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report23 Jul 2026
- Current report22 Jul 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Apr 2026
- Current report29 Apr 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement25 Mar 2026
- Current report03 Mar 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report27 Feb 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. · 19 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. · 22 Oct 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. · 21 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.