olivLaw · US equity research
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC IHG
Hotels & Motels · SIC 7011 · Vertical: Hotels & Motels (SIC 7011)
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) stock was 176.00 USD (+3.41% on the day), with market capitalisation 29.0 bn USD, P/E 36.2 on diluted EPS of 4.87 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.98%, beta 0.81, 52-week range 124.66–176.00 USD.
Data as of · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 66.7
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 157.62 – 175.63
- above the upper band · %B 1.02 · band width 10.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 161.46 / 152.75
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 3.03 / 2.49
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +10.3% | −1.1% | +11.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | +9.5% | −0.5% | +10.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | +20.9% | +4.4% | +16.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +25.0% | +12.3% | +12.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +44.0% | +13.5% | +30.5 pp | +1.1% |
| 3 years | +142.6% | +76.4% | +66.1 pp | +9.1% |
| 5 years | +141.4% | +63.7% | +77.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 89 percentile of its own 9-quarter history (min 20.7, median 28.9, max 45.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.3 bn | 4.6 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +143.1% | +6.7% | −48.3% | +21.4% | +33.9% | +18.8% | +6.5% | +5.4% |
| Net income | 349.0 m | 385.0 m | -260.0 m | 266.0 m | 375.0 m | 750.0 m | 628.0 m | 758.0 m |
| Net income YoY | −34.6% | +10.3% | −167.5% | unavailable | +41.0% | +100.0% | −16.3% | +20.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.82 | 2.09 | -1.43 | 1.45 | 2.06 | 4.41 | 3.85 | 4.87 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −34.0% | +15.1% | −168.3% | unavailable | +42.5% | +114.2% | −12.7% | +26.3% |
| net % | 8.0% | 8.3% | -10.9% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 16.2% | 12.8% | 14.6% |
| Free cash flow | 663.0 m | 578.0 m | 111.0 m | 619.0 m | 592.0 m | 865.0 m | 695.0 m | 870.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.1 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 4.2 bn USD
- Net debt
- 3.1 bn USD
- Equity
- -2.7 bn USD
- Total assets
- 5.3 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.98x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 15.0%
- FCF margin
- 16.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.4 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 354.0 m | 486.0 m | 648.0 m | 742.0 m | 745.0 m | 764.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 2.0 bn ≈ | 2.4 bn ≈ | 3.2 bn ≈ | 3.9 bn ≈ | 4.2 bn ≈ | 4.4 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Operating income | -153.0 m | 494.0 m | 628.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 110.0 m | 98.0 m | 68.0 m | 67.0 m | 65.0 m | 67.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -43.0 m ≈ | 592.0 m ≈ | 696.0 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 144.0 m | 147.0 m | 118.0 m | 126.0 m | 178.0 m | 202.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -280.0 m | 361.0 m | 540.0 m | 1.0 bn | 897.0 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -20.0 m | 96.0 m | 164.0 m | 260.0 m | 269.0 m | 315.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -260.0 m | 266.0 m | 375.0 m | 750.0 m | 628.0 m | 758.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -1.43 | 1.45 | 2.06 | 4.41 | 3.85 | 4.87 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 182.0 m | 184.0 m | 182.0 m | 170.0 m | 163.0 m | 155.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.30 | 1.43 | 1.57 | 1.73 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn | 976.0 m | 1.3 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 514.0 m | 574.0 m | 646.0 m | 740.0 m | 785.0 m | 833.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 5.0 m | 4.0 m | 4.0 m | 5.0 m | 4.0 m | 5.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 2.2 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 201.0 m | 137.0 m | 157.0 m | 153.0 m | 146.0 m | 148.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | 341.0 m | 335.0 m | 336.0 m | 331.0 m | 335.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 5.0 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.7 bn | 5.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 466.0 m | 579.0 m | 697.0 m | 711.0 m | 650.0 m | 676.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 869.0 m | 292.0 m | 55.0 m | 599.0 m | 398.0 m | 478.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 2.9 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.9 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 6.9 bn | 6.2 bn | 5.8 bn | 6.8 bn | 7.1 bn | 8.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | -1.8 bn | -1.5 bn | -1.6 bn | -1.9 bn | -2.3 bn | -2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 187.7 m | 187.7 m | 183.1 m | 172.3 m | 164.7 m | 164.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 137.0 m | 636.0 m | 646.0 m | 893.0 m | 724.0 m | 898.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 26.0 m | 17.0 m | 54.0 m | 28.0 m | 29.0 m | 28.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 111.0 m ≈ | 619.0 m ≈ | 592.0 m ≈ | 865.0 m ≈ | 695.0 m ≈ | 870.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -61.0 m | -12.0 m | -78.0 m | -137.0 m | -99.0 m | -190.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 1.4 bn | -860.0 m | -961.0 m | -417.0 m | -894.0 m | -614.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | — | — | 233.0 m | 245.0 m | 259.0 m | 270.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | 482.0 m | 790.0 m | 804.0 m | 897.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 62 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 29.0 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet55
- Growth92
- Quality92
- Returns75
- Valuation32
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 22.73 – 191.89 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)80.28 – 139.22 (Mid 102.62)WACC 8.7% · starting FCFF 1.0 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 75%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 33.2%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA27.97 – 99.97 (Mid 59.43)14 companies used · median multiple 10.2x · quartiles 6.1x – 15.4xBYD, CHH, CNTY, CZR, FLL, HLT, LVS, MGM, MLCO, PK, TNL, WH, WYNN, XHR
- Peers: P/E89.45 – 191.89 (Mid 135.81)14 companies used · median multiple 27.9x · quartiles 18.4x – 39.4xATAT, BYD, CHH, HLT, LVS, MAR, MCRI, MGM, MLCO, RRR, SHO, TNL, WH, WYNN
- Dividend discount (DDM)22.73 – 30.57 (Mid 26.08)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 62/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 14.6% | 84 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 114.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 10.1% | 84 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 33.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 2.4x | 63 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 5.9x | 68 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 15 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 36.2x | 41 (vs peers) | 12% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 25.3x | 19 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 3.0% | 38 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.0% | 58 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 31.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet55/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth92/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality92/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns75/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation32/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 5.2 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 5.4%; net margin 14.6%; net debt/EBITDA 2.4x.
The estimated value range is 54.13–119.59 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 81.02 USD, the price of 176.00 USD leaves a potential of -54.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -117.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 62/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 14.6%
- FCF conversion: 114.8%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 10.1%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 33.2%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 31.0%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 1.0x
- EV/EBITDA: 25.3x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC.
Versus the vertical median
Hotels & Motels (SIC 7011) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 26 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HTHTH World Group Ltd | 154.3 bn | 218.4 | 41.5% | 20.1% | +10.5% | +9% / +37% |
| MARMarriott International Inc | 109.4 bn | 42.4 | — | 9.7% | +4.3% | +39% / +110% |
| HLTHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | 83.8 bn | 50.8 | — | 13.4% | +7.7% | +32% / +125% |
| IHGInterContinental Hotels Group PLC | 29.0 bn | 36.2 | — | 14.6% | +5.4% | +44% / +143% |
| LVSLas Vegas Sands Corp. | 25.5 bn | 16.7 | 262.8% | 11.8% | +15.2% | −40% / −12% |
| ATATAtour Lifestyle Holdings Limited | 14.5 bn | 63.7 | 50.5% | 16.6% | +41.0% | −9% / +97% |
| WYNNWynn Resorts, Limited | 8.5 bn | 19.7 | — | 6.1% | +0.1% | −36% / −2% |
| MGMMGM Resorts International | 8.3 bn | 12.7 | 26.8% | 3.9% | +1.7% | −7% / −17% |
| CZRCaesars Entertainment, Inc. | 6.0 bn | — | -15.1% | -4.5% | +2.1% | +26% / −34% |
| WHWyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 5.9 bn | 29.8 | 38.2% | 14.0% | +1.5% | +10% / +4% |
| MLCOMelco Resorts & Entertainment Limited | 5.7 bn | 30.6 | — | 3.6% | +11.3% | −48% / −33% |
| BYDBoyd Gaming Corp | 5.5 bn | 11.7 | 19.6% | 12.3% | +4.1% | −7% / +32% |
| CHHChoice Hotels International Inc | 5.4 bn | 26.7 | 146.5% | 12.7% | +0.8% | +32% / +9% |
| TNLTravel & Leisure Co. | 4.7 bn | 20.7 | — | 5.7% | +4.1% | +13% / +118% |
| PKPark Hotels & Resorts Inc. | 3.4 bn | — | -5.0% | -6.4% | −2.2% | +57% / +14% |
| SHOSunstone Hotel Investors, Inc. | 2.4 bn | 54.7 | 2.8% | 5.3% | +6.0% | +39% / +32% |
| PENNPenn Entertainment, Inc. | 2.3 bn | — | -37.4% | -12.7% | +5.8% | +18% / −29% |
| XHRXenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 2.0 bn | 628.9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | +3.8% | +57% / +79% |
| MCRIMonarch Casino & Resort, Inc. | 2.0 bn | 17.9 | 20.4% | 20.4% | +4.4% | +17% / +80% |
| BALYBally’s Corporation | 680.3 m | — | — | — | +0.1% | −23% / unavailable |
| FLLFull House Resorts Inc | 29.1 m | — | -936.4% | -12.1% | +3.5% | −70% / −84% |
| CNTYCentury Casinos, Inc. | 16.9 m | — | — | -9.6% | −0.5% | −61% / −86% |
| RRRRed Rock Resorts, Inc. | — | 29.1 | 60.8% | 5.8% | +3.7% | −17% / +9% |
| MSCStudio City International Holdings Limited | — | — | -10.5% | -8.5% | +8.7% | −75% / −83% |
| HHyatt Hotels Corporation | — | 98.6 | 5.6% | 2.6% | +6.8% | +16% / +66% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for IHG from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 103.91 Total return -40% · Per year -40% | 183.24 Total return 5% · Per year 5% | 275.37 Total return 58% · Per year 58% |
| 3 years | 112.43 Total return -34% · Per year -13% | 221.97 Total return 30% · Per year 9% | 364.57 Total return 111% · Per year 28% |
| 5 years | 121.66 Total return -27% · Per year -6% | 268.88 Total return 59% · Per year 10% | 482.66 Total return 183% · Per year 23% |
- Exit P/E± 55.49
- Net margin± 38.84
- Annual revenue growth± 30.27
- Annual dilution± 3.26
AI analysis
The qualitative analysis has not been written for this company yet.
Products, market & competition
The qualitative analysis has not been written for this company yet.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG): AI Search Functions Improve Visibility and Customer ReachYahoo Finance — News · 24 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 24 Aug 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 02 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)22 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)16 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)16 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)01 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)18 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)18 Sept 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.