olivLaw · US equity research
Red Rock Resorts, Inc. RRR
Hotels & Motels · SIC 7011 · Vertical: Hotels & Motels (SIC 7011)
Red Rock Resorts, Inc. is a holding company that owns an indirect interest in and manages Station Casinos LLC, an operator of casinos and entertainment facilities concentrated in the Las Vegas valley, where customers are mainly local residents. Net revenues reached 2011.5 million USD in fiscal 2025, but in the second quarter of 2026 revenues and adjusted EBITDA declined, which makes the trend in local demand an important point to watch.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Red Rock Resorts, Inc. (RRR) stock was 48.66 USD (−5.31% on the day), with P/E 29.1 on diluted EPS of 1.67 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 6.17%, beta 0.97, 52-week range 48.42–67.26 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 488.7 m USD (+2.8% YoY), net income of -9.9 m USD (−123.5% YoY), diluted EPS -0.17 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 42.6
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 48.31 – 51.51
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.11 · band width 6.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 51.96 / 57.89
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.60 / -0.82
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −4.7% | −1.1% | −3.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −20.2% | −0.5% | −19.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | −8.1% | +4.4% | −12.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | −21.5% | +12.3% | −33.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | −10.0% | +13.5% | −23.5 pp | +9.5% |
| 3 years | +15.4% | +76.4% | −61.0 pp | +9.1% |
| 5 years | −2.6% | +63.7% | −66.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 495.7 m | 497.9 m | 526.3 m | 475.6 m | 511.8 m | 507.3 m | 510.3 m | 488.7 m |
| SG&A | 107.1 m | 104.7 m | 112.0 m | 112.9 m | 111.7 m | 114.4 m | 117.9 m | 146.2 m |
| Operating income | 142.3 m | 154.4 m | 168.0 m | 131.5 m | 143.6 m | 143.7 m | 136.0 m | 26.7 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 48.2 m | 48.3 m | 48.0 m | 49.0 m | 52.1 m | 55.9 m | 59.0 m | 62.7 m |
| Interest expense | 56.2 m | 51.1 m | 50.6 m | 50.5 m | 49.6 m | 49.5 m | 49.6 m | 50.9 m |
| Pre-tax income | 98.5 m | 98.8 m | 124.2 m | 83.5 m | 95.9 m | 95.8 m | 90.1 m | -19.0 m |
| Income tax | 10.8 m | 12.8 m | 15.9 m | 6.6 m | 11.3 m | 13.1 m | 13.5 m | -1.2 m |
| Net income | 46.6 m | 44.7 m | 56.4 m | 42.3 m | 44.7 m | 42.9 m | 39.1 m | -9.9 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.45 ≈ | 0.75 | 0.95 | 0.68 | 0.44 ≈ | 0.73 | 0.67 | -0.17 |
| Operating cash flow | 148.2 m | 126.2 m | 158.4 m ≈ | 168.3 m ≈ | 156.6 m | 139.8 m | 157.9 m ≈ | 131.4 m ≈ |
| Capex | 26.9 m | 68.2 m | 78.2 m ≈ | 93.7 m ≈ | 78.9 m | 117.2 m | 139.8 m ≈ | 199.1 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 14.8 m | 16.0 m | 74.5 m ≈ | 14.9 m ≈ | 15.4 m | 75.3 m | 15.3 m ≈ | 15.2 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 30.9 m ≈ | 0 ≈ | 48.2 m | 38.3 m | 0 ≈ | 26.7 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 76 percentile of its own 33-quarter history (min 3.6, median 21.0, max 78.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +2.4% | +10.4% | −36.3% | +36.8% | +2.8% | +3.6% | +12.5% | +3.7% |
| Net income | 157.5 m | -3.4 m | -150.4 m | 241.9 m | 205.5 m | 176.0 m | 154.1 m | 188.1 m |
| Net income YoY | +344.7% | −102.1% | unavailable | unavailable | −15.0% | −14.3% | −12.5% | +22.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.77 | -0.05 | -2.13 | 2.84 | 3.36 | 2.94 | 2.53 | 3.12 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +321.4% | −102.8% | unavailable | unavailable | +18.3% | −12.5% | −13.9% | +23.3% |
| net % | 9.4% | -0.2% | -12.7% | 14.9% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 9.3% |
| Free cash flow | -233.3 m | -36.6 m | 154.3 m | 548.7 m | 213.6 m | -205.2 m | 264.4 m | 290.5 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 142.5 m USD
- Financial debt
- 3.4 bn USD
- Net debt
- 3.3 bn USD
- Equity
- 332.3 m USD
- Total assets
- 4.2 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 10.22x
- Current ratio
- 0.79x
- ROE
- 58.9%
- ROA
- 4.6%
- FCF margin
- 14.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 324.6 m | 347.1 m | 353.0 m | 374.5 m | 432.3 m | 441.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 88.6 m | 401.5 m | 561.3 m | 558.7 m | 568.7 m | 597.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 231.4 m | 157.8 m | 128.4 m | 132.5 m | 187.1 m | 197.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 320.0 m ≈ | 559.3 m ≈ | 689.7 m ≈ | 691.2 m ≈ | 755.8 m ≈ | 794.8 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 128.5 m | 103.2 m | 129.9 m | 181.0 m | 228.8 m | 201.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -60.5 m | 285.5 m | 434.9 m | 380.8 m | 328.2 m | 402.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 114.1 m | -69.3 m | 44.5 m | 43.0 m | 36.9 m | 46.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -150.4 m | 241.9 m | 205.5 m | 176.0 m | 154.1 m | 188.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -2.13 | 2.84 | 3.36 | 2.94 | 2.53 | 3.12 | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 70.5 m | 116.5 m | 104.7 m | 103.2 m | 103.7 m | 102.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.10 | 3.00 | 3.00 | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Feb 2024verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 121.2 m | 275.3 m | 117.3 m | 137.6 m | 164.4 m | 142.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 13.1 m | 11.7 m | 13.2 m | 15.3 m | 16.4 m | 17.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 224.7 m | 378.5 m | 221.0 m | 282.3 m | 295.4 m | 286.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 195.7 m | 195.7 m | 195.7 m | 195.7 m | 195.7 m | 195.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 100.8 m | 87.2 m | 84.4 m | 82.8 m | 81.2 m | 80.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 3.7 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.3 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 11.2 m | 17.5 m | 11.4 m | 25.4 m | 31.8 m | 21.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 22.8 m | 25.9 m | 26.1 m | 26.1 m | 52.9 m | 17.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 2.9 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 200.3 m | 204.8 m | 293.2 m | 349.2 m | 325.2 m | 363.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 3.1 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 604.6 m | 50.0 m | 32.2 m | 243.9 m | 306.8 m | 332.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 212.8 m | 610.0 m | 542.2 m | 494.3 m | 548.3 m | 609.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 58.5 m | 61.3 m | 328.6 m | 699.5 m | 283.9 m | 319.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 154.3 m ≈ | 548.7 m ≈ | 213.6 m ≈ | -205.2 m ≈ | 264.4 m ≈ | 290.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -69.6 m | 586.3 m | -442.1 m | -653.9 m | -321.8 m | -245.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -150.4 m | -1.0 bn | -290.0 m | 179.8 m | -199.7 m | -385.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 7.3 m | 203.8 m | 116.7 m | 58.6 m | 118.4 m | 120.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 500.2 m | 141.5 m | 0 | 3.9 m | 79.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 30 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score < 40
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation59
- Returns0
- Quality36
- Balance sheet17
- Growth27
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 30.70 – 68.18 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E30.70 – 68.18 (Mid 47.16)14 companies used · median multiple 28.2x · quartiles 18.4x – 40.8xATAT, BYD, CHH, HLT, IHG, LVS, MAR, MCRI, MGM, MLCO, SHO, TNL, WH, WYNN
- Dividend discount (DDM)39.42 – 53.02 (Mid 45.22)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 30/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 10.4% | 36 (vs peers) | 14% |
| Net margin · Quality | 5.8% | 52 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 43.5% | 19 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 6.5% | 54 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -2.4% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 5.3x | 26 (vs peers) | 14% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.3x | 12 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 4 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 29.1x | 59 (vs peers) | 14% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 238.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet17/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth27/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality36/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial59/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
RED ROCK RESORTS, INC. (RRR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.0 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 3.7%; net margin 5.8%; ROE 60.8%; net debt/EBITDA 5.3x.
The estimated value range is 35.06–60.60 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 46.19 USD, the price of 48.66 USD leaves a potential of -5.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -5.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 30/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns, valuation. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: 43.5%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -2.4%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 5.3x
- Interest coverage: 2.3x
- Current ratio: 0.8x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 238.8%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Hotels & Motels (SIC 7011) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 26 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HTHTH World Group Ltd | 154.3 bn | 218.4 | 41.5% | 20.1% | +10.5% | +9% / +37% |
| MARMarriott International Inc | 109.4 bn | 42.4 | — | 9.7% | +4.3% | +39% / +110% |
| HLTHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | 83.8 bn | 50.8 | — | 13.4% | +7.7% | +32% / +125% |
| IHGInterContinental Hotels Group PLC | 29.0 bn | 36.2 | — | 14.6% | +5.4% | +31% / +124% |
| LVSLas Vegas Sands Corp. | 25.5 bn | 16.7 | 262.8% | 11.8% | +15.2% | −40% / −12% |
| ATATAtour Lifestyle Holdings Limited | 14.5 bn | 63.7 | 50.5% | 16.6% | +41.0% | −9% / +97% |
| WYNNWynn Resorts, Limited | 8.5 bn | 19.7 | — | 6.1% | +0.1% | −36% / −2% |
| MGMMGM Resorts International | 8.3 bn | 12.7 | 26.8% | 3.9% | +1.7% | −7% / −17% |
| CZRCaesars Entertainment, Inc. | 6.0 bn | — | -15.1% | -4.5% | +2.1% | +26% / −34% |
| WHWyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 5.9 bn | 29.8 | 38.2% | 14.0% | +1.5% | +10% / +4% |
| MLCOMelco Resorts & Entertainment Limited | 5.7 bn | 30.6 | — | 3.6% | +11.3% | −48% / −33% |
| BYDBoyd Gaming Corp | 5.5 bn | 11.7 | 19.6% | 12.3% | +4.1% | −7% / +32% |
| CHHChoice Hotels International Inc | 5.4 bn | 26.7 | 146.5% | 12.7% | +0.8% | +32% / +9% |
| TNLTravel & Leisure Co. | 4.7 bn | 20.7 | — | 5.7% | +4.1% | +13% / +118% |
| PKPark Hotels & Resorts Inc. | 3.4 bn | — | -5.0% | -6.4% | −2.2% | +57% / +14% |
| SHOSunstone Hotel Investors, Inc. | 2.4 bn | 54.7 | 2.8% | 5.3% | +6.0% | +39% / +32% |
| PENNPenn Entertainment, Inc. | 2.3 bn | — | -37.4% | -12.7% | +5.8% | +18% / −29% |
| XHRXenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 2.0 bn | 628.9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | +3.8% | +57% / +79% |
| MCRIMonarch Casino & Resort, Inc. | 2.0 bn | 17.9 | 20.4% | 20.4% | +4.4% | +17% / +80% |
| BALYBally’s Corporation | 680.3 m | — | — | — | +0.1% | −23% / unavailable |
| FLLFull House Resorts Inc | 29.1 m | — | -936.4% | -12.1% | +3.5% | −70% / −84% |
| CNTYCentury Casinos, Inc. | 16.9 m | — | — | -9.6% | −0.5% | −61% / −86% |
| MRNOMurano Global Investments Plc | — | — | -54.7% | -488.8% | +154.6% | −88% / −98% |
| HHyatt Hotels Corporation | — | 98.6 | 5.6% | 2.6% | +6.8% | +16% / +66% |
| GHGGreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. | — | — | 11.2% | 15.2% | −14.7% | −50% / −74% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for RRR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 07 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
Red Rock Resorts, Inc. is a holding company that owns an indirect interest in and manages Station Casinos LLC, an operator of casinos and entertainment facilities concentrated in the Las Vegas valley, where customers are mainly local residents. Net revenues reached 2011.5 million USD in fiscal 2025, but in the second quarter of 2026 revenues and adjusted EBITDA declined, which makes the trend in local demand an important point to watch.13
SWOT
Strengths
- The company operates a well-positioned network of properties in Las Vegas and has a loyal customer base supported by an extensive loyalty program.
- A cost structure with low variable costs helps turn additional revenue into adjusted profit.
- Most properties are master-planned for expansion, allowing capacity to grow incrementally.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on the Las Vegas market exposes the company to greater economic and regulatory risks than a diversified operator faces.
- Significant debt and capital-intensive operations limit financial flexibility in periods of falling revenue.
- Room revenue and Native American activities declined in 2026, showing the vulnerability of some segments.
Opportunities
- Development of the Durango project and other Las Vegas valley projects could generate additional revenue.
- Services provided to tribes can bring development fees and management income without major direct investment.
- Continued population growth in the region could support long-term demand for the company's properties.
Threats
- Inflationary pressure and high interest rates can reduce customers' discretionary spending.
- Competition from online gaming, other states and tribal casinos could erode market share.
- Cost overruns and delays in construction projects could affect operating results.
Risks
- Geographic concentrationhigh
If the Las Vegas economy or regional population declines, the company's revenue could be directly affected, since it has no operations in other areas.
- Indebtedness and interest costshigh
A substantial part of the debt carries variable interest, so higher rates could raise interest costs and reduce available cash flow.
- Dependence on discretionary spendingmedium
A drop in consumer confidence or disposable income could reduce visit frequency and casino spending.
- Construction delaysmedium
Budget overruns or delays in expansion projects could weaken the return on the investments made.
- Dependence on key personnellow
Loss of senior management or difficulty attracting qualified staff could complicate operations and growth.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Local demand remains resilient, with loyal customers and a growing population, and the cost structure lets additional revenue convert efficiently into adjusted profit.
- Expansion projects and services to tribes could add growth without relying solely on the current market.
- Lower interest costs seen in 2025 and distributions to shareholders could support cash flows if these conditions persist.
What would break the thesis
- Revenue and adjusted profit declined in the second quarter of 2026, which could signal a weakening in local demand.
- Significant debt and variable interest rates could limit financial flexibility if rates rise again.
- Competition from online gaming and other states could gradually reduce the market share of Las Vegas casinos.
What to watch
- Trend in Las Vegas revenue and adjusted profitQ3 2026
- Progress of the Durango expansion and the North Fork project2027
- Level of interest costs and refinancing of the debtnext 10-K
- Trend in revenue from Native American activitiesQ1 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 07 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
Red Rock Resorts holds an indirect economic interest in Station Casinos LLC, through which it conducts all of its operations; the company has no activities outside managing Station Holdco and Station LLC.1 Its main revenue source is gaming, especially slot play, which generates about 80% of casino revenue.1 The operator runs seven major gaming and entertainment facilities and 16 smaller gaming properties, three of which are 50% owned.12
The strategy relies on attracting and retaining customers, mainly Las Vegas residents, through promotional programs, marketing based on its customer database and a value-oriented offering. The company also aims to maximize profitability through cost control, supported by a cost structure with low variable costs.1 Its Native American activities, in which Red Rock provides development and management services to tribes, complement the core business, and the North Fork project has been under construction since September 2024.1
The business is capital intensive, and the company relies on operating cash flow from its properties to repay debt and fund investments.1 Revenue is mostly cash-based, so any change in demand has a direct effect on cash flow.1
Segments
Las Vegas operations
Las Vegas operations form the main reportable segment and include all casino properties in the region, which offer similar products and serve the same customer base.1 In 2025 casino revenues grew 5.0%, while room revenues fell 5.2% amid renovations at Green Valley Ranch.1
Native American activities
This segment covers development and management services provided to tribes; for the North Fork project the company is entitled to a development fee of 4% of construction costs.1 Revenue from these activities fell sharply in the second quarter of 2026, showing the segment's dependence on project timing.3
Development and expansion
The company has started expansion work at Durango and intends to develop other projects in the Las Vegas valley, which could add capacity but also raise costs and the risk of delays.1
Market context
The reference market is the Las Vegas regional market, where population grew 1.6% in 2025 and the unemployment rate stood at 5.2% in June 2026.12 The median price of an existing single-family home rose 1.0% in June 2026, which suggests some stabilization of local conditions, although uncertainty around inflation and interest rates remains.2
Trends
- Population growth in Las Vegastailwind
The region's population continues to grow, which supports demand for local gaming and possible expansions, but the company acknowledges that the historic pace may not continue.1
- Sensitivity to discretionary spendingheadwind
Inflationary pressure and high interest rates could reduce customers' spending on entertainment, while labor and food costs have risen.1
- Lower interest coststailwind
Interest expense fell in 2025 on lower rates and borrowings, which could support margins if these conditions hold.1
- Growing online gaming and legalizationheadwind
Expansion of online gaming and sports betting in other states could erode the market share of local casinos.1
Competitive position
The company's casinos compete with other casinos and hotels in the Las Vegas metropolitan area, as well as with smaller locations that have no gaming restrictions or mainly target local and repeat visitors.1 Competition also comes from other parts of Nevada, online gaming, lotteries and casinos on tribal land.1
- Other Las Vegas casinos and hotels
Direct competitors for customers in the metropolitan area, including large hotel casinos and smaller gaming-focused locations.
- Casinos in other US states
Indirect competition from other US gaming markets, which expands as legalization spreads.
- Casinos on Native American land
Competition that has grown, particularly in California, where facilities can draw customers from the same area.
- Online gaming and sports betting platforms
Competition that could reduce casino visit frequency, particularly among younger customers.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Profits Slide At Red Rock Resorts (RRR) Even As Dividends HoldYahoo Finance — News · 05 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 05 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report03 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 Oct 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 Aug 2026
- Current report04 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report12 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report08 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report29 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement23 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Red Rock Resorts, Inc. · 20 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Red Rock Resorts, Inc. · 07 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Red Rock Resorts, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.