olivLaw · European equity research
ACINQUE S.p.A. AC5.MI
Italy · Euronext Milan · ISIN IT0001382024 · Vertical: Listed companies from Italy
ACINQUE S.p.A. is the holding of a multi-business group in Lombardy that runs gas and electricity distribution, the integrated water cycle, district heating and energy sales to private customers. Its relevance now lies in Middle East tensions, energy price volatility and a new legal framework, as described in the 2025 annual report.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, ACINQUE S.p.A. (AC5.MI) stock was 2.08 EUR (+0.00% on the day), with market capitalisation 408.7 m EUR, P/E 19.4 on diluted EPS of 0.11 EUR over the last 12 months, beta 0.25, 52-week range 2.02–2.34 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 50.9
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.99 – 2.13
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.63 · band width 6.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 2.08 / 2.18
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.01 / 0.00
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +3.0% | +0.4% | +2.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −1.0% | −3.3% | +2.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | −2.8% | +4.0% | −6.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −8.0% | +8.1% | −16.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | −8.8% | +10.7% | −19.5 pp | −5.6% |
| 3 years | +13.7% | +50.1% | −36.4 pp | +9.9% |
| 5 years | −16.1% | +43.6% | −59.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 18.7, median 21.1, max 37.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 650.3 m | 589.3 m | 590.6 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −9.4% | +0.2% |
| Net income | 10.7 m | 21.1 m | 21.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +96.6% | −0.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +97.4% | −0.1% |
| net % | 1.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| Free cash flow | 34.0 m | 190.1 m | 49.9 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 72.6 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 26.0 k EUR
- Net debt
- -72.5 m EUR
- Equity
- 523.9 m EUR
- Total assets
- 1.0 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.00x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 4.0%
- ROA
- 2.1%
- FCF margin
- 8.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 650.3 m | 589.3 m | 590.6 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 28.0 m | 46.0 m | 38.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 18.0 m | 33.4 m | 34.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 6.8 m | 11.9 m | 12.7 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 10.7 m | 21.1 m | 21.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.11 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 45.4 m | 99.8 m | 72.6 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 10.5 m | 10.5 m | 9.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 190.5 m | 215.2 m | 201.6 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 65.5 m | 77.7 m | 79.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 355.4 m | 379.7 m | 391.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 26.0 k | 26.0 k | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 145.4 m | 221.3 m | — | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Equity | 522.7 m | 522.3 m | 523.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 197.2 m | 196.5 m | 196.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 58.3 m | 217.5 m | 75.7 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 24.3 m | 27.4 m | 25.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 34.0 m ≈ | 190.1 m ≈ | 49.9 m ≈ | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -57.7 m | -96.8 m | -71.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 27.3 m | -67.0 m | -31.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | 2.7 m | 0 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 408.7 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
48% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.68 – 3.01 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E0.68 – 3.01 (Mid 1.42)20 companies used · median multiple 13.3x · quartiles 6.3x – 28.1xACE.MI, ADB.MI, AEF.MI, AMP.MI, ARN.MI, ASC.MI, BC.MI, BEC.MI, CAI.MI, CIR.MI, CLF.MI, CMB.MI, COM.MI, CRL.MI, CY4.MI, DEX.MI, DIA.MI, DLG.MI, DNR.MI, ELN.MI
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 4.3% | 38 (vs peers) | 22% |
| Net margin · Quality | 3.6% | 33 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 237.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 19.4x | 41 (vs peers) | 22% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 12.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality54/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation67/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ACINQUE S.P.A. (AC5.MI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 590.6 m EUR in 2025; YoY growth 0.2%; net margin 3.6%; ROE 4.1%.
The estimated value range is 0.68–3.01 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 1.42 EUR, the price of 2.08 EUR leaves a potential of -31.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -46.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 237.0%
- FCF yield: 12.2%
What contradicts it
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Italy · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLG.MIDe' Longhi S.p.a. | 6.7 bn | 21.3 | 15.4% | 8.4% | +8.7% | +22% / +58% |
| ACE.MIAcea S.p.a. | 4.6 bn | 9.6 | 18.2% | 16.6% | +0.2% | −4% / +72% |
| DIA.MIDiasorin S.p.a. | 4.4 bn | 28.8 | 9.2% | 13.0% | +0.8% | +33% / −5% |
| CRL.MICarel Industries S.p.a. | 3.0 bn | 40.9 | 16.1% | 11.7% | +8.7% | +7% / +14% |
| AMP.MIAmplifon S.p.a. | 2.6 bn | 29.1 | 8.5% | 3.8% | −0.6% | −11% / −59% |
| ELN.MIEl.en. - S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 31.4 | 10.9% | 7.3% | +4.2% | +31% / +79% |
| CMB.MICembre S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 27.9 | 20.6% | 18.9% | +6.7% | +15% / +114% |
| COM.MIComer Industries S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 19.1 | 12.8% | 7.1% | −23.0% | +11% / +68% |
| DNR.MIIndustrie De Nora S.p.a. | 1.1 bn | 13.7 | 8.6% | 9.4% | +1.4% | −21% / −61% |
| ARN.MIAlerion Clean Power S.p.a. In Forma Abbreviata Alerion S.p.a. | 986.3 m | 10.6 | 23.5% | 41.0% | +1.8% | −3% / −22% |
| AVIO.MIAvio S.p.a. | 909.3 m | 89.4 | 2.1% | 1.8% | +21.5% | +22% / +302% |
| CIR.MICir S.p.a. - Compagnie Industriali Riunite | 799.2 m | 6.1 | 17.1% | 7.3% | +1.6% | +6% / +75% |
| ASC.MIAscopiave S.p.a. | 639.9 m | 17.9 | 4.2% | 17.5% | +13.4% | −9% / +31% |
| AC5.MIAcinque S.p.a. | 408.7 m | 19.4 | 4.1% | 3.6% | +0.2% | −7% / +7% |
| BAN.MIBasic Net S.p.a. | 345.1 m | — | -4.9% | -3.5% | +0.4% | −31% / +4% |
| ADB.MIAeroporto Guglielmo Marconi Di Bologna S.p.a. | 319.0 m | 12.8 | 11.1% | 13.7% | +9.2% | −3% / +10% |
| CAI.MICairo Communication S.p.a. | 290.6 m | 6.4 | 8.1% | 4.4% | −1.3% | −22% / +29% |
| ECNL.MIAquafil S.p.a. | 130.1 m | — | -3.2% | -0.9% | −3.9% | −1% / −52% |
| BEC.MIB&C Speakers S.p.a. | 119.8 m | 11.8 | 18.5% | 10.2% | −1.3% | −25% / −31% |
| ABT.MIAbitare In S.p.a. | 76.3 m | 277.0 | 0.4% | 0.4% | +39.8% | −6% / −47% |
| ELC.MIElica S.p.a. | 64.0 m | — | -7.8% | -2.2% | +1.9% | −34% / −49% |
| DEX.MIDexelance S.p.a. | 50.7 m | 2.8 | 11.0% | 5.4% | +12.6% | −63% / −78% |
| CLE.MIClass Editori S.p.a. | 34.4 m | — | -29.2% | -3.8% | −0.7% | −11% / +102% |
| AEF.MIAeffe S.p.a. | 11.7 m | 0.6 | 21.9% | 7.7% | −21.3% | −52% / −84% |
| CLF.MICaleffi - S.p.a. | 11.6 m | 5.2 | 10.9% | 3.8% | −2.5% | −4% / −10% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AC5.MI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 1.18 Total return -43% · Per year -43% | 2.08 Total return 0% · Per year 0% | 3.15 Total return 51% · Per year 51% |
| 3 years | 1.05 Total return -50% · Per year -20% | 2.09 Total return 1% · Per year 0% | 3.48 Total return 67% · Per year 19% |
| 5 years | 0.93 Total return -55% · Per year -15% | 2.10 Total return 1% · Per year 0% | 3.86 Total return 85% · Per year 13% |
- Exit P/E± 0.52
- Net margin± 0.37
- Annual revenue growth± 0.31
- Annual dilution± 0.03
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
ACINQUE S.p.A. is the holding of a multi-business group in Lombardy that runs gas and electricity distribution, the integrated water cycle, district heating and energy sales to private customers. Its relevance now lies in Middle East tensions, energy price volatility and a new legal framework, as described in the 2025 annual report 1.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Energy price volatilityhigh
Significant or unexpected changes in energy prices and emission allowance prices can reduce the Group's operating margins 1.
- Gas concession tendershigh
Losing some distribution concessions in the local tenders could affect activity and financial position 1.
- Regulatory and legal frameworkmedium
Legislative changes, such as the « DL Bollette » decree or the possible inclusion of waste incinerators in the ETS, may change revenue and costs 1.
- Cyber and IT risksmedium
Cyber threats and inadequate IT systems may cause service interruptions or data losses 1.
- Physical climate risksmedium
Prolonged droughts and temperatures above plan assumptions may reduce drinking water and gas deliveries 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Regulated services and diversified activities can offer a fairly stable revenue profile if the tariff framework stays predictable 1.
- Planned investment in the energy transition and circular economy could open new sources of growth 1.
- The safeguarded status in the water cycle gives a long management horizon in certain areas without a tender 1.
What would break the thesis
- Results could be hit if the Group loses significant concessions in the local tenders 1.
- Energy price volatility, amplified by geopolitical tensions, could squeeze margins in the sales business 1.
- Covenant clauses in some financing contracts can create the risk of early repayment under certain conditions 1.
What to watch
- Outcome of the ATEM tenders for gas distribution concessions2027
- Parliamentary approval of the « DL Bollette » decree and any amendments2026
- Application of the ARERA tariff method for district heating after 20252026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The Acinque Group operates as a multi-business group, with activities in natural gas distribution, electricity distribution, the integrated water cycle and district heating, as well as energy and services sales to private clients 1. Its market consists mainly of private customers, and according to the report its credit risk is fragmented and historically low 1. The sales company Acinque Energia is part of this commercial chain 1.
The Group also includes a shared services company, A2A Service Real Estate, operational since 1 October 2023, which handles collection and credit management for group companies other than the sales companies 1.
Segments
Gas and electricity distribution
The Group holds a portfolio of natural gas distribution concessions, currently under technical prorogation until the local tenders (ATEM) are completed 1. The activity is regulated by ARERA and yields predictable revenue, though dependent on the outcome of future tenders 1.
Market context
The Group operates in the energy and public utility services market of northern Italy, where the Italian economy continued to grow moderately in 2025, supported by renewed investment and a recovery in industry 1. The report nonetheless flags uncertainty linked to geopolitical tensions and higher tariffs imposed by the US administration 1.
The energy market is influenced by gas and electricity prices, which can affect operating margins and consumption 1. The regulatory framework is changing: the « DL Bollette » decree of February 2026 contains cost-reduction measures that could affect the Group if confirmed in Parliament 1.
Trends
- Escalation of Middle East tensionsmixed
According to the report, prices of key energy commodities rose in the first days of March 2026, and the increase could lead to higher inflation and tensions in financial markets 1. The effect on the Group depends on sale prices and supply costs 1.
- ARERA regulation and the « DL Bollette » decreemixed
The extension of ARERA powers to district heating and waste cycles, together with the February 2026 decree, changes the tariff and tax framework, with possible effects on revenue and costs 1. The impact depends on parliamentary approval and later amendments 1.
- Gas distribution tendersheadwind
Running the local ATEM tenders could lead to losing some concessions or winning others on different terms, although the compensation mechanism for the outgoing operator limits the loss 1. The pace of the tenders has been described as slowing 1.
- Digitalisation and cyber securitymixed
Rising cyber threats and the EU NIS 2 directive require investment in security and modern IT systems, which can raise costs but reduce the risk of service interruptions 1. The Group has also introduced a control framework for artificial intelligence systems 1.
Competitive position
The report mentions competitors that could hinder the achievement of some plan objectives, especially in the free market segment 1. No specific competitors are named in the available sources, and competition in concession tenders is a declared risk factor 1.
- Other operators in distribution concessions and the free market
The report refers in general to competitors that could hinder development objectives, without naming them 1.
- Bidders in the ATEM local tenders
New operators could win concessions in tenders, a point the report presents as a risk for the Group 1.
- Free-market energy suppliers
Competition in the free electricity and gas market is cited as a factor that may affect customer base growth targets 1.
- District heating operators
District heating concessions will be reassigned through public tenders, bringing in new competitors 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202507 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / ACINQUE S.p.A. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.