olivLaw · European equity research
Alerion Clean Power S.p.A. ARN.MI
Italy · Euronext Milan · ISIN IT0004720733 · Vertical: Listed companies from Italy
Alerion Clean Power produces energy from wind and solar sources in a heavily regulated sector. The company matters now because it is refinancing its capital structure, and its 2025 balance sheet shows a negative net financial position while recent bond issues show access to capital markets.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Alerion Clean Power S.p.A. (ARN.MI) stock was 18.08 EUR (−1.74% on the day), with market capitalisation 969.2 m EUR, P/E 10.4 on diluted EPS of 1.74 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.40%, beta 0.30, 52-week range 15.80–28.20 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 57.3
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 15.65 – 18.17
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.97 · band width 14.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 17.86 / 20.60
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.02 / -0.24
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +1.7% | +0.4% | +1.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −12.4% | −3.3% | −9.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −31.1% | +4.0% | −35.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | −2.0% | +8.1% | −10.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | −8.8% | +10.7% | −19.5 pp | −6.1% |
| 3 years | −22.7% | +50.1% | −72.8 pp | +10.1% |
| 5 years | −27.5% | +43.6% | −71.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 8.9, median 10.6, max 21.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 163.9 m | 223.5 m | 227.6 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +36.3% | +1.8% |
| Net income | 66.8 m | 95.8 m | 93.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +43.3% | −2.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.24 | 1.79 | 1.74 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +44.4% | −2.8% |
| net % | 40.8% | 42.9% | 41.0% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 344.0 m EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 432.6 m EUR
- Total assets
- 1.7 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 2.80x
- ROE
- 23.2%
- ROA
- 5.6%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 163.9 m | 223.5 m | 227.6 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 75.8 m | 135.5 m | 127.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 51.4 m | 53.3 m | 53.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 127.2 m ≈ | 188.7 m ≈ | 180.6 m ≈ | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 28.7 m | 40.9 m | 35.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 82.5 m | 111.1 m | 104.7 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 14.5 m | 14.8 m | 10.7 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 66.8 m | 95.8 m | 93.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.24 | 1.79 | 1.74 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.61 | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 343.2 m | 515.9 m | 344.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 10.6 m | 17.4 m | 18.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 493.1 m | 692.1 m | 532.7 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 591.8 m | 590.3 m | 695.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 265.0 m | 266.1 m | 288.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.4 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 181.6 m | 366.9 m | 190.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 326.7 m | 372.7 m | 432.6 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 53.9 m | 53.5 m | 53.6 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 86.2 m | 59.0 m | 70.4 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Investing cash flow | -93.6 m | -70.1 m | -81.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 124.0 m | 183.8 m | -161.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 36.1 m | 33.3 m | 32.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 7.8 m | 4.3 m | 0 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 969.2 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
33% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 8.35 – 47.40 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E10.94 – 47.40 (Mid 27.39)20 companies used · median multiple 15.7x · quartiles 6.3x – 27.2xAC5.MI, ACE.MI, ADB.MI, AEF.MI, AMP.MI, ASC.MI, BC.MI, BEC.MI, CAI.MI, CIR.MI, CLF.MI, CMB.MI, COM.MI, CRL.MI, CY4.MI, DEX.MI, DIA.MI, DLG.MI, DNR.MI, ELN.MI
- Dividend discount (DDM)8.35 – 11.39 (Mid 9.64)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 41.0% | 95 (vs peers) | 19% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.6x | 33 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.8x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 10.4x | 68 (vs peers) | 31% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.4% | 49 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet60/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial95/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial49/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial68/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ALERION CLEAN POWER S.P.A. IN FORMA ABBREVIATA ALERION S.P.A. (ARN.MI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 227.6 m EUR in 2025; YoY growth 1.8%; net margin 41.0%; ROE 23.5%.
The estimated value range is 9.65–29.39 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 18.51 EUR, the price of 18.08 EUR leaves a potential of 2.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 2.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 41.0%
- Current ratio: 2.8x
What contradicts it
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Italy · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLG.MIDe' Longhi S.p.a. | 6.8 bn | 21.5 | 15.4% | 8.4% | +8.7% | +24% / +60% |
| ACE.MIAcea S.p.a. | 4.6 bn | 9.6 | 18.2% | 16.6% | +0.2% | −4% / +73% |
| DIA.MIDiasorin S.p.a. | 4.3 bn | 28.3 | 9.2% | 13.0% | +0.8% | +31% / −7% |
| CRL.MICarel Industries S.p.a. | 2.9 bn | 39.5 | 16.1% | 11.7% | +8.7% | +3% / +10% |
| AMP.MIAmplifon S.p.a. | 2.7 bn | 29.9 | 8.5% | 3.8% | −0.6% | −9% / −58% |
| ELN.MIEl.en. - S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 30.3 | 10.9% | 7.3% | +4.2% | +26% / +73% |
| CMB.MICembre S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 27.0 | 20.6% | 18.9% | +6.7% | +11% / +108% |
| COM.MIComer Industries S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 18.6 | 12.8% | 7.1% | −23.0% | +8% / +64% |
| DNR.MIIndustrie De Nora S.p.a. | 1.1 bn | 13.4 | 8.6% | 9.4% | +1.4% | −22% / −62% |
| ARN.MIAlerion Clean Power S.p.a. In Forma Abbreviata Alerion S.p.a. | 969.2 m | 10.4 | 23.5% | 41.0% | +1.8% | −5% / −23% |
| AVIO.MIAvio S.p.a. | 883.6 m | 86.8 | 2.1% | 1.8% | +21.5% | +18% / +291% |
| CIR.MICir S.p.a. - Compagnie Industriali Riunite | 783.3 m | 6.0 | 17.1% | 7.3% | +1.6% | +4% / +72% |
| ASC.MIAscopiave S.p.a. | 646.3 m | 18.0 | 4.2% | 17.5% | +13.4% | −8% / +33% |
| AC5.MIAcinque S.p.a. | 412.6 m | 19.6 | 4.1% | 3.6% | +0.2% | −6% / +8% |
| BAN.MIBasic Net S.p.a. | 348.0 m | — | -4.9% | -3.5% | +0.4% | −30% / +5% |
| ADB.MIAeroporto Guglielmo Marconi Di Bologna S.p.a. | 324.7 m | 13.1 | 11.1% | 13.7% | +9.2% | −2% / +12% |
| CAI.MICairo Communication S.p.a. | 289.2 m | 6.4 | 8.1% | 4.4% | −1.3% | −22% / +28% |
| ECNL.MIAquafil S.p.a. | 129.6 m | — | -3.2% | -0.9% | −3.9% | −1% / −52% |
| BEC.MIB&C Speakers S.p.a. | 118.7 m | 11.7 | 18.5% | 10.2% | −1.3% | −26% / −32% |
| ABT.MIAbitare In S.p.a. | 76.0 m | 276.0 | 0.4% | 0.4% | +39.8% | −6% / −47% |
| ELC.MIElica S.p.a. | 64.3 m | — | -7.8% | -2.2% | +1.9% | −34% / −48% |
| DEX.MIDexelance S.p.a. | 50.7 m | 2.8 | 11.0% | 5.4% | +12.6% | −63% / −78% |
| CLE.MIClass Editori S.p.a. | 35.1 m | — | -29.2% | -3.8% | −0.7% | −9% / +106% |
| CLF.MICaleffi - S.p.a. | 11.6 m | 5.2 | 10.9% | 3.8% | −2.5% | −4% / −10% |
| AEF.MIAeffe S.p.a. | 10.1 m | 0.5 | 21.9% | 7.7% | −21.3% | −59% / −86% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ARN.MI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 10.40 Total return -40% · Per year -40% | 18.41 Total return 5% · Per year 5% | 27.77 Total return 58% · Per year 58% |
| 3 years | 9.56 Total return -40% · Per year -15% | 19.09 Total return 16% · Per year 5% | 31.69 Total return 89% · Per year 24% |
| 5 years | 8.79 Total return -39% · Per year -10% | 19.80 Total return 27% · Per year 5% | 36.17 Total return 124% · Per year 17% |
- Exit P/E± 4.77
- Net margin± 3.34
- Annual revenue growth± 2.81
- Annual dilution± 0.28
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Alerion Clean Power produces energy from wind and solar sources in a heavily regulated sector. The company matters now because it is refinancing its capital structure, and its 2025 balance sheet shows a negative net financial position while recent bond issues show access to capital markets.
SWOT
Strengths
- A balance sheet with diversified financing that combines project financing with green bonds and fixed-rate debt.
- Business focused on renewable energy, a sector with long-term European support.
- Experience with green bond issues, which has allowed it to raise capital on international markets.
Weaknesses
- A high level of financial debt that imposes significant interest costs and limits flexibility.
- Dependence on climate conditions, which can cause output to vary from one year to the next.
- Exposure to cross default clauses in some project financing contracts, which can make debt quickly due.
Opportunities
- Rising European renewable targets could open new projects and long-term sales contracts.
- Growth in green finance could reduce the cost of capital for future investment.
- Geographic and technological diversification could reduce risk tied to a single resource or market.
Threats
- Regulatory changes and new taxes on energy producers could reduce revenue.
- Refinancing difficulties could prevent completion of planned investments.
- A possible failure by trading companies to pay could create liquidity problems.
Risks
- Regulation and taxationhigh
Legislative changes or new taxes on energy could affect results and compliance costs, and inconsistent interpretation by authorities can lead to litigation.
- Cyclicality of productionmedium
Wind output depends on the wind, so periods of weak wind could reduce delivered volumes and revenue in the short term.
- Debt and refinancinghigh
A high debt level could make it hard to meet financial obligations or refinance on time, especially if incentive tariffs change.
- Counterparty riskmedium
If trading companies pay late, the group could face a liquidity squeeze, and replacing these contracts could prove difficult.
- Climate risklow
Climate change could reduce available resources and raise maintenance and insurance costs against weather events.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If European renewable targets are transposed quickly, the portfolio could benefit from demand and new contracts.
- The ability to issue green and fixed-rate bonds could keep access to funding even in volatile periods.
- A growing equity base could provide a firmer foundation for future investment.
What would break the thesis
- If financial debt stays high, interest costs could limit profitability and the capacity to invest.
- If wind stays weak over a long period, revenue could fall below expectations.
- If regulation tightens again, compensation mechanisms could reduce producer margins.
What to watch
- Evolution of the net financial position and debt after the February 2026 issue2026
- Wind and photovoltaic output results compared with prior yearsnext 10-K
- Evolution of the tax framework and incentive tariffs in Italy2027
- Collection of receivables from trading companiesQ1 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The Alerion group produces electricity from renewable sources, mainly wind farms, with some photovoltaic plants. Energy is sold through annual bilateral contracts to trading companies that place it on the energy market. According to the annual report for fiscal 2025, the company's net equity was 448.3 million euro 1, and a positive net result of 153.2 million euro 1 was influenced by the dividend distributed and movements in treasury shares 1.
Segments
Wind energy
Wind farms are the core of the business, and output depends on the climate at each site. The report warns that periods of weak wind can reduce volumes and create short-term effects on the economic situation 1.
Photovoltaic energy
Photovoltaic plants diversify the group's production sources, reducing reliance on a single resource. The report cites source diversification as a tool for managing climate risk 1.
Market context
The energy market in Italy and other European countries where the group has assets is shaped by regulation on incentive tariffs and price compensation mechanisms. For 2025 the FIP incentive tariff was set at 55.34 EUR/MWh 1, calculated from the previous year's average sale price. Europe's 2030 renewable targets have been raised, which can support long-term demand 1.
Trends
- European renewable targetstailwind
Raising the EU renewable target for 2030 could support demand for new projects if the directives are transposed into national law.
- Price compensation mechanismsheadwind
Measures such as two-way compensation or revenue caps reduced producer income during the energy crisis and could return if prices rise again.
- Financing costsmixed
Lower interest rates reduced cost volatility, and the use of swaps and fixed-rate bonds protected the group; a new rise in rates could however affect future projects.
- Institutional interest in green energytailwind
The focus of European policy on sustainable finance could ease access to green funding, such as the green bonds Alerion has used since 2019 1.
Competitive position
Competition comes from other wind and solar producers in Italy, Spain and Romania, where the group has projects. Differentiation depends on the cost of capital, access to sales contracts and the ability to secure new sites.
- European wind and solar operators
European companies active in the same technologies, competing for sites and energy sale contracts.
- Integrated renewable producers
Groups with multiple assets that can negotiate more favourable financing and sales terms.
- Energy infrastructure investors
Funds that buy existing wind farms and compete for projects with stable returns.
- Local renewable project developers
Smaller companies competing for permits and smaller-scale projects.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202507 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Alerion Clean Power S.p.A. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.