olivLaw · European equity research
Aeroporto Guglielmo Marconi di Bologna S.p.A. ADB.MI
Italy · Euronext Milan · ISIN IT0001006128 · Vertical: Listed companies from Italy
Aeroporto Guglielmo Marconi di Bologna runs the Bologna airport under a concession and earns revenue from aeronautical and non-aeronautical services. Passenger traffic grew in 2025 and early 2026, while the company operates amid geopolitical uncertainty and changing European rules. Parent-company revenue reached 173.1 million EUR and profit was 23.5 million EUR.
At the close of 03 Nov 2026, Aeroporto Guglielmo Marconi di Bologna S.p.A. (ADB.MI) stock was 8.86 EUR (−0.45% on the day), with market capitalisation 319.0 m EUR, P/E 12.8 on diluted EPS of 0.69 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 5.33%, beta 0.36, 52-week range 8.60–11.95 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 43.9
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 8.66 – 9.28
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.32 · band width 6.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 9.27 / 9.75
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.14 / -0.14
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −4.3% | −1.0% | −3.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −12.7% | −3.9% | −8.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | −2.0% | +7.2% | −9.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | −11.8% | +6.6% | −18.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | −3.7% | +9.1% | −12.8 pp | −7.1% |
| 3 years | +9.4% | +47.9% | −38.6 pp | +6.7% |
| 5 years | −9.2% | +43.3% | −52.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 10.9, median 14.6, max 18.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 145.1 m | 166.1 m | 181.4 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +14.5% | +9.2% |
| Net income | 16.7 m | 24.4 m | 24.8 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +46.3% | +1.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.46 | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +47.8% | +1.5% |
| net % | 11.5% | 14.7% | 13.7% |
| Free cash flow | 32.5 m | 44.0 m | 24.0 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 81.2 m EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 228.7 m EUR
- Total assets
- 448.7 m EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.08x
- ROE
- 11.1%
- ROA
- 6.1%
- FCF margin
- 13.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 145.1 m | 166.1 m | 181.4 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 25.8 m | 34.9 m | 34.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 11.7 m | 13.0 m | 14.7 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 37.5 m ≈ | 47.9 m ≈ | 48.9 m ≈ | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 3.2 m | 2.4 m | 2.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 23.4 m | 34.3 m | 34.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 6.7 m | 9.9 m | 9.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 16.7 m | 24.4 m | 24.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.46 | 0.68 | 0.69 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.47 | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 44.3 m | 41.1 m | 81.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 878.0 k | 812.0 k | 865.0 k | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 76.2 m | 66.4 m | 109.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 11.0 m | 13.1 m | 17.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 226.2 m | 256.7 m | 286.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 335.3 m | 362.2 m | 448.7 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 88.1 m | 98.1 m | 101.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 129.3 m | 141.3 m | 220.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 206.0 m | 220.9 m | 228.7 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 36.3 m | 35.9 m | 36.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 34.8 m | 49.4 m | 30.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 2.3 m | 5.4 m | 6.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 32.5 m ≈ | 44.0 m ≈ | 24.0 m ≈ | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 11.2 m | -40.3 m | -43.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -29.6 m | -12.4 m | 53.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 0 | 9.5 m | 17.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
03 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 319.0 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
52% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 4.25 – 19.42 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E4.25 – 19.42 (Mid 10.78)20 companies used · median multiple 15.6x · quartiles 6.2x – 28.1xAC5.MI, ACE.MI, AEF.MI, AMP.MI, ARN.MI, ASC.MI, BC.MI, BEC.MI, CAI.MI, CIR.MI, CLF.MI, CMB.MI, COM.MI, CRL.MI, CY4.MI, DEX.MI, DIA.MI, DLG.MI, DNR.MI, ELN.MI
- Dividend discount (DDM)6.43 – 8.76 (Mid 7.42)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 13.7% | 77 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 96.6% | 95 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 13.4x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.1x | 23 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 12.8x | 59 (vs peers) | 20% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 7.5% | 94 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 5.3% | 76 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 70.9% | 70 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet69/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality86/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns74/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation75/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
AEROPORTO GUGLIELMO MARCONI DI BOLOGNA S.P.A. (ADB.MI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 181.4 m EUR in 2025; YoY growth 9.2%; net margin 13.7%; ROE 11.1%.
The estimated value range is 5.34–14.09 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 9.10 EUR, the price of 8.86 EUR leaves a potential of 2.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 2.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 13.7%
- FCF conversion: 96.6%
- Interest coverage: 13.4x
- FCF yield: 7.5%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.3%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 70.9%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 1.1x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Italy · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLG.MIDe' Longhi S.p.a. | 6.6 bn | 20.8 | 15.4% | 8.4% | +8.7% | +20% / +55% |
| ACE.MIAcea S.p.a. | 4.5 bn | 9.4 | 18.2% | 16.6% | +0.2% | −6% / +69% |
| DIA.MIDiasorin S.p.a. | 4.3 bn | 28.2 | 9.2% | 13.0% | +0.8% | +30% / −8% |
| CRL.MICarel Industries S.p.a. | 3.1 bn | 42.2 | 16.1% | 11.7% | +8.7% | +10% / +18% |
| AMP.MIAmplifon S.p.a. | 2.6 bn | 29.1 | 8.5% | 3.8% | −0.6% | −11% / −59% |
| CMB.MICembre S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 28.1 | 20.6% | 18.9% | +6.7% | +16% / +116% |
| ELN.MIEl.en. - S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 30.8 | 10.9% | 7.3% | +4.2% | +28% / +76% |
| COM.MIComer Industries S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 19.4 | 12.8% | 7.1% | −23.0% | +12% / +70% |
| DNR.MIIndustrie De Nora S.p.a. | 1.1 bn | 13.5 | 8.6% | 9.4% | +1.4% | −22% / −61% |
| AVIO.MIAvio S.p.a. | 971.3 m | 95.4 | 2.1% | 1.8% | +21.5% | +30% / +330% |
| ARN.MIAlerion Clean Power S.p.a. In Forma Abbreviata Alerion S.p.a. | 938.1 m | 10.1 | 23.5% | 41.0% | +1.8% | −8% / −26% |
| CIR.MICir S.p.a. - Compagnie Industriali Riunite | 793.9 m | 6.0 | 17.1% | 7.3% | +1.6% | +5% / +74% |
| ASC.MIAscopiave S.p.a. | 634.5 m | 17.7 | 4.2% | 17.5% | +13.4% | −10% / +30% |
| AC5.MIAcinque S.p.a. | 408.7 m | 19.4 | 4.1% | 3.6% | +0.2% | −7% / +7% |
| BAN.MIBasic Net S.p.a. | 348.0 m | — | -4.9% | -3.5% | +0.4% | −30% / +5% |
| ADB.MIAeroporto Guglielmo Marconi Di Bologna S.p.a. | 319.0 m | 12.8 | 11.1% | 13.7% | +9.2% | −3% / +10% |
| CAI.MICairo Communication S.p.a. | 280.5 m | 6.2 | 8.1% | 4.4% | −1.3% | −25% / +24% |
| ECNL.MIAquafil S.p.a. | 127.7 m | — | -3.2% | -0.9% | −3.9% | −2% / −53% |
| BEC.MIB&C Speakers S.p.a. | 118.7 m | 11.7 | 18.5% | 10.2% | −1.3% | −26% / −32% |
| ABT.MIAbitare In S.p.a. | 76.3 m | 277.0 | 0.4% | 0.4% | +39.8% | −6% / −47% |
| ELC.MIElica S.p.a. | 64.0 m | — | -7.8% | -2.2% | +1.9% | −34% / −49% |
| DEX.MIDexelance S.p.a. | 50.4 m | 2.8 | 11.0% | 5.4% | +12.6% | −63% / −78% |
| CLE.MIClass Editori S.p.a. | 34.4 m | — | -29.2% | -3.8% | −0.7% | −11% / +102% |
| AEF.MIAeffe S.p.a. | 11.8 m | 0.6 | 21.9% | 7.7% | −21.3% | −52% / −84% |
| CLF.MICaleffi - S.p.a. | 11.7 m | 5.2 | 10.9% | 3.8% | −2.5% | −4% / −10% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ADB.MI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 5.49 Total return -34% · Per year -34% | 9.68 Total return 15% · Per year 15% | 14.55 Total return 71% · Per year 71% |
| 3 years | 5.85 Total return -20% · Per year -7% | 11.55 Total return 50% · Per year 14% | 18.99 Total return 139% · Per year 34% |
| 5 years | 6.23 Total return -6% · Per year -1% | 13.79 Total return 91% · Per year 14% | 24.79 Total return 226% · Per year 27% |
- Exit P/E± 2.89
- Net margin± 2.02
- Annual revenue growth± 1.59
- Annual dilution± 0.17
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Aeroporto Guglielmo Marconi di Bologna runs the Bologna airport under a concession and earns revenue from aeronautical and non-aeronautical services. Passenger traffic grew in 2025 and early 2026, while the company operates amid geopolitical uncertainty and changing European rules. Parent-company revenue reached 173.1 million EUR 1 and profit was 23.5 million EUR 1.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
- Dependence on one operator, which accounts for a very large share of passengers, exposes the company to the risk of that operator cutting activity 1.
- Non-aeronautical revenue growth is slower than traffic growth, suggesting a shrinking margin on this component 1.
- Financial debt rose sharply within a year, reducing financial flexibility 1.
Opportunities
- Developing new routes and international traffic could support revenue growth over the long term 1.
- The new investment plan and possibly the 2027-2030 regulatory cycle could open room for modernising infrastructure 1.
- Commercial activities could be expanded to raise non-aeronautical revenue if traffic keeps growing 1.
Threats
- The departure or reduced activity of the dominant operator could seriously affect the company's results 1.
- Geopolitical conflicts and trade tariffs could reduce demand for air transport and consumer confidence 1.
- Litigation over the decree returning ENAV facilities and tax disputes could create additional obligations 1.
Risks
- Dependence on Ryanairhigh
Ryanair accounts for a very large share of traffic, and a reduction in its activity could have a significant impact on results 1.
- Incentives for operatorsmedium
The incentive system may reduce margin if traffic with lower rates grows faster than traffic with better margins 1.
- Delivery of the Intervention Planmedium
Delays in investments or rising material costs could limit airport capacity and the applicable tariffs 1.
- Litigation over ENAV facilitiesmedium
The decree returning AVL installations creates maintenance costs and tariff issues, and the company has filed an appeal 1.
- Geopolitical and trade uncertaintymedium
Conflicts in some regions and trade tariffs could reduce traffic and non-aeronautical revenue 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
What to watch
- Evolution of passenger traffic and Ryanair's share2026
- Effects of removing the municipal surcharge on regional routes2026
- Outcome of litigation over the ENAV decree and tax disputes2026
- Approval of the 2027-2030 regulatory cycle and investment plan2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The AdB group manages the Guglielmo Marconi airport in Bologna under special exclusive rights over the airport site, operated under a concession 1. Revenue comes from airport charges (aeronautical services), commercial and service activities in the airport (non-aeronautical services), and construction services linked to investments. In 2025 parent-company revenue rose 9.9% versus 2024 to 173.1 million EUR, while gross operating margin was roughly stable at 52.2 million EUR 1.
The parent company's financial structure changed in 2025: total financial debt reached 36.5 million EUR, against 3.8 million EUR at the end of the prior year, with a rise in long-term financial debt 1. Net equity grew to 217.7 million EUR, supported by the year's profit. The company finances its investment plan from own resources, already available EIB financing and new financing 1.
The activity is subject to a strict regulatory framework, with tariffs set by the civil aviation authority ENAC and an investment plan approved for 2023-2026 1. The airport has coordinated status, so timely completion of investments is essential for traffic growth.
Segments
Construction services
Construction services revenue, linked to infrastructure investment, rose 29% in 2025 to 46.0 million EUR, but the related margin stays small, in the range of a few million 1. This segment reflects the pace of the Intervention Plan.
Market context
Traffic growth from 2025 continued in the first months of 2026, according to the annual report 1. However, developments depend on the economic climate and conflicts in some regions, which could reduce demand for air transport.
Trends
- Passenger traffic growthtailwind
Traffic grew in 2025 and held up in the first months of 2026, supporting aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenue 1. If the trend is confirmed, revenue could keep growing.
- New European border control system (EES)mixed
The Entry/Exit System went live in October 2025 and reaches full operation in April 2026, with electronic registration of non-EU passengers 1. The company invested in new equipment, but slower border processes may affect passenger flows.
- Sustainability rules and sustainable aviation fuelmixed
The European Commission's Omnibus package reduces reporting obligations, but the group remains in the first CSRD wave. A new Italian decree from December 2025 sets sanctions for airport managers that do not facilitate access to sustainable aviation fuel 1.
- Geopolitical tensions and tradeheadwind
Conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, along with trade tariffs, could reduce traffic and consumer confidence. The company reports that effects have so far been limited, but uncertainty remains high 1.
Competitive position
Bologna airport competes with regional airports such as Rimini, Forlì and Parma, which from 2026 benefit from the removal of the municipal boarding surcharge, financed by the Emilia-Romagna Region 1. This could redirect some flights, especially Ryanair's.
Competition also comes from other transport modes on some routes, per the report 1. The incentive system for airlines is also a competitive factor, as it attracts operators who may quickly change their routes.
- Rimini, Forlì and Parma airports
Regional airports that from 2026 no longer pay the municipal boarding surcharge, which could make them more attractive to operators.
- Other northern Italian airports
Airports in the region compete for the same routes and operators, and competitive pressure may grow in the low-cost segment.
- Rail and road transport
On some short routes, other transport modes may replace flights, according to the risk description in the annual report.
- Low-cost operators receiving incentives
Companies receiving incentives for new routes affect the airport's margin, and moving operations to other airports is a risk noted in the report.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202507 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Aeroporto Guglielmo Marconi di Bologna S.p.A. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.