olivLaw · European equity research
CAREL INDUSTRIES S.P.A. CRL.MI
Italy · Euronext Milan · ISIN IT0005331019 · Vertical: Listed companies from Italy
CAREL INDUSTRIES is an Italian group that designs and manufactures electronic control systems for the HVAC/R industry, with a focus on energy efficiency and low-impact refrigerants. Its innovation and sustainability strategy matters now as European customers and regulation push for more energy-efficient solutions.
At the close of 03 Nov 2026, CAREL INDUSTRIES S.P.A. (CRL.MI) stock was 27.40 EUR (+0.55% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.1 bn EUR, P/E 42.2 on diluted EPS of 0.65 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 602.19%, beta 1.01, 52-week range 20.10–32.70 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 52.3
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 25.17 – 28.59
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.65 · band width 12.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 27.21 / 26.37
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.06 / -0.18
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −4.0% | −1.0% | −3.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | −3.2% | −3.9% | +0.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +0.6% | +7.2% | −6.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +11.6% | +6.6% | +5.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +22.0% | +9.1% | +13.0 pp | −7.1% |
| 3 years | +33.1% | +47.9% | −14.8 pp | +6.7% |
| 5 years | +9.2% | +43.3% | −34.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 33.1, median 35.4, max 37.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 650.2 m | 578.5 m | 629.0 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −11.0% | +8.7% |
| Net income | 70.9 m | 62.6 m | 73.6 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −11.7% | +17.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.70 | 0.56 | 0.65 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −20.0% | +16.1% |
| net % | 10.9% | 10.8% | 11.7% |
| Free cash flow | 81.1 m | 63.9 m | 106.6 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 121.9 m EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 482.9 m EUR
- Total assets
- 868.0 m EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.08x
- ROE
- 15.9%
- ROA
- 8.6%
- FCF margin
- 16.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 650.2 m | 578.5 m | 629.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Research & development | -2.3 m | -5.6 m | -4.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 104.4 m | 66.5 m | 82.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 32.8 m | 38.3 m | 42.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 137.2 m ≈ | 104.9 m ≈ | 124.1 m ≈ | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | 93.2 m | 79.7 m | 95.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 18.7 m | 16.5 m | 21.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 70.9 m | 62.6 m | 73.6 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.70 | 0.56 | 0.65 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 19.00 | 165.00 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 154.0 m | 99.1 m | 121.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 111.7 m | 94.2 m | 88.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 22.5 m | 17.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 117.5 m | 123.1 m | 114.7 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 920.4 m | 851.0 m | 868.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 234.5 m | 172.5 m | 213.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 396.2 m | 441.5 m | 482.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 101.3 m | 111.9 m | 113.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 102.0 m | 85.4 m | 120.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 20.9 m | 21.5 m | 13.6 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 81.1 m ≈ | 63.9 m ≈ | 106.6 m ≈ | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -197.0 m | -27.6 m | -40.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 153.5 m | -111.9 m | -53.7 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 1.0 m | 0 | 0 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
03 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 3.1 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
42% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 4.01 – 3,060.00 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E4.01 – 14.72 (Mid 8.58)20 companies used · median multiple 13.2x · quartiles 6.2x – 22.6xAC5.MI, ACE.MI, ADB.MI, AEF.MI, AMP.MI, ARN.MI, ASC.MI, BC.MI, BEC.MI, CAI.MI, CIR.MI, CLF.MI, CMB.MI, COM.MI, CY4.MI, DEX.MI, DIA.MI, DLG.MI, DNR.MI, ELN.MI
- Dividend discount (DDM)2,244.00 – 3,060.00 (Mid 2,589.23)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 11.7% | 72 (vs peers) | 15% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 144.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.1x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 42.2x | 9 (vs peers) | 25% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 3.4% | 43 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality86/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation24/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
CAREL INDUSTRIES S.P.A. (CRL.MI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 629.0 m EUR in 2025; YoY growth 8.7%; net margin 11.7%; ROE 16.1%.
The estimated value range is 1,124.00–1,537.36 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 1,298.90 EUR, the price of 27.40 EUR leaves a potential of 4,640.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 97.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 11.7%
- FCF conversion: 144.7%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.1x
- P/E (TTM): 42.2x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Italy · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLG.MIDe' Longhi S.p.a. | 6.6 bn | 20.8 | 15.4% | 8.4% | +8.7% | +20% / +55% |
| ACE.MIAcea S.p.a. | 4.5 bn | 9.4 | 18.2% | 16.6% | +0.2% | −6% / +69% |
| DIA.MIDiasorin S.p.a. | 4.3 bn | 28.2 | 9.2% | 13.0% | +0.8% | +30% / −8% |
| CRL.MICarel Industries S.p.a. | 3.1 bn | 42.2 | 16.1% | 11.7% | +8.7% | +10% / +18% |
| AMP.MIAmplifon S.p.a. | 2.6 bn | 29.1 | 8.5% | 3.8% | −0.6% | −11% / −59% |
| CMB.MICembre S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 28.1 | 20.6% | 18.9% | +6.7% | +16% / +116% |
| ELN.MIEl.en. - S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 30.8 | 10.9% | 7.3% | +4.2% | +28% / +76% |
| COM.MIComer Industries S.p.a. | 1.3 bn | 19.4 | 12.8% | 7.1% | −23.0% | +12% / +70% |
| DNR.MIIndustrie De Nora S.p.a. | 1.1 bn | 13.5 | 8.6% | 9.4% | +1.4% | −22% / −61% |
| AVIO.MIAvio S.p.a. | 971.3 m | 95.4 | 2.1% | 1.8% | +21.5% | +30% / +330% |
| ARN.MIAlerion Clean Power S.p.a. In Forma Abbreviata Alerion S.p.a. | 938.1 m | 10.1 | 23.5% | 41.0% | +1.8% | −8% / −26% |
| CIR.MICir S.p.a. - Compagnie Industriali Riunite | 793.9 m | 6.0 | 17.1% | 7.3% | +1.6% | +5% / +74% |
| ASC.MIAscopiave S.p.a. | 634.5 m | 17.7 | 4.2% | 17.5% | +13.4% | −10% / +30% |
| AC5.MIAcinque S.p.a. | 408.7 m | 19.4 | 4.1% | 3.6% | +0.2% | −7% / +7% |
| BAN.MIBasic Net S.p.a. | 348.0 m | — | -4.9% | -3.5% | +0.4% | −30% / +5% |
| ADB.MIAeroporto Guglielmo Marconi Di Bologna S.p.a. | 319.0 m | 12.8 | 11.1% | 13.7% | +9.2% | −3% / +10% |
| CAI.MICairo Communication S.p.a. | 280.5 m | 6.2 | 8.1% | 4.4% | −1.3% | −25% / +24% |
| ECNL.MIAquafil S.p.a. | 127.7 m | — | -3.2% | -0.9% | −3.9% | −2% / −53% |
| BEC.MIB&C Speakers S.p.a. | 118.7 m | 11.7 | 18.5% | 10.2% | −1.3% | −26% / −32% |
| ABT.MIAbitare In S.p.a. | 76.3 m | 277.0 | 0.4% | 0.4% | +39.8% | −6% / −47% |
| ELC.MIElica S.p.a. | 64.0 m | — | -7.8% | -2.2% | +1.9% | −34% / −49% |
| DEX.MIDexelance S.p.a. | 50.4 m | 2.8 | 11.0% | 5.4% | +12.6% | −63% / −78% |
| CLE.MIClass Editori S.p.a. | 34.4 m | — | -29.2% | -3.8% | −0.7% | −11% / +102% |
| AEF.MIAeffe S.p.a. | 11.8 m | 0.6 | 21.9% | 7.7% | −21.3% | −52% / −84% |
| CLF.MICaleffi - S.p.a. | 11.7 m | 5.2 | 10.9% | 3.8% | −2.5% | −4% / −10% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CRL.MI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 16.88 Total return -36% · Per year -36% | 29.79 Total return 11% · Per year 11% | 44.79 Total return 67% · Per year 67% |
| 3 years | 17.81 Total return -29% · Per year -11% | 35.22 Total return 37% · Per year 11% | 57.94 Total return 122% · Per year 30% |
| 5 years | 18.78 Total return -21% · Per year -5% | 41.63 Total return 67% · Per year 11% | 74.94 Total return 194% · Per year 24% |
- Exit P/E± 8.80
- Net margin± 6.16
- Annual revenue growth± 4.86
- Annual dilution± 0.52
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
CAREL INDUSTRIES is an Italian group that designs and manufactures electronic control systems for the HVAC/R industry, with a focus on energy efficiency and low-impact refrigerants. Its innovation and sustainability strategy matters now as European customers and regulation push for more energy-efficient solutions 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has a consolidated innovation strategy and a leadership position in the HVAC/R niche, supported by research and development 1.
- A portfolio oriented to energy efficiency matches customers' sustainability priorities 1.
- The company has a multi-year sustainability plan with climate objectives approved by an international initiative 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Dependence on strategic suppliershigh
Interruption of supply of hard-to-replace components could affect production and deliveries 1.
- Regulatory changemedium
Changes to refrigerant or energy-efficiency rules could require costly product adaptations 1.
- Technological developmentmedium
A setback in developing new products or adopting natural refrigerants could reduce the competitive advantage 1.
- Talent attractionmedium
Difficulty attracting and keeping technical staff could slow innovation 1.
- Sustainability and reporting risklow
The ambitious decarbonisation targets require steady execution, and any deviation could draw investor attention 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for energy efficiency in buildings stays high, the smart product portfolio could support the group's growth 1.
- Experience with low-impact refrigerants could give an advantage in the sector's transition 1.
- A clearly defined sustainability and decarbonisation plan can strengthen confidence among customers and investors 1.
What would break the thesis
- Dependence on electronic component suppliers could generate costs or delays that are hard to offset 1.
- Rapid regulatory changes could require large investments and reduce revenue predictability 1.
- Competitive pressure could limit the ability to maintain margins if innovation does not provide enough differentiation 1.
What to watch
- Evolution of demand for high energy-efficiency products2026
- Progress in implementing the Climate Transition Plan2026
- Rollout of the new performance development process across the group2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The CAREL INDUSTRIES group builds its strategy on product and process innovation, which its consolidated annual report 2025 identifies as the main drivers of recent growth 1. The company focuses on increasingly smart and interconnected products that improve energy efficiency, along with the use of low-emission refrigerants and natural fluids 1. A third, growing objective is product circularity, through recycled materials and longer product life 1.
The group builds its strategy on product and process innovation, which its consolidated annual report 2025 identifies as the main drivers of recent growth 1. The company focuses on increasingly smart and interconnected products that improve energy efficiency, along with the use of low-emission refrigerants and natural fluids 1. A third, growing objective is product circularity, through recycled materials and longer product life 1.
Segments
Market context
The annual report indicates that in Europe a significant share of the energy consumed in buildings relates to the group's reference applications, which makes energy efficiency a central driver of demand 1. Traditional HFC refrigerants can have a greenhouse effect many times greater than carbon dioxide if released into the atmosphere, which supports demand for natural alternatives 1. The source gives only general sector trends, not quantified market data.
Trends
- Regulation and energy transitiontailwind
The European Union's decarbonisation goals and building energy efficiency policies could create demand for more efficient control systems, if these rules continue to be applied 1.
- Shift to natural refrigerantsmixed
Replacing HFCs with low-emission natural fluids may require technological adaptation, which could favour firms that have already developed solutions in this area 1.
- Product circularitymixed
Demand for repairability, recycling and recycled materials could become a selection criterion, affecting product design and costs 1.
- Dependence on electronic componentsheadwind
The cost and availability of upstream electronic components remain an important variable, which the group monitors through multi-sourcing strategies 1.
Competitive position
The analysed source does not identify the group's competitors in detail, but it stresses its leadership position in the HVAC/R market and its strategy of differentiation through innovation 1. Competition mainly develops on energy efficiency, connectivity and technologies for low-impact refrigerants 1.
- HVAC/R industry players
The source does not name specific competitors; comparisons require additional documents.
- Air-conditioning control system makers
Competition is on energy efficiency, connectivity and natural-refrigerant solutions, per the same report.
- Electronic component suppliers
Relevant as an upstream dependency rather than as direct rivals.
- Energy-efficiency solution providers for buildings
Compete indirectly for building modernisation budgets.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202507 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / CAREL INDUSTRIES S.P.A. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.