olivLaw · European equity research
AEDAS Homes, S.A. AEDAS.MC
Spain · BME Madrid · ISIN ES0105287009 · Vertical: Listed companies from Spain
AEDAS Homes is a Spanish residential property developer active mainly in Madrid and other regions of Spain, with a strong focus on industrialised and sustainable construction. In its latest fiscal year it delivered 1,359 homes fully or partly industrialised, roughly 53% of deliveries. This matters because its model combines cost efficiency with clear ESG targets.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, AEDAS Homes, S.A. (AEDAS.MC) stock was 23.75 EUR (−0.42% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.0 bn EUR, P/E 17.1 on diluted EPS of 1.39 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 13.14%, beta 0.22, 52-week range 21.00–24.05 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 67.3
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 21.30 – 23.90
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.94 · band width 11.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 22.24 / 22.92
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.32 / 0.14
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +3.0% | +0.4% | +2.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | +12.0% | −3.3% | +15.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | +3.0% | +4.0% | −0.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | −0.6% | +8.1% | −8.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +11.8% | +10.7% | +1.1 pp | +3.3% |
| 3 years | +42.4% | +50.1% | −7.7 pp | +24.0% |
| 5 years | −4.0% | +43.6% | −47.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 6.9, median 7.6, max 16.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 949.5 m | 1.2 bn | 868.8 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +21.7% | −24.8% |
| Net income | 108.9 m | 149.7 m | 60.9 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +37.5% | −59.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.53 | 3.47 | 1.39 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +37.2% | −59.9% |
| net % | 11.5% | 13.0% | 7.0% |
| Free cash flow | 343.1 m | 176.7 m | 76.6 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Mar 2026
- Cash
- 379.3 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 103.3 m EUR
- Net debt
- -276.0 m EUR
- Equity
- 892.0 m EUR
- Total assets
- 2.1 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.12x
- Current ratio
- 1.93x
- ROE
- 6.5%
- ROA
- 2.8%
- FCF margin
- 8.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 949.5 m | 1.2 bn | 868.8 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | — | 894.7 m | 635.5 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Gross profit | — | 261.2 m ≈ | 233.4 m ≈ | esef· 20 Oct 2026derived |
| Operating income | 0 | 206.7 m | 99.7 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 4.7 m | 5.2 m | 8.8 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 4.7 m ≈ | 211.8 m ≈ | 108.5 m ≈ | esef· 20 Oct 2026derived |
| Interest expense | — | 30.1 m | 24.1 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 146.9 m | 184.9 m | 85.8 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 37.9 m | 35.3 m | 25.0 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 108.9 m | 149.7 m | 60.9 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.53 | 3.47 | 1.39 | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 3.36 | 2.18 | 3.12 | esef· 20 Oct 2026derived |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 289.8 m | 344.0 m | 379.3 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | 140.6 m | 53.6 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 4.9 m | 6.2 m | 5.5 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 7.3 m | 2.7 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.1 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 52.5 m | 103.3 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 759.1 m | 911.5 m | 992.1 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 931.1 m | 986.9 m | 892.0 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 43.7 m | 43.6 m | 43.8 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 344.1 m | 191.3 m | 80.7 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.0 m | -14.6 m | 4.1 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 343.1 m ≈ | 176.7 m ≈ | 76.6 m ≈ | esef· 20 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -91.2 m | 57.9 m | -29.1 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -207.9 m | -79.2 m | -74.5 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 146.9 m | 95.3 m | 136.7 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 5.8 m | 202.0 k | — | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 70 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.0 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet81
- Valuation78
- Quality56
- Returns60
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 20.07 – 57.88 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)31.23 – 46.11 (Mid 36.84)WACC 8.1% · starting FCFF 93.7 m EUR · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -26.1%
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
- Peers: P/E20.07 – 33.42 (Mid 28.20)20 companies used · median multiple 20.3x · quartiles 14.4x – 24.0xACS.MC, ADX.MC, ADZ.MC, AENA.MC, AMS.MC, ANA.MC, CAF.MC, CLEO.MC, CMO.MC, DESA.MC, DIA.MC, EAT.MC, EBRO.MC, EDR.MC, ELE.MC, ENER.MC, ENO.MC, FAE.MC, FCC.MC, FDR.MC
- Dividend discount (DDM)42.45 – 57.88 (Mid 48.98)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Attractive profile · Score 70/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 10.8% | 29 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Net margin · Quality | 7.0% | 57 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 125.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -2.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 4.1x | 41 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.9x | 94 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 17.1x | 73 (vs peers) | 13% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 7.0x | 72 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 7.4% | 92 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 13.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 178.3% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet81/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality56/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns60/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation78/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
AEDAS HOMES SA (AEDAS.MC). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-03-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 868.8 m EUR in 2026; YoY growth -24.8%; net margin 7.0%; ROE 57.8%; net debt/EBITDA -2.5x.
The estimated value range is 31.23–46.11 EUR per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 36.84 EUR, the price of 23.75 EUR leaves a potential of 55.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 35.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 70/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 125.9%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -2.5x
- Current ratio: 1.9x
- P/E (TTM): 17.1x
- EV/EBITDA: 7.0x
- FCF yield: 7.4%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 13.2%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 10.8%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 178.3%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Spain · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELE.MCEndesa SA | 46.9 bn | 21.4 | 26.4% | 10.5% | +0.5% | +43% / +134% |
| AENA.MCAena S.m.e. SA | 42.4 bn | 19.8 | 24.2% | 34.0% | +8.9% | +20% / +78% |
| AMS.MCAmadeus It Group Sociedad Anonima | 26.2 bn | 19.8 | 26.9% | 20.5% | +6.1% | −6% / −5% |
| ACS.MCAcs Actividades De Construccion Y Servicios, S.A. | 22.6 bn | 23.7 | 19.9% | 1.9% | +19.7% | +10% / +142% |
| ANA.MCAcciona SA | 11.6 bn | 14.5 | 16.9% | 4.0% | +5.5% | +23% / +65% |
| FCC.MCFomento De Construcciones Y Contratas S.A. | 5.0 bn | 30.5 | 5.3% | 1.7% | +6.9% | −8% / −13% |
| FDR.MCFluidra S.A. | 3.8 bn | 21.4 | 10.9% | 7.8% | +4.1% | −17% / +5% |
| DIA.MCDistribuidora Internacional De Alimentacion SA | 2.7 bn | 20.7 | 165.6% | 2.2% | −2.7% | +52% / +383,650% |
| CMO.MCCementos Molins S.A. | 2.5 bn | 13.6 | 14.3% | 18.0% | −3.1% | +31% / unavailable |
| ENO.MCElecnor SA | 2.5 bn | 22.2 | 10.5% | 2.5% | +15.1% | −2% / +60% |
| ALM.MCAlmirall S.A. | 2.3 bn | 50.5 | 3.1% | 4.2% | +12.4% | −12% / +31% |
| FAE.MCFaes Farma SA | 1.5 bn | 19.3 | 10.8% | 13.0% | +23.7% | +3% / +57% |
| AEDAS.MCAedas Homes SA | 1.0 bn | 17.1 | 57.8% | 7.0% | −24.8% | +0% / +38% |
| EDR.MCEdreams Odigeo SA | 571.1 m | 11.4 | 21.0% | 7.8% | −0.4% | +40% / −24% |
| EAT.MCAmRest Holdings SE | 510.6 m | 31.7 | 4.3% | 0.6% | +0.1% | −34% / −61% |
| ADX.MCAudax Renovables S.A. | 489.0 m | 25.0 | 9.3% | 1.0% | −5.4% | −19% / −14% |
| ATRY.MCAtrys Health, S.A. | 199.3 m | — | -49.5% | -71.1% | +8.5% | −3% / −29% |
| ENER.MCEcoener, S.A. | 178.8 m | 32.8 | 4.2% | 6.4% | +3.6% | −32% / −4% |
| ADZ.MCAdolfo Dominguez SA | 62.4 m | 38.1 | 9.0% | 1.2% | +1.8% | +38% / +39% |
| DESA.MCDesarrollos Especiales De Sistemas De Anclaje S.A. | 49.6 m | 10.2 | 152.3% | 10.0% | +2.2% | +32% / unavailable |
| EZE.MCGrupo Ezentis SA | 30.0 m | — | — | -9.3% | +147.2% | −27% / −35% |
| CLEO.MCCompañia Levantina De Edificacion Y Obras Publicas SA | 17.3 m | 14.4 | 4.1% | 3.4% | +13.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AYC.MCAyco Grupo Inmobiliario, S.A. | 16.4 m | — | -33.8% | — | −100.0% | unavailable / unavailable |
| EBRO.MCEbro Foods, S.A. | 3.0 m | 0.0 | 10.0% | 7.7% | −4.0% | −0% / +19% |
| A3M.MCAtresmedia Corporacion De Medios De Comunicacion, S.A. | — | — | 7.9% | 6.9% | −2.7% | +12% / +59% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AEDAS.MC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 12.70 Total return -42% · Per year -42% | 22.56 Total return 1% · Per year 1% | 34.14 Total return 50% · Per year 50% |
| 3 years | 10.08 Total return -46% · Per year -19% | 20.36 Total return 2% · Per year 1% | 34.14 Total return 64% · Per year 18% |
| 5 years | 8.01 Total return -50% · Per year -13% | 18.38 Total return 3% · Per year 1% | 34.14 Total return 77% · Per year 12% |
- Exit P/E± 5.09
- Net margin± 3.56
- Annual revenue growth± 3.22
- Annual dilution± 0.30
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
AEDAS Homes is a Spanish residential property developer active mainly in Madrid and other regions of Spain, with a strong focus on industrialised and sustainable construction. In its latest fiscal year it delivered 1,359 homes fully or partly industrialised, roughly 53% of deliveries 1. This matters because its model combines cost efficiency with clear ESG targets.
SWOT
Strengths
- Extensive experience in industrialised construction, applied to a large number of homes and many residential projects.
- Recognition as a public-private partner in affordable housing programmes in Madrid.
- Well-documented environmental and energy efficiency standards in completed projects.
Weaknesses
- The business depends on delivery timing, so short-term results are sensitive to when homes are handed over.
- Geographic concentration in a few regions may limit risk diversification.
- Reliance on external financing exposes the company to credit conditions.
Opportunities
- Wider use of industrialised construction could reduce costs and build times.
- Public affordable housing programmes could open access to new land and concessions.
- Demand for sustainable buildings could support pricing and buyer interest.
Threats
- Rising construction or material costs could reduce project margins.
- Changes in planning rules could delay the granting of building permits.
- A decline in housing demand could slow the pace of sales.
Risks
- Dependence on delivery timingmedium
Revenue is recognised when homes are handed over, so delays can shift results from one period to another.
- Cost of financingmedium
The cost of borrowing can weigh on project returns, especially when interest rates are high.
- Planning regulationmedium
Approvals for land and building permits may be slower than planned, which could postpone projects.
- Construction costsmedium
Higher material or labour prices could compress margins, especially on fixed-price projects.
- Geographic concentrationlow
Activity in a few regions exposes the company to local market developments, including changes in public policy.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the industrialised model keeps its share of deliveries, the company could achieve better costs and timelines than traditional builders.
- Partnerships with regional administrations could bring strategic land and financial support for affordable housing.
- ESG commitments and high energy ratings could support demand from buyers who are sensitive to sustainability.
What would break the thesis
- If construction and financing costs rise, project margins could decline significantly.
- Dependence on deliveries and on the timing of revenue recognition could make quarterly results volatile.
- Geographic concentration could amplify the effects of a fall in demand in the main regions.
What to watch
- Evolution of the share of industrialised homes in deliveries against the 2026 target2027
- Project margins and the evolution of construction and financing costsQ1 2027
- New concessions and partnerships in public affordable housing programmes2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
AEDAS Homes develops and sells residential homes in Spain, from single-family projects to multi-storey buildings. According to the annual report, the group has committed to reducing the carbon footprint of its activity and to expanding the use of modern construction methods. The company has built experience in industrialised construction, applied to over 7,000 homes since 2018 1.
The group also works as a public-private partner, as in the Plan Vive programme of the Madrid Community, where group companies received capital grants under the European Next Generation EU programme. These aids are linked to public domain concessions for energy-efficient homes for affordable rent 1. For the company, this kind of collaboration strengthens its position in the market for sustainable and affordable housing.
In economic terms, the company reports a total tax contribution of about 81 million euros in fiscal 2025/26 1. The report also includes a medium-term strategic target that at least 30% of homes delivered from 2026 onward be fully or partly industrialised 1.
Segments
Traditional residential homes
This is the company's largest segment, covering residential projects built and sold in Spain. The report mentions deliveries across several regions, including Madrid, Valencia, the Balearics and the Canary Islands. The quality and energy efficiency of these projects are part of the company's strategy.
Industrialised and sustainable construction
This segment covers homes built with industrialised components, such as bathrooms, facades and communication cores, on timber or precast concrete structures. The company started projects such as Oase in Gran Canaria, with 96 single-family homes built with a timber structure 1. This segment supports the carbon reduction targets.
Market context
The housing market in Spain, especially in Madrid, is the basis of the company's activity. Sector organisations cited in the report estimate that each home produced indirectly generates several additional jobs. Demand for affordable and sustainable housing is supported by public programmes such as Plan Vive. The evolution of this market depends on financing conditions and regional planning policies.
The regulatory framework in Spain, including the rules for recognising revenue from property sales, influences the timing at which revenue is reported. The company recognises sales when keys are handed over and final payment is made, so short-term results can be sensitive to delivery timing.
Trends
- Industrialisation of constructiontailwind
The shift to prefabricated components and timber or precast concrete structures can shorten build times and costs, according to the company's description. The share of industrialised homes reached about 53% of deliveries in the latest year. If this trend is consolidated, it could support margins and competitiveness.
- Focus on sustainability and energy efficiencytailwind
Most completed projects obtained high energy ratings, and the company maintains strict environmental standards. Demand for energy-efficient buildings is growing, which could favour companies with experience in this area.
- Public affordable housing programmesmixed
Partnerships with regional administrations, such as Plan Vive, provide financial support and access to strategic land. Such programmes can open opportunities, but they depend on the timing and continuity of public policy.
- Construction and financing costsheadwind
Rising material and financing costs could pressure margins and project timelines. The company mentions the cost of financing as a factor that could influence future decisions on capitalising certain costs.
Competitive position
The Spanish residential developer market is fragmented, with numerous regional developers and a few national groups. The company is a member of several provincial developer associations, which reflects its regional presence. Competition centres on land, construction costs and delivery capacity.
The company's differentiation rests on its industrialised construction model and its ESG commitments, which can affect costs and customer perception. Developers without the same experience in prefabricated construction may have different cost structures.
- Other Spanish property developers
The source does not identify US-listed competitors; the company is a member of provincial developer associations.
- Regional developers in Madrid and the Levant
Direct competition for land and housing projects in the company's main regions of activity.
- Developers working on public housing programmes
Companies competing for concessions and land within regional programmes.
- Builders experienced in industrialised methods
Competitors using prefabricated components and timber or precast concrete structures.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202620 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202520 Oct 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2026-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / AEDAS Homes, S.A. · 31 Dec 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.