olivLaw · European equity research
Aena S.M.E., S.A. AENA.MC
Spain · BME Madrid · ISIN ES0105046017 · Vertical: Listed companies from Spain
Aena operates Spain's national airport network and invests in airports abroad. Consolidated revenue in 2025 reached 6278.337 thousand EUR, with aeronautical and commercial activities as the main sources of income.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Aena S.M.E., S.A. (AENA.MC) stock was 28.32 EUR (+0.50% on the day), with market capitalisation 42.6 bn EUR, P/E 19.9 on diluted EPS of 1.42 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.51%, beta 0.55, 52-week range 21.96–28.81 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 74.0
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 24.49 – 28.46
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.97 · band width 15.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 25.89 / 25.92
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.62 / 0.41
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +9.6% | +0.4% | +9.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | +5.6% | −3.3% | +8.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | +16.7% | +4.0% | +12.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +18.9% | +8.1% | +10.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +19.4% | +10.7% | +8.7 pp | +3.2% |
| 3 years | +94.0% | +50.1% | +43.9 pp | +26.0% |
| 5 years | +87.2% | +43.6% | +43.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 1.5, median 1.5, max 16.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.0 bn | 5.8 bn | 6.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +14.4% | +8.9% |
| Net income | 1.6 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +18.6% | +10.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 10.87 | 12.89 | 1.42 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +18.6% | −89.0% |
| net % | 32.4% | 33.6% | 34.0% |
| Free cash flow | 1.7 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 2.0 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- 7.6 bn EUR
- Net debt
- 5.5 bn EUR
- Equity
- 9.2 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 18.2 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.83x
- Current ratio
- 1.88x
- ROE
- 24.2%
- ROA
- 12.1%
- FCF margin
- 32.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.0 bn | 5.8 bn | 6.3 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | 2.2 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.0 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 821.2 m | 847.8 m | 796.9 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 3.0 bn ≈ | 3.5 bn ≈ | 3.8 bn ≈ | esef· 20 Oct 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 206.9 m | 245.7 m | 242.4 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 2.2 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.9 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 520.8 m | 583.7 m | 673.6 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 1.6 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 10.87 | 12.89 | 1.42 | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 4.83 | 7.88 | 1.00 | esef· 20 Oct 2026derived |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 2.4 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Receivables | 889.1 m | 843.8 m | 866.1 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 3.4 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.3 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 12.0 bn | 12.0 bn | 12.1 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 17.8 bn | 17.3 bn | 18.2 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 1.8 bn | 1.3 bn | 864.1 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 6.8 bn | 6.0 bn | 6.7 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 2.7 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.8 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 10.0 bn | 8.8 bn | 9.0 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 7.8 bn | 8.5 bn | 9.2 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 150.0 m | 150.1 m | 1.5 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 2.2 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.8 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 545.0 m | 737.6 m | 720.3 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 1.7 bn ≈ | 2.0 bn ≈ | 2.1 bn ≈ | esef· 20 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -1.4 bn | -804.3 m | -1.3 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -19.6 m | -2.4 bn | -1.2 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 724.3 m | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 63 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 42.6 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Quality71
- Returns57
- Valuation44
- Balance sheet84
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 13.54 – 37.29 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)21.20 – 37.29 (Mid 27.17)WACC 7.8% · starting FCFF 2.3 bn EUR · terminal value share of EV 77%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 10.6%
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
- Peers: P/E21.56 – 32.28 (Mid 28.67)18 companies used · median multiple 20.2x · quartiles 15.2x – 22.7xACS.MC, ADX.MC, AEDAS.MC, AMS.MC, ANA.MC, CAF.MC, CLEO.MC, CMO.MC, DESA.MC, DIA.MC, EAT.MC, EDR.MC, ELE.MC, ENER.MC, ENO.MC, FAE.MC, FCC.MC, FDR.MC
- Dividend discount (DDM)13.54 – 18.46 (Mid 15.62)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 63/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 15.9% | 43 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Net margin · Quality | 34.0% | 95 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 96.7% | 95 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 1.5x | 73 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 12.3x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.9x | 90 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 19.9x | 55 (vs peers) | 13% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 12.7x | 21 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 4.9% | 61 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.5% | 50 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 72.5% | 68 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet84/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality71/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns57/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation44/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
AENA S.M.E. SA (AENA.MC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 6.3 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth 8.9%; net margin 34.0%; ROE 24.2%; net debt/EBITDA 1.5x.
The estimated value range is 21.20–32.28 EUR per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 27.17 EUR, the price of 28.32 EUR leaves a potential of -4.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -4.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 63/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 34.0%
- FCF conversion: 96.7%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 1.5x
- Interest coverage: 12.3x
- Current ratio: 1.9x
What contradicts it
- EV/EBITDA: 12.7x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Spain · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELE.MCEndesa SA | 46.9 bn | 21.4 | 26.4% | 10.5% | +0.5% | +43% / +134% |
| AENA.MCAena S.m.e. SA | 42.6 bn | 19.9 | 24.2% | 34.0% | +8.9% | +21% / +79% |
| AMS.MCAmadeus It Group Sociedad Anonima | 26.2 bn | 19.8 | 26.9% | 20.5% | +6.1% | −6% / −5% |
| ACS.MCAcs Actividades De Construccion Y Servicios, S.A. | 21.9 bn | 23.0 | 19.9% | 1.9% | +19.7% | +7% / +134% |
| ANA.MCAcciona SA | 11.7 bn | 14.5 | 16.9% | 4.0% | +5.5% | +24% / +66% |
| FCC.MCFomento De Construcciones Y Contratas S.A. | 5.0 bn | 30.3 | 5.3% | 1.7% | +6.9% | −8% / −14% |
| FDR.MCFluidra S.A. | 3.8 bn | 21.3 | 10.9% | 7.8% | +4.1% | −17% / +4% |
| DIA.MCDistribuidora Internacional De Alimentacion SA | 2.7 bn | 20.6 | 165.6% | 2.2% | −2.7% | +51% / +380,733% |
| CMO.MCCementos Molins S.A. | 2.5 bn | 13.6 | 14.3% | 18.0% | −3.1% | +31% / unavailable |
| ENO.MCElecnor SA | 2.4 bn | 21.9 | 10.5% | 2.5% | +15.1% | −3% / +58% |
| ALM.MCAlmirall S.A. | 2.4 bn | 51.1 | 3.1% | 4.2% | +12.4% | −11% / +32% |
| FAE.MCFaes Farma SA | 1.5 bn | 19.3 | 10.8% | 13.0% | +23.7% | +3% / +57% |
| AEDAS.MCAedas Homes SA | 1.0 bn | 17.1 | 57.8% | 7.0% | −24.8% | +0% / +38% |
| EDR.MCEdreams Odigeo SA | 574.4 m | 11.5 | 21.0% | 7.8% | −0.4% | +40% / −24% |
| EAT.MCAmRest Holdings SE | 506.0 m | 31.4 | 4.3% | 0.6% | +0.1% | −34% / −61% |
| ADX.MCAudax Renovables S.A. | 468.5 m | 23.9 | 9.3% | 1.0% | −5.4% | −23% / −18% |
| ATRY.MCAtrys Health, S.A. | 200.4 m | — | -49.5% | -71.1% | +8.5% | −3% / −29% |
| ENER.MCEcoener, S.A. | 175.6 m | 32.2 | 4.2% | 6.4% | +3.6% | −34% / −6% |
| ADZ.MCAdolfo Dominguez SA | 62.9 m | 38.3 | 9.0% | 1.2% | +1.8% | +39% / +40% |
| DESA.MCDesarrollos Especiales De Sistemas De Anclaje S.A. | 44.8 m | 9.2 | 152.3% | 10.0% | +2.2% | +19% / unavailable |
| EZE.MCGrupo Ezentis SA | 29.0 m | — | — | -9.3% | +147.2% | −30% / −37% |
| CLEO.MCCompañia Levantina De Edificacion Y Obras Publicas SA | 17.3 m | 14.4 | 4.1% | 3.4% | +13.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AYC.MCAyco Grupo Inmobiliario, S.A. | 16.4 m | — | -33.8% | — | −100.0% | unavailable / unavailable |
| EBRO.MCEbro Foods, S.A. | 3.0 m | 0.0 | 10.0% | 7.7% | −4.0% | −0% / +19% |
| A3M.MCAtresmedia Corporacion De Medios De Comunicacion, S.A. | — | — | 7.9% | 6.9% | −2.7% | +13% / +60% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AENA.MC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 17.49 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 30.85 Total return 13% · Per year 13% | 46.38 Total return 68% · Per year 68% |
| 3 years | 18.52 Total return -26% · Per year -9% | 36.61 Total return 42% · Per year 12% | 60.21 Total return 128% · Per year 32% |
| 5 years | 19.61 Total return -15% · Per year -3% | 43.44 Total return 76% · Per year 12% | 78.15 Total return 206% · Per year 25% |
- Exit P/E± 9.15
- Net margin± 6.41
- Annual revenue growth± 5.04
- Annual dilution± 0.54
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Aena operates Spain's national airport network and invests in airports abroad. Consolidated revenue in 2025 reached 6278.337 thousand EUR 1, with aeronautical and commercial activities as the main sources of income.
SWOT
Strengths
- Dominant position in the national airport network, with diversified revenue between aeronautical and commercial activity.
- Stable revenue flow supported by long-term contracts and important clients.
- Experience in managing a large airport network and in international development.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on a small number of airlines for a large share of aeronautical revenue.
- Activity concentrated in Spain, which makes the company vulnerable to domestic economic conditions.
- International projects have uneven results and expose the company to currency risk.
Opportunities
- Growing investment in airports outside Spain could diversify revenue.
- Developing the commercial segment and premium services could raise revenue per passenger.
- Investment in green infrastructure could reduce long-term climate risks.
Threats
- Climate change may affect traffic and the projections used in impairment tests.
- A fall in air travel demand could significantly reduce aeronautical revenue.
- Regulatory changes and imposed tariffs may limit the company's margins.
Risks
- Client concentrationhigh
A small group of airlines generates a large part of aeronautical revenue, so losing an important client could affect results.
- Climate riskmedium
The company has included climate change in its traffic projections and impairment tests, which adds uncertainty about asset values.
- Currency riskmedium
Investments in Brazil, Mexico and the United Kingdom expose the company to exchange rate movements, and hedging does not fully remove the exposure.
- Regulatory riskmedium
Airport tariffs are shaped by the regulatory framework, and changes could directly affect revenue.
- Accounting estimate risklow
Impairment tests and useful-life assessments involve complex judgements, and changed assumptions could alter reported results.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If air traffic stays solid, aeronautical and commercial revenue could keep growing, as seen in 2025.
- Diversification through international investments could reduce dependence on the Spanish market.
- The dominant position in the national network provides a stable base for long-term revenue.
What would break the thesis
- Concentration on a few clients means that one lost contract could significantly affect results.
- Climate and regulatory risks could squeeze margins or require unexpected investment.
- Currency exposure from international projects can introduce volatility into reported results.
What to watch
- Evolution of aeronautical and commercial revenue2026
- Performance of the Brazil and United Kingdom concessions2026
- Traffic assumptions in impairment testsnext 10-K
- Trend in aeronautical client concentration2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Aena S.M.E., S.A. and its subsidiaries operate airports in Spain's national network, and the Airports segment covers both aeronautical activity and the management of commercial spaces in terminals and car parks 1. The group also runs real estate services and the concession of Murcia International Airport 1. Through Aena Desarrollo Internacional, the company invests in other airport operators in the United Kingdom, Brazil, Mexico and Colombia 1.
The President and Chief Executive Officer is the highest authority for operational decisions, and segment performance is assessed on EBITDA 1. In 2025 consolidated EBITDA was 3785.032 thousand EUR, compared with 3510.332 thousand EUR in 2024 1. The company describes climate change as a risk affecting traffic projections and impairment tests 1.
On the customer side, an important share of aeronautical revenue, 41%, comes from three airlines, which shows a meaningful concentration of clients 1. Variable lease income reached 1773 million EUR in 2025 1.
Segments
Airports (aeronautical and commercial)
The main Spanish segment generated 3297.034 thousand EUR of aeronautical revenue and 1929.692 thousand EUR of commercial revenue in 2025 1.
International
The international segment includes the concessions in Luton, Brazil and Mexico, with consolidated revenue of 415.475 thousand EUR for Luton in 2025 1. Brazil revenue was 487.655 thousand EUR, while Mexico was close to zero 1.
Real estate services
This segment covers industrial and real estate assets outside the terminals and is smaller than the other segments 1.
Market context
The core market is Spain, where external client revenue reached 5371.829 thousand EUR in 2025 1. Activity depends on passenger and aircraft traffic, which is shaped by economic conditions and seasonality 1.
In international markets exposure is smaller but growing through investments in concessions in the United Kingdom, Brazil and Colombia, which could diversify revenue if these projects develop 1.
Trends
- Growth in air traffictailwind
Aeronautical and commercial revenue rose in 2025 compared with the prior year, suggesting traffic remains solid 1. If demand for air travel holds, this trend could support results.
- Climate changeheadwind
The company includes climate risks in its action plan and traffic projections, which can influence investment and impairment tests 1. The effect on costs and traffic is uncertain.
- International expansionmixed
Investments in foreign airports can bring new revenue but also currency and execution risks, and results remain uneven across countries 1.
- Client concentrationmixed
Revenue concentrated in a few airlines reduces diversification, but strong contractual relationships can stabilise collections 1.
Competitive position
The supplied sources describe Aena's airport network and concessions, without explicitly naming direct competitors. Comparison with other airport operators falls outside the source data.
In international markets the company in practice competes with other airport concession operators in the United Kingdom, Brazil and Mexico, though the annual report does not detail these 1.
- Airport concession operators in the United Kingdom
Indirect competition, unnamed in the source, present in the Luton area.
- Airport operators in Brazil
Competition for concessions and traffic in Brazil's airport blocks.
- Airport operators in Mexico
Presence in Mexico's concession market, where revenue was close to zero in 2025.
- Airline clients
Not direct competitors, but they shape revenue through their contracts.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202520 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Aena S.M.E., S.A. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.