olivLaw · European equity research
AmRest Holdings SE EAT.MC
Spain · BME Madrid · ISIN ES0105375002 · Vertical: Listed companies from Spain
AmRest Holdings SE is one of the largest restaurant operators in Europe, running its own restaurants and franchises of brands such as KFC, Pizza Hut, Burger King and Starbucks. Financial debt stood at 659.2 million euro on 31 December 2025, so managing costs and operational risks remains central.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, AmRest Holdings SE (EAT.MC) stock was 2.22 EUR (+3.02% on the day), with market capitalisation 510.6 m EUR, P/E 31.7 on diluted EPS of 0.07 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.15%, beta 0.47, 52-week range 2.16–3.48 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 49.8
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 2.15 – 2.24
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.77 · band width 4.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 2.29 / 2.59
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.03 / -0.03
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −0.9% | +0.4% | −1.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −11.2% | −3.3% | −7.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | −17.8% | +4.0% | −21.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −28.8% | +8.1% | −36.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | −34.7% | +10.7% | −45.4 pp | +3.3% |
| 3 years | −64.7% | +50.1% | −114.8 pp | +30.3% |
| 5 years | −67.4% | +43.6% | −111.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 29.4, median 44.6, max 110.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +5.1% | +0.1% |
| Net income | 44.9 m | 8.5 m | 16.1 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −81.1% | +89.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.21 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −81.0% | +75.0% |
| net % | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| Free cash flow | 184.6 m | 201.4 m | 224.2 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 145.6 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 557.1 m EUR
- Net debt
- 411.5 m EUR
- Equity
- 377.9 m EUR
- Total assets
- 2.4 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 1.47x
- Current ratio
- 0.43x
- ROE
- 4.2%
- ROA
- 0.7%
- FCF margin
- 8.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 308.2 m | 323.1 m | 296.1 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 63.5 m | 87.5 m | 84.8 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 49.0 m | 34.4 m | 37.7 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 4.6 m | 20.9 m | 19.5 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 44.9 m | 8.5 m | 16.1 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.21 | 0.04 | 0.07 | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 0.07 | 0.07 | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 227.5 m | 139.6 m | 145.6 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 34.9 m | 33.1 m | 34.0 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 376.5 m | 288.7 m | 257.0 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 580.4 m | 649.6 m | 683.6 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 253.3 m | 212.5 m | 211.1 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 236.7 m | 238.2 m | 240.4 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 571.4 m | 580.9 m | 557.1 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 604.5 m | 557.8 m | 593.1 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 400.7 m | 388.4 m | 377.9 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 213.8 m | 212.5 m | 230.0 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 370.5 m | 408.5 m | 377.0 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 185.9 m | 207.1 m | 152.8 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 184.6 m ≈ | 201.4 m ≈ | 224.2 m ≈ | esef· 20 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -133.0 m | -214.5 m | -164.6 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -233.5 m | -268.5 m | -220.3 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 6.6 m | 10.5 m | 12.9 m | esef· 20 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 510.6 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
42% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.95 – 42.77 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)20.34 – 42.77 (Mid 27.62)WACC 6.3% · starting FCFF 295.4 m EUR · terminal value share of EV 81%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E1.06 – 1.54 (Mid 1.39)18 companies used · median multiple 19.8x · quartiles 15.1x – 22.0xACS.MC, ADX.MC, AEDAS.MC, AENA.MC, AMS.MC, ANA.MC, CAF.MC, CLEO.MC, CMO.MC, DESA.MC, DIA.MC, EDR.MC, ELE.MC, ENER.MC, ENO.MC, FAE.MC, FCC.MC, FDR.MC
- Dividend discount (DDM)0.95 – 1.30 (Mid 1.10)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 0.6% | 19 (vs peers) | 15% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 1,392.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.4x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 31.7x | 18 (vs peers) | 25% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 43.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.5% | 36 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality59/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial36/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation55/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
AmRest Holdings SE (EAT.MC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.6 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth 0.1%; net margin 0.6%; ROE 4.3%.
The estimated value range is 1.06–1.54 EUR per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 1.39 EUR, the price of 2.22 EUR leaves a potential of -37.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -59.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 1,392.5%
- FCF yield: 43.9%
What contradicts it
- Net margin: 0.6%
- Current ratio: 0.4x
- P/E (TTM): 31.7x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Spain · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELE.MCEndesa SA | 46.9 bn | 21.4 | 26.4% | 10.5% | +0.5% | +43% / +134% |
| AENA.MCAena S.m.e. SA | 42.4 bn | 19.8 | 24.2% | 34.0% | +8.9% | +20% / +78% |
| AMS.MCAmadeus It Group Sociedad Anonima | 26.2 bn | 19.8 | 26.9% | 20.5% | +6.1% | −6% / −5% |
| ACS.MCAcs Actividades De Construccion Y Servicios, S.A. | 22.6 bn | 23.7 | 19.9% | 1.9% | +19.7% | +10% / +142% |
| ANA.MCAcciona SA | 11.6 bn | 14.5 | 16.9% | 4.0% | +5.5% | +23% / +65% |
| FCC.MCFomento De Construcciones Y Contratas S.A. | 5.0 bn | 30.5 | 5.3% | 1.7% | +6.9% | −8% / −13% |
| FDR.MCFluidra S.A. | 3.8 bn | 21.4 | 10.9% | 7.8% | +4.1% | −17% / +5% |
| DIA.MCDistribuidora Internacional De Alimentacion SA | 2.7 bn | 20.7 | 165.6% | 2.2% | −2.7% | +52% / +383,650% |
| CMO.MCCementos Molins S.A. | 2.5 bn | 13.6 | 14.3% | 18.0% | −3.1% | +31% / unavailable |
| ENO.MCElecnor SA | 2.5 bn | 22.2 | 10.5% | 2.5% | +15.1% | −2% / +60% |
| ALM.MCAlmirall S.A. | 2.3 bn | 50.5 | 3.1% | 4.2% | +12.4% | −12% / +31% |
| FAE.MCFaes Farma SA | 1.5 bn | 19.3 | 10.8% | 13.0% | +23.7% | +3% / +57% |
| AEDAS.MCAedas Homes SA | 1.0 bn | 17.1 | 57.8% | 7.0% | −24.8% | +0% / +38% |
| EDR.MCEdreams Odigeo SA | 571.1 m | 11.4 | 21.0% | 7.8% | −0.4% | +40% / −24% |
| EAT.MCAmRest Holdings SE | 510.6 m | 31.7 | 4.3% | 0.6% | +0.1% | −34% / −61% |
| ADX.MCAudax Renovables S.A. | 489.0 m | 25.0 | 9.3% | 1.0% | −5.4% | −19% / −14% |
| ATRY.MCAtrys Health, S.A. | 199.3 m | — | -49.5% | -71.1% | +8.5% | −3% / −29% |
| ENER.MCEcoener, S.A. | 178.8 m | 32.8 | 4.2% | 6.4% | +3.6% | −32% / −4% |
| ADZ.MCAdolfo Dominguez SA | 62.4 m | 38.1 | 9.0% | 1.2% | +1.8% | +38% / +39% |
| DESA.MCDesarrollos Especiales De Sistemas De Anclaje S.A. | 49.6 m | 10.2 | 152.3% | 10.0% | +2.2% | +32% / unavailable |
| EZE.MCGrupo Ezentis SA | 30.0 m | — | — | -9.3% | +147.2% | −27% / −35% |
| CLEO.MCCompañia Levantina De Edificacion Y Obras Publicas SA | 17.3 m | 14.4 | 4.1% | 3.4% | +13.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AYC.MCAyco Grupo Inmobiliario, S.A. | 16.4 m | — | -33.8% | — | −100.0% | unavailable / unavailable |
| EBRO.MCEbro Foods, S.A. | 3.0 m | 0.0 | 10.0% | 7.7% | −4.0% | −0% / +19% |
| A3M.MCAtresmedia Corporacion De Medios De Comunicacion, S.A. | — | — | 7.9% | 6.9% | −2.7% | +12% / +59% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for EAT.MC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 1.25 Total return -41% · Per year -41% | 2.22 Total return 3% · Per year 3% | 3.35 Total return 55% · Per year 55% |
| 3 years | 1.11 Total return -43% · Per year -17% | 2.22 Total return 10% · Per year 3% | 3.70 Total return 79% · Per year 21% |
| 5 years | 0.98 Total return -45% · Per year -11% | 2.23 Total return 16% · Per year 3% | 4.09 Total return 105% · Per year 15% |
- Exit P/E± 0.56
- Net margin± 0.39
- Annual revenue growth± 0.33
- Annual dilution± 0.03
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
AmRest Holdings SE is one of the largest restaurant operators in Europe, running its own restaurants and franchises of brands such as KFC, Pizza Hut, Burger King and Starbucks 1. Financial debt stood at 659.2 million euro on 31 December 2025 1, so managing costs and operational risks remains central.
SWOT
Strengths
- Portfolio of well-known international brands, combining company-operated restaurants and franchises.
- Long operating history in European markets.
- Formal risk management framework, including geopolitical risks.
Weaknesses
- Reliance on debt with near-term maturities that requires periodic refinancing.
- High exposure to energy and raw material costs.
- Partial cash settlement of pay linked to the share price adds a variable cost component.
Opportunities
- Franchise expansion could add revenue without comparable own investment.
- Digital ordering could raise visit frequency and operating efficiency.
- Opening restaurants in new markets could diversify revenue sources.
Threats
- Economic slowdown could reduce restaurant spending.
- Cyberattacks and system outages could disrupt operations.
- Regulatory changes could lead to fines or operating restrictions.
Risks
- Food safetyhigh
Quality or health issues linked to products served could damage reputation and sales.
- Cost of raw materialshigh
Rising supply prices could reduce operating margins.
- Franchisee credit riskmedium
As the share of franchises grows, losses from partner non-payment become more relevant.
- Currency riskmedium
Converting revenues from different currencies could affect consolidated results.
- Cyber riskmedium
Unauthorised access to data or system outages could disrupt activity.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If franchise expansion and digital ordering continue, the group could grow revenue without a proportional rise in costs.
- A portfolio of well-known brands could support demand even when consumer spending comes under pressure.
- A formal risk management framework could help the company react faster to geopolitical change.
What would break the thesis
- If the economic slowdown deepens, restaurant spending could fall more than expected.
- Pressure from energy and raw material costs could limit any improvement in margins.
- Debt with near-term maturities could become more expensive if interest rates rise.
What to watch
- Evolution of financial debt and refinancing of the syndicated loan2026
- Operating margins relative to raw material costsQ1 2026
- Share of franchises in group revenue and quality of the franchise portfolionext 10-K
- Geopolitical and regulatory effects on operations in key markets2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The AmRest group operates company-owned restaurants and franchises for several international food brands, active in the market since 1993 1. Its model combines direct restaurant management with franchise development, which changes its credit risk and operational control profile 1. Consolidated financial statements are prepared in euro and cover the year ended 31 December 2025 1.
The company funds itself through a syndicated bank loan maturing in 2028 and a series of local credit lines 1. Long-term incentive plans are tied to group EBITDA, so operating performance feeds directly into staff costs 1.
The group also reports sustainability information under a voluntary framework, focusing on food, people and the environment 1. These goals are tracked alongside management of food safety and supply chain risks 1.
Segments
Company-operated restaurants
Restaurants run directly by the group carry the full exposure to staff, energy and raw material costs, but give direct control over quality and service standards 1.
Franchising
The franchise model extends the group's presence without matching own investment, but raises exposure to franchisee credit risk, an area the company calls a priority 1.
Compensation and equity
LTI and SOP plans are settled partly in shares and partly in cash for participants in China, adding a variable cost component linked to the share price on the Madrid stock exchange 1.
Market context
AmRest operates in several European markets and in Central Asia, where restaurant spending depends on disposable income, inflation and consumer confidence 1. The company explicitly names economic slowdown in its countries of operation as a factor that can reduce consumer spending and restaurant revenues 1.
Geopolitical tensions, including the conflict in Ukraine and instability in the Middle East, created uncertainty in the markets where the group is present in 2025 1. The company says it has adapted its enterprise risk framework to respond to different scenarios 1.
Trends
- Raw material and energy costsheadwind
Rising prices for food commodities and energy could reduce operating margins if they cannot be passed on to customers 1.
- Expansion of the franchise modelmixed
A higher share of franchises could diversify revenue but shifts part of the credit risk to external partners 1.
- Digitalisation of ordering and paymentsmixed
Electronic ordering platforms and point-of-sale systems can support sales, but increase exposure to outages and cyberattacks 1.
- Financing costsheadwind
Movements in interest rates could raise the cost of variable-rate borrowing, while part of the debt carries fixed rates 1.
Competitive position
The company operates in a competitive sector where market share could be lost if it fails to anticipate customer trends or competitor actions 1. Pricing and promotion strategy must be adjusted continuously to keep demand and margins 1.
Beyond local competition, the group faces price pressure from competitor promotions and changing consumer preferences 1. The sections reviewed do not name specific competitors.
- Other franchisees of the same brands
The source refers to competitors in general terms without naming them and without US-listed tickers.
- Local restaurants and regional chains
Local competition in the markets served is mentioned in the risk analysis but not detailed.
- Coffee shop and fast-food chains
Competitors in the coffee and fast-food segments are referred to generically in the risk analysis.
- Delivery and online ordering platforms
Digital competition and price pressure are mentioned, with no entities named in the source.
News & filings
In the press
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202520 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / AmRest Holdings SE · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.