olivLaw · European equity research
Airtel Africa plc AAF.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00BKDRYJ47 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Airtel Africa runs mobile networks, data services, the Airtel Money mobile wallet and, increasingly, home broadband in 14 African countries. Revenue in fiscal 2026 rose to 6,415 million USD, and the underlying EBITDA margin reached 49.3%, driven by strong data demand in a young population market.
At the close of 06 Nov 2026, Airtel Africa plc (AAF.L) stock was 2.78 GBP (−4.01% on the day), with beta 0.68, 52-week range 2.59–4.20 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 45.5
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 2.62 – 2.94
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.49 · band width 11.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 3.06 / 3.36
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.08 / -0.11
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −11.3% | −0.6% | −10.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −15.7% | −4.2% | −11.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | −24.4% | +4.3% | −28.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −21.8% | +7.5% | −29.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | −5.4% | +9.9% | −15.3 pp | +5.4% |
| 3 years | +141.4% | +49.8% | +91.5 pp | +24.2% |
| 5 years | +129.0% | +42.8% | +86.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.0 bn | 5.0 bn | 6.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −0.5% | +29.5% |
| Net income | -165.0 m | 220.0 m | 679.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +208.6% |
| Diluted EPS | -0.04 | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +210.0% |
| net % | -3.3% | 4.4% | 10.6% |
| Free cash flow | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.4 bn |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Mar 2026
- Cash
- 646.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 1.2 bn USD
- Net debt
- 523.0 m USD
- Equity
- 3.5 bn USD
- Total assets
- 14.0 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.34x
- Current ratio
- 0.58x
- ROE
- 21.7%
- ROA
- 5.2%
- FCF margin
- 38.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.0 bn | 5.0 bn | 6.4 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Operating income | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.1 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 788.0 m | 831.0 m | 1.0 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 2.4 bn ≈ | 2.3 bn ≈ | 3.2 bn ≈ | esef· 11 Jun 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | -63.0 m | 661.0 m | 1.4 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Income tax | 26.0 m | 333.0 m | 606.0 m | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Net income | -165.0 m | 220.0 m | 679.0 m | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.04 | 0.06 | 0.19 | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 620.0 m | 552.0 m | 646.0 m | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Receivables | 184.0 m | 203.0 m | 193.0 m | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Inventories | 26.0 m | 19.0 m | 16.0 m | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Current assets | 2.3 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.9 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 2.6 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.2 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Total assets | 9.9 bn | 12.0 bn | 14.0 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 947.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 4.0 bn | 4.2 bn | 5.0 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 7.6 bn | 9.2 bn | 10.5 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.3 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.5 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 3.8 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.7 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026derived |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 3.2 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Capex | 868.0 m | 736.0 m | 753.0 m | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 1.4 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 2.4 bn ≈ | esef· 11 Jun 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -1.2 bn | -562.0 m | -986.0 m | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -844.0 m | -1.5 bn | -1.6 bn | esef· 11 Jun 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
06 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
38% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 2.25 – 4.26 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
- Peers: P/E2.25 – 4.26 (Mid 2.98)19 companies used · median multiple 16.0x · quartiles 12.1x – 22.9x0EV1.L, ABDN.L, ABF.L, AIRE.L, AJB.L, ALFA.L, AMIF.L, APN.L, APTD.L, ASHM.L, AUTO.L, BAB.L, BAG.L, BATS.L, BBY.L, BCG.L, BKG.L, BME.L, BMS.L
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 32.5% | 88 (vs peers) | 28% |
| Net margin · Quality | 10.6% | 49 (vs peers) | 17% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 359.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.2x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 28% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet71/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality80/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
AIRTEL AFRICA PLC (AAF.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-03-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 6.4 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 29.5%; net margin 10.6%; ROE 24.1%; net debt/EBITDA 0.2x.
The estimated value range is 2.25–4.26 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 32.5%
- FCF conversion: 359.6%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.2x
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.6x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 101.0 bn | 13.1 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +3% / +82% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.4 bn | 14.1 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −7% / −16% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.0 bn | 24.4 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −11% / +155% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.3 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.3 bn | 16.4 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +21% / +162% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.0 bn | 10.6 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +8% / +37% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.5 bn | 11.1 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −2% / −24% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.8 bn | 17.2 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +66% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.6 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +7% / +126% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.7 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +27% / +16% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 757.3 m | 35.9 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +70% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 660.8 m | 14.2 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −9% / +24% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 496.9 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +72% / +9% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 480.3 m | 16.0 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −29% / +8% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 341.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −46% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 112.5 m | 28.7 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| BMS.LBraemar PLC | 77.7 m | 38.8 | 2.7% | 1.7% | −4.4% | +12% / −12% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 10.3 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +340% / +878% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −11% / +154% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +61% / +64% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AAF.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Airtel Africa runs mobile networks, data services, the Airtel Money mobile wallet and, increasingly, home broadband in 14 African countries. Revenue in fiscal 2026 rose to 6,415 million USD 1, and the underlying EBITDA margin reached 49.3% 1, driven by strong data demand in a young population market.
SWOT
Strengths
- Leading positions in several markets, with a large customer base and strong growth in data customers, supported by a broad network and distribution footprint 1.
- High operating margins and an efficiency programme that brought the underlying EBITDA margin to a record level in fiscal 2026 1.
- Airtel Money has a large user base and fast-growing processed volume, which strengthens customer loyalty to the network 1.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on Nigeria, a market with high currency and regulatory risk, exposes the group to abrupt policy changes 1.
- The Airtel Money segment margin fell because of the renegotiation of intra-group agreements, showing sensitivity of results to internal structure 1.
- Revenue growth was partly driven by tariff adjustments and currency appreciation, which do not automatically repeat 1.
Opportunities
- Low penetration of smartphones and home broadband across Africa offers a long runway for data and digital service growth 1.
- Investment in data centres and home broadband could open new revenue sources beyond traditional mobile services 1.
- The partnership with SpaceX for satellite connectivity could extend coverage to rural and forested areas 1.
Threats
Risks
- Competition and market disruptionhigh
New entrants or aggressive pricing by rivals could reduce the group's revenue and margins 1.
- Currency risk and shortage of foreign currencyhigh
Exchange rate swings and shortages of hard currency in some countries could affect reported dollar results and the ability to repatriate funds 1.
- Regulatory uncertaintymedium
Changes in rules on tariffs, spectrum, SIM registration and taxes could quickly change operating conditions in several countries 1.
- Supply chain and fuelmedium
Disruption to global supply chains and fuel shortages could affect the network and operating costs, including for off-grid sites 1.
- Cyber security and the Airtel Money platformmedium
Cyber attacks or outages of the mobile money platform could damage customer trust and segment results 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for data and smartphones keeps growing, revenue from mobile services and Airtel Money could sustain high growth for several years 1.
- The efficiency programme and the record underlying EBITDA margin could keep supporting operating profit growth if cost pressures remain manageable 1.
- Lower leverage and rising operating free cash flow could give the group flexibility to invest in data centres and home broadband 1.
What would break the thesis
- If Nigerian tariff adjustments do not repeat and currency appreciation reverses, reported revenue growth could slow considerably 1.
- Inflationary pressure from oil prices could reduce EBITDA margins if energy and fuel costs keep rising 1.
- High capex for the next year could limit free cash flow, and the return on new areas such as data centres remains uncertain 1.
What to watch
- Trend in the underlying EBITDA margin amid energy cost pressure2027
- Delivery of capex guidance of about 1.1 billion USD and results from HBB and data centre investment2027
- Effect of Nigerian tariff adjustments once the year-on-year comparison normalisesQ1 2027
- Airtel Money processed value and segment margin after the renegotiation of intra-group agreementsnext annual report
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Airtel Africa is a telecommunications operator active in several African countries, organised into three areas: mobile services (voice and data), Airtel Money and, through recent investment, home broadband and data centres 1. The total customer base reached 183.5 million at the end of fiscal 2026, of which 84.2 million were data customers 1. The company describes Nigeria as its largest market, which makes it sensitive to local regulation and tariff policy 1.
The group's strategy focuses on growing data revenue, extending 4G and 5G networks and scaling mobile money services, while keeping costs under control through an efficiency programme 1. The source notes that in fiscal 2026 constant-currency revenue growth was supported by both data demand and Nigerian tariff adjustments 1.
The group invested 884 million USD in capex in fiscal 2026 and built over 3,250 new sites, while capex guidance for the next year is about 1.1 billion USD, including additional investment in data centres and home broadband 1. Leverage fell from 2.3x to 1.8x 1.
Segments
Home broadband and data centres
Home broadband (HBB) is described as the fastest-growing product in East Africa, though its share of customers remains small, which suggests room for growth 1. Future investment in data centres and HBB is part of the next year's capex guidance, but the source gives no separate figures for these activities 1.
Market context
Nigeria, the group's largest market, grew 47.5% in constant currency in fiscal 2026, supported by data revenue growth and tariff adjustments approved in January 2025 1. East Africa grew 17.8% and Francophone Africa 17.1% over the same period 1. The source notes that East Africa has the fastest GDP growth on the continent, at 5.4% in 2025 1.
Regional markets remain under-penetrated in smartphones and home broadband, which offers growth potential, but also face pressure from currency volatility, fuel shortages and cost of living 1. The source notes that late in the year, Middle East tensions lifted global crude prices and could pressure margins in the short to medium term 1.
Trends
- Data and smartphone demandtailwind
Average data usage per customer rose to 8.9 GB per month in fiscal 2026, and smartphone penetration reached 49.5% 1. If this trend continues, data revenue could remain the group's main growth engine 1.
- Tariff adjustments and regulation in Nigeriamixed
The approval of tariff adjustments in January 2025 supported growth in fiscal 2026, but the effect diluted in Q4 2026 as the year-on-year comparison changed 1. Rules on SIM registration slowed the addition of new customers 1.
- Inflationary pressure and oil pricesheadwind
The regional conflict in the Middle East led to inflationary pressures in several key markets late in fiscal 2026, and management expects these could reduce EBITDA margins in the short to medium term 1.
- Currency appreciationmixed
The appreciation of the Nigerian naira and other local currencies made reported revenue grow faster than constant-currency revenue, so part of the growth depends on exchange rates 1. If currencies depreciate, the same effect could work in reverse 1.
Competitive position
The source describes an intense competitive environment, especially on price and market share, where new entrants or aggressive moves by rivals could reduce prices and margins 1. Competitors vary by market: in Nigeria, East Africa and Francophone Africa the source names local and regional operators, some with state participation or private shareholders 1.
The company responds through investment in customer experience, handset subsidy programmes, Airtel Money, which strengthens loyalty, and partnerships, including with SpaceX for direct-to-cell satellite connectivity in areas without terrestrial coverage 1.
- MTN Group
Operator active in several markets named by Airtel Africa, including Rwanda, Uganda, Zambia, the Republic of the Congo and Cameroon, where it competes directly in mobile services and mobile money 1.
- Safaricom
The dominant operator in Kenya, listed outside the US, is named as a direct competitor in one of the East African markets 1.
- Vodacom
Operator present in Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, named as a competitor in both regions 1.
- Orange
Operator present in Madagascar, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and other French-speaking markets, where it competes directly with Airtel Africa 1.
News & filings
In the press
- Airtel Money to Debut After London’s Biggest IPO in Five YearsBloomberg Markets · 09 Oct 2026 · EN
- Airtel Money Plans UK IPO That May Rank as Biggest in Five YearsBloomberg Markets · 01 Oct 2026 · EN
- Does Airtel Money mark the end of London’s listing drought? Not yet | Nils PratleyThe Guardian World · 23 Sept 2026 · EN
- London’s Struggling IPOMarket Shows Signs ofLife with Airtel ListingBloomberg Markets · 23 Sept 2026 · EN
- Mobile Payments Firm Airtel Money Announces Plans for London IPOBloomberg Markets · 23 Sept 2026 · EN
- Airtel Money Is Said to Trim IPO Size Ahead of Deal Kick OffBloomberg Markets · 17 Sept 2026 · EN
- Airtel Mulls UK Listing of its Money Unit in DollarsBloomberg Markets · 14 Aug 2026 · EN
- Airtel Mobile-Money Unit Chooses London for Listing LocationBloomberg Markets · 23 Jul 2026 · EN
- Indian telecom major Bharti Airtel is doubling down on overseas businessesCNBC World · 22 May 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202611 Jun 2026
- Annual report 202510 Jun 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Airtel Africa plc · 31 Mar 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.