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olivLaw · US equity research

Aebi Schmidt Holding AG AEBI

Construction Machinery & Equip · SIC 3531 · Vertical: Construction Machinery & Equip (SIC 3531)

11.63USD+0.69% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Aebi Schmidt is a global manufacturer of specialty vehicles headquartered in Switzerland, supplying municipal fleets, airports and farmers working steep terrain. The July 2025 acquisition of Shyft markedly expanded its North American business, and 2026 guidance points to net sales of $1.95 to $2.15 billion.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) stock was 11.63 USD (+0.69% on the day), with market capitalisation 902.5 m USD, P/E 41.0 on diluted EPS of 0.28 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.46%, beta 1.91, 52-week range 9.24–15.61 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 496.4 m USD (+78.7% YoY), net income of 10.5 m USD, diluted EPS 0.14 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
902.5 m USD
shares as of 07 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
41.0
Diluted EPS TTM 0.28 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
2.44%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
1.46%
DPS 12m 0.17
Beta (2y)
1.91
Volatility (1y) 50%
52-week range
9.2415.61

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
56.3
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
10.81 – 11.67
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.96 · band width 7.7%
SMA 50 / 200
11.58 / 12.37
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.03 / -0.06
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+4.4%−1.1%+5.5 pp—
3 months−11.2%−0.5%−10.8 pp—
6 months+1.1%+4.4%−3.3 pp—
Year to date−8.1%+12.3%−20.4 pp—
1 year+8.3%+13.5%−5.3 pp+18.0%
3 yearsunavailable+76.4%unavailable+26.4%
5 yearsunavailable+63.7%unavailable—
Max drawdown (1y)
−40.8%
06 Feb 2026 → 26 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−40.8%
06 Feb 2026 → 26 Mar 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
unavailable
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
496.4 m USD
+78.7% YoY
Net income
10.5 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
0.14
unavailable YoY
net / operating
2.1% / 5.4%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue262.5 m298.2 m249.2 m277.7 m471.3 m528.4 m455.5 m496.4 m
Cost of revenue207.6 m240.8 m195.9 m220.9 m377.2 m428.6 m368.2 m399.1 m
Gross profit54.9 m57.5 m53.3 m56.8 m94.1 m99.8 m87.4 m97.3 m
Research & development4.6 m4.6 m4.6 m5.4 m8.7 m7.7 m6.7 m6.4 m
SG&A30.1 m36.0 m30.7 m33.6 m59.3 m57.1 m58.5 m55.7 m
Operating income16.3 m12.7 m14.4 m13.9 m17.5 m27.3 m15.4 m27.0 m
Depreciation & amortisation6.6 m ≈7.0 m6.6 m6.4 m ≈15.0 m ≈16.2 m13.8 m14.2 m ≈
Interest expense8.7 m7.8 m6.5 m9.3 m14.2 m11.8 m11.4 m11.1 m
Pre-tax income5.9 m11.8 m2.8 m-3.2 m747.0 k10.8 m1.2 m15.3 m
Income tax1.5 m2.3 m787.0 k-890.0 k-447.0 k2.0 m488.0 k4.8 m
Net income4.3 m9.5 m2.1 m-2.3 m1.2 m8.8 m695.0 k10.5 m
Diluted EPS0.110.23 ≈0.05-0.060.020.11 ≈0.010.14
Operating cash flow22.0 m ≈53.9 m-26.6 m5.3 m ≈-3.3 m ≈33.5 m-17.7 m7.1 m ≈
Capex2.9 m ≈4.3 m3.1 m2.1 m ≈5.2 m ≈3.8 m1.9 m2.7 m ≈
Dividends paid0 ≈009.5 m ≈2.1 m ≈1.8 m2.0 m2.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 4-quarter history (min 44.2, median 76.6, max 116.0; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year202320242025
Revenue1.0 bn1.1 bn1.5 bn
Revenue YoYunavailable+6.9%+40.6%
Net income11.2 m30.7 m9.7 m
Net income YoYunavailable+174.0%−68.3%
Diluted EPS0.280.760.17
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable+171.4%−77.6%
net %1.1%2.8%0.6%
Free cash flow18.4 m55.2 m-5.2 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
98.5 m USD
Financial debt
595.0 m USD
Net debt
496.4 m USD
Equity
815.0 m USD
Total assets
2.0 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.73x
Current ratio
1.90x
ROE
1.7%
ROA
0.6%
FCF margin
-0.3%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
1.0 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
808.9 m
2024
857.7 m
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
206.7 m
2024
228.2 m
2025
304.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Research & development
2023
17.1 m
2024
19.6 m
2025
26.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

SG&A
2023
117.1 m
2024
124.7 m
2025
180.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
59.0 m
2024
68.5 m
2025
73.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
27.2 m
2024
26.4 m
2025
44.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
86.2 m ≈
2024
94.9 m ≈
2025
117.3 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
38.0 m
2024
34.1 m
2025
41.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
17.3 m
2024
41.7 m
2025
11.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
6.1 m
2024
10.9 m
2025
1.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
11.2 m
2024
30.7 m
2025
9.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.28
2024
0.76
2025
0.17

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
40.3 m
2024
40.4 m
2025
58.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.05
2024
0.08
2025
0.17

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
42.7 m
2024
65.2 m
2025
98.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
—
2024
174.0 m
2025
310.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
—
2024
231.4 m
2025
346.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
—
2024
518.2 m
2025
877.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
—
2024
68.6 m
2025
167.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
221.2 m
2024
221.2 m
2025
403.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
—
2024
175.3 m
2025
334.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
—
2024
1.1 bn
2025
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
—
2024
93.6 m
2025
234.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
—
2024
23.3 m
2025
46.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
—
2024
376.6 m
2025
548.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
—
2024
267.2 m
2025
461.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
—
2024
722.9 m
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
338.0 m
2024
365.2 m
2025
815.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
30.1 m
2024
68.8 m
2025
9.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
11.7 m
2024
13.6 m
2025
14.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
18.4 m ≈
2024
55.2 m ≈
2025
-5.2 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-21.6 m
2024
-9.1 m
2025
5.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-22.4 m
2024
-35.4 m
2025
16.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
2.1 m
2024
3.2 m
2025
13.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
40.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT growth (YoY)
6.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-68.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
-77.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
-109.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
19.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
7.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
4.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
1.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
0.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
3.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
1.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
7.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
5.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
59.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
132.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
507.9 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
3.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
1.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
19.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
13.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
5.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
28.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
13.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
43 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
79 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
39 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
83 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
902.5 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
1.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
42.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
41.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
2.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
0.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
9.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
16.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
0.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
151.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
0.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
1.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Risk

Altman Z
1.88
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 27 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score < 40 · (margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])

Closing price

11.63 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 902.5 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
902.5 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
41.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
9.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
3.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
1.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
40.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
1.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

35/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 07 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 13 Aug 2026
verified 413derived 32

Score by group

  • Balance sheet29
  • Valuation34
  • Quality25
  • Returns7

Estimated value range

Low
5.93
USD per share
Mid
8.98
USD per share
High
12.78
USD per share
Price: 11.63 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -22.8% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -29.5% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 4 methods used · 3 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 2.23 – 15.22 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)5.28 – 15.22 (Mid 8.72)
    WACC 7.4% · starting FCFF 42.4 m USD · terminal value share of EV 80%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 23.3%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA6.77 – 12.40 (Mid 9.89)
    3 companies used · median multiple 8.7x · quartiles 7.1x – 10.0x
    ASTE, MTW, PLOW
  • Peers: P/E6.58 – 13.17 (Mid 9.25)
    5 companies used · median multiple 32.6x · quartiles 23.2x – 46.4x
    ASTE, CAT, CNH, MTW, PLOW
  • Dividend discount (DDM)2.23 – 3.00 (Mid 2.56)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Construction Machinery & Equip (SIC 3531)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 27/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality7.9%46 (on a fixed band)13%
Net margin · Quality1.1%14 (vs peers)8%
FCF conversion · Quality28.1%0 (on a fixed band)8%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet3.5x15 (on a fixed band)13%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet1.8x5 (on a fixed band)8%
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.0x98 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation41.0x40 (vs peers)13%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation9.6x49 (on a fixed band)13%
FCF yield · Valuation0.7%8 (on a fixed band)10%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.9%12 (on a fixed band)8%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns132.3%0 (on a fixed band)5%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet29/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Quality25/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns7/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation34/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.5 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 40.6%; net margin 1.1%; ROE 3.6%; net debt/EBITDA 3.5x.

The estimated value range is 5.93–12.78 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 8.98 USD, the price of 11.63 USD leaves a potential of -22.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -29.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 27/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Current ratio: 2.0x

What contradicts it

  • Net margin: 1.1%
  • FCF conversion: 28.1%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 3.5x
  • Interest coverage: 1.8x
  • FCF yield: 0.7%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.9%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 132.3%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y.

Versus the vertical median

Construction Machinery & Equip (SIC 3531) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
41.0x
vertical median 32.6x
above median (+25.7%)
EV/EBITDA
9.6x
vertical median 10.0x
at median
P/S
0.5x
vertical median 0.7x
below median (−32.9%)
P/B
1.1x
vertical median 1.6x
below median (−31.0%)
ROE
3.6%
vertical median 4.0%
below median (−10.4%)
Net margin
1.1%
vertical median 1.7%
below median (−36.5%)
EBIT margin
4.5%
vertical median 7.7%
below median (−41.8%)
Revenue YoY
40.6%
vertical median 4.3%
above median (+846.0%)
Net debt/EBITDA
3.5x
vertical median 1.8x
above median (+90.2%)
Dividend yield
1.5%
vertical median 1.2%
above median (+23.6%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
CATCaterpillar Inc270.6 bn23.256.1%15.2%+4.3%+3% / +136%
CNHCnh Industrial N.V.14.5 bn47.04.0%1.7%−8.8%+24% / +9%
ASTEAstec Industries, Inc.904.9 m46.42.9%1.3%+8.1%−11% / +26%
AEBIAebi Schmidt Holding AG902.5 m41.03.6%1.1%+40.6%+8% / unavailable
PLOWDouglas Dynamics, Inc879.7 m13.822.2%8.7%+15.4%+18% / +40%
MTWThe Manitowoc Company, Inc.837.7 m32.63.8%1.1%+2.9%+106% / +62%
CMCOColumbus McKinnon Corporation537.7 m—-30.8%-19.6%+23.9%+13% / −47%
GENCGencor Industries, Inc.——6.9%13.5%+2.0%+31% / +17%

1- and 3-year price returns: for AEBI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
7.31
Total return -36% · Per year -36%
12.86
Total return 12% · Per year 12%
19.30
Total return 68% · Per year 68%
3 years
8.67
Total return -21% · Per year -8%
17.01
Total return 52% · Per year 15%
27.79
Total return 146% · Per year 35%
5 years
10.29
Total return -4% · Per year -1%
22.50
Total return 104% · Per year 15%
40.02
Total return 259% · Per year 29%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 4.25
  • Net margin± 2.98
  • Annual revenue growth± 2.22
  • Annual dilution± 0.25

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Aebi Schmidt is a global manufacturer of specialty vehicles headquartered in Switzerland, supplying municipal fleets, airports and farmers working steep terrain. The July 2025 acquisition of Shyft markedly expanded its North American business, and 2026 guidance points to net sales of $1.95 to $2.15 billion 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has long-established brands with lasting recognition in snow removal, sweeping and airport equipment, which supports relationships with institutional customers 1.
  • Expansion into North America through the Shyft acquisition brought a broader commercial footprint and a larger production base 1.
  • The order backlog grew strongly in the second quarter of 2026, giving visibility into future sales 3.

Weaknesses

  • Leverage remains elevated after the acquisition, and management has said debt reduction will be slower as it invests in securing the supply chain 3.
  • The company relies on a limited number of suppliers for critical components, and some are single-sourced, which amplifies disruption risk 1.
  • Margins are under pressure from raw materials such as aluminium and stainless steel, which are volatile and not always covered by fixed-price contracts 1.

Opportunities

  • Demand from urbanisation and municipal infrastructure maintenance could support long-term sales growth 1.
  • Electric delivery vehicles under the Blue Arc brand could open new markets as commercial fleets electrify 1.
  • Synergies between Aebi Schmidt and Shyft could improve margins if operational integration proceeds as planned 3.

Threats

  • Trade tariffs and renegotiated agreements could raise costs and reduce demand from price-sensitive customers 1.
  • Lower or delayed public budgets could postpone municipal and airport orders, especially in periods of financial constraint 1.
  • Large competitors, including divisions of diversified groups, may have superior resources and exert pricing pressure 1.

Risks

  • Tariffs and trade policyhigh

    Changes in US trade policy can raise import costs and make exports harder, with direct impact on margins 1.

  • Supply disruptionhigh

    Critical components such as chassis and engines come from a limited set of suppliers, and a disruption could affect sales 1.

  • Raw material pricesmedium

    Volatility in aluminium, steel and nickel prices can affect production costs, and most purchases are not fixed-price contracts 1.

  • Dependence on public fundingmedium

    Demand from municipalities and airports depends on public budgets, and funding delays can postpone orders 1.

  • Post-acquisition leveragemedium

    High net debt limits financial flexibility, and the year-end 2026 leverage target has been raised 3.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • The order backlog grew strongly and gives visibility into sales for the second half of 2026 3.
  • Adjusted EBITDA growing faster than net sales points to the effect of synergies and efficiency gains 3.
  • A historical position in snow removal and airport equipment provides durable relationships with institutional customers 1.

What would break the thesis

  • Debt remains elevated, and management has pushed back deleveraging to fund supply chain security 3.
  • Tariffs and trade uncertainty could affect costs and demand, particularly for imported components 1.
  • Demand for winter equipment could fall if winters become milder, reducing seasonal sales 1.

What to watch

  • Sales and Adjusted EBITDA trajectory against annual guidanceQ3 2026
  • Conversion of the order backlog into sales in the second half of the year2026
  • Development of leverage and net debt against the updated year-end targetQ4 2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Seasonality is a major factor: the second half of the year tends to outperform the first, as municipalities finalise budgets and issue tenders for winter equipment ahead of the cold season 1. Demand for snow equipment also depends on economic conditions in snow-belt regions, but snow removal is a non-discretionary service, which supports replacement of worn machines 1.

Segments

North America

The North American segment covers Airport & Chassis, Commercial Trucks, Goods Transport and Municipal, and Shyft was integrated here from July 2025 1. Sales for the first half of 2026 totalled $951,953 thousand across the group 2, and second-quarter growth in this region was supported by walk-in van backlog conversion after the production ramp-up was completed 3.

Market context

The addressable market consists of municipal operators, airports, commercial fleets and farmers in regions with difficult terrain, with demand conditioned by public budgets, agricultural subsidies and weather 1. Sales for the first half of 2026 reached $951,953 thousand 2, but much of the increase comes from consolidating Shyft, which makes the organic pace harder to read from gross figures 2.

The guidance published in August 2026 assumes continued normalisation of geopolitical uncertainty, tariff discussions and inflationary pressure through year-end 3. If these pressures persist, costs of imported materials and components could compress margins, and public-funded markets could defer orders 1.

Trends

  • Trade policy and tariffsheadwind

    The company warns that tariffs and renegotiation of trade agreements can raise component costs and reduce customer demand, and the February 2026 Supreme Court ruling did not remove all tariffs 1. Uncertainty remains high and could affect margins if prices cannot be passed on 1.

  • Public funding and farm subsidiesmixed

    Municipal customers and airports depend on public budgets, and farm subsidies can influence purchasing decisions, so funding delays can postpone orders 1. This dependence makes near-term demand less predictable 1.

  • Climate change and shorter wintersheadwind

    Demand for snow equipment is affected by climate change, since shorter winters and less snowfall could reduce sales, while urbanisation and infrastructure maintenance needs may partly offset this 1.

Competitive position

The company competes with European and North American makers of specialty equipment, citing custom design, product quality, service and quick delivery as advantages 1. In airports it faces Boschung and Fresia, in winter maintenance Douglas Dynamics and SnowEx in the United States and Bucher Municipal in Europe, and in summer maintenance Hako 1.

Competitors also include divisions of large diversified organisations with greater financial resources than the company 1. In specialty truck equipment Knapheide and Reading Trucks offer comparable solutions in North America 1, while in European agriculture Reform and Lindner are direct rivals 1.

  • Douglas DynamicsPLOW

    North American competitor in snow equipment and winter road maintenance, named in the company's filings 1.

  • Knapheide

    American competitor in specialty truck equipment and commercial upfits, named in the company's filings 1.

  • Bucher Municipal

    European competitor in winter maintenance, summer sweeping and municipal equipment 1.

  • Boschung

    European airport equipment competitor, named as a rival in runway clearing 1.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Aebi Schmidt Holding AG · 19 Mar 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Aebi Schmidt Holding AG · 13 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Aebi Schmidt Holding AG · 13 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.