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olivLaw · US equity research

Astec Industries, Inc. ASTE

Construction Machinery & Equip · SIC 3531 · Vertical: Construction Machinery & Equip (SIC 3531)

35.36USD−10.03% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

Astec Industries designs and manufactures equipment for road building, asphalt and concrete production and aggregate processing, plus parts and services. In the second quarter of 2026 net sales grew 23.6% to 408.1 million USD and backlog reached 601.1 million USD, yet the company cut its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance because of timing of asphalt plant shipments.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Astec Industries, Inc. (ASTE) stock was 35.36 USD (−10.03% on the day), with market capitalisation 814.8 m USD, P/E 71.2 on diluted EPS of 0.50 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.47%, beta 1.26, 52-week range 35.36–65.02 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 352.4 m USD (+0.7% YoY), net income of -12.2 m USD, diluted EPS -0.53 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
814.8 m USD
shares as of 30 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
71.2
Diluted EPS TTM 0.50 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
1.41%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.47%
DPS 12m 0.52
Beta (2y)
1.26
Volatility (1y) 44%
52-week range
35.3665.02

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
31.1
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
36.87 – 41.10
below the lower band · %B -0.36 · band width 10.9%
SMA 50 / 200
40.53 / 50.58
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.68 / -0.63
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−14.3%−5.9%−8.3 pp—
3 months−20.0%−4.6%−15.3 pp—
6 months−33.3%+0.2%−33.5 pp—
Year to date−18.4%+7.4%−25.8 pp—
1 year−22.1%+8.2%−30.3 pp+14.0%
3 years+12.3%+68.4%−56.2 pp+23.4%
5 years−45.4%+56.5%−102.0 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−45.6%
30 Apr 2026 → 05 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−61.5%
08 Nov 2021 → 09 Jul 2024
Compound annual growth (5y)
−11.4%
S&P 500 +9.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
352.4 m USD
+0.7% YoY
Net income
-12.2 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.53
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-3.5% / -0.9%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue359.0 m329.4 m330.3 m350.1 m400.6 m396.3 m408.1 m352.4 m
Cost of revenue256.1 m237.0 m242.0 m265.9 m291.3 m297.2 m301.3 m270.1 m
Gross profit102.9 m92.4 m88.3 m84.2 m109.3 m99.1 m106.8 m82.3 m
SG&A68.0 m71.9 m67.0 m83.3 m86.5 m90.2 m85.5 m84.2 m
Operating income34.8 m20.5 m21.4 m1.1 m22.9 m9.0 m20.4 m-3.3 m
Depreciation & amortisation6.7 m6.4 m6.0 m ≈12.3 m ≈11.6 m14.2 m14.4 m ≈14.5 m ≈
Interest expense2.3 m2.0 m2.1 m7.3 m7.1 m7.4 m7.1 m7.2 m
Pre-tax income31.4 m19.7 m22.6 m-5.1 m15.9 m2.8 m15.0 m-9.6 m
Income tax10.4 m5.4 m5.8 m-900.0 k4.0 m1.5 m4.5 m2.7 m
Net income21.1 m14.3 m16.7 m-4.2 m12.0 m1.3 m10.5 m-12.2 m
Diluted EPS0.92 ≈0.620.72-0.180.52 ≈0.060.45-0.53
Operating cash flow36.6 m20.5 m12.9 m ≈-8.1 m ≈36.1 m40.7 m12.1 m ≈17.4 m ≈
Capex4.5 m3.9 m3.9 m ≈4.2 m ≈28.7 m8.1 m7.4 m ≈6.7 m ≈
Dividends paid3.0 m2.9 m3.0 m ≈3.0 m ≈3.0 m3.0 m3.0 m ≈2.9 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 72 percentile of its own 29-quarter history (min 21.0, median 41.5, max 180.7; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue1.2 bn1.2 bn1.0 bn1.1 bn1.3 bn1.3 bn1.3 bn1.4 bn
Revenue YoY−1.1%−0.2%−12.4%+6.9%+16.3%+5.0%−2.5%+8.1%
Net income-60.4 m22.3 m46.0 m15.8 m-100.0 k33.5 m4.3 m38.8 m
Net income YoY−259.8%unavailable+106.3%−65.7%−100.6%unavailable−87.2%+802.3%
Diluted EPS-2.640.982.010.690.001.470.191.68
Diluted EPS YoY−262.0%unavailable+105.1%−65.7%−100.0%unavailable−87.1%+784.2%
net %-5.2%1.9%4.5%1.4%-0.0%2.5%0.3%2.8%
Free cash flow-57.4 m89.2 m126.1 m-12.7 m-114.6 m-6.3 m2.5 m20.7 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
72.0 m USD
Financial debt
331.7 m USD
Net debt
259.7 m USD
Equity
681.6 m USD
Total assets
1.4 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.49x
Current ratio
2.49x
ROE
5.9%
ROA
3.2%
FCF margin
1.5%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
1.0 bn
2024
977.2 m
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
330.8 m
2024
327.9 m
2025
374.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Research & development
2023
22.0 m
2024
23.8 m
2025
26.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
276.4 m
2024
276.1 m
2025
308.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
48.6 m
2024
23.2 m
2025
65.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
25.6 m
2024
26.8 m
2025
36.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
74.2 m ≈
2024
50.0 m ≈
2025
102.2 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
8.9 m
2024
10.7 m
2025
18.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
42.8 m
2024
13.9 m
2025
53.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
9.1 m
2024
9.8 m
2025
14.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
33.5 m
2024
4.3 m
2025
38.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
1.47
2024
0.19
2025
1.68

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
22.8 m
2024
22.9 m
2025
23.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.52
2024
0.52
2025
0.52

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
63.2 m
2024
90.8 m
2025
72.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
455.6 m
2024
422.7 m
2025
466.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
719.5 m
2024
722.8 m
2025
816.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
187.6 m
2024
181.9 m
2025
222.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
46.3 m
2024
25.0 m
2025
111.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
16.4 m
2024
11.2 m
2025
124.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.0 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
116.9 m
2024
79.2 m
2025
93.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
11.0 m
2024
13.3 m
2025
12.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
72.0 m
2024
105.0 m
2025
319.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
299.0 m
2024
271.7 m
2025
328.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
405.6 m
2024
406.0 m
2025
685.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
653.7 m
2024
637.6 m
2025
681.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
27.8 m
2024
23.0 m
2025
61.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
34.1 m
2024
20.5 m
2025
40.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-6.3 m ≈
2024
2.5 m ≈
2025
20.7 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-12.9 m
2024
-18.0 m
2025
-287.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-18.3 m
2024
24.4 m
2025
206.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
11.8 m
2024
11.9 m
2025
11.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
0
2024
0
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2025verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
8.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
3.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
6.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
184.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
802.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
-3.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
784.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
-3.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
728.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
25.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
6.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
3.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
0.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
3.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
1.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
0.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
4.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
4.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
104.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
21.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
292.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
2.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
1.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
1.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
106.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
50.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
55.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
477.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
102.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
155 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
33 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
814.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
1.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
70.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
71.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
1.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
0.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
10.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
22.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
0.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
14.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
6.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
1.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Risk

Altman Z
2.82
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 39 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score < 40

Closing price

35.36 USD

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 814.8 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
814.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
71.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
10.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
1.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
0.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
8.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
1.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

35/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 30 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 05 Nov 2026
verified 2824derived 244

Score by group

  • Quality39
  • Growth29
  • Balance sheet38
  • Returns53
  • Valuation38

Estimated value range

Low
14.23
USD per share
Mid
20.24
USD per share
High
23.37
USD per share
Price: 35.36 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -42.8% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -74.7% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 4 methods used · 3 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 6.83 – 76.13 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)39.83 – 76.13 (Mid 53.06)
    WACC 8.0% · starting FCFF 79.6 m USD · terminal value share of EV 77%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -9.6%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA17.66 – 27.36 (Mid 25.35)
    3 companies used · median multiple 8.4x · quartiles 6.7x – 8.9x
    AEBI, MTW, PLOW
  • Peers: P/E10.79 – 19.39 (Mid 15.13)
    5 companies used · median multiple 30.4x · quartiles 21.7x – 39.0x
    AEBI, CAT, CNH, MTW, PLOW
  • Dividend discount (DDM)6.83 – 9.19 (Mid 7.84)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Construction Machinery & Equip (SIC 3531)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 39/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality4.3%18 (on a fixed band)11%
Net margin · Quality0.7%14 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality477.6%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth3.4%29 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet2.8x34 (on a fixed band)11%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet1.7x3 (on a fixed band)7%
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.3x100 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation71.2x0 (vs peers)11%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation10.7x39 (on a fixed band)11%
FCF yield · Valuation6.8%85 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns1.5%21 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns21.5%100 (on a fixed band)5%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet38/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial29/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality39/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns53/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation38/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Astec Industries, Inc. (ASTE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 8.1%; net margin 0.7%; ROE 1.7%; net debt/EBITDA 2.8x.

The estimated value range is 14.23–23.37 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 20.24 USD, the price of 35.36 USD leaves a potential of -42.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -74.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 39/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 477.6%
  • Current ratio: 2.3x
  • FCF yield: 6.8%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 21.5%

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: 4.3%
  • Net margin: 0.7%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 3.4%
  • Interest coverage: 1.7x
  • P/E (TTM): 71.2x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.5%
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y.

Versus the vertical median

Construction Machinery & Equip (SIC 3531) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
71.2x
vertical median 30.4x
above median (+133.7%)
EV/EBITDA
10.7x
vertical median 8.9x
above median (+20.0%)
P/S
0.5x
vertical median 0.6x
below median (−13.2%)
P/B
1.2x
vertical median 1.4x
below median (−16.5%)
ROE
1.7%
vertical median 4.0%
below median (−56.8%)
Net margin
0.7%
vertical median 1.7%
below median (−56.4%)
EBIT margin
3.1%
vertical median 8.1%
below median (−61.2%)
Revenue YoY
8.1%
vertical median 4.3%
above median (+88.1%)
Net debt/EBITDA
2.8x
vertical median 2.1x
above median (+31.4%)
Dividend yield
1.5%
vertical median 1.3%
above median (+11.1%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
CATCaterpillar Inc253.3 bn21.756.1%15.2%+4.3%−4% / +121%
CNHCnh Industrial N.V.13.9 bn45.24.0%1.7%−8.8%+19% / +5%
AEBIAebi Schmidt Holding AG859.1 m39.03.6%1.1%+40.6%−7% / unavailable
PLOWDouglas Dynamics, Inc849.9 m13.322.2%8.7%+15.4%+14% / +35%
ASTEAstec Industries, Inc.814.8 m71.21.7%0.7%+8.1%−22% / +12%
MTWThe Manitowoc Company, Inc.782.4 m30.43.8%1.1%+2.9%+92% / +51%
CMCOColumbus McKinnon Corporation478.2 m—-30.8%-19.6%+23.9%+1% / −53%
GENCGencor Industries, Inc.——6.9%13.5%+2.0%+25% / +12%

1- and 3-year price returns: for ASTE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
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Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
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Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
20.95
Total return -40% · Per year -40%
37.05
Total return 6% · Per year 6%
55.83
Total return 60% · Per year 60%
3 years
19.89
Total return -40% · Per year -16%
39.64
Total return 17% · Per year 5%
65.65
Total return 91% · Per year 24%
5 years
18.90
Total return -41% · Per year -10%
42.41
Total return 28% · Per year 5%
77.19
Total return 129% · Per year 18%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 9.91
  • Net margin± 6.94
  • Annual revenue growth± 5.75
  • Annual dilution± 0.58

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (05 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (05 Nov 2026).

In brief

Astec Industries designs and manufactures equipment for road building, asphalt and concrete production and aggregate processing, plus parts and services. In the second quarter of 2026 net sales grew 23.6% to 408.1 million USD and backlog reached 601.1 million USD, yet the company cut its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance because of timing of asphalt plant shipments.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company holds a recognized market-leading position in asphalt plants and a large installed equipment base that supports parts and service sales 1.
  • Backlog grew strongly in the second quarter of 2026, giving visibility into future production 3.
  • Recent acquisitions and expanded production capacity complement the portfolio and support growth 2.

Weaknesses

  • Many costs are fixed and cannot be cut quickly when demand falls, which amplifies the effect of market cycles 1.
  • Profitability declined in the second quarter of 2026, with lower net income than a year earlier, amid integration and transformation costs 2.
  • The company relies on a limited number of suppliers for steel and other materials, which exposes production to disruption 1.

Opportunities

  • Expansion into new international markets and a stronger global presence could diversify revenue 1.
  • Developing the digital platform and automation could raise equipment value and service revenue 1.
  • Demand for aggregate processing and recycling could support growth in the Materials Solutions segment 3.

Threats

  • Delays in federal infrastructure funding, if programs are not reauthorized, could reduce demand 1.
  • Larger competitors with greater financial resources can pressure prices and market share 1.
  • Steel tariffs and currency fluctuations can raise costs and reduce competitiveness in foreign markets 1.

Risks

  • Cyclical demandmedium

    Demand for equipment depends on the volume of construction projects, which is cyclical, and downturns can affect revenue and operating results 1.

  • Government fundinghigh

    If the IIJA expires at the end of fiscal 2026 without reauthorization or full funding, demand for products could decline significantly 1.

  • Input costshigh

    Higher steel prices and tariffs could raise production costs beyond what the company can pass on to customers 12.

  • Currency and international exposuremedium

    Exchange rate moves and sanctions or trade policies can affect international sales and margins 1.

  • Production disruptionsmedium

    Natural disasters, equipment failures or geopolitical conflicts can disrupt factories and distribution 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Sales growth in the second quarter of 2026 and an expanding order book could support revenue in coming periods 3.
  • Recent acquisitions and US infrastructure programs provide a growth base if funding remains available 12.
  • Market leadership in asphalt plants and the installed base can generate recurring revenue from parts and services 1.

What would break the thesis

  • The cut to 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance shows that asphalt plant shipments are sensitive to macroeconomic factors 3.
  • Higher steel and oil costs, plus integration expenses, could compress margins and profit 2.
  • Dependence on public funding and customers' credit conditions can make demand volatile 1.

What to watch

  • Trend in orders and backlog for Infrastructure SolutionsQ3 2026
  • Delivery against the revised 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance2026
  • Reauthorization or funding of the IIJA after it expires2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (05 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (05 Nov 2026).

The business

Astec designs, engineers, manufactures, markets and services equipment used mainly in asphalt and concrete road building, as well as equipment for mining, quarrying, demolition, energy and recycling 1. Its products cover every phase of road building, from quarrying and crushing aggregate to applying the road surface 1. Replacement parts and services are an integral part of the business, and the company also operates the Astec Digital controls and telematics platform 1.

The company has two reportable segments, Infrastructure Solutions and Materials Solutions, while Corporate and Other covers the parent and the captive insurer Astec Insurance 1. It completed the TerraSource acquisition on July 1, 2025 and the CWMF acquisition on January 1, 2026, both extending its equipment and parts portfolio 12.

The strategic transformation program includes a multi-year phased rollout of a standardized ERP system replacing much of the existing core financial systems 12. Its costs are significant and affect period results, so their progress is worth following closely 2.

Market context

Demand follows the volume of road and utility projects, which is cyclical, and government funding plays a central role 1. The IIJA allocated 548 billion USD to infrastructure over five years ending in 2026, and its reauthorization is uncertain, which could affect demand if not fully funded 1. Oil prices, which drive asphalt costs, rose in the first half of 2026 and are expected to stay high in the short term 2.

Trends

  • US infrastructure fundingmixed

    Demand depends on multi-year government programs, and an extension or reduction of funding could lower road equipment sales 1.

  • Rising steel pricesheadwind

    Steel prices rose in the first half of 2026 and are expected to remain elevated, which could compress margins if costs cannot be passed on to customers 2.

  • Recovering aggregate demandtailwind

    Dealer and customer demand for aggregate processing equipment has rebounded, and Materials Solutions orders have grown strongly 3.

  • Interest rates and customer financingheadwind

    Higher interest rates can reduce demand and make it harder for customers to finance purchases, which could delay orders 1.

Competitive position

The industry is highly competitive and fragmented, with rivalry on product performance, innovation, range, service and price 1. Some competitors have greater financial and development resources, which could lead to lost sales or market share 1.

Competitors include European and American groups in asphalt, concrete, aggregate and wood-processing equipment, some owned by larger groups such as Wirtgen (John Deere) or Caterpillar 1. Competition limits the company's ability to pass cost increases on to customers 2.

  • Caterpillar Paving ProductsCAT

    Caterpillar division producing paving equipment, listed among the principal competitors in the annual report.

  • Wirtgen Group (John Deere)DE

    Asphalt equipment group within John Deere, named among the main competitors of the infrastructure segment.

  • Alamo Group (Morbark, Diamond Z)ALG

    Group that includes wood chipper and forestry equipment brands relevant to the company's forestry line.

  • Gencor IndustriesGENC

    Manufacturer of asphalt and concrete plants, listed among the direct competitors named in the report.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Astec Industries, Inc. · 25 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Astec Industries, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Astec Industries, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.