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olivLaw · US equity research

Gencor Industries, Inc. GENC

Construction Machinery & Equip · SIC 3531 · Vertical: Construction Machinery & Equip (SIC 3531)

16.72USD−4.73% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

Gencor Industries manufactures heavy machinery in the United States for highway construction, mainly hot mix asphalt plants, asphalt pavers, combustion systems and fluid heat transfer systems. The company reported net revenue of 115,437 thousand dollars in fiscal 2025, and its results still depend on order timing, with the IIJ Act scheduled to expire on September 30, 2026.

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Gencor Industries, Inc. (GENC) stock was 16.72 USD (−4.73% on the day), with market capitalisation 133.9 m USD, P/E 15.6 on diluted EPS of 1.07 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.05, 52-week range 12.23–20.00 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 33.8 m USD (+25.3% YoY), net income of 5.7 m USD (+48.5% YoY), diluted EPS 0.39 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
133.9 m USD
shares as of 04 Aug 2014
P/E (TTM)
15.6
Diluted EPS TTM 1.07 · TTM to 30 Sept 2025
E/P (TTM)
6.40%
TTM to 30 Sept 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.05
Volatility (1y) 38%
52-week range
12.2320.00

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
38.3
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
16.77 – 18.22
below the lower band · %B -0.03 · band width 8.3%
SMA 50 / 200
17.69 / 15.82
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.15 / -0.10
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−7.8%−5.9%−1.9 pp—
3 months+15.7%−4.6%+20.3 pp—
6 months+11.1%+0.2%+10.9 pp—
Year to date+29.0%+7.4%+21.6 pp—
1 year+20.6%+8.2%+12.4 pp+0.5%
3 years+21.2%+68.4%−47.3 pp+24.3%
5 years+43.8%+56.5%−12.8 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−16.4%
17 Aug 2026 → 05 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−55.7%
31 Jul 2024 → 08 Apr 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
+7.5%
S&P 500 +9.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
33.8 m USD
+25.3% YoY
Net income
5.7 m USD
+48.5% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.39
+50.0% YoY
net / operating
16.8% / 17.2%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue20.9 m31.4 m38.2 m27.0 m18.8 m23.6 m33.8 m33.8 m
Cost of revenue15.6 m22.7 m26.9 m19.8 m14.3 m16.8 m23.1 m24.4 m
Gross profit5.4 m8.7 m11.4 m7.1 m4.5 m6.8 m10.7 m9.4 m
Research & development795.0 k677.0 k681.0 k741.0 k659.0 k758.0 k629.0 k680.0 k
SG&A3.3 m3.4 m4.2 m3.3 m4.1 m2.9 m5.8 m3.0 m
Operating income1.2 m4.6 m6.5 m3.1 m-223.0 k3.1 m4.2 m5.8 m
Depreciation & amortisation631.0 k622.0 k584.0 k ≈576.0 k ≈574.0 k542.0 k529.0 k ≈482.0 k ≈
Pre-tax income3.7 m5.2 m8.2 m5.2 m1.6 m4.7 m5.2 m7.2 m
Income tax2.3 m1.3 m2.1 m1.3 m-289.0 k1.2 m1.3 m1.5 m
Net income1.5 m3.8 m6.1 m3.8 m1.9 m3.4 m3.8 m5.7 m
Diluted EPS—0.260.420.26—0.230.260.39
Operating cash flow-3.2 m14.8 m12.4 m ≈-23.9 m ≈-275.0 k11.1 m6.9 m ≈-16.7 m ≈
Capex77.0 k319.0 k141.0 k ≈491.0 k ≈1.0 m973.0 k179.0 k ≈546.0 k ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 28 percentile of its own 29-quarter history (min 12.7, median 25.7, max 71.0; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue98.6 m81.3 m77.4 m85.3 m103.5 m105.1 m113.2 m115.4 m
Revenue YoY+22.3%−17.5%−4.8%+10.1%+21.3%+1.5%+7.7%+2.0%
Net income12.7 m10.2 m5.5 m5.8 m-372.0 k14.7 m14.6 m15.7 m
Net income YoY+50.8%−19.7%−45.8%+5.0%−106.4%unavailable−0.7%+7.6%
Diluted EPS0.860.690.380.39-0.031.000.991.07
Diluted EPS YoY+50.9%−19.8%−44.9%+2.6%−107.7%unavailable−1.0%+8.1%
net %12.9%12.5%7.1%6.8%-0.4%14.0%12.9%13.6%
Free cash flow-15.5 m2.1 m25.2 m1.2 m-13.7 m7.5 m8.5 m1.1 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Sept 2025

Cash
26.6 m USD
Financial debt
0 USD
Net debt
-26.6 m USD
Equity
211.8 m USD
Total assets
222.6 m USD
Debt / equity
0.00x
Current ratio
23.44x
ROE
7.7%
ROA
7.3%
FCF margin
1.0%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
105.1 m
2024
113.2 m
2025
115.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Dec 2025verified

Cost of revenue
2023
76.0 m
2024
81.8 m
2025
83.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Dec 2025verified

Gross profit
2023
29.0 m
2024
31.3 m
2025
31.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Dec 2025verified

Research & development
2023
3.5 m
2024
3.3 m
2025
2.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Dec 2025verified

SG&A
2023
12.2 m
2024
14.3 m
2025
14.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Dec 2025verified

Operating income
2023
13.4 m
2024
13.7 m
2025
14.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Dec 2025verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
2.8 m
2024
2.6 m
2025
2.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Dec 2025verified

EBITDA
2023
16.3 m ≈
2024
16.3 m ≈
2025
16.4 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Dec 2025derived

Pre-tax income
2023
18.8 m
2024
20.7 m
2025
20.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Dec 2025verified

Income tax
2023
4.1 m
2024
6.2 m
2025
4.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Dec 2025verified

Net income
2023
14.7 m
2024
14.6 m
2025
15.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Dec 2025verified

Diluted EPS
2023
1.00
2024
0.99
2025
1.07

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Dec 2025verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
14.7 m
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Dec 2023verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
17.0 m
2024
25.5 m
2025
26.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Dec 2025verified

Receivables
2023
2.5 m
2024
2.0 m
2025
3.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Dec 2025verified

Inventories
2023
71.5 m
2024
63.8 m
2025
53.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Dec 2025verified

Current assets
2023
179.0 m
2024
192.8 m
2025
206.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Dec 2025verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
13.2 m
2024
11.5 m
2025
11.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Dec 2025verified

Total assets
2023
195.9 m
2024
208.1 m
2025
222.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Dec 2025verified

Accounts payable
2023
3.3 m
2024
2.0 m
2025
1.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Dec 2025verified

Long-term debt
2023
0
2024
0
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Dec 2025verified

Current liabilities
2023
14.2 m
2024
10.6 m
2025
8.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Dec 2025verified

Total liabilities
2023
14.3 m
2024
12.0 m
2025
10.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Dec 2025verified

Equity
2023
181.6 m †
2024
196.1 m †
2025
211.8 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Dec 2025verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
10.2 m
2024
9.3 m
2025
3.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Dec 2025verified

Capex
2023
2.7 m
2024
840.0 k
2025
2.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Dec 2025verified

Free cash flow
2023
7.5 m ≈
2024
8.5 m ≈
2025
1.1 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Dec 2025derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-2.7 m
2024
-840.0 k
2025
-2.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Dec 2025verified

Financing cash flow
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Dec 2021verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
2.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
3.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
8.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
2.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
7.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
23.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
8.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
23.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
-86.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
28.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
13.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
11.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
13.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-1.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
6.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
6.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
5.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
19.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
15.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
2.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
1.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
2.7 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
-1.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
-10.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
7.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
10 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
232 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
14 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
228 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
133.9 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
9.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
9.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
11.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
1.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-1.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

Risk

Altman Z
8.59
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

16.72 USD

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 133.9 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
133.9 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
9.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
6.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
13.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
2.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

29/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 04 Aug 2014
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 10 Aug 2026
verified 2125derived 159

Score by group

44% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
44.43
USD per share
Mid
64.57
USD per share
High
81.11
USD per share
Price: 16.72 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 286.2% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 74.1% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 44.43 – 81.11 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/E44.43 – 81.11 (Mid 64.57)
    6 companies used · median multiple 34.7x · quartiles 23.9x – 43.6x
    AEBI, ASTE, CAT, CNH, MTW, PLOW
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Construction Machinery & Equip (SIC 3531)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality13.5%86 (vs peers)14%
FCF conversion · Quality-10.9%0 (on a fixed band)14%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth3.7%31 (on a fixed band)19%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet19.2x100 (on a fixed band)10%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation9.0x100 (vs peers)24%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-1.2%0 (on a fixed band)19%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial31/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality43/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation56/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

GENCOR INDUSTRIES, INC. (GENC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 115.4 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 2.0%; net margin 13.5%; ROE 6.9%.

The estimated value range is 44.43–81.11 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 64.57 USD, the price of 16.72 USD leaves a potential of 286.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 74.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 13.5%
  • Current ratio: 19.2x
  • P/E (TTM): 9.0x
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • FCF conversion: -10.9%
  • FCF yield: -1.2%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Construction Machinery & Equip (SIC 3531) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
9.0x
vertical median 34.7x
below median (−74.1%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 9.3x
P/S
1.2x
vertical median 0.5x
above median (+132.6%)
P/B
0.6x
vertical median 1.2x
below median (−50.5%)
ROE
6.9%
vertical median 3.8%
above median (+82.5%)
Net margin
13.5%
vertical median 1.1%
above median (+1,129.5%)
EBIT margin
11.7%
vertical median 4.0%
above median (+190.2%)
Revenue YoY
2.0%
vertical median 8.1%
below median (−75.1%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 2.8x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.5%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
CATCaterpillar Inc253.3 bn21.756.1%15.2%+4.3%−4% / +121%
CNHCnh Industrial N.V.13.9 bn45.24.0%1.7%−8.8%+19% / +5%
AEBIAebi Schmidt Holding AG859.1 m39.03.6%1.1%+40.6%−7% / unavailable
PLOWDouglas Dynamics, Inc849.9 m13.322.2%8.7%+15.4%+14% / +35%
ASTEAstec Industries, Inc.814.8 m71.21.7%0.7%+8.1%−20% / +14%
MTWThe Manitowoc Company, Inc.782.4 m30.43.8%1.1%+2.9%+92% / +51%
CMCOColumbus McKinnon Corporation478.2 m—-30.8%-19.6%+23.9%+1% / −53%
GENCGencor Industries, Inc.——6.9%13.5%+2.0%+21% / +21%

1- and 3-year price returns: for GENC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
9.80
Total return -41% · Per year -41%
17.34
Total return 4% · Per year 4%
26.13
Total return 56% · Per year 56%
3 years
9.37
Total return -44% · Per year -18%
18.65
Total return 12% · Per year 4%
30.88
Total return 85% · Per year 23%
5 years
8.95
Total return -46% · Per year -12%
20.06
Total return 20% · Per year 4%
36.50
Total return 118% · Per year 17%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 4.66
  • Net margin± 3.26
  • Annual revenue growth± 2.70
  • Annual dilution± 0.27

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Gencor Industries manufactures heavy machinery in the United States for highway construction, mainly hot mix asphalt plants, asphalt pavers, combustion systems and fluid heat transfer systems. The company reported net revenue of 115,437 thousand dollars in fiscal 2025 1, and its results still depend on order timing, with the IIJ Act scheduled to expire on September 30, 2026 12.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Leading position in hot mix asphalt plants in North America, supported by patented technology and a balance sheet without long-term debt 13.
  • High liquidity that allows the company to bridge slow periods in the order cycle without financing pressure 3.
  • Products made entirely in the United States, giving the company direct control over quality.

Weaknesses

  • The business is seasonal and depends on a few large contracts, which makes quarterly revenue volatile 12.
  • The company identified material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting as of September 30, 2025 1.
  • Trade show expenses reduced profit in the quarter ended March 31, 2026 3.

Opportunities

  • The record backlog at March 31, 2026 gives visibility for coming periods, if it converts into shipments 3.
  • If infrastructure funding is extended, demand for pavers and new plants could increase.
  • Replacement of older plants and a trend toward more efficient plants can support orders over the medium term 1.

Threats

  • The scheduled expiry of the IIJ Act could reduce road funding 12.
  • Higher steel, copper and freight costs, along with trade tariffs, could compress margins 2.
  • Global economic instability and high liquid asphalt prices could delay customer orders 2.

Risks

  • Internal control weaknesseshigh

    Management concluded that internal control over financial reporting was not effective at September 30, 2025, which could affect the accuracy and timeliness of reports 1.

  • IIJ Act expiryhigh

    If the infrastructure law is not renewed, demand for road equipment could fall 12.

  • Dependence on large customersmedium

    Losing a major customer or a drop in its activity could reduce revenue 1.

  • Raw material costs and tariffsmedium

    Higher steel, copper prices and tariffs could reduce margins if they cannot be passed on to customers 2.

  • Volatile quarterly resultsmedium

    Order timing and revenue recognition over time can produce weak quarters 12.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • The record backlog at March 31, 2026 and rising gross margins could support performance into fiscal 2027 32.
  • A balance sheet without debt and significant liquidity give flexibility in weaker periods 3.
  • Leadership in hot mix asphalt plant technology could sustain demand for equipment replacement 1.

What would break the thesis

  • The IIJ Act, scheduled to expire on September 30, 2026, could reduce demand if funding is not continued 12.
  • Internal control was described as ineffective, and remediation could require additional time and resources 1.
  • Revenue fell in the quarter ended March 31, 2026, and trade show expenses reduced profit 3.

What to watch

  • Backlog conversion and new orders after the quarter ended June 30, 2026Q3 2026
  • Status of renewal or replacement of the IIJ infrastructure law2026
  • Remediation of internal control weaknesses reported at September 30, 2025next 10-K
  • Impact of tariffs and raw material costs on gross marginQ1 2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Gencor Industries, Inc. designs, manufactures and sells machinery used mainly for asphalt production and highway construction, along with environmental control equipment 1. Its core products are asphalt pavers, hot mix asphalt plants, combustion systems and fluid heat transfer systems, all manufactured in the United States and sold through company sales representatives and independent dealers 1. The business is seasonal: customers typically order between October and February, with shipments concentrated in late winter and spring 12.

The main demand drivers are government funding for highway construction and repair, the replacement of existing plants and a trend toward larger, more efficient plants 1. At fiscal year-end 2025 the company had 318 full-time employees, and no customer accounted for more than 10% of revenue in fiscal 2025 1.

The company has no long-term debt, and at March 31, 2026 it reported combined cash and marketable securities of 155.1 million dollars, a solid base for a seasonal operating cycle 3.

Segments

Hot mix asphalt plants

Asphalt plants are the company's core product, including the H&B line and counter flow drum mix technology regarded as an industry standard 1. Their demand depends on highway funding and the replacement of existing equipment 1.

Asphalt pavers

Pavers are sold under the Blaw-Knox brand, which dates to 1917, and the company acquired the paver assets of Volvo Construction Equipment North America in 2020 1.

Combustion and fluid heat transfer systems

Its General Combustion subsidiary produces industrial burners and thermal fluid heat transfer systems, which are also used in industries beyond road construction 1.

Market context

The core market is road construction and maintenance in the United States and Canada, where federal and state funding is decisive 1. The market is described as concentrated, with a small number of competitors in most product lines 1.

Quarterly orders and revenue are volatile because of the timing of shipments and the recognition of revenue over time on custom equipment 12.

Trends

  • IIJ Act expiryheadwind

    The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act is scheduled to expire on September 30, 2026, which could reduce demand if funding is not renewed 12.

  • IIJA obligations still reaching statestailwind

    Management noted that remaining IIJA funding obligations continued to flow to states, supporting the record backlog at March 31, 2026 3.

  • Material costs and tariffsheadwind

    Steel and copper prices, along with tariffs introduced by the U.S. administration, could raise costs if they cannot be passed on to customers 2.

  • Margin improvementmixed

    Gross margin rose in recent quarters, to 27.9% in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, suggesting better cost discipline, though it remains sensitive to order volumes 2.

Competitive position

Competition is intense, with the main factors being quality, price, delivery, availability, financing and technological capability 1. The company says it builds the highest quality equipment in the industry and that brand recognition and after-sale technical support matter 1.

Because the market is concentrated, a few large producers hold a significant share of demand in the main lines, and the company's edge rests more on know-how and innovation than on patents alone 1.

  • Competitors not named in the supplied sources

    The sources analysed do not name competitors, so no tickers are proposed.

  • Asphalt plant manufacturers

    The company mentions a small number of competitors in its product lines, without naming them in the documents analysed.

  • Paver manufacturers

    In pavers, competition is described in general terms of quality and brand reputation.

  • Industrial burner suppliers

    In combustion systems, the company compares its products on efficiency and maintenance costs.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 · SEC / Gencor Industries, Inc. · 09 Dec 2025
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Gencor Industries, Inc. · 10 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Gencor Industries, Inc. · 15 Jun 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.