olivLaw · US equity research
AIRO Group Holdings, Inc. AIRO
Aircraft · SIC 3721 · Vertical: Aircraft (SIC 3721)
AIRO Group Holdings is an aerospace and defense platform combining military drones, avionics, pilot training and electric air mobility. In the second quarter of 2026 revenue grew 76% to 43.2 million USD, and the company reiterated 15% to 25% growth for the full year, which could be reached if drone execution holds.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, AIRO Group Holdings, Inc. (AIRO) stock was 5.42 USD (−1.63% on the day), with market capitalisation 171.0 m USD, beta 2.90, 52-week range 4.75–14.20 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 43.2 m USD (+75.9% YoY), net income of -2.0 m USD (−134.0% YoY), diluted EPS -0.06 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 44.1
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 4.55 – 6.13
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.55 · band width 29.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 6.49 / 8.05
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.36 / -0.47
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −16.5% | −1.1% | −15.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −28.8% | −0.5% | −28.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | −27.1% | +4.4% | −31.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | −33.7% | +12.3% | −46.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | −62.0% | +13.5% | −75.6 pp | −52.4% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +76.4% | unavailable | −17.7% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 23.7 m | 39.7 m | 11.8 m | 24.6 m | 6.3 m | 48.3 m | 8.9 m | 43.2 m |
| Cost of revenue | 7.4 m | 12.0 m | 4.9 m | 9.5 m | 3.5 m | 18.6 m | 6.5 m | 15.5 m |
| Gross profit | 16.3 m | 27.8 m | 6.9 m | 15.0 m | 2.8 m | 29.7 m | 2.4 m | 27.7 m |
| Research & development | 3.3 m | 3.6 m | 3.7 m | 4.1 m | 4.1 m | 6.0 m | 6.7 m | 7.6 m |
| Operating income | -30.4 m | 16.1 m | -3.1 m | -19.7 m | -12.0 m | 6.0 m | -17.2 m | 1.7 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 3.1 m ≈ | 3.2 m | 2.8 m | 2.6 m | 3.6 m ≈ | 3.0 m | 2.6 m | 2.6 m |
| Interest expense | — | — | — | 3.9 m | — | 0 | — | — |
| Pre-tax income | -27.9 m | 4.6 m | -1.7 m | 7.9 m | -8.6 m | 5.3 m | -17.1 m | 2.1 m |
| Income tax | 2.4 m | 5.4 m | 287.0 k | 2.1 m | -613.1 k | 5.3 m | -1.6 m | 4.1 m |
| Net income | -30.3 m | -753.9 k | -2.0 m | 5.9 m | -8.0 m | -39.7 k | -15.5 m | -2.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | -1.85 | — | -0.12 | 0.30 | -0.28 | — | -0.49 | -0.06 |
| Operating cash flow | 5.4 m ≈ | 23.9 m | -9.8 m | -21.0 m ≈ | -5.8 m ≈ | 4.1 m | -17.4 m | -31.3 m ≈ |
| Capex | 96.9 k ≈ | 237.9 k | 345.0 k | 722.0 k ≈ | 940.2 k ≈ | 1.1 m | 2.1 m | 2.4 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | — | — | — | — | — | -598.1 k | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 86.9 m | 90.9 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +4.6% |
| Net income | -38.7 m | -4.1 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -2.36 | -0.17 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -44.5% | -4.5% |
| Free cash flow | 20.7 m | -35.5 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 74.6 m USD
- Financial debt
- 1.7 m USD
- Net debt
- -72.9 m USD
- Equity
- 739.2 m USD
- Total assets
- 774.1 m USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.00x
- Current ratio
- 3.45x
- ROE
- -0.6%
- ROA
- -0.6%
- FCF margin
- -39.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 86.9 m | 90.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 28.6 m | 36.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 58.3 m | 54.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Research & development | 13.1 m | 17.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | -17.4 m | -28.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 12.6 m | 12.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -4.8 m ≈ | -16.8 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026derived |
| Interest expense | — | 3.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -29.5 m | 2.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 9.2 m | 7.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -38.7 m | -4.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -2.36 | -0.17 | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 16.4 k | 23.7 k | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 20.9 m | 74.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 8.8 m | 11.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 42.6 m | 106.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 6.8 m | 9.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 557.5 m | 571.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 93.5 m | 83.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 701.0 m | 774.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 6.0 m | 1.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 688.0 k | 500.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 96.6 m | 30.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 152.3 m | 34.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 548.7 m † | 739.2 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 21.5 m | -32.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 789.0 k | 3.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 20.7 m ≈ | -35.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -789.0 k | -3.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -10.6 m | 86.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | 19.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 171.0 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
42% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -2.7% | 80 (vs peers) | 25% |
| Net margin · Quality | -23.9% | 67 (vs peers) | 15% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -5.5x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.9x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -33.3% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 11.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality75/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
AIRO Group Holdings, Inc. (AIRO). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 90.9 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 4.6%; net margin -23.9%; ROE -3.6%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: -2.7%
- Current ratio: 2.9x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 11.4%
What contradicts it
- Interest coverage: -5.5x
- FCF yield: -33.3%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Aircraft (SIC 3721) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 10 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAThe Boeing Company | 140.3 bn | 18.6 | — | 8.1% | +34.5% | −6% / −24% |
| EMBJEmbraer S.A. | 56.8 bn | 163.6 | 10.8% | 4.6% | +18.5% | +25% / +349% |
| AVAVAerovironment, Inc. | 5.8 bn | — | -4.6% | -10.1% | +140.9% | −59% / −18% |
| JOBYJoby Aviation, Inc. | 5.0 bn | — | -65.9% | -755.1% | +39,183.1% | −65% / −15% |
| ACHRArcher Aviation Inc. | 3.2 bn | — | -44.8% | -11,589.9% | unavailable | −47% / −31% |
| BETABETA Technologies, Inc. | 951.1 m | — | -46.8% | -1,007.8% | +136.0% | −7% / unavailable |
| AIROAIRO Group Holdings, Inc. | 171.0 m | — | -3.6% | -23.9% | +4.6% | −62% / unavailable |
| MOBMobilicom Limited | 36.5 m | — | -369.2% | -705.4% | +5.8% | −58% / +115% |
| UAVSAgEagle Aerial Systems Inc. | 21.8 m | — | -106.1% | -276.5% | −4.3% | −74% / −100% |
| DUKRDUKE Robotics Corp. | 11.2 m | — | -66.6% | -611.0% | +249.1% | +1,382% / +3,160% |
| EVTLVertical Aerospace Ltd. | — | — | — | — | +51.7% | −91% / −94% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AIRO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
AIRO Group Holdings is an aerospace and defense platform combining military drones, avionics, pilot training and electric air mobility. In the second quarter of 2026 revenue grew 76% to 43.2 million USD 3, and the company reiterated 15% to 25% growth for the full year, which could be reached if drone execution holds.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
- Revenue depends on a small number of customers, almost all in the drone segment, and orders are not bound by long-term commitments 1.
- The company has reported net losses since its founding and carries a significant accumulated deficit 1.
- The Training segment is capital-intensive, and avionics and training underperformed in the second quarter of 2026 23.
Opportunities
- U.S. government certification of drones could open larger procurements if production stays in the United States 12.
- Developing electric cargo aircraft could create a new market in logistics and government missions if certification succeeds 1.
- Expansion into medical, agricultural and industrial sectors could diversify drone revenue 1.
Threats
- Budget delays or shutdowns of the U.S. federal government could affect orders and payment timing 1.
- Supply difficulties for components from Canada and Europe could delay production and raise costs 1.
- Certification of eVTOL aircraft remains uncertain, and the mobility market could grow more slowly than the company expects 1.
Risks
- Dependence on large customershigh
Two customers accounted for most revenue in fiscal 2025, and losing them could seriously affect results 1.
- No long-term commitmentshigh
Sales are made on purchase order basis, and orders can be cancelled or delayed, making revenue uneven 1.
- Losses and need for capitalmedium
The company expects rising expenses and could need additional capital if revenue does not cover costs 1.
- Internal control weaknessesmedium
The company has identified material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting, and remediation could take time 1.
- Global supply chainlow
Supply disruptions and trade restrictions could raise costs and delay deliveries 12.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
What would break the thesis
- Concentration of revenue in two customers could make results very volatile if they reduce orders 1.
- The company reported a net loss in the second quarter of 2026 and could keep losing money if expenses grow faster than revenue 3.
- Electric aircraft certification is planned for future years and the air mobility market is undefined, which could delay revenue 1.
What to watch
- Delivery against full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance2026
- Decision on the strategic role of the Training segment2026
- Timing of certification for electric cargo aircraft2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
AIRO is organized into four operating segments: Drones, Avionics, Training and Electric Air Mobility 1. The company aims to use its relationships with the U.S. government and NATO countries, along with synergies between segments, to build an integrated platform. The Drones segment generates most revenue, and its target market is estimated at over 315.4 billion USD by 2030 1.
Segments
Avionics
The Avionics segment makes flight displays, Connected Panels and GPS/GNSS sensors for military and general aviation under the Aspen Avionics brand 1. It also supplies OEMs including Robinson Helicopters, Pilatus, Honeywell and Joby Aviation 1. The segment underperformed in the second quarter of 2026, while the Phoenix plant achieved AS9100D certification 23.
Trends
- Rising NATO defense spendingtailwind
The NATO commitment to 5% of GDP by 2035 could support demand for drones and avionics if national budgets translate into purchases 1.
- Commercial adoption of dronestailwind
Agriculture, construction and logistics are increasingly using drones, which could widen the market beyond the military sector 1.
- Delays in training contract awardsheadwind
The Training segment has seen delays in contract awards, reducing near-term revenue visibility 2.
- Concentration in customers and government contractsmixed
Reliance on a few customers and government budgets could make revenue volatile, although recent backlog growth partly offsets this risk 13.
Competitive position
The supplied sources do not name direct competitors. The company says it faces rivals with substantially greater resources, and in general aviation avionics upgrades it competes for fleets seeking to modernize 1.
- Large defense contractors with greater resources
The company states that some competitors have substantially greater resources, without naming them in the sources 1.
- General aviation avionics providers
In avionics upgrades for general aviation fleets, competition comes from other suppliers not identified in the source 1.
- Private military training operators
The Training segment competes for outsourced training contracts, and the private market is growing, with no competitors named in the source 1.
- Other electric eVTOL aircraft developers
The Electric Air Mobility segment competes with other eVTOL configurations, not named in the source 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report13 Aug 2026
- Current report13 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report05 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report14 May 2026
- Current report14 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement21 Apr 2026
- Annual report31 Mar 2026
- Current report31 Mar 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report14 Nov 2025
- Current report14 Nov 2025Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / AIRO Group Holdings, Inc. · 31 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / AIRO Group Holdings, Inc. · 13 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / AIRO Group Holdings, Inc. · 13 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.