olivLaw · US equity research
Mobilicom Ltd MOB
Aircraft · SIC 3721 · Vertical: Aircraft (SIC 3721)
Mobilicom designs software for cybersecurity, communication modules and hardware fitted into small drones and robotic systems, selling mainly to OEM makers in defense and surveillance. The company operates in a market where demand for drone protection is rising, yet its revenues remain small and its net losses are large.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Mobilicom Ltd (MOB) stock was 2.99 USD (+0.00% on the day), with market capitalisation 36.5 m USD, beta 2.21, 52-week range 2.97–9.26 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 30.5
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 2.64 – 3.97
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.26 · band width 40.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 4.26 / 5.44
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.34 / -0.38
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −25.6% | −2.0% | −23.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −46.8% | −2.2% | −44.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | −53.4% | +4.3% | −57.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | −51.0% | +10.6% | −61.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | −54.4% | +10.5% | −64.9 pp | −42.2% |
| 3 years | +109.1% | +73.7% | +35.4 pp | −21.4% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +61.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | 1.6 m | 2.2 m | 3.2 m | 3.4 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +35.7% | +45.0% | +5.8% |
| Net income | unavailable | unavailable | -232.0 k | -4.6 m | -8.0 m | -23.7 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | -0.04 | -0.95 | -1.32 | -2.68 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | -14.3% | -208.1% | -251.9% | -705.4% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | -3.3 m | -4.2 m | -3.2 m | -1.9 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 19.1 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 8.8 m USD
- Total assets
- 20.7 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 8.51x
- ROE
- -369.2%
- ROA
- -150.3%
- FCF margin
- -57.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.6 m | 2.2 m | 3.2 m | 3.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 610.0 k | 902.0 k | 1.3 m | 1.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.0 m ≈ | 1.3 m ≈ | 1.8 m ≈ | 1.8 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026derived |
| Research & development | 1.8 m | 1.9 m | 2.1 m | 4.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 225.7 k | 212.4 k | 220.7 k | 219.3 k | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 10.2 k | 14.7 k | 27.1 k | 9.3 k | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -227.5 k | -4.5 m | -7.8 m | -23.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 9.7 k | 80.9 k | 160.8 k | -74.8 k | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -232.0 k | -4.6 m | -8.0 m | -23.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.04 | -0.95 | -1.32 | -2.68 | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 664.2 m | 4.8 m | 6.1 m | 8.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 12.9 m | 8.4 m | 8.7 m | 19.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 562.7 k | 977.6 k | 949.2 k | 348.1 k | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 569.7 k | 934.8 k | 892.9 k | 740.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 14.0 m | 10.4 m | 10.5 m | 20.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 92.3 k | 80.5 k | 81.4 k | 99.6 k | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 14.4 m | 10.9 m | 10.8 m | 20.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 1.1 m | 1.4 m | 1.2 m | 2.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 2.1 m | 1.6 m | 1.4 m | 2.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 2.3 m | 3.2 m | 6.8 m | 11.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 12.1 m | 7.7 m | 4.0 m | 8.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 2.1 bn | 12.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -3.3 m | -4.2 m | -3.2 m | -1.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 3.2 k | 12.8 k | 26.9 k | 36.6 k | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -3.3 m ≈ | -4.2 m ≈ | -3.2 m ≈ | -1.9 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -3.2 k | -12.8 k | -26.9 k | -36.6 k | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 13.3 m | -271.6 k | 3.5 m | 12.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 36.5 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
27% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -705.4% | 33 (vs peers) | 23% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 27.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 31% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 8.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -5.3% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 31% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial33/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Mobilicom Limited (MOB). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.4 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 5.8%; net margin -705.4%; ROE -369.2%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 27.7%
- Current ratio: 8.5x
What contradicts it
- FCF yield: -5.3%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Aircraft (SIC 3721) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 10 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAThe Boeing Company | 137.3 bn | 18.2 | — | 8.1% | +34.5% | −8% / −25% |
| EMBJEmbraer S.A. | 56.8 bn | 163.6 | 10.8% | 4.6% | +18.5% | +25% / +349% |
| AVAVAerovironment, Inc. | 5.8 bn | — | -4.6% | -10.1% | +140.9% | −59% / −18% |
| JOBYJoby Aviation, Inc. | 5.0 bn | — | -65.9% | -755.1% | +39,183.1% | −65% / −15% |
| ACHRArcher Aviation Inc. | 3.2 bn | — | -44.8% | -11,589.9% | unavailable | −47% / −31% |
| BETABETA Technologies, Inc. | 951.1 m | — | -46.8% | -1,007.8% | +136.0% | −7% / unavailable |
| AIROAIRO Group Holdings, Inc. | 171.0 m | — | -3.6% | -23.9% | +4.6% | −37% / unavailable |
| MOBMobilicom Limited | 36.5 m | — | -369.2% | -705.4% | +5.8% | −54% / +109% |
| UAVSAgEagle Aerial Systems Inc. | 21.8 m | — | -106.1% | -276.5% | −4.3% | −74% / −100% |
| DUKRDUKE Robotics Corp. | 11.2 m | — | -66.6% | -611.0% | +249.1% | +1,382% / +3,160% |
| EVTLVertical Aerospace Ltd. | — | — | — | — | +51.7% | −91% / −94% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MOB from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 23 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (13 Oct 2026), 6-K (14 Sept 2026), 6-K (17 Aug 2026), 6-K (13 Aug 2026), 6-K (05 Aug 2026), 6-K (30 Jul 2026).
In brief
Mobilicom designs software for cybersecurity, communication modules and hardware fitted into small drones and robotic systems, selling mainly to OEM makers in defense and surveillance. The company operates in a market where demand for drone protection is rising, yet its revenues remain small and its net losses are large 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company holds patented technology and in-house know-how that let it design its full product range 1.
- Its customer base includes Tier-1 SUAV manufacturers, and orders from them have grown amid current conflicts 1.
- The offering spans hardware, cybersecurity software, cloud management and services, allowing cross-selling to existing customers 1.
Weaknesses
- Revenue is small relative to research, sales and administrative spending, and the company has not yet reached positive operating cash flow 1.
- The 2025 net loss was heavily influenced by non-cash items linked to financial liabilities and share-based compensation, which complicates reading operating performance 1.
- Reliance on equity financing and government grants could expose the company to dilution and uncertain funding terms 1.
Opportunities
- The drone cybersecurity and robotics cybersecurity markets are projected to grow fast, which could support revenue expansion 1.
- Expanding into commercial segments using defense experience could open new revenue sources 1.
- Software subscription or annual license models could create recurring revenue if adopted successfully 1.
Threats
- Competition in smart drone solutions is intense and changing quickly, which could reduce market share 1.
- Export restrictions and the need for government authorizations can limit sales to some countries 1.
- Currency fluctuations among the US dollar, the Israeli shekel and the Australian dollar can affect results and cash flow 1.
Risks
- Recurring losses and the need for capitalhigh
The company has not become profitable and has reported net losses every year since inception. If additional financing is not obtained on acceptable terms, product development could be delayed or reduced 1.
- Dependence on grant fundingmedium
Part of research and development relies on funding from the Israeli Innovation Authority. Reductions in that funding could affect operations and results 1.
- Currency exposuremedium
Revenues and expenses are denominated in several currencies, and exchange-rate moves can affect earnings and cash flow, with no systematic hedging currently in place 1.
- Geopolitical and operational risk in Israelmedium
Political, economic and military instability in Israel, along with military service obligations of personnel, could disrupt operations 1.
- Dependence on components and third partieslow
Manufacturing is outsourced and components could become scarce, which could delay deliveries, although the company refers to alternative sources 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for drone and robotics protection keeps rising, the company could convert growing orders into larger revenue and recurring software sales.
- Its stated end-to-end positioning, Tier-1 customer base and defense experience could ease expansion into commercial segments.
- If gross margins stabilize and spending is controlled, operations could move closer to breakeven over time.
What would break the thesis
- Revenue is still very small relative to losses, and the company could remain dependent on external financing for a long period.
- Gross margin declined in 2025, and spending could keep outpacing revenue if commercial expansion is delayed.
- Intense competition and export restrictions could limit market share and sales to international customers.
What to watch
- Revenue and gross margin trend compared with fiscal 2025next 10-K
- Cash position and need for additional financing2027
- Software and cybersecurity revenue compared with hardware revenue2027
- Growth of orders from Tier-1 customers and entry into new marketsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 23 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (13 Oct 2026), 6-K (14 Sept 2026), 6-K (17 Aug 2026), 6-K (13 Aug 2026), 6-K (05 Aug 2026), 6-K (30 Jul 2026).
The business
Mobilicom Ltd is a provider of software and cybersecurity solutions and of hardware products that it designs, develops and manufactures, embedded in small drones (SUAVs) and robotic systems 1. The company aims to become an end-to-end provider for OEMs selling into security, infrastructure inspection, defense and government segments 1. In fiscal 2025 revenue was 3.36 million USD, up 6% on the prior year, and gross margin fell to 53% 1.
Historically the company generated most of its revenue from hardware, while sales of its cloud software and cybersecurity solutions have only recently started 1. Products are developed entirely in-house based on patented technology and know-how, while manufacturing is outsourced to third parties with final assembly done in-house or by contractors 1. The operational headquarters is in Israel and the company is incorporated in Australia, with its shares trading on Nasdaq since December 2025 1.
Customers include, according to the company, eight Tier-1 SUAV manufacturers and over 50 customers in 18 countries, among them Israel Aerospace Industries, Airbus and Teledyne-Flir 1. The 23.7 million USD net loss for 2025 was driven largely by non-cash items linked to warrant and financial liability fair value changes and share-based compensation, showing that current revenues do not cover running costs 1.
Segments
Software and cybersecurity
The OS3 platform, comprising OS3 Edge and OS3 Cloud, and the ICE Cybersecurity Suite are software products that protect drones and robotic fleets from external threats, internal defects and compliance gaps 1. The ICE suite has begun initial sales and delivery to the Israeli Ministry of Defense, and a cooperation agreement with Palladyne AI covers joint autonomy offerings 1.
Communication modules and mesh networking
The SkyHopper datalink family and the MCU mesh networking family provide line-of-sight, non-line-of-sight and urban communication with a focus on redundancy and drone fleet operations 1. These hardware products still account for most of the company's historical sales 1.
Market context
The company operates in the SUAV market, which it expects to grow at a 12.4% compound annual rate to 2030, when it could reach 27.1 billion USD 1. The drone cybersecurity market was about 2.2 billion USD in 2023 and could reach about 11 billion USD by 2032, while the cybersecurity in robotics market could grow from 4.7 billion USD in 2025 to 14.3 billion USD by 2035 1.
Trends
- Drone warfare in Ukraine and the Middle Easttailwind
Current conflicts involve intensive use of drones for reconnaissance and attack, and the company has seen more orders from new and existing customers, which could accelerate demand for its cybersecurity products 1.
- Cyber-attacks on dronestailwind
Attacks targeting drones and their communication channels make cybersecurity a growing requirement for customers, supporting the company's offering 1.
- Easing regulation and automationtailwind
Easier regulatory restrictions and greater drone automation are widening commercial and civil uses, which could broaden the customer base 1.
- Regulatory and export obligationsheadwind
Obtaining required approvals and government export authorizations can prevent shipments of some products to certain countries, which is a constraint 1.
Competitive position
The smart solutions market for SUAVs and robotics is described by the company as intensely competitive, with rapid change and constant innovation 1. Mobilicom identifies three types of competition, including companies that, like it, seek to become end-to-end providers of components and systems 1.
The company regards UXV Technologies as a key competitor in the end-to-end segment, while the other competitor categories are described in the annual report without further detail here 1. The company's stated advantage is its near end-to-end solution and integrated cybersecurity approach 1.
- UXV Technologies
Regarded by the company as a key competitor among end-to-end technology providers for the SUAV and robotics market 1.
- Other drone component suppliers
Companies offering separate components for drones and robotics that OEM customers can combine with their own systems 1.
- Drone cybersecurity solution providers
Companies specialized in protecting drones and their communication channels, active in the drone cybersecurity market 1.
- Drone management software providers
Companies offering cloud management platforms for drone operators, competing with CONTROLiT 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)13 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)14 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)17 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)13 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)05 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)20 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)11 May 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Mobilicom Ltd · 23 Mar 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.