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olivLaw · US equity research

AeroVironment, Inc. AVAV

Aircraft · SIC 3721 · Vertical: Aircraft (SIC 3721)

113.23USD−8.34% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

AeroVironment (AVAV) is a defense technology provider developing autonomous systems, precision strike, counter-drone defense and space, cyber and directed energy capabilities. The company matters now because demand for autonomous systems is growing, and its first quarter fiscal 2027 revenue reached a record of million USD, with a funded backlog of billion USD.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) stock was 113.23 USD (−8.34% on the day), with market capitalisation 5.8 bn USD, beta 1.42, 52-week range 113.23–392.86 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q1 2027): revenue of 480.5 m USD (+5.7% YoY), net income of -5.1 m USD, diluted EPS -0.10 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
5.8 bn USD
shares as of 03 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -4.08 · TTM to 01 Aug 2026
E/P (TTM)
-3.60%
TTM to 01 Aug 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.42
Volatility (1y) 75%
52-week range
113.23392.86

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
33.3
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
111.58 – 137.61
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.06 · band width 20.9%
SMA 50 / 200
139.23 / 181.70
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-5.41 / -5.89
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−18.7%−2.0%−16.7 pp—
3 months−32.6%−2.2%−30.5 pp—
6 months−35.1%+4.3%−39.3 pp—
Year to date−53.2%+10.6%−63.8 pp—
1 year−69.0%+10.5%−79.4 pp−42.2%
3 years−5.5%+73.7%−79.2 pp−20.2%
5 years+19.0%+61.7%−42.7 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−71.2%
16 Jan 2026 → 04 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−72.4%
13 Oct 2025 → 04 Nov 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
+3.5%
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q1 2027 · 01 Aug 2026

Revenue
480.5 m USD
+5.7% YoY
Net income
-5.1 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.10
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-1.1% / -2.3%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26Q4 '26Q1 '27
Revenue188.5 m167.6 m275.1 m454.7 m472.5 m408.0 m641.6 m480.5 m
Cost of revenue114.8 m104.4 m174.7 m359.6 m368.4 m309.3 m439.0 m355.9 m
Gross profit73.6 m63.2 m100.3 m95.1 m104.1 m98.8 m202.6 m124.6 m
Research & development28.7 m22.5 m24.9 m33.1 m36.0 m27.1 m31.5 m24.0 m
SG&A37.9 m43.8 m43.3 m131.3 m98.3 m99.4 m114.2 m111.5 m
Operating income7.0 m-3.1 m13.8 m-69.3 m-30.2 m-268.4 m56.9 m-10.9 m
Depreciation & amortisation9.0 m9.3 m13.9 m90.3 m58.1 m54.6 m62.1 m56.0 m
Pre-tax income6.3 m-2.4 m17.9 m-84.3 m-20.6 m-265.1 m81.9 m-7.3 m
Income tax-221.0 k-605.0 k223.0 k-15.2 m-2.3 m-21.6 m16.0 m-397.0 k
Net income7.5 m-1.8 m16.7 m-67.4 m-17.1 m-243.8 m63.2 m-5.1 m
Diluted EPS0.27-0.060.59 ≈-1.44-0.34-4.901.26 ≈-0.10
Operating cash flow-3.6 m ≈-25.8 m ≈-264.0 k-123.7 m-45.1 m ≈-5.1 m ≈95.5 m13.5 m
Capex5.0 m ≈3.8 m ≈5.3 m22.7 m10.8 m ≈12.6 m ≈16.4 m44.0 m

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20192020202120222023202420252026
Revenue314.3 m367.3 m394.9 m445.7 m540.5 m716.7 m820.6 m2.0 bn
Revenue YoY+15.9%+16.9%+7.5%+12.9%+21.3%+32.6%+14.5%+140.9%
Net income47.4 m41.1 m23.3 m-4.2 m-176.2 m59.7 m43.6 m-265.1 m
Net income YoY+168.7%−13.4%−43.2%−117.9%unavailableunavailable−26.9%−707.8%
Diluted EPS1.971.710.96-0.17-7.042.181.55-5.40
Diluted EPS YoY+162.7%−13.2%−43.9%−117.7%unavailableunavailable−28.9%−448.4%
net %15.1%11.2%5.9%-0.9%-32.6%8.3%5.3%-13.4%
Free cash flowunavailable13.9 m75.3 m-31.9 m-3.5 m-7.7 m-20.9 m-140.9 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2026 · 30 Apr 2026

Cash
377.3 m USD
Financial debt
729.0 m USD
Net debt
351.6 m USD
Equity
4.4 bn USD
Total assets
5.7 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.17x
Current ratio
4.30x
ROE
-10.0%
ROA
-7.8%
FCF margin
-7.1%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2024
716.7 m
2025
820.6 m
2026
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2024
432.8 m
2025
502.0 m
2026
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

Gross profit
2024
283.9 m
2025
318.6 m
2026
500.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

Research & development
2024
97.7 m
2025
100.7 m
2026
127.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

SG&A
2024
114.4 m
2025
158.8 m
2026
443.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

Operating income
2024
71.8 m
2025
40.8 m
2026
-311.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2024
35.7 m
2025
41.0 m
2026
265.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

EBITDA
2024
107.6 m ≈
2025
81.8 m ≈
2026
-46.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026derived

Interest expense
2024
—
2025
—
2026
24.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2024
61.6 m
2025
44.5 m
2026
-288.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

Income tax
2024
1.9 m
2025
882.0 k
2026
-23.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

Net income
2024
59.7 m
2025
43.6 m
2026
-265.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2024
2.18
2025
1.55
2026
-5.40

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2024
27.3 m
2025
28.2 m
2026
49.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2024
73.3 m
2025
40.9 m
2026
377.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

Receivables
2024
70.3 m
2025
102.0 m
2026
316.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

Inventories
2024
150.2 m
2025
144.1 m
2026
312.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

Current assets
2024
515.6 m
2025
606.5 m
2026
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2024
46.6 m
2025
50.7 m
2026
166.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

Goodwill
2024
275.7 m
2025
256.8 m
2026
2.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2024
72.2 m
2025
48.7 m
2026
929.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

Total assets
2024
1.0 bn
2025
1.1 bn
2026
5.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

Accounts payable
2024
48.3 m
2025
72.5 m
2026
160.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

Short-term debt
2024
10.0 m
2025
—
2026
—

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jun 2024verified

Long-term debt
2024
17.1 m
2025
30.0 m
2026
729.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

Current liabilities
2024
144.9 m
2025
172.2 m
2026
439.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

Equity
2024
822.7 m
2025
886.5 m
2026
4.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2024
15.3 m
2025
-1.3 m
2026
-78.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

Capex
2024
23.0 m
2025
19.5 m
2026
62.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

Free cash flow
2024
-7.7 m ≈
2025
-20.9 m ≈
2026
-140.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2024
-51.7 m
2025
-28.5 m
2026
-1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2024
-22.9 m
2025
-2.9 m
2026
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jun 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
140.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue CAGR 3Y
54.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Revenue CAGR 5Y
38.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EBIT growth (YoY)
-862.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income growth (YoY)
-707.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-448.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
26.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
EBITDA margin
-1.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
EBIT margin
-12.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Net margin
-10.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
FCF margin
-1.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026

Returns

ROE
-4.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
ROA
-3.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
ROIC
-4.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
ROCE
-4.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
451.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
Debt / equity
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Interest coverage
-10.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
4.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Quick ratio
3.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Cash ratio
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
58.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Capital expenditure
83.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Free cash flow
-25.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
insufficient data

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
35 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Days inventory outstanding
80 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Days payables outstanding
33 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Cash conversion cycle
82 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
5.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Enterprise value
6.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-3.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
P/B
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
P/S
2.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
3.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-0.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

Risk

Altman Z
unavailable
input data missing

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

113.23 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 5.8 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
5.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
ROE
-4.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Net margin
-10.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
140.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

32/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2026
Latest reported period: 01 Aug 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 01 Aug 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 03 Sept 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 10 Sept 2026
verified 2332derived 175

Score by group

44% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Aircraft (SIC 3721)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality-4.6%60 (vs peers)24%
Net margin · Quality-10.1%78 (vs peers)14%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth54.1%100 (on a fixed band)19%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet-10.4x0 (on a fixed band)14%
Current ratio · Balance sheet4.3x100 (on a fixed band)10%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-0.4%0 (on a fixed band)19%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality67/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

AEROVIRONMENT, INC. (AVAV). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-08-01.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.0 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 140.9%; net margin -10.1%; ROE -4.6%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: -10.1%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 54.1%
  • Current ratio: 4.3x

What contradicts it

  • Interest coverage: -10.4x
  • FCF yield: -0.4%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Aircraft (SIC 3721) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 10 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median —
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
2.9x
vertical median 10.9x
below median (−73.5%)
P/B
1.3x
vertical median 1.7x
below median (−22.1%)
ROE
-4.6%
vertical median -56.4%
above median
Net margin
-10.1%
vertical median -611.0%
above median
EBIT margin
-12.6%
vertical median -398.9%
above median
Revenue YoY
140.9%
vertical median 34.5%
above median (+308.4%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
Dividend yield
—
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
BAThe Boeing Company137.3 bn18.2—8.1%+34.5%−8% / −25%
EMBJEmbraer S.A.56.8 bn163.610.8%4.6%+18.5%+25% / +349%
AVAVAerovironment, Inc.5.8 bn—-4.6%-10.1%+140.9%−69% / −5%
JOBYJoby Aviation, Inc.5.0 bn—-65.9%-755.1%+39,183.1%−65% / −15%
ACHRArcher Aviation Inc.3.2 bn—-44.8%-11,589.9%unavailable−47% / −31%
BETABETA Technologies, Inc.951.1 m—-46.8%-1,007.8%+136.0%−7% / unavailable
AIROAIRO Group Holdings, Inc.171.0 m—-3.6%-23.9%+4.6%−37% / unavailable
MOBMobilicom Limited36.5 m—-369.2%-705.4%+5.8%−58% / +115%
UAVSAgEagle Aerial Systems Inc.21.8 m—-106.1%-276.5%−4.3%−74% / −100%
DUKRDUKE Robotics Corp.11.2 m—-66.6%-611.0%+249.1%+1,382% / +3,160%
EVTLVertical Aerospace Ltd.————+51.7%−91% / −94%

1- and 3-year price returns: for AVAV from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    AeroVironment (AVAV) is a defense technology provider developing autonomous systems, precision strike, counter-drone defense and space, cyber and directed energy capabilities. The company matters now because demand for autonomous systems is growing, and its first quarter fiscal 2027 revenue reached a record of 1 million USD, with a funded backlog of 2 billion USD.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • A broad portfolio of autonomous and defense systems spanning several domains, with a growing base of funded orders.
    • Decades of accumulated technology experience and rapid innovation capacity, supported by an active research and development structure.
    • International presence through production and sales to allies, which partly diversifies dependence on the U.S. market.

    Weaknesses

    • Heavy dependence on the federal government and the Department of Defense, which makes revenue sensitive to budgets and political decisions.
    • A significant goodwill impairment in the space unit shows the risk tied to acquisitions and interrupted contracts.
    • High amortization and acquisition costs that weighed on operating margins in the past, although the trend has improved.

    Opportunities

    • Expansion of autonomous systems and counter-drone defense to allied armed forces and possibly commercial customers.
    • Integration of AI software across products could create recurring revenue and opportunities in mission command and control.

    Threats

    • Budget cuts or delays in federal fund allocation could slow contracts and revenue.
    • Large, well-funded competitors could win contracts through superior resources and established relationships.
    • Rapid technological change could make existing products obsolete, and some investments may not generate revenue.

    Risks

    • Dependence on the U.S. governmenthigh

      Most revenue comes from the government, and contracts can be terminated at its discretion, making results vulnerable to political change.

    • Goodwill impairmenthigh

      The space unit recorded a significant impairment after a contract was halted, and the company says the risk of further unfavorable testing has increased.

    • Delays in fund allocationmedium

      The annual budget process and possible government shutdowns could delay payments and new contracts.

    • Supply chain and production capacitymedium

      Shortages of components or raw materials could delay deliveries, and expanding capacity requires investment and time.

    • Debt and integration costsmedium

      Borrowings taken for the BlueHalo acquisition could limit financial flexibility, and integrating acquisitions can strain management.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If demand for autonomous systems and counter-drone defense keeps growing, the funded order book could support revenue growth.
    • Improved gross margin in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 suggests that lower amortization and acquisition costs could support results.
    • New product launches and AI software integration could open additional revenue sources if programs move into production.

    What would break the thesis

    • Heavy dependence on the U.S. government budget could make revenue sensitive to cuts and funding delays.
    • The goodwill impairment in the space unit shows that some acquisitions and contracts may underperform expectations.
    • Competition from large, well-funded contractors could limit new contract wins and pressure margins.

    What to watch

    • Delivery against revenue guidance of 2.125 to 2.225 billion USDfiscal 2027
    • Development of funded backlog and the book-to-bill ratioQ2 2027
    • Testing of goodwill in the space reporting unitfiscal 2027 annual test

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    AeroVironment presents itself as an integrated defense technology provider delivering capabilities across air, land, sea, space and cyber. Its portfolio includes Group 1-3 uncrewed aircraft systems, precision strike systems such as the Switchblade family and Red Dragon, counter-UAS defenses and electronic warfare systems. The company also cites the AV_Halo command and control software and uncrewed maritime and ground divisions, while the SCDE segment covers space technology, laser directed energy and cyber operations that came with the BlueHalo acquisition 1.

    The company describes a strategy of expanding penetration of existing products, launching new solutions through internally funded research and development, and acquiring differentiated solutions developed by others 1. It states that agility and the ability to respond quickly to customer needs are its main differentiators against competitors with greater resources 1.

    Its reporting structure changed from May 1, 2025, when it began operating two segments: Autonomous Systems (AxS) and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy (SCDE), following the BlueHalo acquisition 1. Its main customers are the U.S. Department of Defense and government agencies, and most contracts are fixed-price or cost-plus-fee 1.

    Segments

    Autonomous Systems (AxS)

    The AxS segment includes Group 1-3 uncrewed aircraft systems, precision strike systems such as Switchblade and Red Dragon, integrated air and missile defense, electronic warfare, and uncrewed maritime and ground systems. In the first quarter of fiscal 2027 the segment generated revenue of 3 million USD 3.

    Trends

    • Hostile drone threats and counter-UAS demandtailwind

      The spread of hostile drones increases demand for detection and defeat systems such as Titan and the FE-1 interceptor, which the company names as new product lines 1.

    • U.S. budget uncertaintyheadwind

      Reduced federal spending, delays in fund release and possible government shutdowns could postpone contracts, and the company warns that funding depends on annual appropriations 1.

    • Production and supply chain pressuremixed

      The company says expanding manufacturing capacity and reducing costs are essential to remain competitive, and component shortages could delay deliveries 13.

    Competitive position

    The company frames its position through agility and differentiated solutions, against large, well-funded competitors that may hold advantages in scope, scale, resources and relationships 1. The sources given do not name direct competitors, so these cannot be detailed here.

    Competitive risk also rises from the rapid pace of technological change, which could make existing products obsolete, and from research spending that may never produce revenue 1.

    • Large defense prime contractors

      The company refers to large, well-funded or incumbent competitors without naming them in the sources provided.

    • Counter-drone defense suppliers

      Competition in the C-UAS area is implied by the product descriptions, without company names in the sources provided.

    • Space technology and communications companies

      The SCDE segment operates in fields where other suppliers exist, but the sources do not list them.

    • Defense AI software developers

      The AV_Halo platform competes with command and control software offerings, without identification in the sources provided.

    News & filings

    In the press

    SEC filings

    • Current report30 Sept 2026
      Shareholder vote
    • Quarterly report10 Sept 2026
    • Current report09 Sept 2026
      Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Proxy statement14 Aug 2026
    • Current report07 Aug 2026
      Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report29 Jul 2026
      Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Annual report29 Jun 2026
    • Current report29 Jun 2026
      Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report25 Jun 2026
      Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report22 Jun 2026
      Non-reliance on financial statements · Departure or appointment of officers

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-04-30 · SEC / AeroVironment, Inc. · 29 Jun 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-08-01 · SEC / AeroVironment, Inc. · 10 Sept 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / AeroVironment, Inc. · 09 Sept 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.