olivLaw · US equity research
Align Technology, Inc. ALGN
Orthopedic, Prosthetic & Surgical Appliances & Supplies · SIC 3842 · Vertical: Orthopedic, Prosthetic & Surgical Appliances & Supplies (SIC 3842)
Align Technology is a global medical device company that makes Invisalign clear aligners, iTero intraoral scanners and the exocad CAD/CAM software for orthodontics and restorative dentistry. The clear aligner business dominates its revenue, and in the second quarter of 2026 total revenues reached a record of 1.06 billion USD.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) stock was 164.90 USD (+8.79% on the day), with market capitalisation 11.6 bn USD, P/E 24.0 on diluted EPS of 6.87 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.32, 52-week range 132.28–197.51 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.0 bn USD (+1.9% YoY), net income of 135.0 m USD (+138.0% YoY), diluted EPS 1.90 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 67.4
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 138.80 – 161.37
- above the upper band · %B 1.16 · band width 15.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 150.23 / 168.63
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 2.07 / 0.80
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +17.2% | −1.1% | +18.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −5.7% | −0.5% | −5.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −5.2% | +4.4% | −9.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +5.6% | +12.3% | −6.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +21.5% | +13.5% | +8.0 pp | −2.5% |
| 3 years | −16.5% | +76.4% | −92.9 pp | −0.2% |
| 5 years | −76.0% | +63.7% | −139.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 995.2 m | 979.3 m | 1.0 bn | 995.7 m | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 298.3 m | 299.2 m | 304.3 m | 356.5 m | 364.0 m | 303.5 m | 298.8 m | 317.3 m |
| Gross profit | 696.9 m | 680.1 m | 708.1 m | 639.2 m | 683.6 m | 736.6 m | 757.4 m | 697.5 m |
| Research & development | 94.9 m | 97.2 m | 96.4 m | 93.3 m | 83.0 m | 98.7 m | 102.0 m | 93.9 m |
| SG&A | 425.0 m | 447.6 m | 448.7 m | 417.8 m | 441.7 m | 465.3 m | 462.7 m | 410.6 m |
| Operating income | 144.1 m | 131.1 m | 163.0 m | 96.3 m | 155.3 m | 142.0 m | 154.0 m | 169.2 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 38.1 m | 39.1 m | 40.6 m | 55.7 m | 102.0 m | 56.5 m | 40.1 m | 39.4 m |
| Pre-tax income | 140.8 m | 140.4 m | 173.5 m | 94.7 m | 176.6 m | 148.9 m | 148.7 m | 170.1 m |
| Income tax | 37.0 m | 47.2 m | 48.9 m | 38.0 m | 40.8 m | 36.1 m | 40.4 m | 35.0 m |
| Net income | 103.8 m | 93.2 m | 124.6 m | 56.8 m | 135.8 m | 112.8 m | 108.3 m | 135.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.39 ≈ | 1.27 | 1.72 | 0.78 | 1.89 ≈ | 1.57 | 1.51 | 1.90 |
| Operating cash flow | 286.1 m | 52.7 m | 128.7 m ≈ | 188.7 m ≈ | 223.2 m | 151.0 m | 192.8 m ≈ | 182.9 m ≈ |
| Capex | 23.0 m | 25.3 m | 21.5 m ≈ | 19.8 m ≈ | 35.9 m | 30.8 m | 35.7 m ≈ | 45.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 202.9 m | 201.1 m | 96.0 m ≈ | 71.6 m ≈ | 97.2 m | 31.2 m | 66.9 m ≈ | 103.1 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 13 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 7.3, median 44.6, max 102.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.5 bn | 4.0 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +33.5% | +22.4% | +2.7% | +59.9% | −5.5% | +3.4% | +3.5% | +0.9% |
| Net income | 400.2 m | 442.8 m | 1.8 bn | 772.0 m | 361.6 m | 445.1 m | 421.4 m | 410.4 m |
| Net income YoY | +72.9% | +10.6% | +301.1% | −56.5% | −53.2% | +23.1% | −5.3% | −2.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 4.92 | 5.53 | 22.41 | 9.69 | 4.61 | 5.81 | 5.62 | 5.65 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +73.9% | +12.4% | +305.2% | −56.8% | −52.4% | +26.0% | −3.3% | +0.5% |
| net % | 20.4% | 18.4% | 71.8% | 19.5% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 10.2% |
| Free cash flow | 331.4 m | 597.6 m | 507.3 m | 771.4 m | 276.8 m | 608.1 m | 622.7 m | 490.8 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.1 bn USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 4.0 bn USD
- Total assets
- 6.2 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.36x
- ROE
- 10.4%
- ROA
- 6.6%
- FCF margin
- 12.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.5 bn | 4.0 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 708.7 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.8 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 175.3 m | 250.3 m | 305.3 m | 346.8 m | 364.2 m | 369.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 1.2 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 387.2 m | 976.4 m | 642.6 m | 643.3 m | 607.6 m | 545.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 93.5 m | 108.7 m | 125.8 m | 142.4 m | 145.0 m | 237.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 480.7 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 768.4 m ≈ | 785.7 m ≈ | 752.7 m ≈ | 783.2 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | 378.9 m | 1.0 bn | 599.1 m | 641.2 m | 609.0 m | 585.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -1.4 bn | 240.4 m | 237.5 m | 196.2 m | 187.6 m | 174.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 1.8 bn | 772.0 m | 361.6 m | 445.1 m | 421.4 m | 410.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 22.41 | 9.69 | 4.61 | 5.81 | 5.62 | 5.65 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 79.2 m | 79.7 m | 78.4 m | 76.6 m | 75.0 m | 72.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 960.8 m | 1.1 bn | 942.1 m | 937.4 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 657.7 m | 897.2 m | 859.7 m | 903.4 m | 995.7 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 139.2 m | 230.2 m | 338.8 m | 296.9 m | 254.3 m | 226.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.8 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 734.7 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 444.8 m | 418.5 m | 407.6 m | 419.5 m | 442.6 m | 491.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 130.1 m | 109.7 m | 95.7 m | 82.1 m | 103.5 m | 93.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 4.8 bn | 5.9 bn | 5.9 bn | 6.1 bn | 6.2 bn | 6.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 142.1 m | 163.9 m | 127.9 m | 113.1 m | 108.7 m | 121.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.3 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.6 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 3.2 bn † | 3.6 bn † | 3.6 bn † | 3.6 bn † | 3.9 bn † | 4.0 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 662.2 m | 1.2 bn | 568.7 m | 785.8 m | 738.2 m | 593.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 154.9 m | 401.1 m | 291.9 m | 177.7 m | 115.6 m | 102.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 507.3 m ≈ | 771.4 m ≈ | 276.8 m ≈ | 608.1 m ≈ | 622.7 m ≈ | 490.8 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -231.5 m | -563.4 m | -213.3 m | -195.9 m | -254.9 m | -112.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -30.8 m | -458.3 m | -501.7 m | -598.3 m | -355.7 m | -464.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 375.0 m | 435.0 m | 592.4 m | 352.9 m | 465.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 11.6 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
58% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 182.81 – 330.33 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E182.81 – 330.33 (Mid 219.47)8 companies used · median multiple 31.9x · quartiles 26.6x – 48.1xAPT, CDRE, EW, ISRG, MSA, SNN, STE, ZBH
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 11.8% | 82 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 122.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 2.6% | 22 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 7.0% | 47 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 52 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 24.0x | 78 (vs peers) | 18% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 5.2% | 65 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.6% | 37 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial52/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth34/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality91/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial37/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation72/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ALIGN TECHNOLOGY, INC. (ALGN). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.0 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 0.9%; net margin 11.8%; ROE 11.9%.
The estimated value range is 182.81–330.33 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 219.47 USD, the price of 164.90 USD leaves a potential of 33.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 24.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 11.8%
- FCF conversion: 122.5%
- P/E (TTM): 24.0x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 2.6%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Orthopedic, Prosthetic & Surgical Appliances & Supplies (SIC 3842) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 23 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISRGIntuitive Surgical, Inc. | 167.1 bn | 58.3 | 18.0% | 25.5% | +20.5% | −16% / +55% |
| EWEdwards Lifesciences Corporation | 57.1 bn | 56.2 | 9.7% | 15.3% | +11.5% | +15% / +47% |
| SNNSmith & Nephew plc | 28.5 bn | 45.3 | 11.8% | 10.1% | +6.1% | −2% / +25% |
| STESTERIS plc | 24.2 bn | 30.0 | 11.4% | 13.3% | +8.7% | −7% / +23% |
| ZBHZimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | 20.8 bn | 27.9 | 6.0% | 9.0% | +7.2% | +13% / −5% |
| ALGNAlign Technology, Inc. | 11.6 bn | 24.0 | 11.9% | 11.8% | +0.9% | +22% / −16% |
| MSAMsa Safety Inc | 6.8 bn | 22.8 | 22.1% | 15.0% | +3.7% | +10% / +2% |
| ESTAEstablishment Labs Holdings Inc. | 2.0 bn | — | -175.3% | -15.8% | +27.1% | −3% / +161% |
| ENOVEnovis Corp | 1.4 bn | — | -54.3% | -48.0% | +6.7% | −19% / −51% |
| CDRECadre Holdings, Inc. | 1.3 bn | 33.8 | 11.6% | 5.6% | +7.5% | −28% / −4% |
| AVRAnteris Technologies Global Corp. | 596.4 m | — | -75.1% | -4,619.3% | −29.2% | +49% / unavailable |
| COCHEnvoy Medical, Inc. | 549.6 m | — | — | -11,304.8% | +7.1% | +749% / +216% |
| ZJYLJin Medical International Ltd. | 483.7 m | 309.0 | 4.1% | 5.8% | −12.0% | −39% / −87% |
| SMTISanara Medtech Inc. | 297.0 m | — | -147.7% | -29.2% | +19.0% | +55% / −0% |
| INGNInogen, Inc. | 191.6 m | — | -13.1% | -6.9% | +3.9% | +2% / +24% |
| LAKELakeland Industries, Inc. | 88.7 m | — | -19.6% | -14.0% | +15.2% | −41% / −39% |
| NTRBNutriband Inc. | 73.9 m | — | -100.7% | -430.4% | −4.8% | +23% / +140% |
| APTAlpha Pro Tech, Ltd. | 58.6 m | 14.1 | 6.6% | 6.8% | +2.3% | +25% / +17% |
| CLGNCollPlant Biotechnologies Ltd | 54.2 m | — | -117.6% | -484.6% | +360.4% | −81% / −92% |
| MYOMyomo, Inc. | 51.5 m | — | -123.8% | -33.5% | +25.7% | +46% / −58% |
| MLSSMilestone Scientific Inc. | 29.2 m | — | -121.7% | -44.0% | +4.0% | +6% / −61% |
| LFWDLifeward Ltd. | 17.2 m | — | -225.6% | -141.3% | −14.1% | −13% / −90% |
| CUPRCuprina Holdings (Cayman) Limited | 14.1 m | — | -1,115.0% | -9,366.7% | +9.2% | −64% / unavailable |
| BBLGBone Biologics Corporation | 1.2 m | — | -47.5% | — | 0.0% | −77% / −98% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ALGN from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 97.09 Total return -41% · Per year -41% | 171.80 Total return 4% · Per year 4% | 258.99 Total return 57% · Per year 57% |
| 3 years | 90.68 Total return -45% · Per year -18% | 180.89 Total return 10% · Per year 3% | 299.92 Total return 82% · Per year 22% |
| 5 years | 84.70 Total return -49% · Per year -12% | 190.46 Total return 16% · Per year 3% | 347.32 Total return 111% · Per year 16% |
- Exit P/E± 45.22
- Net margin± 31.66
- Annual revenue growth± 26.46
- Annual dilution± 2.66
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
Align Technology is a global medical device company that makes Invisalign clear aligners, iTero intraoral scanners and the exocad CAD/CAM software for orthodontics and restorative dentistry. The clear aligner business dominates its revenue, and in the second quarter of 2026 total revenues reached a record of 1.06 billion USD 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a recognized orthodontic brand, an integrated digital platform linking scanning, planning and treatment, and a large base of treated patients 1.
- A solid balance sheet and cash generation give room to invest in innovation and repurchase shares 3.
- An extensive international presence with regional fabrication and treatment planning centers brings production closer to customers 1.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on aligner volume makes revenue sensitive to demand drops and to pressure on average selling prices 1.
- The scanner segment declined markedly in the latest quarter, and the move to leasing defers immediate revenue 3.
- Significant currency exposure affects results, and exchange movements reduced gross margin and diluted EPS in the second quarter of 2026 3.
Opportunities
- Adoption among general dentists and dental support organizations could widen the addressable market 1.
- Treatment of adults and teens, along with subscription programs, could lift product utilization 3.
- Artificial intelligence and automation could open new market segments and improve operating efficiency 1.
Threats
- An economic slowdown and lower discretionary spending could reduce the number of treatment starts 1.
- Tariffs, trade restrictions and geopolitical tensions could raise costs and disrupt the supply chain 1.
- Tax disputes, such as the UK VAT matter on clear aligners, could create additional financial obligations 2.
Risks
- Demand sensitive to the economyhigh
Lower discretionary spending could reduce the number of patients choosing aligners in favor of cheaper treatments 1.
- Trade and tariff riskshigh
Tariffs could raise costs and reduce demand, and the company may not be able to pass all increases on to customers 1.
- Currency exposuremedium
A large part of revenues and expenses is denominated in foreign currencies, and fluctuations could affect results 1.
- UK VAT disputemedium
The decision on VAT applied to clear aligners could create further obligations, and the final outcome remains uncertain 2.
- Weak capital equipment marketlow
Lower scanner sales and the shift to leasing could defer revenue and slow growth 3.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If volume and utilization growth in international regions keeps up, revenue could continue to grow at a healthy pace.
- Expansion among general dentists and adult patients could open a much larger patient base.
- The integrated digital ecosystem could tie customers closer to the platform and support long-term recurring revenue.
What would break the thesis
- If economic uncertainty persists, patients could postpone treatment or choose cheaper fixed braces.
- Tariffs and trade tensions could compress margins and limit access to certain components.
- Weakness in the scanner segment could continue if the capital equipment market stays under pressure.
What to watch
- Trajectory of aligner volume and utilization in international regionsQ3 2026
- Outcome of the appeal against the UK VAT decision on clear aligners2026
- Imaging Systems revenue as the share of leasing growsQ3 2026
- Progress of the Hyderabad, India manufacturing facility2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
Align designs, manufactures and markets clear aligners under the Invisalign brand to treat malocclusions, along with Vivera retainers, iTero intraoral scanners and exocad CAD/CAM software 1. The company runs two operating segments: Clear Aligner and Imaging Systems and CAD/CAM Services. For fiscal 2025, Clear Aligner represented about 80% of worldwide net revenues and Systems and Services the remaining 20% 1. Sales are made mainly directly through a specialized sales force to orthodontists, general dentists, dental laboratories and dental support organizations 1. The headquarters is in Tempe, Arizona, and Align is listed on Nasdaq under ALGN 3.
Segments
Clear Aligner
The Clear Aligner segment includes the Invisalign System. The company estimates that almost all of the roughly 22 million annual orthodontic case starts could be treated with it, but its global share of those starts is about 10% 1. In the second quarter of 2026 segment revenues were 870.9 million USD, up 8.2% year-over-year, and volume of 691.8 thousand cases rose 7.4% 3.
Imaging Systems and CAD/CAM Services
This segment covers iTero intraoral scanners and exocad software sold to practices and labs. In the second quarter of 2026 revenues fell 10.8% year-over-year, reflecting softness in the capital equipment market and a shift toward leasing and rental models that bring lower upfront revenue 3.
Trends
- Macroeconomic uncertainty and demand for dental treatmentheadwind
Weaker consumer confidence and lower discretionary spending could push patients toward cheaper treatments. The company noted that orthodontic starts had fallen for four consecutive years, which could slow sales if economic uncertainty persists 1.
- Tariffs and trade tensionsheadwind
Tariffs and trade measures could raise production costs and weigh on gross margin, with the United States, China and Mexico named as key exposures, since clear aligners for US customers are made in Mexico 1. The company said uncertainty about the durability of tariff measures remains high 2.
- Production expansion in Indiatailwind
The company announced a new facility in Hyderabad, India, expected to begin operations in 2027, with an investment of about 200 million USD. The aim is more capacity, supply chain resilience and manufacturing diversification 2.
- Scanner demand and leasing modelsmixed
Softness in the capital equipment market and the move to leasing and rental reduce upfront scanner revenue but could widen the customer base and build recurring revenue over time. Management has described this shift as a deliberate trade-off 3.
Competitive position
Clear aligners and intraoral scanners compete with traditional braces and wires, which remain the dominant method of orthodontic treatment 1. The company also faces other aligner makers, and negative experiences with their products could affect perceptions of the category 1. In scanners, competition centers on lower prices and flexible acquisition models 3.
- Traditional braces and wires
The conventional method and the company's main alternative, still accounting for most orthodontic case starts 1.
- Other clear aligner makers
Other aligner producers whose products can shape overall perceptions of clear aligner therapy, as the company's risk disclosures note 1.
- Intraoral scanner manufacturers
Dental scanner suppliers competing on price and flexible purchasing models in the Imaging Systems segment 3.
- Dental CAD/CAM software providers
Companies offering restorative software to dental labs and practices, competing with exocad 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Align Technology Stock: Is ALGN Underperforming the Healthcare Sector?Yahoo Finance — News · 18 Sept 2026 · EN
- Align Technology Sees Invisalign Growth Runway Despite Consumer HeadwindsYahoo Finance — News · 18 Sept 2026 · EN
- Are Wall Street Analysts Bullish on Align Technology Stock?Yahoo Finance — News · 27 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 18 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report28 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report31 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report29 Jul 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report29 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report09 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report22 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report20 May 2026Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Align Technology, Inc. · 27 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Align Technology, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Align Technology, Inc. · 29 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.