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olivLaw · US equity research

Armstrong World Industries, Inc. AWI

Plastics Products, NEC · SIC 3089 · Vertical: Plastics Products, NEC (SIC 3089)

175.95USD+2.82% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Armstrong World Industries (AWI) designs and manufactures ceilings, specialty walls and exterior metal solutions, positioned as an Americas leader. It is extending its Architectural Specialties segment through acquisitions, and in the second quarter of 2026 reported record net sales and raised its 2026 guidance midpoints. Consolidated net sales in the second quarter of 2026 rose 11.2%.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (AWI) stock was 175.95 USD (+2.82% on the day), with market capitalisation 7.4 bn USD, P/E 23.5 on diluted EPS of 7.49 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.77%, beta 0.86, 52-week range 151.43–203.15 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 475.8 m USD (+11.9% YoY), net income of 91.9 m USD (+6.5% YoY), diluted EPS 2.17 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
7.4 bn USD
shares as of 22 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
23.5
Diluted EPS TTM 7.49 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
4.26%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.77%
DPS 12m 1.36
Beta (2y)
0.86
Volatility (1y) 28%
52-week range
151.43203.15

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
63.3
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
156.47 – 175.75
above the upper band · %B 1.01 · band width 11.6%
SMA 50 / 200
165.76 / 169.15
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
1.29 / 0.21
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+7.6%−1.1%+8.7 pp—
3 months−5.4%−0.5%−5.0 pp—
6 months+5.8%+4.4%+1.5 pp—
Year to date−7.9%+12.3%−20.2 pp—
1 year−7.4%+13.5%−20.9 pp+38.0%
3 years+118.1%+76.4%+41.6 pp+27.2%
5 years+57.9%+63.7%−5.8 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−25.5%
10 Feb 2026 → 21 Jul 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−47.0%
08 Dec 2021 → 01 Jun 2023
Compound annual growth (5y)
+9.6%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
475.8 m USD
+11.9% YoY
Net income
91.9 m USD
+6.5% YoY
Diluted EPS
2.17
+9.6% YoY
net / operating
19.3% / 27.6%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue367.7 m382.7 m424.6 m425.2 m388.3 m409.9 m472.0 m475.8 m
Cost of revenue223.8 m232.8 m248.8 m246.7 m233.8 m254.6 m277.0 m285.1 m
Gross profit143.9 m149.9 m175.8 m178.5 m154.5 m155.3 m195.0 m190.7 m
SG&A85.4 m78.0 m84.4 m90.1 m87.4 m88.4 m93.7 m91.3 m
Operating income81.9 m98.5 m123.2 m117.2 m92.0 m94.2 m133.8 m131.2 m
Depreciation & amortisation27.3 m29.3 m30.5 m ≈30.1 m30.5 m29.7 m30.2 m ≈32.2 m
Interest expense9.2 m8.5 m8.6 m8.2 m7.7 m7.3 m7.8 m7.5 m
Pre-tax income76.0 m90.7 m115.3 m109.5 m84.8 m88.4 m126.9 m124.4 m
Income tax13.8 m21.6 m27.5 m23.2 m19.3 m21.6 m30.2 m32.5 m
Net income62.2 m69.1 m87.8 m86.3 m65.5 m66.8 m96.7 m91.9 m
Diluted EPS1.41 ≈1.582.011.981.51 ≈1.552.262.17
Operating cash flow86.6 m41.0 m81.6 m ≈122.9 m ≈110.0 m32.1 m93.8 m ≈96.2 m ≈
Capex28.8 m19.1 m19.9 m ≈22.6 m ≈47.8 m17.7 m24.0 m ≈24.7 m ≈
Dividends paid13.5 m13.4 m13.8 m ≈13.4 m ≈14.6 m14.7 m15.5 m ≈14.3 m ≈
Share repurchases16.3 m22.0 m30.4 m ≈27.0 m ≈49.5 m60.6 m76.8 m ≈75.7 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 64 percentile of its own 36-quarter history (min 14.4, median 22.5, max 30.8; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue975.3 m1.0 bn936.9 m1.1 bn1.2 bn1.3 bn1.4 bn1.6 bn
Revenue YoY+9.1%+6.4%−9.7%+18.1%+11.4%+5.0%+11.6%+12.1%
Net income185.9 m214.5 m-99.1 m183.2 m202.9 m223.8 m264.9 m308.7 m
Net income YoY+55.4%+15.4%−146.2%unavailable+10.8%+10.3%+18.4%+16.5%
Diluted EPS3.564.32-2.073.824.374.996.027.08
Diluted EPS YoY+61.1%+21.3%−147.9%unavailable+14.4%+14.2%+20.6%+17.6%
net %19.1%20.7%-10.6%16.6%16.5%17.3%18.3%19.0%
Free cash flow131.3 m111.4 m163.4 m107.4 m107.6 m149.7 m184.0 m246.1 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
112.7 m USD
Financial debt
406.7 m USD
Net debt
294.0 m USD
Equity
900.7 m USD
Total assets
1.9 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.45x
Current ratio
1.46x
ROE
37.2%
ROA
16.4%
FCF margin
15.2%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
798.2 m
2024
864.1 m
2025
962.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
497.0 m
2024
581.6 m
2025
658.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Research & development
2023
14.5 m
2024
15.7 m
2025
16.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
262.5 m
2024
308.5 m
2025
339.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
323.7 m
2024
374.3 m
2025
430.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
89.2 m
2024
103.2 m
2025
120.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
412.9 m ≈
2024
477.5 m ≈
2025
551.3 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
35.3 m
2024
39.8 m
2025
33.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
298.3 m
2024
347.1 m
2025
400.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
74.5 m
2024
82.2 m
2025
91.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
223.8 m
2024
264.9 m
2025
308.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
4.99
2024
6.02
2025
7.08

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
44.8 m
2024
44.0 m
2025
43.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
1.04
2024
1.15
2025
1.26

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
70.8 m
2024
79.3 m
2025
112.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
104.0 m
2024
109.8 m
2025
124.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
313.0 m
2024
348.9 m
2025
391.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
566.4 m
2024
598.8 m
2025
630.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
175.5 m
2024
203.2 m
2025
217.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
412.4 m
2024
455.0 m
2025
425.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
1.7 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
159.9 m
2024
215.3 m
2025
237.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
22.5 m
2024
22.5 m
2025
10.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
564.3 m
2024
502.6 m
2025
396.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
194.5 m
2024
249.7 m
2025
267.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
591.8 m †
2024
757.1 m †
2025
900.7 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
233.5 m
2024
266.8 m
2025
355.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
83.8 m
2024
82.8 m
2025
109.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
149.7 m ≈
2024
184.0 m ≈
2025
246.1 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-10.4 m
2024
-79.3 m
2025
-3.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-258.6 m
2024
-177.6 m
2025
-319.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
46.9 m
2024
50.6 m
2025
55.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
132.0 m
2024
56.3 m
2025
128.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
12.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
9.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
11.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
15.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
16.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
15.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
17.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
17.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
33.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
39.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
32.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
25.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
18.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
12.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
36.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
16.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
27.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
26.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
18.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
27.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
398.2 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
0.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
14.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
1.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
332.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
114.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
217.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
67.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
57.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
45 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
82 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
7.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
7.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
22.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
23.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
4.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
8.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
4.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
13.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
17.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
4.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
33.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
3.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
4.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 73 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

175.95 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 7.4 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
7.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
23.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
8.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
13.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
36.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
18.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
12.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

34/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 22 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 27 Oct 2026
verified 2624derived 246

Score by group

  • Valuation56
  • Returns77
  • Quality81
  • Balance sheet69
  • Growth90

Estimated value range

Low
155.34
USD per share
Mid
168.64
USD per share
High
182.08
USD per share
Price: 175.95 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -4.2% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -4.3% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 77.96 – 278.08 USD.

Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)77.96 – 126.19 (Mid 96.56)
    WACC 9.0% · starting FCFF 240.8 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 37.2%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA155.34 – 182.08 (Mid 168.64)
    6 companies used · median multiple 13.0x · quartiles 12.0x – 14.0x
    ATR, CMT, KRT, MYE, NWL, SWIM
  • Peers: P/E169.56 – 278.08 (Mid 231.40)
    6 companies used · median multiple 30.9x · quartiles 22.6x – 37.1x
    ATR, CMT, DSWL, ENTG, KRT, MYE
  • Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate16.60 – 22.32 (Mid 19.04)
    a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Plastics Products, NEC (SIC 3089)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 73/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality27.3%86 (vs peers)10%
Net margin · Quality18.4%100 (vs peers)6%
FCF conversion · Quality67.9%54 (on a fixed band)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth9.5%80 (on a fixed band)8%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth17.4%100 (on a fixed band)8%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet0.7x57 (vs peers)10%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet14.9x100 (on a fixed band)6%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.5x54 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation23.5x71 (vs peers)10%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation13.5x57 (vs peers)10%
FCF yield · Valuation3.0%37 (on a fixed band)8%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns4.4%62 (on a fixed band)6%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns27.1%100 (on a fixed band)4%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet69/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth90/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality81/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns77/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation56/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

ARMSTRONG WORLD INDUSTRIES, INC. (AWI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.6 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 12.1%; net margin 18.4%; ROE 36.0%; net debt/EBITDA 0.7x.

The estimated value range is 155.34–182.08 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 168.64 USD, the price of 175.95 USD leaves a potential of -4.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -4.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 73/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 27.3%
  • Net margin: 18.4%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 9.5%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 17.4%
  • Interest coverage: 14.9x
  • P/E (TTM): 23.5x
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 27.1%

What contradicts it

  • The valuation methods diverge

Versus the vertical median

Plastics Products, NEC (SIC 3089) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
23.5x
vertical median 35.6x
below median (−34.1%)
EV/EBITDA
13.5x
vertical median 13.7x
at median
P/S
4.2x
vertical median 1.4x
above median (+193.9%)
P/B
8.2x
vertical median 2.9x
above median (+183.6%)
ROE
36.0%
vertical median 9.6%
above median (+273.8%)
Net margin
18.4%
vertical median 5.0%
above median (+266.2%)
EBIT margin
25.8%
vertical median 8.0%
above median (+224.1%)
Revenue YoY
12.1%
vertical median -1.3%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
0.7x
vertical median 2.2x
below median (−68.9%)
Dividend yield
0.8%
vertical median 3.4%
below median (−77.0%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
ENTGEntegris, Inc.21.8 bn55.79.6%11.1%−1.4%+85% / +37%
ATRAptarGroup, Inc9.3 bn35.69.9%6.7%+5.4%+18% / +16%
AWIArmstrong World Industries, Inc.7.4 bn23.536.0%18.4%+12.1%−7% / +118%
NWLNewell Brands Inc2.5 bn—-12.8%-4.4%−5.0%+61% / −23%
MYEMyers Industries, Inc.1.1 bn37.69.7%3.3%−1.3%+58% / +62%
KRTKarat Packaging Inc.1.1 bn21.531.2%10.2%+10.7%+143% / +149%
SWIMLatham Group, Inc.963.2 m100.22.2%1.6%+7.4%+14% / +262%
CMTCore Molding Technologies, Inc.187.1 m26.14.4%2.4%−9.5%+12% / +18%
DSWLDeswell Industries, Inc.46.5 m4.410.0%17.3%−9.3%−19% / +12%

1- and 3-year price returns: for AWI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
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Base
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Bull
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
111.87
Total return -36% · Per year -36%
197.32
Total return 13% · Per year 13%
296.60
Total return 70% · Per year 70%
3 years
119.85
Total return -30% · Per year -11%
236.77
Total return 37% · Per year 11%
389.13
Total return 125% · Per year 31%
5 years
128.40
Total return -24% · Per year -5%
284.11
Total return 67% · Per year 11%
510.52
Total return 197% · Per year 24%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 59.19
  • Net margin± 41.44
  • Annual revenue growth± 32.44
  • Annual dilution± 3.48

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 28 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (27 Oct 2026).

In brief

Armstrong World Industries (AWI) designs and manufactures ceilings, specialty walls and exterior metal solutions, positioned as an Americas leader. It is extending its Architectural Specialties segment through acquisitions, and in the second quarter of 2026 reported record net sales and raised its 2026 guidance midpoints 123. Consolidated net sales in the second quarter of 2026 rose 11.2% 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Strong brands and recognition, with innovations such as Templok and Total Acoustics 1.
  • Leading positions in several ceiling and architectural solution categories 1.
  • Solid sales and profit growth in the second quarter of 2026 3.

Weaknesses

  • Reliance on a few large distribution customers can amplify revenue risk 1.
  • Indebtedness and covenants in the senior credit facility limit financial flexibility 1.
  • Architectural Specialties margins are lower than those of Mineral Fiber 3.

Opportunities

  • Expansion into new adjacent categories and sectors through acquisitions and investments 1.
  • Demand for sustainable and energy-efficient products could grow 1.
  • Digital tools and ecommerce could accelerate renovation activity 1.

Threats

  • Volatile raw material costs and tariffs can compress margins 1.
  • Strong competition and excess capacity can press on prices 1.
  • Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty could weigh on commercial construction 23.

Risks

  • Dependence on large customershigh

    Loss or decline of sales to key customers could significantly affect results 1.

  • Indebtedness and covenantsmedium

    A breach of covenants in the senior credit facility could allow lenders to call outstanding borrowings 1.

  • Input costs and supply chainmedium

    Shortages or higher costs of raw materials and energy could compress margins 1.

  • Acquisition integrationmedium

    Integrating acquired businesses can face difficulties and unforeseen costs 1.

  • Climate and regulatory riskslow

    Emission rules and customer expectations could raise costs or require product changes 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Sales rose in both segments in the second quarter of 2026 and management raised full-year guidance, which could support further profit growth 3.
  • Recent acquisitions and the expansion strategy in Architectural Specialties could open new revenue sources 12.
  • The share repurchase program extended through 2029 signals management confidence in cash generation 3.

What would break the thesis

  • Dependence on a few distributors and home center chains could expose the company to abrupt changes in buying behavior 1.
  • Indebtedness and credit restrictions could limit the ability to invest and return capital to shareholders 1.
  • Architectural Specialties margins are lower and could remain under pressure from steel and aluminum costs 3.

What to watch

  • Operating margin trend and the effect of raw material costsQ3 2026
  • Integration of Eventscape and acquisition contribution in Architectural Specialties2026
  • Delivery against the raised guidance for net sales and adjusted EBITDA2026
  • Evolution of sales concentration among distributors and large chainsnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 28 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (27 Oct 2026).

The business

AWI is a Pennsylvania corporation incorporated in 1891 that designs and manufactures interior and exterior architectural solutions, including ceilings, specialty walls and exterior metal solutions 1. It reports through two segments, Mineral Fiber and Architectural Specialties, plus Unallocated Corporate, and holds a 50% equity interest in the WAVE joint venture with Worthington Enterprises 1. As of June 30, 2026 it operated 24 manufacturing plants, 20 in the U.S. and four in Canada 2.

The company sells mainly through building materials distributors, which resell to commercial contractors, and a significant share of sales goes to large home center chains 1. Sales to Lowe's and The Home Depot, including through their distributor acquisitions, each exceeded 10% of consolidated gross sales in 2025 1. Recent acquisitions such as Zahner, 3form, Geometrik, Parallel and Eventscape have expanded the Architectural Specialties portfolio 12.

Segments

Mineral Fiber

The segment makes suspended mineral fiber and fiberglass ceiling systems with acoustic, fire-protection and energy-efficiency attributes, and includes the results of WAVE 1. In the second quarter of 2026 segment net sales rose 7.9%, supported by favorable average unit value and higher volumes 3.

Architectural Specialties

The segment designs and produces specialty ceilings, walls and exterior architectural applications, mostly for commercial projects 1. Net sales rose 16.6% in the second quarter of 2026, including acquired businesses 3.

Market context

AWI serves building markets in the Americas, mainly commercial new construction and renovation across office, education, healthcare and retail sectors 1. Demand is tracked through indicators such as the Architecture Billings Index and commercial construction starts, and revenue from new construction can lag starts by as much as 24 months 1. Its products compete with other ceiling products and with drywall 1.

Trends

  • Average unit value growthtailwind

    Favorable AUV lifted revenue in the second quarter of 2026 through price and mix at the high end 23. If cost pressures persist, further price increases could prove harder to pass through 1.

  • Acquisitions in Architectural Specialtiesmixed

    The recent acquisition series has added revenue and capabilities, but integration can bring extra costs 12. If integration does not go smoothly, the expected benefits could be delayed 1.

  • Raw material and tariff costsheadwind

    Costs of inputs such as energy, steel and aluminum have risen and can weigh on margins 13. Tariffs have created pressure, although refunds recognized in the second quarter provided some offset 3.

  • Customer concentration in distributionheadwind

    Consolidation among distributors, with acquisitions by Home Depot and Lowe's, has changed relationships with key customers 1. The concentration means changes in a few customers' behavior could have a large impact 1.

Competitive position

The market is highly competitive, with product performance, styling, service and price as main factors, and competition from both domestic and international makers 1. Excess industry capacity for some products can intensify price competition 1. Primary competitors named include CertainTeed, Rockfon, USG and Ceilings Plus 1.

  • CertainTeed Corporation

    A subsidiary of Saint-Gobain and a direct ceiling competitor 1.

  • Rockfon A/S

    European ceiling competitor owned by Rockwool International 1.

  • USG Corporation

    Ceiling competitor owned by Gebr. Knauf KG 1.

  • Ceilings Plus

    Ceiling competitor owned by USG Corporation 1.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Armstrong World Industries, Inc. · 24 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Armstrong World Industries, Inc. · 28 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Armstrong World Industries, Inc. · 28 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.