olivLaw · US equity research
Birkenstock Holding plc BIRK
Footwear, (No Rubber) · SIC 3140 · Vertical: Leather products (SIC 31xx)
Birkenstock Holding plc designs and sells footbed-based footwear rooted in German tradition, distributed through B2B and DTC channels with vertically integrated production in Germany. In fiscal 2025 revenue reached €2.1 billion, up 16% reported, as transatlantic trade uncertainty could affect the company's cost base.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) stock was 37.27 USD (+4.90% on the day), with beta 1.16, 52-week range 30.01–48.97 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 66.3
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 30.96 – 36.46
- above the upper band · %B 1.15 · band width 16.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 33.13 / 38.13
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.48 / 0.05
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +10.4% | −1.1% | +11.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | −0.6% | −0.5% | −0.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | −5.9% | +4.4% | −10.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | −8.9% | +12.3% | −21.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | −5.6% | +13.5% | −19.2 pp | +14.7% |
| 3 years | −9.5% | +76.4% | −85.9 pp | +12.1% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +20.0% | +21.0% | +16.2% |
| Net income | 187.1 m | 75.0 m | 191.6 m | 348.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −59.9% | +155.4% | +81.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.02 | 0.41 | 1.02 | 1.87 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −59.8% | +148.8% | +83.3% |
| net % | 15.1% | 5.0% | 10.6% | 16.6% |
| Free cash flow | 163.4 m | 256.6 m | 363.3 m | 307.6 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Sept 2025
- Cash
- 329.1 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 1.1 bn EUR
- Net debt
- 816.1 m EUR
- Equity
- 2.7 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 4.9 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.42x
- Current ratio
- 2.81x
- ROE
- 13.0%
- ROA
- 7.1%
- FCF margin
- 14.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 493.0 m | 566.1 m | 744.0 m | 857.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 749.8 m | 925.8 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
| Operating income | 363.0 m | 260.7 m | 421.1 m | 549.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 81.3 m | 83.4 m | 101.3 m | 113.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
| EBITDA | 444.3 m ≈ | 344.1 m ≈ | 522.4 m ≈ | 663.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025derived |
| Interest expense | 112.5 m | 107.0 m | 127.3 m | 79.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 250.5 m | 153.7 m | 293.8 m | 470.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
| Income tax | 63.4 m | 78.6 m | 102.2 m | 121.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
| Net income | 187.1 m | 75.0 m | 191.6 m | 348.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.02 | 0.41 | 1.02 | 1.87 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 182.7 m | 182.7 m | 187.6 m | 186.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 307.1 m | 344.4 m | 355.8 m | 329.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
| Receivables | 66.1 m | 91.8 m | 114.3 m | 160.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
| Inventories | 535.6 m | 595.1 m | 624.8 m | 704.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
| Current assets | 959.9 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 205.0 m | 286.1 m | 318.8 m | 357.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
| Total assets | 4.8 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 113.2 m | 123.0 m | 136.3 m | 136.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | 46.6 m | 37.3 m | 24.7 m | 17.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 324.0 m | 378.6 m | 447.9 m | 453.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
| Equity | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | 182.7 m | 187.8 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2024verified |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 234.1 m | 358.7 m | 428.7 m | 384.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
| Capex | 70.8 m | 102.2 m | 65.4 m | 76.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 163.4 m ≈ | 256.6 m ≈ | 363.3 m ≈ | 307.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -71.6 m | -100.7 m | -58.8 m | -79.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -105.3 m | -199.3 m | -355.0 m | -330.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 85 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
- Quality74
- Growth100
- Balance sheet85
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 22.37 – 42.80 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDA34.95 – 42.80 (Mid 39.24)4 companies used · median multiple 12.3x · quartiles 11.1x – 13.4xCPRI, RCKY, TPR, WWW
- Peers: P/E22.37 – 33.55 (Mid 27.34)6 companies used · median multiple 14.6x · quartiles 12.0x – 17.9xCAL, CPRI, RCKY, SHOO, TPR, WWW
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 85/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 11.6% | 60 (vs peers) | 17% |
| Net margin · Quality | 16.6% | 89 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 88.3% | 83 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 19.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 22.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 1.2x | 80 (vs peers) | 17% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 6.9x | 83 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.8x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet85/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality74/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.1 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth 16.2%; net margin 16.6%; ROE 13.0%; net debt/EBITDA 1.2x.
The estimated value range is 28.66–38.18 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: same basis (multiples on one peer group, not independent confirmations)); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 85/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns, valuation. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 16.6%
- FCF conversion: 88.3%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 19.1%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 22.4%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 1.2x
- Interest coverage: 6.9x
- Current ratio: 2.8x
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Leather products (SIC 31xx) · same major group (2-digit SIC) · compared with 9 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPRTapestry, Inc. | 25.0 bn | 17.2 | 197.1% | 19.1% | +14.2% | +15% / +296% |
| SHOOSteven Madden, Ltd. | 3.4 bn | 22.9 | 16.7% | 5.4% | +11.0% | +12% / +24% |
| CPRICapri Holdings Limited | 2.2 bn | 12.0 | — | 6.1% | −4.1% | −16% / −56% |
| WWWWolverine World Wide, Inc. | 1.9 bn | 18.2 | 27.1% | 5.5% | unavailable | +45% / +174% |
| CALCaleres, Inc | 507.6 m | 9.9 | 8.2% | 1.8% | +1.3% | +26% / −52% |
| RCKYRocky Brands, Inc. | 411.2 m | 12.0 | 13.2% | 6.6% | +6.2% | +80% / +89% |
| VRAVera Bradley, Inc. | 216.0 m | — | -7.4% | -3.7% | −15.4% | +165% / +0% |
| TLFTandy Leather Factory, Inc | 18.6 m | — | -3.2% | -2.1% | +2.6% | −17% / −45% |
| BIRKBirkenstock Holding plc | — | — | 13.0% | 16.6% | +16.2% | −6% / −9% |
| FMFCKandal M Venture Limited | — | 366.0 | 76.7% | 1.2% | +23.0% | −85% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for BIRK from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 18 Dec 2025; since then the company filed 6-K (03 Nov 2026), 6-K (17 Aug 2026), 6-K (13 Aug 2026), 6-K (06 Aug 2026), 6-K (15 Jul 2026).
In brief
Birkenstock Holding plc designs and sells footbed-based footwear rooted in German tradition, distributed through B2B and DTC channels with vertically integrated production in Germany. In fiscal 2025 revenue reached €2.1 billion, up 16% reported, as transatlantic trade uncertainty could affect the company's cost base.
SWOT
Strengths
- A long-established brand with strong recognition, built on a protected orthopedic footbed and iconic silhouettes that have been in the market for decades.
- Vertically integrated manufacturing in Germany supports quality and gives the company control over product mix and pricing.
- Wholesale partner demand exceeds supply, which gives the company negotiating power.
Weaknesses
- High dependence on the U.S. market, which accounts for a large share of revenue and is exposed to tariff risk.
- Limited production capacity has constrained growth in APAC and left demand unmet.
- Operating cash flow fell in fiscal 2025, partly due to tax payment timing and working capital changes.
Opportunities
- Capacity expansion and new factories could allow the company to serve latent demand in underpenetrated markets.
- Development of new categories such as closed-toe footwear, outdoor products and sleep systems could diversify revenue.
- Growth of the DTC channel through owned stores and e-commerce could improve margins if its share rises.
Threats
- Trade tariffs and uncertainty in U.S.-EU relations could reduce demand and raise production costs.
- Competitors with offshore production may adopt more aggressive pricing, which could compress the company's margins.
- Counterfeits and inspired-by products could erode demand and affect brand image.
Risks
- Dependence on brand imagehigh
Brand reputation can be harmed by negative publicity, supplier quality problems or social media commentary, and the effect could be significant.
- Tariff exposurehigh
Trade agreements and tariffs could raise the cost of sales in the largest market, the U.S., and reduce margins if not offset.
- Intense competitionmedium
Competitors with greater resources and offshore production could reduce market share and pressure prices.
- Currency fluctuationsmedium
Revenue is reported in euros while many transactions are in U.S. dollars, which could reduce reported results.
- Supply chain and productionlow
Disruptions at German factories or supplier problems with raw materials such as cork could affect production.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If wholesale demand remains above supply, the company could maintain favorable commercial terms and firm pricing.
- Capacity expansion could enable growth in markets where the brand is underpenetrated, especially in APAC.
- Improving adjusted EBITDA margin and lower net leverage could give the company financial flexibility.
What would break the thesis
- If U.S. tariffs persist, production costs could rise and compress margins.
- Competitors producing in Asia could apply more aggressive pricing, which could limit price increases.
- If operating cash flow stays under pressure, the company could have less room for investment.
What to watch
- Effect of U.S. tariffs on cost of sales and gross marginfiscal 2026
- Growth pace of the DTC channel and the APAC segmentQ1 2027
- Start of production at the Wittichenau factory2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 18 Dec 2025; since then the company filed 6-K (03 Nov 2026), 6-K (17 Aug 2026), 6-K (13 Aug 2026), 6-K (06 Aug 2026), 6-K (15 Jul 2026).
The business
Its 'engineered distribution' model combines B2B wholesale with DTC, made up of owned stores and e-commerce. In fiscal 2025 the DTC channel represented 38% of revenue and B2B grew 20% reported 1. The company allocates production down to the individual door to protect average selling prices and brand image.
Segments
Market context
The company describes Americas and EMEA as its most developed markets but still with significant room to grow, since the brand remains underpenetrated in many countries where it is present 1. It operates in a competitive footwear industry in which many peers have outsourced production to Asia, enabling more aggressive pricing 1.
Premium comfort footwear is shaped by U.S. tariffs and the July 2025 trade deal that sets at least 15% U.S. tariffs on EU goods 1. The company expects a modest increase in cost of sales for fiscal 2026 if the tariffs remain in place 1.
Trends
- Tariff uncertaintyheadwind
U.S. tariffs from April 2025 and EU countermeasures raised geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty; the company says the impact on fiscal 2025 was not significant, but it expects cost effects in fiscal 2026 1.
- Strong wholesale demandtailwind
Demand from wholesale partners exceeds supply, which could let the company keep favorable commercial terms if capacity expands as planned 1.
- Health-oriented consumptiontailwind
A shift toward conscious, health-oriented consumption and away from fast fashion supports demand for the brand's orthopedic products 1.
- Currency swingsmixed
Most non-euro transactions are in U.S. dollars, and currency movements have reduced euro-reported results; the company cites increased adverse currency effects tied to trade uncertainty 1.
Competitive position
The company says it faces intense competition from established firms and new entrants, some with greater financial resources and broader product lines 1. In Asia and the Middle East, where it is a relatively new entrant, competition is already strong 1.
Competitors that outsource production to Asia may be able to sustain more aggressive pricing than the company, which produces in Germany 1. Inspired-by products and counterfeits may divert demand and create customer confusion 1.
- Established footwear brands with offshore production
Peers described by the company as having greater resources and production in Asia that allows more aggressive pricing.
- New entrants into the footwear market
Firms expanding quickly thanks to available offshore manufacturing capacity.
- Counterfeit and inspired-by product makers
Products that can reduce demand created by the company and confuse customers.
- Regional competitors in Asia and the Middle East
Local players where the brand is a new entrant with limited market share.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Lidl pierde în Olanda războiul sandalelor cu BirkenstockHotNews.ro · 28 Sept 2026 · RO
- FOTO Lidl retrage de la vânzare, obligat de instanță, sandale care imită modelele Birkenstock - tribunal din Țările de JosProfit.ro · 24 Sept 2026 · RO
- Lidl banned from selling copycat Birkenstock sandals, Dutch court rulesBBC — Europe · 23 Sept 2026 · EN
- Birkenstock Proves Premium Still Sells, Even as the Rest of Retail StrugglesYahoo Finance — News · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- Birkenstock Shares Rebound as Investors Reassess ValuationYahoo Finance — News · 24 Aug 2026 · EN
- Birkenstock Rallies on Forecast; StubHub Falls on Earnings | Stock MoversBloomberg Markets · 13 Aug 2026 · EN
- Birkenstock Readies First Bond Deal in Five Years for BuybacksBloomberg Markets · 15 Jun 2026 · EN
- Simplitate fără efort - Cum să porți sandalele Birkenstock pentru un look rafinat și modernAntena 3 CNN · 21 May 2026 · RO
The latest news item in our archive is from 28 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 03 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)03 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)17 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)13 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)13 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)06 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)22 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)16 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)16 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 Jun 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 · SEC / Birkenstock Holding plc · 18 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.