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olivLaw · US equity research

Steven Madden, Ltd. SHOO

Footwear, (No Rubber) · SIC 3140 · Vertical: Leather products (SIC 31xx)

46.98USD+6.70% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Steven Madden, Ltd. designs, sources and markets fashion footwear, accessories and apparel under its own brands and private label, through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels. Revenue grew in fiscal 2025 and again in the second quarter of 2026, helped by the Kurt Geiger acquisition, and total revenue reached 2.534 billion USD.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) stock was 46.98 USD (+6.70% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.4 bn USD, P/E 22.9 on diluted EPS of 2.05 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.79%, beta 1.45, 52-week range 31.37–49.07 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 665.9 m USD (+19.1% YoY), net income of 27.7 m USD, diluted EPS 0.38 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
3.4 bn USD
shares as of 28 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
22.9
Diluted EPS TTM 2.05 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
4.37%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
1.79%
DPS 12m 0.84
Beta (2y)
1.45
Volatility (1y) 42%
52-week range
31.3749.07

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
62.9
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
42.21 – 46.56
above the upper band · %B 1.10 · band width 9.8%
SMA 50 / 200
43.92 / 41.34
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.05 / -0.09
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+2.8%−1.1%+3.9 pp—
3 months−4.3%−0.5%−3.8 pp—
6 months+17.4%+4.4%+13.0 pp—
Year to date+12.8%+12.3%+0.5 pp—
1 year+43.1%+13.5%+29.5 pp+14.7%
3 years+35.4%+76.4%−41.0 pp−9.5%
5 years−5.6%+63.7%−69.3 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−32.1%
15 Jan 2026 → 13 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−61.9%
16 Nov 2021 → 16 Apr 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
−1.1%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
665.9 m USD
+19.1% YoY
Net income
27.7 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
0.38
unavailable YoY
net / operating
4.2% / 5.9%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue624.7 m582.3 m553.5 m559.0 m667.9 m753.7 m653.1 m665.9 m
Cost of revenue365.1 m346.9 m327.3 m333.0 m390.5 m433.9 m295.7 m356.2 m
Gross profit259.5 m235.4 m226.3 m226.0 m277.4 m319.8 m357.4 m309.7 m
Operating income74.6 m46.7 m53.5 m-40.3 m31.4 m36.2 m98.7 m39.3 m
Depreciation & amortisation5.2 m5.3 m5.3 m8.7 m11.2 m8.3 m9.4 m9.2 m
Pre-tax income76.0 m48.0 m54.3 m-34.8 m26.4 m31.7 m95.1 m38.1 m
Income tax19.4 m10.2 m13.1 m3.9 m4.6 m7.1 m23.5 m10.1 m
Net income55.3 m41.3 m40.4 m-39.5 m20.5 m27.5 m71.8 m27.7 m
Diluted EPS0.770.58 ≈0.57-0.560.290.38 ≈1.000.38
Operating cash flow444.0 k ≈103.9 m-18.8 m66.5 m ≈23.4 m ≈91.1 m-55.3 m204.6 m ≈
Capex7.4 m ≈9.3 m9.8 m7.7 m ≈14.8 m ≈10.3 m5.9 m8.5 m ≈
Dividends paid15.2 m ≈15.2 m15.2 m15.2 m ≈15.3 m ≈15.3 m15.3 m15.4 m ≈
Share repurchases20.2 m ≈2.6 m7.8 m428.0 k ≈169.0 k ≈5.2 m7.4 m985.0 k ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 78 percentile of its own 37-quarter history (min 8.4, median 19.0, max 155.3; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue1.7 bn1.8 bn1.2 bn1.9 bn2.1 bn2.0 bn2.3 bn2.5 bn
Revenue YoY+7.1%+6.5%−32.8%+55.3%+13.7%−6.6%+15.2%+11.0%
Net income129.1 m141.3 m-18.4 m192.5 m217.2 m174.0 m175.9 m49.0 m
Net income YoY+9.5%+9.4%−113.0%unavailable+12.9%−19.9%+1.1%−72.1%
Diluted EPS1.501.69-0.232.342.772.302.350.63
Diluted EPS YoY+10.3%+12.7%−113.6%unavailable+18.4%−17.0%+2.2%−73.2%
net %7.7%7.9%-1.5%10.3%10.2%8.8%7.7%1.9%
Free cash flow141.9 m215.5 m37.6 m152.9 m251.5 m209.8 m172.2 m119.5 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
112.4 m USD
Financial debt
234.2 m USD
Net debt
121.7 m USD
Equity
904.0 m USD
Total assets
1.9 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.26x
Current ratio
1.90x
ROE
5.5%
ROA
2.9%
FCF margin
4.7%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
2.0 bn
2024
2.3 bn
2025
2.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
832.4 m
2024
936.9 m
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
213.2 m
2024
224.9 m
2025
80.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
15.5 m
2024
20.0 m
2025
33.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
228.7 m ≈
2024
244.9 m ≈
2025
114.2 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026derived

Pre-tax income
2023
220.6 m
2024
230.5 m
2025
77.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
46.6 m
2024
54.6 m
2025
28.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
174.0 m
2024
175.9 m
2025
49.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
2.30
2024
2.35
2025
0.63

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
74.6 m
2024
72.0 m
2025
71.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.84
2024
0.84
2025
0.84

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
204.6 m
2024
189.9 m
2025
112.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
4.8 m
2024
4.7 m
2025
7.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 08 May 2026verified

Inventories
2023
229.0 m
2024
257.6 m
2025
417.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
854.8 m
2024
894.7 m
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
47.2 m
2024
57.4 m
2025
115.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
180.0 m
2024
183.7 m
2025
254.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
126.3 m
2024
113.4 m
2025
281.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
161.1 m
2024
206.9 m
2025
197.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
—
2024
0
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jul 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
—
2024
0
2025
234.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
377.6 m
2024
413.7 m
2025
525.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
499.9 m
2024
535.8 m
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
848.0 m
2024
876.0 m
2025
904.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
229.2 m
2024
198.1 m
2025
162.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
19.5 m
2024
25.9 m
2025
42.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
209.8 m ≈
2024
172.2 m ≈
2025
119.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-99.9 m
2024
-39.5 m
2025
-400.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-200.9 m
2024
-167.9 m
2025
157.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
63.2 m
2024
61.0 m
2025
61.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
142.3 m
2024
98.4 m
2025
13.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
11.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
6.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
16.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-64.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-72.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-39.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-73.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-39.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
-30.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
46.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
8.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
7.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
5.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
8.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
16.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
7.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
15.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
40.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
27.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
unavailable
input data missing

Cash

Operating cash flow
263.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
39.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
224.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
151.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
108.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
1 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
101 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
54 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
47 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
3.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
23.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
22.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
4.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
3.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
1.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
15.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
6.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
1.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
2.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 51 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

46.98 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 3.4 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
3.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
22.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
3.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
16.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
5.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
11.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
1.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

33/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 28 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 31 Jul 2026
verified 2681derived 220

Score by group

  • Valuation46
  • Returns59
  • Quality72
  • Balance sheet92
  • Growth25

Estimated value range

Low
17.79
USD per share
Mid
18.66
USD per share
High
25.13
USD per share
Price: 46.98 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -60.3% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -151.7% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 11.04 – 35.41 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/E24.55 – 35.41 (Mid 24.66)
    5 companies used · median multiple 12.0x · quartiles 12.0x – 17.2x
    CAL, CPRI, RCKY, TPR, WWW
  • Dividend discount (DDM)11.04 – 14.84 (Mid 12.66)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Leather products (SIC 31xx)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 51/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality5.4%44 (vs peers)10%
FCF conversion · Quality151.9%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth6.1%51 (on a fixed band)13%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-39.0%0 (on a fixed band)13%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.9x92 (on a fixed band)7%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation22.9x17 (vs peers)17%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation6.5%82 (on a fixed band)13%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns2.2%31 (on a fixed band)10%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns27.3%100 (on a fixed band)7%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial92/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth25/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality72/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns59/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation46/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

STEVEN MADDEN, LTD. (SHOO). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.5 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 11.0%; net margin 5.4%; ROE 16.7%.

The estimated value range is 17.79–25.13 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 18.66 USD, the price of 46.98 USD leaves a potential of -60.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -151.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 51/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 151.9%
  • Current ratio: 1.9x
  • FCF yield: 6.5%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 27.3%

What contradicts it

  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -39.0%
  • P/E (TTM): 22.9x
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA.

Versus the vertical median

Leather products (SIC 31xx) · same major group (2-digit SIC) · compared with 9 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
22.9x
vertical median 14.6x
above median (+56.4%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 12.3x
P/S
1.3x
vertical median 0.8x
above median (+59.4%)
P/B
3.7x
vertical median 1.6x
above median (+124.1%)
ROE
16.7%
vertical median 13.1%
above median (+27.0%)
Net margin
5.4%
vertical median 5.5%
at median
EBIT margin
7.5%
vertical median 3.1%
above median (+145.6%)
Revenue YoY
11.0%
vertical median 4.4%
above median (+149.7%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 1.9x
Dividend yield
1.8%
vertical median 1.7%
above median (+5.0%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
TPRTapestry, Inc.25.0 bn17.2197.1%19.1%+14.2%+15% / +296%
SHOOSteven Madden, Ltd.3.4 bn22.916.7%5.4%+11.0%+43% / +35%
CPRICapri Holdings Limited2.2 bn12.0—6.1%−4.1%−16% / −56%
WWWWolverine World Wide, Inc.1.9 bn18.227.1%5.5%unavailable+45% / +174%
CALCaleres, Inc507.6 m9.98.2%1.8%+1.3%+26% / −52%
RCKYRocky Brands, Inc.411.2 m12.013.2%6.6%+6.2%+80% / +89%
VRAVera Bradley, Inc.216.0 m—-7.4%-3.7%−15.4%+165% / +0%
TLFTandy Leather Factory, Inc18.6 m—-3.2%-2.1%+2.6%−17% / −45%
FMFCKandal M Venture Limited—366.076.7%1.2%+23.0%−85% / unavailable
BIRKBirkenstock Holding plc——13.0%16.6%+16.2%−14% / −19%

1- and 3-year price returns: for SHOO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
27.70
Total return -40% · Per year -40%
48.94
Total return 6% · Per year 6%
73.67
Total return 59% · Per year 59%
3 years
27.76
Total return -37% · Per year -14%
55.09
Total return 23% · Per year 7%
90.93
Total return 101% · Per year 26%
5 years
27.81
Total return -34% · Per year -8%
62.01
Total return 43% · Per year 7%
112.22
Total return 153% · Per year 20%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 13.77
  • Net margin± 9.64
  • Annual revenue growth± 7.79
  • Annual dilution± 0.81

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Steven Madden, Ltd. designs, sources and markets fashion footwear, accessories and apparel under its own brands and private label, through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels. Revenue grew in fiscal 2025 and again in the second quarter of 2026, helped by the Kurt Geiger acquisition, and total revenue reached 2.534 billion USD 12.

SWOT

Strengths

  • A portfolio of well-known brands recognized for trend-right design, supported by a test-and-react model across stores and e-commerce 1.
  • Sustained revenue growth into 2026 and a raised outlook from management after a strong quarter 3.
  • A direct-to-consumer channel with higher gross margins than wholesale that is growing at an accelerating pace 3.

Weaknesses

  • Heavy reliance on the main brand and on the founder-designer, whose loss could seriously disrupt the business 1.
  • Exposure to a few large wholesale customers without long-term contracts, which could reduce sales if they cut orders 1.
  • Higher indebtedness after the Kurt Geiger acquisition and significant goodwill, which could lead to impairment if conditions worsen 2.

Opportunities

  • International expansion, which management calls its largest long-term growth initiative, particularly through joint ventures 1.
  • Growth in non-footwear categories such as handbags, accessories and apparel 1.
  • Integrating Kurt Geiger and digital channels could generate synergies and widen the customer base 13.

Threats

  • Tariffs and international trade tensions that could raise sourcing costs 1.
  • Intense competition and low barriers to entry that could pressure prices and market share 1.
  • Financial difficulties at retail customers, which could raise credit risk 1.

Risks

  • Shifts in fashion preferenceshigh

    If trend forecasts prove wrong, inventory could become excessive and the brand could lose appeal 1.

  • Kurt Geiger integrationhigh

    Integrating the operations, systems and personnel of Kurt Geiger could prove difficult, and synergies could fall short of expectations 12.

  • Debt and goodwillmedium

    Debt taken on for the acquisition and substantial intangible assets could lead to impairment if the business environment deteriorates 2.

  • Trade policymedium

    Changes in tariff policy and retaliatory trade measures could affect margins and the supply chain 12.

  • Dependence on large customerslow

    A decision by a major customer to reduce purchases could significantly affect wholesale sales 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Revenue growth accelerated in the second quarter of 2026 and the revenue outlook was raised, which could point to durable commercial momentum 3.
  • The higher-margin direct-to-consumer channel is growing quickly, and digital and international expansion could improve profitability 13.
  • The tariff impact appears smaller in 2026, which, if confirmed, could support margins 3.

What would break the thesis

  • Net income attributable to shareholders fell sharply in 2025, and profitability could stay under pressure if the Kurt Geiger integration does not go to plan 1.
  • The company depends on a category with volatile demand and on a brand tied to its founder, which could amplify succession risk 1.
  • An uncertain macro environment, high interest rates and trade tensions could reduce discretionary spending and pressure margins 1.

What to watch

  • Gross margin trend in wholesale and the cost impact of tariffsQ3 2026
  • Kurt Geiger integration and its contribution to revenue and profit2026
  • Delivery against the 2026 GAAP and adjusted diluted EPS guidancenext 10-K
  • Debt level and goodwill after the acquisitionQ3 2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Steven Madden, Ltd. and its subsidiaries design, source and market fashion-forward branded and private label footwear, accessories and apparel 1. Products are distributed through wholesale to department stores, mass merchants, online retailers and clubs in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, Canada and Mexico, and through joint ventures in several international regions 1. The company does not own foreign factories; products are made by independent manufacturers, mainly in China, Cambodia, Vietnam and Mexico 1. The direct-to-consumer channel includes company stores, international concessions and e-commerce platforms 1.

At the end of 2025 the company operated 399 brick-and-mortar stores and seven e-commerce platforms, up from 291 stores and five platforms at the end of 2024 1. The Kurt Geiger acquisition, completed in May 2025, added the Kurt Geiger London and Carvela brands along with their stores and concessions 13. The stated strategy rests on trend-right product, test-and-react selling, and international expansion 1.

At the end of the second quarter of 2026 the company had 382 Company-operated stores, including 92 outlets, eight e-commerce websites and 164 international concessions 3. Management attributes growth mainly to the Steve Madden brand and has raised its 2026 revenue outlook 3.

Segments

Wholesale Footwear

The wholesale footwear segment represented 40.9% of total revenue in 2025, selling brands such as Steve Madden, Kurt Geiger, Dolce Vita, Betsey Johnson, Blondo, Carvela and Anne Klein, plus private label 1.

Wholesale Accessories/Apparel

The wholesale accessories and apparel segment represented 25.3% of total revenue in 2025 and includes handbags, apparel, small leather goods and accessories under brands such as Steve Madden, ATM and Anne Klein 1.

Direct-to-Consumer

The direct-to-consumer channel represented 33.4% of revenue in 2025 and is the fastest-growing channel in 2026 according to the quarterly release 13.

Market context

The fashion footwear and accessories market is described by the company as highly competitive, with low barriers to entry and many new and established competitors 1. Rapid shifts in consumer preferences and retail channels, including the growth of online shopping, shape both demand and relationships with customers 1.

The macroeconomic backdrop is described as uncertain, with tariffs, geopolitical tensions and interest rates that remain elevated relative to prior years, all weighing on discretionary spending 1. The company notes a shift in retail toward omnichannel shopping, which favours its digital investments 1.

Trends

  • Growth of direct-to-consumertailwind

    Direct sales through stores and e-commerce are growing faster than wholesale, and management emphasizes digital, personalization and marketing 13. If this trend holds, the channel's higher gross margins could support results.

  • Changing shopping behaviourheadwind

    The move of shoppers toward online and mobile channels is reducing traffic in malls and outlet centres and may pressure wholesale customers with physical stores 1.

  • Tariffs and trade policymixed

    Tariffs on imports from China, Cambodia, Vietnam and Brazil were announced, postponed or adjusted, and the lack of clarity led the company to diversify its supplier base 1. Management notes a smaller negative tariff impact in 2026 3.

  • Interest rates and consumer spendingmixed

    Interest rates have recently fallen in the United States and other markets but remain high compared with prior years, affecting credit and discretionary spending 1.

Competitive position

The company competes with specialty footwear and accessories companies and with diversified product lines, some of which have greater financial and marketing resources 1. According to the company, the key success factors are brand strength, trend-driven styling, product quality, value, speed to market and the use of digital data 1.

  • Specialty footwear and fashion accessories companies

    The sources do not name individual competitors; the company describes the general category of specialty footwear, accessories and apparel rivals 1.

  • Companies with diversified product lines

    The company refers to competitors with broad portfolios without naming them in the texts provided 1.

  • Retailers that are also customers

    Retailers such as Nordstrom, Macy's and Amazon are both wholesale customers and, in effect, competitors for the consumer's spending 1.

  • New online entrants

    The sources mention a steady arrival of new competitors, encouraged by online commerce and low barriers to entry 1.

News & filings

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Steven Madden, Ltd. · 02 Mar 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Steven Madden, Ltd. · 31 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Steven Madden, Ltd. · 30 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.