olivLaw · US equity research
Burlington Stores, Inc. BURL
Retail-Department Stores · SIC 5311 · Vertical: General merchandise stores (SIC 53xx)
Burlington Stores is an off-price retailer with well over a thousand stores across the United States, Puerto Rico and D.C., selling branded merchandise at up to 60% below other retailers' prices. With total sales growth of 11% in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 and a raised adjusted EPS outlook, the company shows how its opportunistic buying model can convert sales growth into margin, though comparable store growth remains modest.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) stock was 258.38 USD (+7.70% on the day), with market capitalisation 16.2 bn USD, P/E 23.2 on diluted EPS of 11.12 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.09%, beta 1.07, 52-week range 227.28–372.19 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2027): revenue of 3.0 bn USD (+11.0% YoY), net income of 184.3 m USD (+95.7% YoY), diluted EPS 2.88 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 52.9
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 226.77 – 280.82
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.58 · band width 21.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 256.90 / 306.62
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -6.74 / -7.12
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −4.9% | −1.1% | −3.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | −30.0% | −0.5% | −29.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | −18.4% | +4.4% | −22.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −10.5% | +12.3% | −22.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | −5.3% | +13.5% | −18.9 pp | +16.9% |
| 3 years | +95.1% | +76.4% | +18.7 pp | +33.7% |
| 5 years | −13.3% | +63.7% | −76.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2027 · 01 Aug 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 | Q2 '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.5 bn | 3.3 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.6 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.0 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 1.4 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn |
| SG&A | 893.1 m | 964.7 m | 868.1 m | 949.9 m | 947.5 m | 1.1 bn | 989.4 m | 1.0 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 87.5 m | 91.5 m | 91.8 m | 94.8 m | 99.3 m | 132.0 m | 104.6 m | 114.0 m |
| Interest expense | 17.8 m | 18.5 m | 15.8 m | 17.4 m | 19.2 m | 18.7 m | 16.5 m | 19.7 m |
| Pre-tax income | 118.0 m | 347.5 m | 132.9 m | 127.3 m | 138.1 m | 417.9 m | 142.7 m | 242.1 m |
| Income tax | 27.4 m | 86.7 m | 32.0 m | 33.1 m | 33.3 m | 107.5 m | 27.9 m | 57.8 m |
| Net income | 90.6 m | 260.8 m | 100.8 m | 94.2 m | 104.8 m | 310.4 m | 114.7 m | 184.3 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.40 | 4.00 ≈ | 1.58 | 1.47 | 1.63 | 4.82 ≈ | 1.79 | 2.88 |
| Operating cash flow | 110.4 m ≈ | 543.2 m | -28.9 m | 179.4 m ≈ | 143.3 m ≈ | 937.5 m | 61.5 m | 273.2 m ≈ |
| Capex | 166.6 m ≈ | 353.3 m | 409.7 m | 179.5 m ≈ | 253.0 m ≈ | 217.6 m | 288.7 m | 243.7 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 56.5 m ≈ | 62.1 m | 127.6 m | 27.3 m ≈ | 63.3 m ≈ | 60.2 m | 134.3 m | 88.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 26-quarter history (min 25.6, median 33.2, max 260.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.7 bn | 7.3 bn | 5.8 bn | 9.3 bn | 8.7 bn | 9.7 bn | 10.6 bn | 11.6 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +9.3% | −20.9% | +61.7% | −6.6% | +11.8% | +9.3% | +8.8% |
| Net income | 414.7 m | 465.1 m | -216.5 m | 230.1 m | 230.1 m | 339.6 m | 503.6 m | 610.2 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +12.1% | −146.5% | unavailable | 0.0% | +47.6% | +48.3% | +21.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 6.04 | 6.91 | -3.28 | 6.00 | 3.49 | 5.23 | 7.80 | 9.51 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +14.4% | −147.5% | unavailable | −41.8% | +49.9% | +49.1% | +21.9% |
| net % | 6.2% | 6.4% | -3.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% |
| Free cash flow | 343.9 m | 563.4 m | -54.1 m | 480.7 m | 149.0 m | 376.1 m | -17.0 m | 171.6 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Jan 2026
- Cash
- 1.2 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 2.1 bn USD
- Net debt
- 845.8 m USD
- Equity
- 1.8 bn USD
- Total assets
- 9.9 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 1.15x
- Current ratio
- 1.23x
- ROE
- 38.4%
- ROA
- 6.5%
- FCF margin
- 1.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.8 bn | 9.3 bn | 8.7 bn | 9.7 bn | 10.6 bn | 11.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 3.6 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.6 bn | 6.0 bn | 6.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 2.2 bn ≈ | 3.9 bn ≈ | 3.5 bn ≈ | 4.1 bn ≈ | 4.6 bn ≈ | 5.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026derived |
| SG&A | 2.3 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 220.4 m | 249.2 m | 270.4 m | 307.1 m | 347.6 m | 417.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Interest expense | — | — | — | 78.4 m | 69.5 m | 71.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -437.6 m | 545.3 m | 307.5 m | 465.8 m | 674.8 m | 816.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | -221.1 m | 136.5 m | 77.4 m | 126.1 m | 171.2 m | 206.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -216.5 m | 230.1 m | 230.1 m | 339.6 m | 503.6 m | 610.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -3.28 | 6.00 | 3.49 | 5.23 | 7.80 | 9.51 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 66.0 m | 68.1 m | 65.9 m | 64.9 m | 64.6 m | 64.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.4 bn | 1.1 bn | 872.6 m | 925.4 m | 994.7 m | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 62.2 m | 54.1 m | 71.1 m | 74.4 m | 88.1 m | 105.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 740.8 m | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.4 bn | 3.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 47.1 m | 47.1 m | 47.1 m | 47.1 m | 47.1 m | 47.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 6.8 bn | 7.1 bn | 7.3 bn | 7.7 bn | 8.8 bn | 9.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 862.6 m | 1.1 bn | 955.8 m | 956.4 m | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 3.9 m | 14.4 m | 13.6 m | 13.7 m | 170.9 m | 50.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 2.1 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 464.8 m † | 760.4 m † | 794.9 m † | 996.9 m † | 1.4 bn † | 1.8 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 219.2 m | 833.2 m | 596.4 m | 868.7 m | 863.4 m | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 273.3 m | 352.5 m | 447.4 m | 492.6 m | 880.4 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -54.1 m ≈ | 480.7 m ≈ | 149.0 m ≈ | 376.1 m ≈ | -17.0 m ≈ | 171.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -274.1 m | -344.4 m | -423.1 m | -503.7 m | -882.3 m | -1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 1.0 bn | -778.0 m | -391.7 m | -318.8 m | 88.2 m | 61.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 65.5 m | 266.6 m | 316.9 m | 243.2 m | 256.3 m | 278.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 16.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
58% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 70.96 – 251.40 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)121.36 – 178.96 (Mid 143.85)WACC 9.3% · starting FCFF 468.7 m USD · terminal value share of EV 73%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E188.35 – 251.40 (Mid 204.88)9 companies used · median multiple 18.4x · quartiles 16.9x – 22.6xBJ, DG, DLTR, FIVE, KSS, M, OLLI, PSMT, TGT
- Dividend discount (DDM)70.96 – 95.43 (Mid 81.40)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 5.8% | 62 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 57.8% | 40 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 9.9% | 83 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 39.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.2x | 31 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 23.2x | 36 (vs peers) | 18% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 2.5% | 32 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.1% | 30 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial31/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth91/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality51/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial30/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation34/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
BURLINGTON STORES, INC. (BURL). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-08-01.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 11.6 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 8.8%; net margin 5.8%; ROE 41.4%.
The estimated value range is 121.36–178.96 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 143.85 USD, the price of 258.38 USD leaves a potential of -44.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -79.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 9.9%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 39.7%
What contradicts it
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
General merchandise stores (SIC 53xx) · same major group (2-digit SIC) · compared with 13 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMTWalmart Inc. | 1,024.8 bn | 46.6 | 23.4% | 3.0% | +4.7% | +17% / +149% |
| COSTCostco Wholesale Corp | 463.7 bn | 50.4 | 28.4% | 3.0% | +10.1% | +15% / +77% |
| TGTTarget Corporation | 74.1 bn | 16.9 | 26.4% | 4.1% | −1.7% | +80% / +22% |
| DGDollar General Corp | 31.2 bn | 18.4 | 19.7% | 3.9% | +5.2% | +29% / +8% |
| DLTRDollar Tree, Inc. | 27.6 bn | 17.9 | 45.9% | 8.0% | +10.4% | +33% / +19% |
| BURLBurlington Stores, Inc. | 16.2 bn | 23.2 | 41.4% | 5.8% | +8.8% | −5% / +95% |
| BJBj’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. | 14.0 bn | 24.3 | 27.7% | 2.6% | +4.7% | +24% / +72% |
| FIVEFive Below, Inc. | 13.9 bn | 22.6 | 28.3% | 11.7% | +22.9% | +53% / +34% |
| MMacy's, Inc. | 6.7 bn | 9.4 | 16.0% | 3.3% | −1.7% | +15% / +62% |
| OLLIOllie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. | 5.6 bn | 21.0 | 14.9% | 9.8% | +16.6% | −24% / +28% |
| PSMTPriceSmart, Inc. | 5.1 bn | 30.6 | 12.3% | 2.8% | +11.5% | +34% / +145% |
| KSSKohl’s Corp | 2.9 bn | 10.9 | 6.7% | 1.7% | −4.3% | +3% / +8% |
| MNSOMINISO Group Holding Limited | — | — | 26.9% | 15.4% | +48.1% | −48% / −59% |
| DDSDillard’s, Inc. | — | — | 33.8% | 10.3% | −0.4% | −5% / +83% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for BURL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 164.74 Total return -36% · Per year -36% | 290.52 Total return 12% · Per year 12% | 436.61 Total return 69% · Per year 69% |
| 3 years | 177.87 Total return -31% · Per year -12% | 351.19 Total return 36% · Per year 11% | 576.90 Total return 123% · Per year 31% |
| 5 years | 192.05 Total return -26% · Per year -6% | 424.55 Total return 64% · Per year 10% | 762.26 Total return 195% · Per year 24% |
- Exit P/E± 87.80
- Net margin± 61.46
- Annual revenue growth± 47.95
- Annual dilution± 5.16
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Burlington Stores is an off-price retailer with well over a thousand stores across the United States, Puerto Rico and D.C., selling branded merchandise at up to 60% below other retailers' prices 1. With total sales growth of 11% in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 and a raised adjusted EPS outlook 3, the company shows how its opportunistic buying model can convert sales growth into margin, though comparable store growth remains modest.
SWOT
Strengths
- The off-price model allows flexible, seasonal and opportunistic buying, which helps the company secure better terms from suppliers 1.
- Gross margin and earnings per share growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 show that sales growth can be converted into profitability 3.
- The store network is geographically spread and supported by owned and leased distribution centers, giving operational scale 1.
Weaknesses
- The company operates only in physical stores, which exposes it more than rivals with strong online channels 1.
- Sales are concentrated in the second half of the year, making quarterly results volatile because of seasonality 1.
- Comparable store growth remained modest in the second quarter, and sales growth relied heavily on new store openings rather than traffic 3.
Opportunities
- If store openings continue toward the 2,000-store target, the company could meaningfully expand its sales base 1.
- Store redesigns and the smaller format could improve productivity and reduce occupancy costs 12.
- If inflation declines, core customers could spend more, and higher-income shoppers could return to off-price retailers 2.
Threats
Risks
- Consumer spending under pressurehigh
A slowdown in the US economy or rising unemployment could reduce spending by lower-income customers, the core of the business 12.
- Tariffs and trade uncertaintyhigh
Tariffs and trade policy could raise merchandise costs, and the final outcome of refunds remains uncertain after the Supreme Court decision 1.
- Seasonality and weathermedium
Unseasonable weather during peak seasons could leave inventory mismatched with demand, forcing markdowns and hurting margins 1.
- Intense competitionmedium
Rivals expanding online or copying the off-price model could reduce the company's competitive advantage 1.
- Inventory and lease exposurelow
High inventory levels and lease commitments could lead to write-downs or extra costs if sales do not follow the expected pace 3.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If sales growth continues to convert into higher margins, the company could justify a fast pace of store openings toward its long-term target.
- The opportunistic buying model and power-center locations could keep the chain attractive to value-oriented shoppers even in a competitive environment.
- Raised guidance for fiscal 2026 suggests management sees a stronger operating base, which could support earnings growth.
What would break the thesis
- If comparable store growth stays modest, sales growth could depend largely on new store openings, which may be costly.
- Tariffs and refund uncertainty could affect margins in hard-to-predict ways, and second-quarter earnings could include non-recurring items.
- If online and traditional competitors manage to copy the off-price model, the company's price advantage could become less distinctive.
What to watch
- Comparable store sales and store trafficQ3 2026
- Use of tariff refunds and effect on marginQ4 2026
- Delivery against fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidancenext 10-K
- Inventory levels and reserve inventory trendsQ1 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The buying model chases sales trends: the company purchases less before the season and the balance in-season, allowing it to shift purchases between suppliers and categories quickly 1. Six distribution centers, three on the east coast and three on the west coast, shipped more than 99% of merchandise units to stores in fiscal 2025 1. No brand accounted for more than 5% of net purchases in fiscal 2023 through 2025 1, and the company has no long-term purchase commitments with suppliers 1.
Segments
Market context
The company describes the US retail apparel and home furnishings market as highly fragmented and competitive, with rivals including department stores, off-price retailers, specialty stores, internet retailers and outlet stores 1. It notes that competition is expected to increase, and that full-price chains' markdowns can bring their prices close to those at Burlington 1.
Demand depends on spending by lower-income consumers who face pressure from a higher cost of living and inflation 2. If inflation declines, core customers could benefit, while if economic growth slows, moderate and higher-income shoppers could become more value conscious 2.
Trends
- Demand for valuetailwind
Lower- and middle-income consumers are becoming more price-conscious, which helps an off-price retailer offering brand names at deep discounts 12. If this persists, the low-price model could attract new customers.
- Tariffs and refundsmixed
Tariffs on imports have added uncertainty and merchandise costs. The February 2026 Supreme Court ruling limiting IEEPA tariffs created uncertainty over refunds, yet the company already received refunds in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 13.
- Growing e-commerceheadwind
Online spending continues to grow and competitors can expand digital channels, while Burlington operates exclusively in brick-and-mortar stores 1. If consumers shift further online, competitive pressure on store traffic could increase.
- Seasonal buying and weathermixed
Sales are concentrated in the second half of the year, and weather influences store traffic and demand for certain categories 12. Unseasonable temperatures could leave inventory mismatched, making seasonality an ongoing risk factor.
Competitive position
Burlington competes with department stores, off-price retailers, traditional full-price chains that have developed off-price concepts, specialty stores, internet retailers and outlet stores 1. The company says some competitors are larger or more experienced in certain product lines, and they may seek to emulate its strategy 1.
Its competitive edge rests on power-center locations, low prices and flexible buying, but these could be reduced if rivals improve their offers or use technology such as artificial intelligence more effectively 1. The company expects competition to intensify 1.
- TJX CompaniesTJX
Off-price retailer with similar concepts, named in the category of rivals competing for customers and locations.
- Ross StoresROST
Off-price retailer referenced among retailers competing with Burlington for customers and sites.
- Department stores and traditional chains
Full-price chains that offer brand names at substantial markdowns, sometimes near Burlington's prices.
- Internet retailers
Digital channels that capture consumer spending and compete directly for shoppers comparing prices quickly.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Burlington’s (BURL) Discount Playbook Keeps Delivering Even As Weather LoomsYahoo Finance — News · 01 Sept 2026 · EN
- Burlington (BURL) Q2 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptYahoo Finance — News · 31 Aug 2026 · EN
- Burlington (BURL) Will Reinvest Its $55M Tariff Refund. Can Lower Prices Reaccelerate Comparable Sales?Yahoo Finance — News · 29 Aug 2026 · EN
- Burlington Stores, Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call SummaryYahoo Finance — News · 27 Aug 2026 · EN
- Burlington Stores Q2 2026 earnings: tariff refunds to lower pricesYahoo Finance — News · 27 Aug 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Quarterly report27 Aug 2026
- Current report27 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report04 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Other events
- Quarterly report28 May 2026
- Current report28 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report26 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Proxy statement02 Apr 2026
- Annual report19 Mar 2026
- Current report13 Mar 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report05 Mar 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-01-31 · SEC / Burlington Stores, Inc. · 19 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-08-01 · SEC / Burlington Stores, Inc. · 27 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Burlington Stores, Inc. · 27 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.