olivLaw · US equity research
CME Group Inc. CME
Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services · SIC 6200 · Vertical: Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services (SIC 6200)
CME Group is the world's leading derivatives marketplace, headquartered in Chicago, offering futures, options, cash and OTC products and operating a central counterparty clearing house. Total revenues reached 1737.3 million USD in the third quarter of 2026, up 13% year on year. Revenue is dominated by clearing and transaction fees, which depend on contract volume.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, CME Group Inc. (CME) stock was 307.24 USD (−0.33% on the day), with market capitalisation 20.5 bn USD, P/E 25.1 on diluted EPS of 12.23 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.68%, beta -0.15, 52-week range 218.58–326.46 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.7 bn USD (+13.0% YoY), net income of 1.0 bn USD (+14.2% YoY), diluted EPS 2.89 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 66.0
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 276.49 – 315.71
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.78 · band width 13.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 282.60 / 280.76
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 7.87 / 7.39
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +13.7% | −5.9% | +19.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | +16.2% | −4.6% | +20.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | +7.1% | +0.2% | +6.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +12.5% | +7.4% | +5.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +14.6% | +8.2% | +6.4 pp | +10.6% |
| 3 years | +44.2% | +68.4% | −24.2 pp | +35.4% |
| 5 years | +38.6% | +56.5% | −18.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn |
| Operating income | 947.1 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 972.6 m | 1.0 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn |
| Interest expense | 40.7 m | 41.7 m | 44.0 m | 44.0 m | 43.7 m | 43.6 m | 43.6 m | 43.5 m |
| Pre-tax income | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn |
| Income tax | 222.0 m | 288.6 m | 305.2 m | 269.0 m | 395.5 m | 356.6 m | 285.9 m | 317.9 m |
| Net income | 874.6 m | 956.2 m | 1.0 bn | 908.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn |
| Diluted EPS | 2.43 ≈ | 2.62 | 2.81 | 2.49 | 3.28 ≈ | 3.18 | 2.88 | 2.89 |
| Operating cash flow | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn ≈ | 968.1 m ≈ | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 947.1 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 26.2 m | 14.2 m | 18.4 m ≈ | 18.4 m ≈ | 32.5 m | 21.8 m | 23.6 m ≈ | 15.8 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 418.8 m | 2.6 bn | 455.3 m ≈ | 455.3 m ≈ | 455.0 m | 2.7 bn | 468.1 m ≈ | 464.8 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 50 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 12.2, median 25.2, max 39.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.3 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.7 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.6 bn | 6.1 bn | 6.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +18.2% | +13.0% | +0.3% | −4.0% | +7.0% | +11.1% | +9.9% | +6.4% |
| Net income | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.1 bn |
| Net income YoY | −51.7% | +7.9% | −0.5% | +25.2% | +2.0% | +19.9% | +9.3% | +15.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 5.71 | 5.91 | 5.87 | 7.29 | 7.40 | 8.86 | 9.67 | 11.16 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −52.2% | +3.5% | −0.7% | +24.2% | +1.5% | +19.7% | +9.1% | +15.4% |
| net % | 45.5% | 43.5% | 43.1% | 56.2% | 53.6% | 57.8% | 57.5% | 62.5% |
| Free cash flow | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.3 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.2 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 4.4 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 0 USD
- Net debt
- -4.4 bn USD
- Equity
- 28.7 bn USD
- Total assets
- 198.4 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.00x
- Current ratio
- 1.03x
- ROE
- 14.8%
- ROA
- 2.4%
- FCF margin
- 64.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.9 bn | 4.7 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.6 bn | 6.1 bn | 6.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 153.2 m | 147.8 m | 134.9 m | 126.0 m | 115.1 m | 107.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 2.8 bn ≈ | 2.8 bn ≈ | 3.2 bn ≈ | 3.6 bn ≈ | 4.0 bn ≈ | 4.3 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 166.2 m | 166.9 m | 162.7 m | 159.4 m | 160.9 m | 173.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 2.7 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.5 bn | 5.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 615.7 m | 736.7 m | 799.3 m | 927.4 m | 1.0 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 2.1 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 5.87 | 7.29 | 7.40 | 8.86 | 9.67 | 11.16 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 358.5 m | 358.9 m | 359.2 m | 359.5 m | 359.9 m | 360.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 5.90 | 5.90 | 8.50 | 9.65 | 10.40 | 5.00 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.6 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.9 bn | 4.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 461.3 m | 434.5 m | 483.2 m | 535.6 m | 573.1 m | 639.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 89.3 bn | 161.8 bn | 139.1 bn | 94.9 bn | 103.0 bn | 165.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 579.2 m | 505.3 m | 455.5 m | 409.5 m | 386.2 m | 362.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 10.8 bn | 10.5 bn | 10.5 bn | 10.5 bn | 10.5 bn | 10.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 4.9 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Jul 2026verified |
| Total assets | 124.7 bn | 196.8 bn | 174.2 bn | 129.7 bn | 137.4 bn | 198.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 69.3 m | 48.8 m | 121.4 m | 90.6 m | 79.9 m | 71.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 749.4 m | 16.0 m | 0 | 749.8 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 88.2 bn | 160.4 bn | 137.7 bn | 93.4 bn | 102.3 bn | 160.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 98.3 bn | 169.4 bn | 147.3 bn | 103.0 bn | 111.0 bn | 169.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 26.4 bn | 27.4 bn | 26.9 bn † | 26.7 bn † | 26.5 bn † | 28.7 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 2.7 bn | 2.4 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.7 bn | 4.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 197.5 m | 127.2 m | 89.7 m | 76.4 m | 94.0 m | 83.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 2.5 bn ≈ | 2.3 bn ≈ | 3.0 bn ≈ | 3.4 bn ≈ | 3.6 bn ≈ | 4.2 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -175.5 m | 58.4 m | -489.8 m | 20.9 m | -82.6 m | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 47.2 bn | 69.9 bn | -25.4 bn | -48.3 bn | 5.1 bn | 56.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 78 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 20.5 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet67
- Returns75
- Quality99
- Growth87
- Valuation63
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 65.71 – 311.92 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E205.88 – 311.92 (Mid 290.49)9 companies used · median multiple 23.7x · quartiles 16.8x – 25.5xBGC, CBOE, GSIW, ICE, LPLA, MRX, NDAQ, SNEX, TW
- Dividend discount (DDM)65.71 – 88.36 (Mid 75.37)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 78/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 63.3% | 100 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 98.1% | 97 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 9.1% | 76 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 14.7% | 98 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 26.2x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 18 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 25.1x | 33 (vs peers) | 15% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 21.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 20.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 94.3% | 37 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet67/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth87/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality99/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns75/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation63/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
Memo
CME GROUP INC. (CME). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 6.5 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 6.4%; net margin 63.3%; ROE 16.1%.
The estimated value range is 135.79–200.14 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 182.93 USD, the price of 307.24 USD leaves a potential of -40.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -68.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 78/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 63.3%
- FCF conversion: 98.1%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 9.1%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 14.7%
- Interest coverage: 26.2x
- FCF yield: 21.2%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 20.0%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 1.0x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services (SIC 6200) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 15 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICEIntercontinental Exchange, Inc. | 97.2 bn | 23.7 | 14.2% | 29.6% | +7.5% | +11% / +53% |
| NDAQNasdaq, Inc. | 59.3 bn | 29.2 | 17.4% | 22.8% | +11.6% | +17% / +91% |
| CBOECboe Global Markets, Inc. | 36.8 bn | 25.1 | 27.4% | 28.0% | +15.1% | +37% / +94% |
| LPLALPL Financial Holdings Inc. | 23.4 bn | 17.3 | 25.7% | 6.8% | +37.2% | −15% / +35% |
| SNEXStoneX Group Inc. | 6.5 bn | 12.3 | 21.9% | 0.3% | +32.5% | +33% / +196% |
| MRXMarex Group Ltd | 4.7 bn | 16.8 | 28.7% | 14.5% | +26.9% | +87% / unavailable |
| TOPTop Financial Group Limited | 438.2 m | — | -1.0% | -23.3% | +41.9% | +113% / −46% |
| EBONEbang International Holdings Inc. | 182.3 m | — | -5.6% | -215.6% | +11.4% | −52% / −75% |
| GSIWGarden Stage Limited | 162.5 m | 7.5 | -89.5% | -190.1% | +33.2% | −65% / unavailable |
| WTFWaton Financial Limited | 94.5 m | — | -87.9% | -136.7% | +48.8% | −41% / unavailable |
| STEXStreamex Corp. | 38.0 m | — | -705.4% | — | +122.2% | −93% / −87% |
| SOSSOS Limited | 20.9 m | — | -22.7% | -63.1% | −33.3% | −85% / −100% |
| CMECme Group Inc. | — | 25.1 | 16.1% | 63.3% | +6.4% | +15% / +44% |
| PLUTPlutus Financial Group Limited | — | — | -55.3% | -377.3% | +6.9% | −64% / unavailable |
| BGCBGC Group, Inc. | — | 25.5 | 19.5% | 6.0% | +30.0% | +20% / +61% |
| TWTradeweb Markets Inc. | 0 | 29.9 | 14.1% | 39.8% | +18.9% | +17% / +32% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CME from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 1,029.26 Total return 251% · Per year 251% | 1,815.79 Total return 513% · Per year 513% | 2,729.80 Total return 815% · Per year 815% |
| 3 years | 1,093.69 Total return 307% · Per year 60% | 2,161.83 Total return 675% · Per year 98% | 3,554.72 Total return 1,147% · Per year 132% |
| 5 years | 1,162.16 Total return 366% · Per year 36% | 2,573.83 Total return 868% · Per year 57% | 4,628.92 Total return 1,580% · Per year 76% |
- Exit P/E± 540.46
- Net margin± 378.32
- Annual revenue growth± 297.40
- Annual dilution± 31.79
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
CME Group is the world's leading derivatives marketplace, headquartered in Chicago, offering futures, options, cash and OTC products and operating a central counterparty clearing house. Total revenues reached 1737.3 million USD in the third quarter of 2026, up 13% year on year 23. Revenue is dominated by clearing and transaction fees, which depend on contract volume 12.
SWOT
Strengths
- Leading position in futures and options, with deep liquidity and repeated volume records.
- In-house clearing house provides counterparty guarantee and margin efficiency for clients.
- Diversification into market data and cash markets brings recurring revenue and global reach.
Weaknesses
- Revenue depends heavily on trading volume, which can fall in quieter periods.
- A single clearing member accounts for a significant share of clearing and transaction fee revenue.
- Compliance costs and governance structure are under pressure from large clients.
Opportunities
- SEC clearing requirements for Treasury and repo could open new revenue through CMESC.
- Expansion in the Middle East, Asia, Europe and energy transition products could add volume.
- The Google Cloud partnership and retail prediction products could create new distribution channels.
Threats
- Pressure from large clearing firms to move clearing toward a non-profit structure could reduce control.
- Larger or lighter-regulated competitors could offer lower prices and more attractive products.
Risks
- Dependence on trading volumehigh
Revenue fluctuates with volume, and a quiet period in markets could significantly reduce fees.
- Concentration on one clearing membermedium
A single clearing member represents a material share of clearing fees; its withdrawal could affect revenue.
- Regulatory pressuremedium
Regulatory changes or legal interpretations on event contracts could limit the products offered.
- Technology and cyber riskmedium
Platform failures, cyberattacks or the cloud migration could disrupt trading.
- Fee pressurelow
Competition and tariff structure could reduce margins if fees are changed.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Record volumes and rising revenue in 2026 show that demand for risk management remains strong.
- The clearing house position and deep liquidity create competitive barriers that are hard to replicate.
- Data services and new products can diversify revenue and reduce reliance on trading volume.
What would break the thesis
- Revenue depends on volatility; a calmer market could significantly reduce volumes and fees.
- Competitive pressure and a falling average rate per contract could erode margins over time.
- Regulatory changes, including a possible transaction tax, could slow growth.
What to watch
- Launch of the CMESC securities clearing service2026
- Trend in the average rate per contract and volumeQ4 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
CME Group lets clients trade futures, options, cash and OTC products, optimize portfolios and analyze data, through the CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX exchanges 1. In fiscal 2025 average daily volume of futures and options was a record 28.1 million contracts 1. The company also operates the CME clearing house, which becomes counterparty to every trade and limits counterparty credit risk 1.
The company's strategy has three directions: growing futures and options globally, diversifying through cash markets and data services, and delivering operational efficiencies for clients, including through its Google Cloud partnership 1.
Segments
Derivatives exchanges and clearing
The core segment includes futures and options on interest rates, equity indices, foreign exchange, energy, metals, agricultural products and cryptocurrencies, traded mainly on CME Globex 1. In fiscal 2025, 85% of contract volume came from trades by members 1.
Cash markets and data services
Cash markets include BrokerTec for fixed income and repo and EBS for spot FX and spot precious metals, which generated 283.7 million USD of clearing and transaction fees in fiscal 2025 1. Data services provide real-time and historical market data, benchmarks and alternative data, with a significant share of market data revenue from outside the U.S. 1.
Securities clearing
In December 2025 CMESC received SEC approval to become a securities clearing agency, aiming to help participants meet clearing requirements for U.S. Treasury and repo transactions, with launch expected later in 2026 1.
Market context
The derivatives market was active in 2026, with high volatility driven by inflationary pressure and the Middle East conflict, which lifted volumes in interest rates, equities and metals 2. Average daily volume in the third quarter of 2026 reached 29.4 million contracts, a third-quarter record 3.
Competition comes from other exchanges, OTC markets, crypto and prediction platforms, and technology and data providers 1. Regulatory change and pressure from large clearing firms on clearing house ownership remain points to watch 1.
Trends
- Macroeconomic volatilitytailwind
Economic and geopolitical uncertainty has increased hedging and speculative volumes, and in 2026 Federal Reserve rate increases drove heavy Treasury trading 2. If volatility declines, volumes could return to more moderate levels.
- Pressure on feesheadwind
The average rate per contract declined in 2026, and competitors could offer more competitive pricing, which could reduce margins 12.
- Regulation and clearing requirementsmixed
SEC clearing requirements for Treasury and repo transactions could create new opportunities but also compliance costs and pressure on the business model 1.
Competitive position
CME Group acknowledges competition from futures, securities and options exchanges, OTC markets, clearing organizations, crypto and prediction platforms, and technology providers 1. Larger competitors may respond faster to pricing pressure and exploit regulatory differences 1.
The company argues that its brand, liquidity depth, margin efficiency and product diversity give it an edge, but warns that competitive pressure will keep intensifying 1. Losing major customers or cutting fees could affect profitability 1.
- Intercontinental ExchangeICE
Exchange and data operator, a benchmark competitor in derivatives and market data, grouped among other exchanges in the sources.
- Cboe Global MarketsCBOE
Operator of options and volatility exchanges that competes on options products and trading volumes.
- NasdaqNDAQ
Exchange and market data provider, relevant in index markets and data services.
- Crypto and prediction platforms
New platforms competing for trading volume, especially in crypto and event contracts, explicitly named in the source.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- CME Group to Launch Bitcoin Cash and Uniswap FuturesYahoo Finance — News · 22 Sept 2026 · EN
- Analyzing CME Group’s (CME) Stock Performance Amidst Market VolatilityYahoo Finance — News · 28 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 22 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 23 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report23 Oct 2026
- Current report21 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report25 Sept 2026Amendments to articles or bylaws
- Current report09 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report11 Aug 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report24 Jul 2026
- Current report22 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report17 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report10 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report19 May 2026Shareholder vote
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / CME Group Inc. · 26 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / CME Group Inc. · 23 Oct 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / CME Group Inc. · 21 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.