olivLaw · US equity research
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. ICE
Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services · SIC 6200 · Vertical: Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services (SIC 6200)
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is a global provider of technology and data to financial institutions, corporations and government entities, reporting three segments. In fiscal 2025 revenues less transaction-based expenses were 9.9 billion USD, and the Exchanges segment accounted for 55% of them. In the second quarter of 2026 revenues rose 5% year over year to 2.7 billion USD.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) stock was 174.00 USD (−0.53% on the day), with market capitalisation 97.2 bn USD, P/E 23.7 on diluted EPS of 7.33 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.17%, beta 0.34, 52-week range 122.91–175.10 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 3.6 bn USD (+20.7% YoY), net income of 940.0 m USD (+15.2% YoY), diluted EPS 1.67 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 67.9
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 149.28 – 174.91
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.96 · band width 15.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 158.45 / 154.49
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 4.35 / 2.73
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +13.4% | −5.9% | +19.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | +16.2% | −4.6% | +20.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | +11.5% | +0.2% | +11.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | +7.4% | +7.4% | +0.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +19.0% | +8.2% | +10.8 pp | +9.2% |
| 3 years | +61.4% | +68.4% | −7.0 pp | +35.4% |
| 5 years | +27.9% | +56.5% | −28.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.0 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.6 bn |
| SG&A | 75.0 m | 76.0 m | 66.0 m | 77.0 m | 74.0 m | 85.0 m | 63.0 m | 74.0 m |
| Operating income | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 389.0 m | 389.0 m | 395.0 m | 387.0 m | 389.0 m | 384.0 m | 389.0 m | 399.0 m |
| Interest expense | 213.0 m | 206.0 m | 201.0 m | 192.0 m | 204.0 m | 203.0 m | 205.0 m | 222.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 905.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn |
| Income tax | 196.0 m | 255.0 m | 267.0 m | 250.0 m | 204.0 m | 465.0 m | 312.0 m | 286.0 m |
| Net income | 698.0 m | 797.0 m | 851.0 m | 816.0 m | 851.0 m | 1.4 bn | 958.0 m | 940.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.21 ≈ | 1.38 | 1.48 | 1.42 | 1.49 ≈ | 2.48 | 1.69 | 1.67 |
| Operating cash flow | 1.5 bn | 966.0 m | 1.5 bn ≈ | 915.0 m ≈ | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 2.0 bn ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 194.0 m | 85.0 m | 60.0 m ≈ | 62.0 m ≈ | 166.0 m | 64.0 m | 144.0 m ≈ | 110.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 259.0 m | 278.0 m | 277.0 m | 276.0 m | 274.0 m | 297.0 m | 294.0 m | 293.0 m |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 241.0 m | 255.0 m ≈ | 398.0 m ≈ | 400.0 m | 551.0 m | 651.0 m ≈ | 400.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 52 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 0.0, median 23.7, max 40.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.3 bn | 6.5 bn | 8.2 bn | 9.2 bn | 9.6 bn | 9.9 bn | 11.8 bn | 12.6 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +7.4% | +4.3% | +25.9% | +11.2% | +5.1% | +2.8% | +18.8% | +7.5% |
| Net income | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | 4.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.3 bn |
| Net income YoY | −21.3% | −2.8% | +8.1% | +94.3% | −64.4% | +63.8% | +16.3% | +20.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 3.43 | 3.42 | 3.77 | 7.18 | 2.58 | 4.19 | 4.78 | 5.77 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −19.3% | −0.3% | +10.2% | +90.5% | −64.1% | +62.4% | +14.1% | +20.7% |
| net % | 31.7% | 29.5% | 25.3% | 44.3% | 15.0% | 23.9% | 23.4% | 26.2% |
| Free cash flow | 2.4 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.4 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.3 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 837.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 19.6 bn USD
- Net debt
- 18.8 bn USD
- Equity
- 29.0 bn USD
- Total assets
- 136.9 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.68x
- Current ratio
- 1.02x
- ROE
- 11.7%
- ROA
- 2.4%
- FCF margin
- 33.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8.2 bn | 9.2 bn | 9.6 bn | 9.9 bn | 11.8 bn | 12.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 185.0 m | 215.0 m | 226.0 m | 266.0 m | 307.0 m | 293.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 3.0 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.7 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 751.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 3.8 bn ≈ | 4.5 bn ≈ | 4.7 bn ≈ | 4.9 bn ≈ | 5.8 bn ≈ | 6.5 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 357.0 m | 423.0 m | 616.0 m | 808.0 m | 910.0 m | 803.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 2.8 bn | 5.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 658.0 m | 1.6 bn | 310.0 m | 456.0 m | 826.0 m | 976.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 2.1 bn | 4.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 3.77 | 7.18 | 2.58 | 4.19 | 4.78 | 5.77 | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 555.0 m | 565.0 m | 561.0 m | 565.0 m | 576.0 m | 575.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.20 | 1.32 | 1.52 | 1.68 | 1.80 | 1.92 | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 583.0 m | 607.0 m | 1.8 bn | 899.0 m | 844.0 m | 837.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 87.2 bn | 154.3 bn | 156.9 bn | 85.0 bn | 89.1 bn | 85.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 21.3 bn | 21.1 bn | 21.1 bn | 30.6 bn | 30.6 bn | 30.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 14.4 bn | 13.7 bn | 13.1 bn | 17.3 bn | 16.3 bn | 15.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 126.2 bn | 193.5 bn | 194.3 bn | 136.1 bn | 139.4 bn | 136.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 639.0 m | 703.0 m | 866.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 2.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 4.0 m | 2.0 bn | 3.0 bn | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 14.1 bn | 12.4 bn | 18.1 bn | 20.7 bn | 17.3 bn | 18.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 88.0 bn | 153.4 bn | 149.2 bn | 84.6 bn | 89.6 bn | 84.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 106.6 bn | 170.8 bn | 171.6 bn | 110.3 bn | 111.7 bn | 107.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 19.5 bn | 22.7 bn | 22.8 bn | 25.8 bn | 27.7 bn | 29.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 2.9 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 207.0 m | 179.0 m | 225.0 m | 190.0 m | 406.0 m | 373.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 2.7 bn ≈ | 2.9 bn ≈ | 3.3 bn ≈ | 3.4 bn ≈ | 4.2 bn ≈ | 4.3 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -10.4 bn | -786.0 m | 677.0 m | -8.8 bn | -921.0 m | -4.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 26.0 bn | 62.0 bn | -1.8 bn | -64.3 bn | 79.0 m | -6.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 669.0 m | 747.0 m | 853.0 m | 955.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 1.2 bn | 250.0 m | 632.0 m | 0 | 0 | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 59 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 97.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet42
- Returns68
- Quality75
- Growth89
- Valuation39
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 25.23 – 244.59 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)134.30 – 244.59 (Mid 175.49)WACC 8.4% · starting FCFF 5.9 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 76%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 9.2%
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
- Peers: P/E123.32 – 186.84 (Mid 183.84)9 companies used · median multiple 25.1x · quartiles 16.8x – 25.5xBGC, CBOE, CME, GSIW, LPLA, MRX, NDAQ, SNEX, TW
- Dividend discount (DDM)25.23 – 33.93 (Mid 28.94)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 59/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 8.8% | 53 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 29.6% | 86 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 126.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 9.5% | 79 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 30.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 3.1x | 26 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 6.8x | 82 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 19 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 23.7x | 56 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 16.5x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 5.4% | 68 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.2% | 46 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 21.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet42/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth89/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality75/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns68/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation39/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE, INC. (ICE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 12.6 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 7.5%; net margin 29.6%; ROE 14.2%; net debt/EBITDA 3.1x.
The estimated value range is 123.32–186.84 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 175.49 USD, the price of 174.00 USD leaves a potential of 0.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 0.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 59/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 29.6%
- FCF conversion: 126.8%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 9.5%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 30.8%
- Interest coverage: 6.8x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 21.9%
What contradicts it
- Net debt / EBITDA: 3.1x
- Current ratio: 1.0x
- EV/EBITDA: 16.5x
Versus the vertical median
Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services (SIC 6200) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 15 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICEIntercontinental Exchange, Inc. | 97.2 bn | 23.7 | 14.2% | 29.6% | +7.5% | +19% / +61% |
| NDAQNasdaq, Inc. | 59.3 bn | 29.2 | 17.4% | 22.8% | +11.6% | +17% / +91% |
| CBOECboe Global Markets, Inc. | 36.8 bn | 25.1 | 27.4% | 28.0% | +15.1% | +37% / +94% |
| LPLALPL Financial Holdings Inc. | 23.4 bn | 17.3 | 25.7% | 6.8% | +37.2% | −15% / +35% |
| SNEXStoneX Group Inc. | 6.5 bn | 12.3 | 21.9% | 0.3% | +32.5% | +33% / +196% |
| MRXMarex Group Ltd | 4.7 bn | 16.8 | 28.7% | 14.5% | +26.9% | +87% / unavailable |
| TOPTop Financial Group Limited | 438.2 m | — | -1.0% | -23.3% | +41.9% | +113% / −46% |
| EBONEbang International Holdings Inc. | 182.3 m | — | -5.6% | -215.6% | +11.4% | −52% / −75% |
| GSIWGarden Stage Limited | 162.5 m | 7.5 | -89.5% | -190.1% | +33.2% | −65% / unavailable |
| WTFWaton Financial Limited | 94.5 m | — | -87.9% | -136.7% | +48.8% | −41% / unavailable |
| STEXStreamex Corp. | 38.0 m | — | -705.4% | — | +122.2% | −93% / −87% |
| SOSSOS Limited | 20.9 m | — | -22.7% | -63.1% | −33.3% | −85% / −100% |
| CMECme Group Inc. | — | 25.1 | 16.1% | 63.3% | +6.4% | +9% / +41% |
| PLUTPlutus Financial Group Limited | — | — | -55.3% | -377.3% | +6.9% | −64% / unavailable |
| BGCBGC Group, Inc. | — | 25.5 | 19.5% | 6.0% | +30.0% | +20% / +61% |
| TWTradeweb Markets Inc. | 0 | 29.9 | 14.1% | 39.8% | +18.9% | +17% / +32% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ICE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 109.75 Total return -36% · Per year -36% | 193.58 Total return 13% · Per year 13% | 290.99 Total return 69% · Per year 69% |
| 3 years | 117.41 Total return -29% · Per year -11% | 231.97 Total return 38% · Per year 11% | 381.27 Total return 125% · Per year 31% |
| 5 years | 125.61 Total return -23% · Per year -5% | 277.97 Total return 68% · Per year 11% | 499.57 Total return 198% · Per year 24% |
- Exit P/E± 57.99
- Net margin± 40.59
- Annual revenue growth± 31.81
- Annual dilution± 3.41
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is a global provider of technology and data to financial institutions, corporations and government entities, reporting three segments. In fiscal 2025 revenues less transaction-based expenses were 9.9 billion USD 1, and the Exchanges segment accounted for 55% of them 1. In the second quarter of 2026 revenues rose 5% year over year to 2.7 billion USD 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- A high share of recurring revenues gives stability against transaction volatility. Diversification across several asset classes reduces reliance on any single market.
- The NYSE and the clearing house network are hard to replicate. Clients use data, listings and clearing from ICE together.
- Operating cash flow is strong and allows buybacks alongside technology investment.
Weaknesses
- The Mortgage Technology segment is sensitive to mortgage rates, and its transaction revenues can fall when lending contracts.
- Significant debt means interest expense that weighs on net income.
- Operating and technology costs have risen in recent years, which can limit margins.
Opportunities
- Growing demand for data, indices and analytics could expand the Fixed Income and Data Services segment.
- If markets become more global and continuous, new energy and asset-class products could add revenue.
- Automation of mortgage workflows and artificial intelligence could create new subscription software revenue.
Threats
- New or challenged regulation may change how markets operate and could reduce volumes.
- Competition from global exchanges and new entrants could pressure fees and market share.
- Cyberattacks or system failures could damage client trust and business continuity.
Risks
- Interest rates and debtmedium
The cost of debt rises when rates rise, and refinancing can be more expensive, which reduces net income.
- Mortgages and the Mortgage Technology segmenthigh
A drop in mortgage lending could reduce transaction revenues in this segment.
- Regulationmedium
Regulatory changes across multiple jurisdictions can create uncertainty for market participants and trading volumes.
- Cyber and operational riskhigh
Cyberattacks or technical failures could disrupt trading and clearing.
- Counterparty risklow
If a clearing member defaults, the guaranty funds of the clearing houses could be called on.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Growth in recurring revenues and diversification across asset classes could reduce sensitivity to a single market cycle.
- The NYSE position and clearing network are hard to replicate, and demand for data and automation remains supported.
- Buybacks and solid cash flow could support shareholder value if current trends continue.
What would break the thesis
- If mortgage rates stay high, the Mortgage Technology segment could keep declining.
- High debt and rising technology costs could limit margins over the longer term.
- If market volatility eases, transaction revenues could be weaker than in more turbulent periods.
What to watch
- Recurring revenue guidance for Exchanges and Fixed Income and Data ServicesQ3 2026
- Operating expense trajectory against 2026 guidanceQ3 2026
- Pace of share repurchases against the raised authorizationQ3 2026
- Transaction revenues in Mortgage Technology as mortgage rates evolve2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
ICE operates three segments: Exchanges, Fixed Income and Data Services, and Mortgage Technology. Exchanges runs regulated markets for derivatives and securities, including the NYSE, and six clearing houses 1. Fixed Income and Data Services provides bond pricing, reference data, indices and CDS clearing, while Mortgage Technology offers digital tools for the U.S. residential mortgage market 1. The company was founded in 2000 and describes itself as a Fortune 500 company 1.
Segments
Market context
ICE is active in global derivatives, equities, bonds and U.S. residential mortgage markets. The company says market volatility lifted trading in energy, rates and CDS 1. Demand for data and automation is supported by growing regulation and the shift to passive investing 1.
Competition is intensifying through consolidation of global markets and new entrants; ICE cites competition from exchanges and non-traditional providers 12. Demand for connectivity and data capacity keeps rising, requiring ongoing technology investment 1.
Trends
- Market volatility and trading activitymixed
Volatility in 2025 lifted trading in energy, rates, equities and CDS, and ICE states it is not dependent on any one asset class 1. If volatility eases, transaction revenues could be weaker.
- Mortgage ratesheadwind
Higher mortgage rates reduced borrowing demand and hit transaction revenues in Mortgage Technology 1. If rates keep rising, the segment could be affected further.
- Demand for data and automationtailwind
Regulation, risk management and artificial intelligence are increasing demand for data and automated workflows 1. This supports the company's recurring revenues.
- Technology costsheadwind
Demand for speed, data and connectivity requires continued technology investment, which can pressure costs 1. Operating expenses rose in 2025 1.
Competitive position
ICE competes with other global exchanges, clearing houses and financial data providers. The company cites consolidation and rising competition among global markets for trading, clearing and listings 1.
Competition also comes from new entrants and non-traditional technology and data providers, which could affect volumes or demand for market data 2. ICE's stated advantage is diversification across asset classes and a high share of recurring revenues 1.
- CME GroupCME
Direct competitor in clearing and trading of derivatives, particularly energy and rates, in the context of global exchange consolidation.
- Cboe Global MarketsCBOE
Competitor in options, securities and market data, in the context of competition for trading and listings.
- NasdaqNDAQ
Competitor for listings and market technology, especially for companies choosing among U.S. exchanges.
- Non-traditional data and technology providers
New entrants named in the risk factors that could compete in data, analytics and mortgage software.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Here’s What Pressured Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)Yahoo Finance — News · 04 Sept 2026 · EN
- Is Intercontinental Exchange Stock Underperforming the Dow?Yahoo Finance — News · 03 Sept 2026 · EN
- Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Stays Resilient Amidst Competition and InnovationYahoo Finance — News · 02 Sept 2026 · EN
- MD Sass Concentrated Value Strategy Exits Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) on Thesis GapYahoo Finance — News · 31 Aug 2026 · EN
- Intercontinental Exchange Director Sells Shares Worth $216,000Yahoo Finance — News · 31 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 04 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 29 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
- Current report29 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 Aug 2026Amendments to articles or bylaws · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 Aug 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report20 Aug 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Jul 2026
- Current report30 Jul 2026Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report30 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report19 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report30 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. · 05 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.