olivLaw · US equity research
TOP Financial Group Limited TOP
Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services · SIC 6200 · Vertical: Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services (SIC 6200)
TOP Financial Group is an online provider of securities and futures trading services, based in Hong Kong, aimed at Asian investors. The company is diversifying through acquisitions in Singapore and Australia, in a setting where its revenue rose from the prior year but remains modest, at 4.7 million USD in fiscal 2026.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, TOP Financial Group Limited (TOP) stock was 11.83 USD (+9.23% on the day), with market capitalisation 438.2 m USD, beta 0.84, 52-week range 3.11–16.73 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2027): revenue of 2.2 m USD (+43.9% YoY), net income of 274.3 k USD (+162.3% YoY), diluted EPS 0.00 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 37.3
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 10.40 – 17.56
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.20 · band width 51.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 14.75 / 8.63
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.89 / -0.43
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −22.0% | −5.9% | −16.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | +10.9% | −4.6% | +15.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | +205.3% | +0.2% | +205.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +135.4% | +7.4% | +128.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +107.5% | +8.2% | +99.3 pp | +9.2% |
| 3 years | −46.2% | +68.4% | −114.7 pp | +40.7% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +56.5% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2027 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q1 '27 | Q2 '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.3 m | 1.5 m | 1.1 m | 2.2 m |
| Operating income | 86.0 k | 104.5 k | -387.0 k | 274.3 k |
| Income tax | — | — | -273.2 k | 83 |
| Net income | 86.0 k | 104.5 k | -113.4 k | 274.3 k |
| Diluted EPS | 0.01 | 0.01 | -0.02 | 0.00 |
| Operating cash flow | 7.1 m | 4.2 m ≈ | 6.0 m | -8.4 m ≈ |
| Capex | — | — | 3.1 k | 6.8 k ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 16.5 m | 16.9 m | 7.8 m | 9.7 m | 8.0 m | 3.3 m | 4.7 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +2.5% | −53.7% | +24.0% | −17.1% | −58.6% | +41.9% |
| Net income | 2.5 m | 5.0 m | 3.5 m | 3.4 m | 1.1 m | -6.0 m | -1.2 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +98.7% | −30.8% | −2.7% | −69.1% | −667.7% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 0.08 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.03 | -0.16 | -0.03 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +112.5% | −29.4% | −16.7% | −70.0% | −633.3% | unavailable |
| net % | 15.4% | 29.8% | 44.6% | 35.0% | 13.1% | -179.3% | -24.8% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | -6.1 m | 17.8 m | -14.5 m | 13.1 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Mar 2026
- Cash
- 13.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 34.2 m USD
- Total assets
- 86.1 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- -3.4%
- ROA
- -1.8%
- FCF margin
- 277.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 16.9 m | 7.8 m | 9.7 m | 8.0 m | 3.3 m | 4.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Operating income | — | — | — | — | -5.8 m | -1.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 5.1 m | 3.6 m | 3.4 m | 987.8 k | -5.8 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Aug 2025verified |
| Income tax | 70.8 k | 88.6 k | 31.5 k | -63.7 k | 146.1 k | -1.8 k | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Net income | 5.0 m | 3.5 m | 3.4 m | 1.1 m | -6.0 m | -1.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.17 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.03 | -0.16 | -0.03 | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 30.0 m | 30.0 m | 34.2 m | 32.3 m | 37.0 m | 37.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Jul 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 4.9 m | 6.2 m | 16.0 m | 25.9 m | 12.2 m | 13.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 18.2 k | 421.3 k | 482.1 k | 458.5 k | 434.0 k | 1.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | — | — | — | — | 26.2 k | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | — | 63.7 k | 63.9 k | 64.3 k | 63.8 k | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Total assets | 10.3 m | 13.9 m | 40.3 m | 57.6 m | 46.8 m | 86.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 3.5 m | 3.7 m | 4.3 m | 17.1 m | 11.9 m | 51.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Equity | 6.8 m † | 10.2 m † | 36.0 m † | 40.5 m | 34.9 m | 34.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | 30.0 m | 35.0 m | 37.0 m | 37.0 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Aug 2025verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 4.3 m | 1.6 m | -6.0 m | 17.8 m | -14.5 m | 14.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Capex | — | — | 86.4 k | 6.1 k | 3.2 k | 899.5 k | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | — | — | -6.1 m ≈ | 17.8 m ≈ | -14.5 m ≈ | 13.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Jul 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -16.3 k | -413.9 k | -6.5 m | -1.3 m | -9.4 m | 1.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -2.3 m | — | 22.5 m | 4.4 m | — | 990.8 k | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Jul 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 5.2 m | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Aug 2022verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 22.9% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 438.2 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
23% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 22.9% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -23.3% | 36 (vs peers) | 27% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -21.3% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 36% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -0.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 36% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial36/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
TOP FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED (TOP). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.7 m USD in 2026; YoY growth 41.9%; net margin -23.3%; ROE -1.0%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 22.9% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -21.3%
- FCF yield: -0.1%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services (SIC 6200) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 15 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICEIntercontinental Exchange, Inc. | 97.2 bn | 23.7 | 14.2% | 29.6% | +7.5% | +11% / +53% |
| NDAQNasdaq, Inc. | 59.3 bn | 29.2 | 17.4% | 22.8% | +11.6% | +17% / +91% |
| CBOECboe Global Markets, Inc. | 36.8 bn | 25.1 | 27.4% | 28.0% | +15.1% | +37% / +94% |
| LPLALPL Financial Holdings Inc. | 23.4 bn | 17.3 | 25.7% | 6.8% | +37.2% | −15% / +35% |
| SNEXStoneX Group Inc. | 6.5 bn | 12.3 | 21.9% | 0.3% | +32.5% | +33% / +196% |
| MRXMarex Group Ltd | 4.7 bn | 16.8 | 28.7% | 14.5% | +26.9% | +87% / unavailable |
| TOPTop Financial Group Limited | 438.2 m | — | -1.0% | -23.3% | +41.9% | +108% / −46% |
| EBONEbang International Holdings Inc. | 182.3 m | — | -5.6% | -215.6% | +11.4% | −52% / −75% |
| GSIWGarden Stage Limited | 162.5 m | 7.5 | -89.5% | -190.1% | +33.2% | −65% / unavailable |
| WTFWaton Financial Limited | 94.5 m | — | -87.9% | -136.7% | +48.8% | −41% / unavailable |
| STEXStreamex Corp. | 38.0 m | — | -705.4% | — | +122.2% | −93% / −87% |
| SOSSOS Limited | 20.9 m | — | -22.7% | -63.1% | −33.3% | −85% / −100% |
| CMECme Group Inc. | — | 25.1 | 16.1% | 63.3% | +6.4% | +9% / +41% |
| PLUTPlutus Financial Group Limited | — | — | -55.3% | -377.3% | +6.9% | −64% / unavailable |
| TWTradeweb Markets Inc. | 0 | 29.9 | 14.1% | 39.8% | +18.9% | +17% / +32% |
| BGCBGC Group, Inc. | — | 25.5 | 19.5% | 6.0% | +30.0% | +20% / +61% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TOP from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 17 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).
In brief
TOP Financial Group is an online provider of securities and futures trading services, based in Hong Kong, aimed at Asian investors. The company is diversifying through acquisitions in Singapore and Australia, in a setting where its revenue rose from the prior year but remains modest, at 4.7 million USD in fiscal 2026 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company offers a low-latency trading platform, access to several exchanges and round-the-clock client service, which supports loyalty among professional clients 1.
- A network of shareholder relationships with high-net-worth individuals helps attract clients without significant marketing spend 1.
- Licences from regulators in Hong Kong and Singapore, together with an Australian licence, give the company a regulated base for expansion 1.
Weaknesses
- The company has reported net losses in recent years, and its revenue remains small relative to its costs 1.
- A significant share of revenue comes from a small number of clients, making results vulnerable to the loss of any of them 1.
- Operations are concentrated in Hong Kong, exposing the company to the economic and regulatory risks of a single market 1.
Opportunities
- Expansion in Southeast Asia and new CFD, trust and consultancy offerings could diversify revenue sources 1.
- The client base of retail investors across Asia could grow if the company attracts smaller clients who pay higher commissions 1.
- Funds raised through the private placement could support investment in new jurisdictions and technology 1.
Risks
- Dependence on subsidiary dividendsmedium
The company relies on dividends and distributions from its operating subsidiaries to fund its cash needs, and any restriction could limit its activity 1.
- Nasdaq listing riskhigh
The company received a minimum bid price notice and later regained compliance, but a new deficiency could arise if the share price is volatile 1.
- Regulatory and PRC influencehigh
The Chinese government could exercise oversight over the business, and legal changes could affect the offering of shares to foreign investors 1.
- Client concentrationmedium
Loss of a major client or a drop in their trading activity could significantly affect operating results 1.
- Dilution from share issuancesmedium
Share and warrant issuances, including the increase in authorised share capital, could reduce existing shareholders' stakes and weigh on the market price 12.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the diversification into Singapore and Australia turns into stable revenue, the company could reduce its reliance on the Hong Kong economy.
- Growth in active accounts and the launch of CFD products could support revenue growth in the coming years.
- Capital from the private placement could provide the resources needed for investment and a stronger market position.
What would break the thesis
- The company remains loss-making and its revenue is still small, which could make sustaining operations difficult without further funding.
- Dependence on a small number of clients and on the Hong Kong market could amplify the impact of any economic or regulatory slowdown.
- Repeated share issuances and dilution of existing shareholders could pressure the share price and investor confidence.
What to watch
- Trend in revenue and net loss over the coming quartersQ3 2027
- Progress on launching CFD products and trust services in Hong Kong2027
- Compliance with Nasdaq minimum bid price requirementsnext 10-K
- Effects of warrant exercises and dilution on the shareholder structurenext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 17 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).
The business
Through its operating subsidiaries, TOP Financial Group offers online brokerage for trading stocks and futures on international exchanges, including CME, HKFE and SGX 1. It earns revenue mainly from commissions on futures transactions and fees for trading solutions, with clients largely high-volume institutional and individual investors 1. From fiscal 2026 it also reported revenue from lending in Hong Kong through Winrich Finance 1.
Segments
Online securities and futures brokerage
This activity is the core of the company, and the number of revenue-generating accounts rose markedly in fiscal 2026, most of them securities trading accounts 1. Revenue depends on trading volume and commission levels, and the company has said it could have to lower commission rates to stay competitive 1.
Market context
The company operates in the Asian online brokerage market, where competition is intense and many providers already offer free trading 1. Revenue is sensitive to economic conditions in Hong Kong, and the company reported lower revenue in the latest quarter, which it attributed to the local economic slowdown 2.
Trends
- Economic slowdown in Hong Kongheadwind
The decline in revenue was attributed to the economic slowdown in Hong Kong, which could limit trading volumes if it persists 2.
- Diversification into Singapore and Australiatailwind
Acquisitions and new entities in Singapore and Australia aim to diversify the business, and management expects long-term returns from these investments 1.
- Geopolitical and trade tensionsheadwind
Trade tensions between the United States and China, along with tariffs, could affect investor confidence and trading activity given the company's Hong Kong base 1.
- Launch of CFD products and trust servicesmixed
Developing contract for difference products and trust services could open new revenue sources, if they launch as planned in 2027 1.
Competitive position
The company acknowledges it faces larger, better capitalized and more established competitors, including other trading firms and banking institutions 1. Competitive pressure could reduce its market share and margins if it cannot sustain its advantages in technology and service 1.
- Other online brokerages and banks in Hong Kong and Singapore
The company cites competition from larger trading firms and banking institutions without naming them in the sources reviewed 1.
- Platforms offering free trading
The company notes that more online platforms offer free brokerage, which puts pressure on commissions 1.
- Providers of CFD and trust services
As the company expands its CFD and trust offerings, it will compete with specialist providers in these segments 1.
- Fund consultancy and asset management firms
Fund consultancy and asset management services are developing in a market with many established players 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Bloomberg: Russia’s top financial officials privately tell Putin defense spending is unsustainableMeduza English (independent RU/exile) · 01 Jun 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 01 Jun 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 03 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report03 Nov 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report28 Oct 2026
- Current report16 Oct 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report14 Oct 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report09 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report29 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report04 Sept 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report17 Aug 2026
- Current report04 Aug 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 · SEC / TOP Financial Group Limited · 07 Jul 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / TOP Financial Group Limited · 17 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.