olivLaw · US equity research
Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS
Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens) · SIC 3312 · Vertical: Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens) (SIC 3312)
Carpenter Technology makes and distributes premium specialty alloys, including titanium, nickel and cobalt grades, for critical uses in aerospace, defense, medical and energy. In the first fiscal quarter of 2027 it reported its most profitable first quarter in company history, and demand in the commercial aerospace supply chain has risen, which makes its trajectory worth close attention.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) stock was 292.10 USD (−1.56% on the day), with market capitalisation 14.5 bn USD, P/E 25.8 on diluted EPS of 11.34 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.27%, beta 1.62, 52-week range 280.00–619.25 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q1 2027): revenue of 798.2 m USD (+8.8% YoY), net income of 162.5 m USD (+32.7% YoY), diluted EPS 3.25 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 29.1
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 244.45 – 423.91
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.27 · band width 53.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 389.42 / 442.94
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -32.18 / -31.38
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −25.5% | −1.1% | −24.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −48.8% | −0.5% | −48.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | −36.2% | +4.4% | −40.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | −7.2% | +12.3% | −19.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | −4.7% | +13.5% | −18.2 pp | +31.2% |
| 3 years | +338.3% | +76.4% | +261.8 pp | +21.1% |
| 5 years | +791.6% | +63.7% | +728.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q1 2027 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 676.9 m | 727.0 m | 755.6 m | 733.7 m | 728.0 m | 811.5 m | 851.0 m | 798.2 m |
| Gross profit | 177.5 m | 200.8 m | 213.9 m | 216.4 m | 218.3 m | 251.8 m | 268.9 m | 256.3 m |
| SG&A | 58.6 m | 63.0 m | 62.6 m | 63.1 m | 63.1 m | 65.3 m | 62.0 m | 59.9 m |
| Operating income | 118.9 m | 137.8 m | 151.4 m | 153.3 m | 155.2 m | 186.5 m | 206.9 m | 196.4 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 34.3 m | 35.4 m | 35.6 m | 36.0 m | 36.2 m | 36.7 m | 38.3 m | 36.6 m |
| Interest expense | 12.2 m | 12.0 m | 11.8 m | 11.5 m | 10.2 m | 8.7 m | 7.5 m | 7.1 m |
| Pre-tax income | 105.1 m | 122.0 m | 139.1 m | 144.8 m | 130.0 m | 176.7 m | 204.7 m | 192.4 m |
| Income tax | 21.0 m | 26.6 m | 27.4 m | 22.3 m | 24.7 m | 37.1 m | 42.3 m | 29.9 m |
| Net income | 84.1 m | 95.4 m | 111.7 m | 122.5 m | 105.3 m | 139.6 m | 162.4 m | 162.5 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.66 | 1.88 | 2.21 | 2.43 | 2.09 | 2.77 | 3.23 | 3.25 |
| Operating cash flow | 67.9 m ≈ | 74.2 m ≈ | 258.1 m | 39.2 m | 132.2 m ≈ | 193.5 m ≈ | 240.1 m | 52.8 m |
| Capex | 29.3 m | 40.2 m | 58.0 m | 42.6 m | 46.3 m | 68.7 m | 85.1 m | 77.7 m |
| Dividends paid | 10.1 m ≈ | 10.0 m ≈ | 10.1 m | 10.1 m | 10.0 m ≈ | 10.1 m ≈ | 10.1 m | 9.9 m |
| Share repurchases | 8.2 m ≈ | 37.5 m ≈ | 24.1 m | 49.1 m | 32.1 m ≈ | 52.7 m ≈ | 45.2 m | 133.9 m |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 43 percentile of its own 28-quarter history (min 5.6, median 29.7, max 105.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.4 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +10.3% | −8.4% | −32.3% | +24.4% | +38.9% | +8.2% | +4.3% | +8.6% |
| Net income | 167.0 m | 1.5 m | -229.6 m | -49.1 m | 56.4 m | 186.5 m | 376.0 m | 529.8 m |
| Net income YoY | −11.4% | −99.1% | −15,406.7% | unavailable | unavailable | +230.7% | +101.6% | +40.9% |
| Diluted EPS | 3.43 | 0.02 | -4.76 | -1.01 | 1.14 | 3.70 | 7.42 | 10.52 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −12.5% | −99.4% | −23,900.0% | unavailable | unavailable | +224.6% | +100.5% | +41.8% |
| net % | 7.0% | 0.1% | -15.6% | -2.7% | 2.2% | 6.8% | 13.1% | 17.0% |
| Free cash flow | 52.1 m | 60.4 m | 149.5 m | -85.3 m | -67.6 m | 178.3 m | 286.1 m | 362.3 m |
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
- Cash
- 393.3 m USD
- Financial debt
- 690.7 m USD
- Net debt
- 297.4 m USD
- Equity
- 2.2 bn USD
- Total assets
- 3.8 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.31x
- Current ratio
- 3.81x
- ROE
- 25.8%
- ROA
- 14.5%
- FCF margin
- 11.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.0 m | 149.8 m | 337.3 m | 584.3 m | 768.6 m | 955.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| Research & development | 19.7 m | 20.4 m | 24.4 m | 25.6 m | 26.1 m | 27.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| SG&A | 180.2 m | 174.7 m | 204.2 m | 230.2 m | 243.2 m | 253.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| Operating income | -248.6 m | -24.9 m | 133.1 m | 323.1 m | 521.8 m | 702.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 123.6 m | 131.4 m | 131.0 m | 134.6 m | 139.2 m | 147.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -125.0 m ≈ | 106.5 m ≈ | 264.1 m ≈ | 457.7 m ≈ | 661.0 m ≈ | 849.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 32.7 m | 44.9 m | 54.1 m | 51.0 m | 48.4 m | 37.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -297.9 m | -63.1 m | 72.5 m | 211.6 m | 467.3 m | 656.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| Income tax | -68.3 m | -14.0 m | 16.1 m | 25.1 m | 91.3 m | 126.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| Net income | -229.6 m | -49.1 m | 56.4 m | 186.5 m | 376.0 m | 529.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -4.76 | -1.01 | 1.14 | 3.70 | 7.42 | 10.52 | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 48.3 m | 48.5 m | 49.2 m | 50.3 m | 50.7 m | 50.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 287.4 m | 154.2 m | 44.5 m | 199.1 m | 315.5 m | 393.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| Receivables | 308.7 m | 382.3 m | 531.3 m | 562.6 m | 575.5 m | 701.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| Inventories | 425.7 m | 496.1 m | 639.7 m | 735.4 m | 793.8 m | 822.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 241.4 m | 241.4 m | 241.4 m | 227.3 m | 227.3 m | 227.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 43.1 m | 35.2 m | 28.7 m | 15.2 m | 9.5 m | 3.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| Total assets | 3.0 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 142.4 m | 242.1 m | 278.1 m | 263.9 m | 267.4 m | 313.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jan 2024verified |
| Long-term debt | 694.5 m | 691.8 m | 693.0 m | 694.2 m | 695.4 m | 690.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 306.3 m | 375.6 m | 459.4 m | 466.3 m | 483.7 m | 520.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.4 bn † | 1.3 bn † | 1.4 bn † | 1.6 bn † | 1.9 bn † | 2.2 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 250.0 m | 6.0 m | 14.7 m | 274.9 m | 440.4 m | 605.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| Capex | 100.5 m | 91.3 m | 82.3 m | 96.6 m | 154.3 m | 242.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 149.5 m ≈ | -85.3 m ≈ | -67.6 m ≈ | 178.3 m ≈ | 286.1 m ≈ | 362.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -78.9 m | -89.1 m | -82.3 m | -95.9 m | -152.9 m | -242.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -76.1 m | -52.8 m | -40.1 m | -23.3 m | -167.1 m | -286.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 39.1 m | 39.2 m | 39.4 m | 40.0 m | 40.3 m | 40.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | 0 | 0 | 101.9 m | 179.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 67 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 14.5 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation29
- Returns58
- Quality82
- Balance sheet100
- Growth79
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 94.93 – 385.27 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)94.93 – 151.98 (Mid 117.01)WACC 9.1% · starting FCFF 367.9 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDA145.58 – 176.72 (Mid 158.76)4 companies used · median multiple 9.4x · quartiles 8.7x – 10.4xMT, STLD, SXC, TWI
- Peers: P/E179.56 – 385.27 (Mid 276.34)6 companies used · median multiple 24.4x · quartiles 15.8x – 34.0xCMC, MT, MTUS, NUE, STLD, TS
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate10.51 – 14.14 (Mid 12.06)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 67/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 23.6% | 100 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 17.9% | 92 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 59.8% | 43 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 7.0% | 58 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 109.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 100 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 22.2x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.9x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 25.8x | 57 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 16.8x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 2.4% | 29 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.1% | 30 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 11.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth79/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality82/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns58/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation29/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION (CRS). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.1 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 8.6%; net margin 17.9%; ROE 27.8%; net debt/EBITDA 0.6x.
The estimated value range is 145.58–176.72 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 158.76 USD, the price of 292.10 USD leaves a potential of -45.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -84.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 67/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 23.6%
- Net margin: 17.9%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 109.8%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.6x
- Interest coverage: 22.2x
- Current ratio: 3.9x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 11.8%
What contradicts it
- EV/EBITDA: 16.8x
- FCF yield: 2.4%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Versus the vertical median
Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens) (SIC 3312) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 12 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXTernium S.A. | 103.0 bn | 233.6 | 3.6% | 2.7% | −11.6% | +40% / +30% |
| NUENucor Corp | 60.8 bn | 35.6 | 8.2% | 5.4% | +5.7% | +68% / +58% |
| TSTenaris SA | 59.9 bn | 31.0 | 11.6% | 16.1% | −4.3% | +39% / +61% |
| MTArcelorMittal | 47.6 bn | 15.2 | 6.1% | 5.1% | −1.7% | +45% / +148% |
| STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc. | 34.1 bn | 17.7 | 20.8% | 8.8% | +3.6% | +43% / +102% |
| CRSCarpenter Technology Corporation | 14.5 bn | 25.8 | 27.8% | 17.9% | +8.6% | −5% / +338% |
| CMCCommercial Metals Company | 7.3 bn | 11.3 | 14.8% | 7.0% | +20.5% | +4% / +47% |
| SXCSuncoke Energy, Inc. | 886.9 m | — | -8.5% | -2.9% | −5.1% | +60% / +12% |
| MTUSMetallus Inc. | 737.3 m | 35.0 | 3.4% | 1.9% | +6.9% | +6% / −12% |
| TWITitan International, Inc. | 314.6 m | — | -22.9% | -5.7% | −0.9% | −40% / −63% |
| ASTLAlgoma Steel Group Inc. | — | — | -98.5% | -47.2% | −25.4% | +23% / −37% |
| SIMGRUPO SIMEC, S.A.B. de C.V. | — | — | 19.2% | 31.2% | −18.2% | −8% / −15% |
| PKXPosco Holdings Inc. | — | — | 2.1% | 1.5% | −4.7% | −3% / −45% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CRS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 179.52 Total return -38% · Per year -38% | 317.00 Total return 9% · Per year 9% | 476.98 Total return 64% · Per year 64% |
| 3 years | 183.09 Total return -37% · Per year -14% | 362.93 Total return 25% · Per year 8% | 598.32 Total return 106% · Per year 27% |
| 5 years | 186.73 Total return -35% · Per year -8% | 415.52 Total return 44% · Per year 8% | 750.53 Total return 159% · Per year 21% |
- Exit P/E± 90.73
- Net margin± 63.51
- Annual revenue growth± 50.92
- Annual dilution± 5.34
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Carpenter Technology makes and distributes premium specialty alloys, including titanium, nickel and cobalt grades, for critical uses in aerospace, defense, medical and energy. In the first fiscal quarter of 2027 it reported its most profitable first quarter in company history, and demand in the commercial aerospace supply chain has risen, which makes its trajectory worth close attention.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company is a recognized leader in specialty alloys with over 135 years of metallurgical and manufacturing expertise 1. Its own service and distribution network allows just-in-time stocking programs 2.
- Profitability reached record levels in recent years, and cash generation has increased 1. The balance sheet supports share repurchases and capacity investment 1.
- Technical barriers and customer qualification requirements reduce competitive pressure on high-value products 1.
Weaknesses
- Sales are concentrated in aerospace and defense, which exposes the company to the cyclicality of those markets 1.
- The company depends on volatile raw materials from international sources, and delays in recovering costs can affect margins 1.
- Pension and retiree benefit obligations remain significant, and free cash flow was negative in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 13.
Opportunities
- Demand in the aerospace supply chain appears to be accelerating and bookings have risen strongly 3. If this continues, it could support profit growth over the medium term 3.
- The brownfield capacity expansion and better pricing could support profit targets for the coming years 3.
- The energy market and new international channels could bring new customers and products if expansion succeeds 1.
Risks
- Cyclicality of end marketshigh
Demand from aerospace, defense and energy is cyclical and sensitive to economic and political conditions, which could affect results 1.
- Raw material volatilityhigh
Prices and availability of nickel, cobalt and titanium can fluctuate, and delays in cost recovery could reduce margins 12.
- Expansion project executionmedium
If the brownfield project in Alabama is delayed or exceeds budget, profit targets could be postponed 13.
- Environmental and product liabilitymedium
Environmental rules and possible product quality claims could create costs that are not insured 1.
- Collective bargaininglow
Labor agreements covering part of the workforce expire in 2027 and 2029, and failure to reach agreement could cause work stoppages 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The company reported record operating profit and high margins in the SAO segment, and aerospace bookings rose strongly in the first quarter 13. Guidance for fiscal 2027 was maintained, and the fiscal 2029 target points to further profit growth 3.
- Pricing is strengthening overall, and the company can protect margins through surcharges and forward contracts 13.
- If the capacity expansion and production efficiency gains work as planned, the company could turn rising demand into additional profit 3.
What would break the thesis
- Recent profitability relies on a favorable aerospace cycle, and a reversal could quickly reduce results 1.
- Free cash flow was negative in the first quarter because of large investment, which could limit the ability to fund buybacks 3.
- Volatile raw materials and firm price commitments could reduce the company's ability to pass costs on to customers 12.
What to watch
- Second-quarter fiscal 2027 results against the announced operating income rangeQ2 2027
- Whether fiscal 2027 operating income guidance is maintained2027
- Trends in aerospace bookings and pricingnext 10-K
- Progress of the brownfield expansion in Athens, Alabama2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Founded in 1889, Carpenter Technology Corporation manufactures, fabricates and distributes specialty metals, including titanium alloys, powder metals, stainless steels, alloy steels and tool steels 1. The company has two reportable segments: Specialty Alloys Operations, its main premium alloy and stainless steel producer, and Performance Engineered Products, which includes the Dynamet titanium business, Carpenter Additive and distribution operations 1. Net sales in fiscal 2026 were 3124.2 million USD, and the company also runs its own worldwide network of service and distribution centers 1.
No single customer accounted for 10 percent or more of total net sales in the three most recent fiscal years 1. Critical raw materials include nickel, cobalt, chromium, manganese, molybdenum, titanium and iron, whose prices are volatile; the company uses surcharges, indexing and forward contracts to pass part of this to customers 1. About 43 percent of net sales were made under firm price arrangements 2.
The company had approximately 4,500 employees at June 30, 2026, and spent 27.7 million USD on company-sponsored research and development in fiscal 2026 1. Its production is integrated across mills in Pennsylvania, South Carolina and Alabama, which are managed together to optimize efficiency 1.
Segments
Specialty Alloys Operations (SAO)
The SAO segment comprises the main premium alloy and stainless steel manufacturing operations at mills in Reading and Latrobe, Pennsylvania, and in South Carolina and Alabama 1. It generated 782.9 million USD of operating income in fiscal 2026, and in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 its adjusted operating margin was 37.7 percent 3.
Performance Engineered Products (PEP)
The PEP segment includes the Dynamet titanium business, Carpenter Additive and the Latrobe and Mexico distribution businesses, managed with an entrepreneurial structure to respond quickly to market changes 1. Its separate results are not broken out in the reviewed sources, so its profit contribution cannot be estimated from them 1.
Market context
Aerospace and defense accounted for 65 percent of net sales in fiscal 2026, while energy, industrial and consumer markets remain important end uses 1. The aerospace and defense markets are cyclical, but in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 bookings in the aerospace structural and distribution sub-markets rose 49 percent year over year 3.
Trends
- Rising aerospace demandtailwind
Aerospace customers show growing confidence in the industry's ability to ramp up, and bookings in the structural and distribution sub-markets rose sharply 3. If this trend holds, it could support volumes and prices for the company's alloys 3.
- Volatile raw material pricesheadwind
Costs of nickel, cobalt, titanium and other raw materials have fluctuated widely, and delays between cost increases and surcharge recovery can weigh on margins in the short term 1. Firm price contracts amplify this exposure 2.
- Pricing and product mixmixed
Pricing actions and product mix have supported profitability in recent quarters, although surcharges have a dilutive effect on gross margin 1. The effect on results varies from period to period depending on mix 1.
- Capacity expansion projectmixed
The brownfield project in Athens, Alabama requires significant investment, and capital expenditures rose in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 3. If the project is completed on schedule it could support medium-term profit targets, but delays would pressure results 1.
Competitive position
The company states that fewer than ten companies are its major competitors for its high-value products, while for other products there are several dozen smaller producers and numerous foreign producers 1. Entry barriers include metallurgical expertise, customer qualification requirements and technical capabilities 1.
Competition also comes from independent distributors and from substitute materials that can replace finished products in certain applications 1. Competitive pressure depends on global capacity and demand levels, and excess supply could weigh on prices 1.
- Major specialty alloy producers
The company identifies fewer than ten major competitors for its high-value products, without naming them in the reviewed sources.
- Smaller producers and converters
For other products there are several dozen smaller producing and converting companies, according to the filing.
- Foreign specialty metal producers
Numerous companies abroad produce similar materials, which the sources do not identify individually.
- Independent distributors
Several hundred independent distributors sell similar products and compete in certain markets.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Sister June Carpenter , one of the few remaining Shakers , dies in Maine . She was 88 .Surge — GDELT DOC · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- Carpenter 91 - Year - Old Farmhouse Saved from Demolition in Virginia Road Project | World NewsSurge — GDELT DOC · 21 Oct 2026 · RO
- Madonna a revenit la MTV VMA după 23 de ani. A apărut pe scenă alături de Sabrina Carpenter și Charli XCX - tvrinfo.roSurge — Google News · 28 Sept 2026 · RO
- Madonna a revenit la MTV VMA după 23 de ani. A apărut pe scenă alături de Sabrina Carpenter și Charli XCX - TVRInfo.roSurge — Google News · 28 Sept 2026 · RO
- Madonna ROASTS Sabrina Carpenter who is left frantically defending her team as their MTV VMAs 2026 speech goes off the railsSurge — GDELT DOC · 28 Sept 2026 · RO
- Dupa un an cu incasari de 4,2 miliarde de dolari din box office, Tom Holland a inceput repetitiile pentru rolul lui Fred Astaire. Margaret Qualley si Sabrina Carpenter se alatura distributiei. - urban.roSurge — Google News · 27 Sept 2026 · RO
- Sabrina Carpenter în rolul lui Ginger Rogers: adevăratul pariu din biopicul lui Fred Astaire cu Tom Holland - Martin Cid MagazineSurge — Google News · 25 Sept 2026 · RO
- Strength in Specialty: Carpenter Technology’s (CRS) Drive in Aerospace MaterialsYahoo Finance — News · 02 Sept 2026 · EN
- Michael Carpenter, fost înalt oficial la Casa Albă și Pentagon: „Campaniile de pe rețelele sociale amplificate de Kremlin au profitat de incidentele cu drone pentru a promova o narațiune conform căreia România ar trebui pur și simplu să caute un compromis cu Rusia” EXCLUSIVLibertatea.ro · 25 Jun 2026 · RO
- Madonna a lansat un scurtmetraj în care apar Kate Moss și Sabrina Carpenter. Videoclipul a strâns rapid 1,4 milioane de vizualizăriHotNews.ro · 09 Jun 2026 · RO
- Sabrina Carpenter gets restraining order against man who showed up at her homeBBC World News · 02 Jun 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Current report22 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report22 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report22 Oct 2026
- Current report15 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 Oct 2026Shareholder vote
- Proxy statement11 Sept 2026
- Current report25 Aug 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report12 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Annual report12 Aug 2026
- Current report30 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Carpenter Technology Corporation · 12 Aug 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / Carpenter Technology Corporation · 22 Oct 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Carpenter Technology Corporation · 22 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.