olivLaw · US equity research
Grupo Simec, S.A.B. de C.V. SIM
Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens) · SIC 3312 · Vertical: Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens) (SIC 3312)
Grupo Simec is a producer, processor and distributor of SBQ and structural steel with operations in Mexico and Brazil, which ceased steelmaking in the United States in August 2023. Shipments fell to 1933 thousand tons in fiscal 2025, and the company is exposed to US tariffs and the USMCA review scheduled for 2026.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Grupo Simec, S.A.B. de C.V. (SIM) stock was 26.00 USD (+0.00% on the day), with beta 0.27, 52-week range 24.70–34.35 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 42.3
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 24.50 – 29.08
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.33 · band width 17.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 27.90 / 28.43
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.66 / -0.63
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −9.4% | −1.1% | −8.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −13.4% | −0.5% | −13.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | −13.4% | +4.4% | −17.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −12.3% | +12.3% | −24.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | −8.5% | +13.5% | −22.0 pp | +24.5% |
| 3 years | −22.2% | +76.4% | −98.6 pp | +30.2% |
| 5 years | −0.1% | +63.7% | −63.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 28.7 bn | 35.7 bn | 34.2 bn | 35.9 bn | 55.6 bn | 54.2 bn | 41.1 bn | 33.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +4.3% | +24.3% | −4.2% | +5.0% | +55.1% | −2.6% | −24.0% | −18.2% |
| Net income | 1.9 bn | 3.7 bn | 1.6 bn | -2.8 bn | 9.4 bn | 7.9 bn | 4.3 bn | 10.5 bn |
| Net income YoY | −34.8% | +92.8% | −55.1% | −270.6% | unavailable | −16.7% | −45.5% | +144.9% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | -3.52 | 6.04 | 20.41 | 17.00 | 9.28 | 22.71 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +237.9% | −16.7% | −45.4% | +144.7% |
| net % | 6.6% | 10.2% | 4.8% | -7.8% | 17.0% | 14.5% | 10.4% | 31.2% |
| Free cash flow | 144.9 m | 1.2 bn | -228.7 m | 2.7 bn | 7.3 bn | 7.3 bn | 1.8 bn | 3.4 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 29.2 bn MXN
- Financial debt
- unavailable MXN
- Net debt
- unavailable MXN
- Equity
- 59.2 bn MXN
- Total assets
- 73.3 bn MXN
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 4.56x
- ROE
- 19.2%
- ROA
- 15.0%
- FCF margin
- 10.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (MXN)
Margins
Income statement · MXN
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 34.2 bn | 35.9 bn | 55.6 bn | 54.2 bn | 41.1 bn | 33.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 30.1 bn | 29.2 bn | 40.0 bn | 39.7 bn | 31.1 bn | 26.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 4.1 bn | 6.7 bn | 15.7 bn | 14.5 bn | 10.0 bn | 7.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2025verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 1.1 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 1.6 bn | 4.9 bn | 13.8 bn | 11.2 bn | 6.0 bn | 12.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2025verified |
| Income tax | 3.3 bn | 2.1 bn | 4.4 bn | 3.3 bn | 1.7 bn | — | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2024verified |
| Net income | 1.6 bn | -2.8 bn | 9.4 bn | 7.9 bn | 4.3 bn | 10.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | -3.52 | 6.04 | 20.41 | 17.00 | 9.28 | 22.71 | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 4.30 | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 24 May 2021derived |
Balance sheet · MXN
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 7.4 bn | 7.7 bn | 15.1 bn | 21.5 bn | 23.6 bn | 29.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2025verified |
| Receivables | — | — | 443.1 m | 563.6 m | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 01 May 2023verified |
| Inventories | 8.2 bn | 9.1 bn | 11.7 bn | 12.8 bn | 10.2 bn | 11.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2025verified |
| Current assets | 22.4 bn | 24.4 bn | 35.8 bn | 43.5 bn | 41.7 bn | 46.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 16.7 bn | 16.0 bn | 16.0 bn | 16.8 bn | 18.0 bn | 19.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | -2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2025verified |
| Total assets | 44.0 bn | 45.5 bn | 57.3 bn | 67.6 bn | 66.8 bn | 73.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 4.2 bn | 5.3 bn | 6.9 bn | 9.4 bn | 7.4 bn | 4.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | — | — | — | 300.0 k | 300.0 k | — | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2024verified |
| Current liabilities | 7.3 bn | 8.4 bn | 11.1 bn | 15.2 bn | 13.0 bn | 10.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 11.4 bn | 12.5 bn | 15.5 bn | 19.6 bn | 17.0 bn | 14.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2025verified |
| Equity | 32.6 bn | 33.0 bn | 41.8 bn | 48.0 bn | 49.8 bn | 59.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 464.0 m | 463.2 m | 462.6 m | 462.1 m | 461.7 m | 461.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2025verified |
Cash flow · MXN
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.0 bn | 3.6 bn | 8.4 bn | 8.9 bn | 4.3 bn | 5.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2025verified |
| Capex | 1.3 bn | 951.2 m | 1.1 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | -228.7 m ≈ | 2.7 bn ≈ | 7.3 bn ≈ | 7.3 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | 3.4 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -106.7 m | -832.7 m | -1.0 bn | -4.1 bn | -1.3 bn | -277.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -211.1 m | -2.1 bn | -161.9 m | 2.2 bn | -242.8 m | -130.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | — | 2.0 bn | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 24 May 2021verified |
| Share repurchases | 156.1 m | 42.0 m | 74.5 m | 90.1 m | 89.0 m | 126.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
33% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 31.2% | 100 (vs peers) | 19% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 32.6% | 4 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -15.4% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 25% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 3.6% | 24 (on a fixed band) | 25% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 4.6x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth12/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality52/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
GRUPO SIMEC, S.A.B. de C.V. (SIM). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 33.7 bn MXN in 2024; YoY growth -18.2%; net margin 31.2%; ROE 19.2%.
The estimated value range is 205.15–379.09 MXN per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 31.2%
- Current ratio: 4.6x
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: 32.6%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -15.4%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 3.6%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens) (SIC 3312) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 12 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXTernium S.A. | 97.5 bn | 221.1 | 3.6% | 2.7% | −11.6% | +32% / +23% |
| NUENucor Corp | 60.8 bn | 35.6 | 8.2% | 5.4% | +5.7% | +68% / +58% |
| TSTenaris SA | 60.6 bn | 31.4 | 11.6% | 16.1% | −4.3% | +41% / +63% |
| MTArcelorMittal | 46.0 bn | 14.7 | 6.1% | 5.1% | −1.7% | +40% / +140% |
| STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc. | 34.1 bn | 17.7 | 20.8% | 8.8% | +3.6% | +43% / +102% |
| CRSCarpenter Technology Corporation | 13.8 bn | 24.6 | 27.8% | 17.9% | +8.6% | −12% / +294% |
| CMCCommercial Metals Company | 6.8 bn | 10.6 | 14.8% | 7.0% | +20.5% | −2% / +37% |
| SXCSuncoke Energy, Inc. | 823.3 m | — | -8.5% | -2.9% | −5.1% | +49% / +4% |
| MTUSMetallus Inc. | 650.2 m | 30.8 | 3.4% | 1.9% | +6.9% | −7% / −22% |
| TWITitan International, Inc. | 303.7 m | — | -22.9% | -5.7% | −0.9% | −42% / −64% |
| PKXPosco Holdings Inc. | — | — | 2.1% | 1.5% | −4.7% | −8% / −48% |
| SIMGRUPO SIMEC, S.A.B. de C.V. | — | — | 19.2% | 31.2% | −18.2% | −8% / −22% |
| ASTLAlgoma Steel Group Inc. | — | — | -98.5% | -47.2% | −25.4% | +17% / −41% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SIM from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (29 Oct 2026).
In brief
Grupo Simec is a producer, processor and distributor of SBQ and structural steel with operations in Mexico and Brazil, which ceased steelmaking in the United States in August 2023. Shipments fell to 1933 thousand tons in fiscal 2025, and the company is exposed to US tariffs and the USMCA review scheduled for 2026.
SWOT
Strengths
- A solid position as an important SBQ and structural steel producer in Mexico, with well-located plants that reduce freight costs 1.
- Long relationships with customers in the automotive and industrial equipment sectors that buy higher value-added products 1.
- An owned distribution network in Mexico and a capacity base spread across three countries 1.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on the Mexican and Brazilian markets and limited exposure to high-margin products restrict pricing power 1.
- The US assets have been inactive since 2023, creating costs and a burden on the balance sheet 1.
- Lower volumes and average prices in 2025 show revenue sensitivity to the industry cycle 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Trade tariffs and the USMCA reviewhigh
US tariffs on steel imports and a possible renegotiation of the regional trade agreement could affect exports and the cost structure 1.
- Cyclicality of the steel industryhigh
Demand from construction, automotive and energy sectors is sensitive to economic slowdowns, which could reduce volumes and margins 1.
- Energy and raw material price volatilitymedium
Electricity, natural gas and scrap costs can vary significantly, and the company cannot always pass increases on to customers 1.
- Currency exposuremedium
A weaker Mexican peso against the dollar could affect results, and the company does not use derivatives to hedge this currency risk 1.
- Inactive US assetslow
The Republic Steel plants remain inactive, and restarting production depends on economic conditions; any impairment or extra costs could weigh on finances 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If anti-dumping and trade protection are firmly applied, domestic prices could stay steadier and support SBQ margins.
- Investment in Brazil and the new rolling line could open volume growth in the region if construction demand recovers.
- Long-standing automotive customer ties and a leading SBQ position in Mexico could provide stability in uncertain periods.
What would break the thesis
- US tariffs and a possible USMCA revision could reduce exports and strain the company's cost base, affecting profitability.
- Global steel overcapacity and low-priced Asian exports could keep pressure on prices and limit margins.
- Falling automotive volumes and a contracting Mexican steel market could persist if the economy stays weak.
What to watch
- Quarterly results and shipment volume trendsQ1 2027
- Final decision on anti-dumping measures in Mexico and Brazil2027
- Outcome of the USMCA review and any changes to tariffs2026
- Execution of capital spending and performance of the Brazilian rolling linenext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (29 Oct 2026).
The business
Simec currently operates 12 steelmaking, processing and finishing facilities with a combined annual crude steel installed production capacity of 6 million tons 1. Products include I-beams, channels, angles, hot-rolled and cold-finished bars, rebar and wire, used mainly in construction, automotive and industrial equipment. The company ceased US production in August 2023 but kept the plants, which remain inactive unless economic conditions justify restarting 1.
The declared strategy focuses on cost reduction, prioritising higher-margin products, strengthening customer relationships and organic growth by reinvesting operating cash in existing capacity 1. In Mexico it sells through about 100 independent distributors and its own distribution centre in Guadalajara 1.
Capital spending is concentrated in Brazil, where a fourth facility started rolling operations in late 2025; total capital expenditure in 2025 was Ps. 2892 million, most of it in Brazil 1. For 2026 the company estimates about Ps. 2653 million, subject to uncertainty 1.
Segments
Mexico
The Mexican segment covers the Mexicali, Guadalajara, Tlaxcala and San Luis Potosí plants and accounted for about 55.25% of sales volume in 2025 1. SBQ products represented 17.7% of this segment in 2025 1.
Market context
Mexico's steel industry continued to contract in 2025, with an average monthly production value of Ps. 10537 million according to INEGI data 1. Simec's average steel price fell about 4% in 2025 versus 2024, and prices are shaped by North American and global markets 1.
Steel imports into Mexico declined in 2025 and the government introduced anti-dumping measures and temporary tariffs at CANACERO's request 1. Demand depends on the cyclical automotive, construction and manufacturing sectors 1.
Trends
- US tariffs and USMCAheadwind
Section 232 tariffs could reduce the competitiveness of exports to the US, and the 2026 USMCA review could change trade conditions; the company is trying to offset this through product mix and higher domestic sales 1.
- Anti-dumping measures in Mexico and Braziltailwind
If definitively adopted, measures against low-priced imports could restrict competition from Asia and support domestic prices 1.
- Weaker automotive demandheadwind
Direct sales to the automotive industry fell 12.6% in 2025, affecting the higher-margin SBQ business 1.
Competitive position
Simec competes with other steel producers on price, quality and service, and overlapping global capacity and Asian exports pressure prices 1. Its advantage lies in plants in northwest and central Mexico that lower freight costs to southern California 1.
Competition also comes from alternative materials that can reduce steel demand in some applications, and from subsidised imports from foreign producers 1.
- Asian steel producers, notably from China
Their low-priced exports are cited as a source of price pressure in Mexico and Brazil 1.
- Mexican SBQ steel producers
The company describes itself as an important SBQ producer in Mexico, so local peers in the same segment are relevant 1.
- Brazilian rebar producers
The Brazilian segment competes directly in the rebar market 1.
- Steel importers and distributors
Independent distributors that also carry rival product lines are cited as a competitive factor in the local market 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)31 Jul 2026
- Annual report (foreign issuer)31 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)26 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)01 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)01 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)20 Feb 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Oct 2025
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Grupo Simec, S.A.B. de C.V. · 31 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.