olivLaw · US equity research
Steel Dynamics, Inc. STLD
Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens) · SIC 3312 · Vertical: Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens) (SIC 3312)
Steel Dynamics is an industrial metals company operating in the United States and Mexico, producing electric arc furnace steel from recycled scrap and running metals recycling, steel joist and deck fabrication and, since 2025, aluminum flat rolled production. Net sales in fiscal 2025 were $18.2 billion and operating income was $1.5 billion, down from 2024. In the first nine months of 2026 operating income rose to $2.2 billion as steel prices improved.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) stock was 240.12 USD (−3.04% on the day), with market capitalisation 34.1 bn USD, P/E 17.7 on diluted EPS of 13.55 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.87%, beta 1.19, 52-week range 151.94–282.76 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 6.5 bn USD (+34.8% YoY), net income of 756.0 m USD (+87.3% YoY), diluted EPS 5.26 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 47.3
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 233.31 – 254.07
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.33 · band width 8.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 238.91 / 224.96
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 2.66 / 2.63
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −0.4% | −1.1% | +0.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −9.7% | −0.5% | −9.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | −0.7% | +4.4% | −5.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +41.7% | +12.3% | +29.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | +58.4% | +13.5% | +44.8 pp | +14.5% |
| 3 years | +114.6% | +76.4% | +38.2 pp | +21.1% |
| 5 years | +269.2% | +63.7% | +205.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.9 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.4 bn | 5.2 bn | 6.1 bn | 6.5 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 3.4 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.1 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.4 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.2 bn |
| Gross profit | 441.7 m | 486.5 m | 618.5 m | 757.9 m | 529.3 m | 763.2 m | 959.0 m | 1.3 bn |
| SG&A | 176.9 m | 181.8 m | 198.0 m | 200.8 m | 184.6 m | 175.2 m | 193.5 m | 187.0 m |
| Operating income | 237.5 m | 275.1 m | 382.9 m | 507.8 m | 310.2 m | 538.0 m | 700.5 m | 1.0 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 125.6 m | 133.8 m | 132.9 m | 138.5 m | 146.3 m | 159.3 m | 173.9 m | 174.8 m |
| Interest expense | 14.6 m | 12.1 m | 17.4 m | 13.6 m | 27.0 m | 33.2 m | 39.1 m | 39.3 m |
| Pre-tax income | 244.0 m | 280.7 m | 387.9 m | 513.8 m | 310.6 m | 513.2 m | 683.5 m | 978.6 m |
| Income tax | 34.1 m | 63.0 m | 86.7 m | 109.9 m | 46.1 m | 113.1 m | 152.7 m | 222.9 m |
| Net income | 207.3 m | 217.2 m | 298.7 m | 403.7 m | 266.0 m | 403.4 m | 534.1 m | 756.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.36 ≈ | 1.44 | 2.01 | 2.74 | 1.82 ≈ | 2.78 | 3.69 | 5.26 |
| Operating cash flow | 346.9 m | 152.6 m | 301.6 m | 722.6 m | 272.7 m | 148.3 m | 427.9 m | 845.8 m |
| Capex | 453.2 m | 305.5 m | 288.3 m | 165.7 m | 188.5 m | 138.0 m | 123.8 m | 149.6 m |
| Dividends paid | 70.4 m | 69.5 m | 74.7 m | 73.9 m | 73.1 m | 72.5 m | 76.6 m | 76.1 m |
| Share repurchases | 295.1 m | 250.1 m | 200.0 m | 210.4 m | 240.3 m | 115.1 m | 200.3 m | 275.6 m |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 81 percentile of its own 42-quarter history (min 3.0, median 10.9, max 490.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11.8 bn | 10.5 bn | 9.6 bn | 18.4 bn | 22.3 bn | 18.8 bn | 17.5 bn | 18.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +23.9% | −11.5% | −8.3% | +91.7% | +20.9% | −15.6% | −6.7% | +3.6% |
| Net income | 1.3 bn | 677.9 m | 570.8 m | 3.2 bn | 3.9 bn | 2.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.2 bn |
| Net income YoY | +55.8% | −46.0% | −15.8% | +463.1% | +20.2% | −36.5% | −37.3% | −22.9% |
| Diluted EPS | 5.35 | 3.04 | 2.59 | 15.56 | 20.92 | 14.64 | 9.84 | 7.99 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +59.2% | −43.2% | −14.8% | +500.8% | +34.4% | −30.0% | −32.8% | −18.8% |
| net % | 10.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 17.5% | 17.4% | 13.0% | 8.8% | 6.5% |
| Free cash flow | 1.2 bn | 944.3 m | -211.0 m | 1.2 bn | 3.6 bn | 1.9 bn | -23.5 m | 501.5 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 769.9 m USD
- Financial debt
- 4.2 bn USD
- Net debt
- 3.4 bn USD
- Equity
- 8.8 bn USD
- Total assets
- 16.4 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.48x
- Current ratio
- 3.06x
- ROE
- 13.5%
- ROA
- 7.6%
- FCF margin
- 2.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.6 bn | 18.4 bn | 22.3 bn | 18.8 bn | 17.5 bn | 18.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 8.2 bn | 13.0 bn | 16.1 bn | 14.7 bn | 14.7 bn | 15.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.4 bn | 5.4 bn | 6.1 bn | 4.0 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | — | 644.0 m | 545.6 m | 588.6 m | 664.1 m | 765.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 847.1 m | 4.3 bn | 5.1 bn | 3.2 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 325.8 m | 347.7 m | 384.2 m | 437.8 m | 478.9 m | 551.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 1.2 bn ≈ | 4.6 bn ≈ | 5.5 bn ≈ | 3.6 bn ≈ | 2.4 bn ≈ | 2.0 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 94.9 m | 57.2 m | 91.5 m | 76.5 m | 56.3 m | 70.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 705.5 m | 4.2 bn | 5.0 bn | 3.2 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 134.7 m | 962.3 m | 1.1 bn | 751.6 m | 432.9 m | 305.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 570.8 m | 3.2 bn | 3.9 bn | 2.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.59 | 15.56 | 20.92 | 14.64 | 9.84 | 7.99 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 212.3 m | 206.6 m | 184.6 m | 167.4 m | 156.1 m | 148.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.00 | 1.04 | 1.36 | 1.70 | 1.84 | 2.00 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.4 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.4 bn | 589.5 m | 769.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 968.0 m | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Feb 2023verified |
| Inventories | 1.8 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 4.3 bn | 6.9 bn | 7.6 bn | 6.8 bn | 5.4 bn | 6.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 4.1 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.4 bn | 6.7 bn | 8.1 bn | 8.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 457.2 m | 453.8 m | 502.1 m | 477.5 m | 477.5 m | 477.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 324.6 m | 295.3 m | 267.5 m | 257.8 m | 227.2 m | 331.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 9.3 bn | 12.5 bn | 14.2 bn | 14.9 bn | 14.9 bn | 16.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 760.5 m | 1.3 bn | 1.0 bn | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Feb 2023verified |
| Short-term debt | 86.9 m | 97.2 m | 57.3 m | 460.0 m | 427.0 m | 34.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 3.0 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.8 bn | 4.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.3 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 4.9 bn | 6.2 bn | 6.1 bn | 6.1 bn | 6.0 bn | 7.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 4.2 bn | 6.1 bn | 7.9 bn | 8.7 bn | 8.8 bn | 8.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 987.0 m | 2.2 bn | 4.5 bn | 3.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.2 bn | 1.0 bn | 908.9 m | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 948.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -211.0 m ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 3.6 bn ≈ | 1.9 bn ≈ | -23.5 m ≈ | 501.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -993.3 m | -999.4 m | -1.9 bn | -2.0 bn | -1.3 bn | -975.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -7.0 m | -1.3 bn | -2.2 bn | -1.8 bn | -1.4 bn | -294.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 209.2 m | 213.0 m | 237.2 m | 271.3 m | 282.6 m | 291.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 106.5 m | 1.1 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.2 bn | 900.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 54 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 34.1 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation48
- Balance sheet80
- Quality69
- Growth0
- Returns68
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 71.90 – 460.31 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)71.90 – 125.49 (Mid 92.36)WACC 8.8% · starting FCFF 1.2 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 73%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 33.5%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA172.70 – 240.71 (Mid 189.21)4 companies used · median multiple 9.4x · quartiles 8.7x – 11.7xCRS, MT, SXC, TWI
- Peers: P/E241.75 – 460.31 (Mid 384.60)6 companies used · median multiple 28.4x · quartiles 17.8x – 34.0xCMC, CRS, MT, MTUS, NUE, TS
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate26.28 – 35.34 (Mid 30.15)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 54/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 16.2% | 86 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 8.8% | 75 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 55.9% | 37 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -6.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -27.4% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 60 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 18.4x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 17.7x | 71 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 11.7x | 30 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 3.2% | 40 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.3% | 47 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 27.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet80/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality69/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns68/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation48/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 18.2 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 3.6%; net margin 8.8%; ROE 20.8%; net debt/EBITDA 1.0x.
The estimated value range is 172.70–240.71 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 189.21 USD, the price of 240.12 USD leaves a potential of -21.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -26.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 54/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 16.2%
- Net margin: 8.8%
- Interest coverage: 18.4x
- Current ratio: 3.1x
- P/E (TTM): 17.7x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 27.2%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -6.5%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -27.4%
- The valuation methods diverge
Versus the vertical median
Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens) (SIC 3312) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 12 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXTernium S.A. | 103.0 bn | 233.6 | 3.6% | 2.7% | −11.6% | +40% / +30% |
| NUENucor Corp | 60.8 bn | 35.6 | 8.2% | 5.4% | +5.7% | +68% / +58% |
| TSTenaris SA | 59.9 bn | 31.0 | 11.6% | 16.1% | −4.3% | +39% / +61% |
| MTArcelorMittal | 47.6 bn | 15.2 | 6.1% | 5.1% | −1.7% | +45% / +148% |
| STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc. | 34.1 bn | 17.7 | 20.8% | 8.8% | +3.6% | +58% / +115% |
| CRSCarpenter Technology Corporation | 14.5 bn | 25.8 | 27.8% | 17.9% | +8.6% | −8% / +313% |
| CMCCommercial Metals Company | 7.3 bn | 11.3 | 14.8% | 7.0% | +20.5% | +4% / +47% |
| SXCSuncoke Energy, Inc. | 886.9 m | — | -8.5% | -2.9% | −5.1% | +60% / +12% |
| MTUSMetallus Inc. | 737.3 m | 35.0 | 3.4% | 1.9% | +6.9% | +6% / −12% |
| TWITitan International, Inc. | 314.6 m | — | -22.9% | -5.7% | −0.9% | −40% / −63% |
| ASTLAlgoma Steel Group Inc. | — | — | -98.5% | -47.2% | −25.4% | +23% / −37% |
| SIMGRUPO SIMEC, S.A.B. de C.V. | — | — | 19.2% | 31.2% | −18.2% | −8% / −15% |
| PKXPosco Holdings Inc. | — | — | 2.1% | 1.5% | −4.7% | −3% / −45% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for STLD from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 130.56 Total return -45% · Per year -45% | 231.98 Total return -3% · Per year -3% | 351.03 Total return 47% · Per year 47% |
| 3 years | 103.67 Total return -55% · Per year -23% | 209.36 Total return -10% · Per year -4% | 351.03 Total return 49% · Per year 14% |
| 5 years | 82.32 Total return -63% · Per year -18% | 188.95 Total return -18% · Per year -4% | 351.03 Total return 51% · Per year 9% |
- Exit P/E± 52.34
- Net margin± 36.64
- Annual revenue growth± 33.09
- Annual dilution± 3.08
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Steel Dynamics is an industrial metals company operating in the United States and Mexico, producing electric arc furnace steel from recycled scrap and running metals recycling, steel joist and deck fabrication and, since 2025, aluminum flat rolled production. Net sales in fiscal 2025 were $18.2 billion and operating income was $1.5 billion, down from 2024 1. In the first nine months of 2026 operating income rose to $2.2 billion as steel prices improved 23.
SWOT
Strengths
- The circular model, with electric arc furnace steel and integrated recycling, offers a largely variable cost base and a lower-emissions profile than blast furnace producers 1.
- A diversified value-added product mix and vertical integration help keep mills utilized across different parts of the cycle 1.
- Recent results show a strong recovery in profitability, with record shipments and better steel margins 23.
Weaknesses
- The steel fabrication segment is sensitive to raw material costs, which reduced its operating income in 2026 23.
- Aluminum operations posted losses during the start-up phase, and volumes ran below expectations due to quality issues 3.
- Metal spreads are exposed to price pressure and scrap cost volatility, which can compress profitability 1.
Opportunities
- Infrastructure, energy and data center demand could support volume growth over the medium term, according to management 3.
- Expansion into recycled-content aluminum could open supply-deficit markets if the start-up phase is completed 3.
- Biocarbon projects could substantially cut steel mill emissions, which might help sales to customers seeking lower-carbon materials 1.
Threats
- Global overcapacity and low-priced imports can press US prices, especially if trade measures are relaxed 1.
- Volatile scrap and energy prices can reduce margins if they cannot be passed on to customers 1.
- Cyclicality in customer industries such as construction and automotive can reduce demand during economic slowdowns 1.
Risks
- Cyclical demandhigh
Demand for steel and aluminum depends on cyclical sectors, and an economic slowdown could reduce sales and profitability 1.
- Imports and global overcapacityhigh
Excess capacity abroad and low-priced imports can press domestic prices, especially if trade measures are weakened 1.
- Raw material cost volatilitymedium
Scrap and energy prices can fluctuate sharply, and the company may not always pass increases on to customers 1.
- Aluminum start-up executionmedium
Quality and yield problems at the new aluminum mill have cut volumes; if the ramp-up is delayed, losses in this segment could persist 3.
- Environmental and climate regulationlow
Emissions and environmental requirements from customers, investors and regulators can add costs or change demand for certain products 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The positive case assumes steel prices and demand from infrastructure, energy and data centers hold, and that profitability stays high as aluminum reaches full capacity 23.
- An integrated model with recycling and value-added products could absorb cycles better than producers more dependent on a single product 1.
- If the second aluminum CASH line starts on schedule, volumes could rise and support the long-term growth objective 3.
What would break the thesis
- The negative case assumes cheap imports and global overcapacity return, compressing steel prices and margins 1.
- An economic slowdown could reduce demand from construction and automotive, and operating income could fall from recent levels 13.
- If aluminum start-up is delayed or losses persist, the segment could keep weighing on consolidated results 3.
What to watch
- Steel price trajectory and metal spread trendsQ4 2026
- Aluminum volume and margin ramp-up, including the second CASH lineQ1 2027
- Steel import levels and applied trade measures2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Steel Dynamics runs a circular model in which electric arc furnaces use mainly recycled ferrous scrap as the primary input, with estimated steelmaking and coating capacity of approximately 16 million tons at the end of 2025 1. Its metals recycling activity feeds the steel mills directly, while the steel fabrication segment consumes part of the internal steel output.
Product diversification is central: about 70% of steel and steel fabrication sales are considered value-added 1. The company has also added aluminum flat rolled operations with high recycled content, aimed mainly at the beverage can industry and also at the automotive and industrial sectors 12.
Segments
Steel Fabrication
The steel joist and deck fabrication segment accounted for 8% of consolidated net sales in 2025 1. Its operating income fell in 2026 versus the prior year because of higher raw material costs, but order activity and backlog grew, supported by commercial, data center and healthcare demand 23.
Market context
The company described the US steel market as strong in the third quarter of 2026, with steady demand, low customer inventories and historically low imports, which pushed prices higher 3. Global overcapacity and cheap imports remain pressure points, and the company explicitly cites Chinese overcapacity as a factor 1.
Demand from construction, automotive, energy and data centers supports steel and aluminum consumption, and management expects these sectors to contribute to growth into 2027 if economic activity keeps improving 3. The market for recycled-content aluminum flat rolled products is described as supply-deficit, which could support the new mill 3.
Trends
- Stronger steel pricestailwind
Steel prices strengthened in the third quarter of 2026 as lead times lengthened and spot availability tightened, widening metal spreads 3.
- Reshoring and infrastructure spendingtailwind
Reshoring, infrastructure programs and investment in energy and data centers could support steel demand over the medium term, according to management 23.
- Import pressure and overcapacityheadwind
Global steel overcapacity and low-priced imports can press domestic prices and compress margins if trade measures weaken 1.
- Scrap and energy costsmixed
Scrap and energy prices are volatile and could reduce margins if they cannot be passed on to customers, while new EAF capacity could raise scrap demand 1.
Competitive position
Steel Dynamics competes with integrated producers using blast furnaces, which can have a cost advantage when scrap is expensive, as well as with other electric arc furnace producers and foreign steelmakers, mainly in Asia and Europe 1. In aluminum the company enters a market with established players and relies on high recycled content and low costs 3.
Competition also comes from scrap processors and alternative materials, and price pressure is greater for commodity products than for the value-added lines the company emphasizes 1.
- Integrated blast furnace steel producers
Producers using iron ore and coke that can have a cost advantage when scrap prices are high 1.
- Other US electric arc furnace steel producers
Compete directly in flat rolled and long product lines, and new EAF construction can increase scrap demand 1.
- Foreign steel producers in Asia and Europe
Export steel at prices that can be below cost, pressuring US prices 1.
- Aluminum flat rolled producers
Compete in beverage can, automotive and industrial markets where the company seeks to differentiate through recycled content 3.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Steel Dynamics ( STLD ) Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptSurge — GDELT DOC · 20 Oct 2026 · RO
- Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: RTX, General Motors, Northrop Grumman, Steel Dynamics & moreCNBC — Top News · 20 Oct 2026 · EN
- Nucor and Steel Dynamics Just Pulled Back—The Steel Story Still Looks StrongYahoo Finance — News · 22 Sept 2026 · EN
- STLD Stock Leads U.S. Steel Stocks Higher Amid Escalating Trade War With CanadaYahoo Finance — News · 24 Aug 2026 · EN
- U.S. Steel Stocks Nucor, Steel Dynamics: Big Winners As Canada Trade Talks Collapse?Yahoo Finance — News · 23 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 20 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 23 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report23 Oct 2026
- Current report20 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report19 Oct 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 Sept 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report (amendment)18 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report14 Aug 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report04 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report28 Jul 2026
- Current report21 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 Jun 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Steel Dynamics, Inc. · 27 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / Steel Dynamics, Inc. · 23 Oct 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Steel Dynamics, Inc. · 20 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.