olivLaw · US equity research
Expedia Group, Inc. EXPE
Transportation Services · SIC 4700 · Vertical: Transportation Services (SIC 4700)
Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) is one of the largest global online travel companies, with the stated purpose of helping travelers explore the world. Total revenue for fiscal 2025 was 14.7 billion USD, and in the second quarter of 2026 revenue grew 14% year on year, with full-year 2026 guidance raised. The business still depends on booking volume, and recent growth has been led by the B2B segment.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) stock was 315.88 USD (+10.54% on the day), with market capitalisation 36.2 bn USD, P/E 19.7 on diluted EPS of 16.04 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.56%, beta 1.31, 52-week range 188.51–339.13 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 4.3 bn USD (+14.0% YoY), net income of 878.0 m USD (+166.1% YoY), diluted EPS 7.16 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 63.3
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 262.52 – 308.91
- above the upper band · %B 1.15 · band width 16.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 284.21 / 259.31
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 4.55 / 2.09
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +21.4% | −1.1% | +22.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | −1.2% | −0.5% | −0.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +28.1% | +4.4% | +23.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | +11.5% | +12.3% | −0.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +48.9% | +13.5% | +35.4 pp | −21.0% |
| 3 years | +180.3% | +76.4% | +103.8 pp | +10.7% |
| 5 years | +73.4% | +63.7% | +9.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.1 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.4 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.4 bn | 4.3 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 388.0 m | 335.0 m | 357.0 m | 377.0 m | 376.0 m | 346.0 m | 377.0 m | 403.0 m |
| Operating income | 762.0 m | 216.0 m | -70.0 m | 485.0 m | 1.0 bn | 420.0 m | 251.0 m | 800.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 211.0 m | 212.0 m | 219.0 m | 223.0 m | 225.0 m | 220.0 m | 228.0 m | 228.0 m |
| Interest expense | 61.0 m | 62.0 m | 58.0 m | 58.0 m | 62.0 m | 121.0 m | 111.0 m | 61.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 874.0 m | 335.0 m | -217.0 m | 423.0 m | 1.1 bn | 254.0 m | 25.0 m | 1.0 bn |
| Income tax | 190.0 m | 34.0 m | -20.0 m | 101.0 m | 167.0 m | 42.0 m | 37.0 m | 152.0 m |
| Net income | 684.0 m | 299.0 m | -200.0 m | 330.0 m | 959.0 m | 205.0 m | -6.0 m | 878.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 5.04 | 2.20 ≈ | -1.56 | 2.48 | 7.33 | 1.60 ≈ | -0.05 | 7.16 |
| Operating cash flow | -1.5 bn ≈ | 198.0 m | 3.0 bn | 1.1 bn ≈ | -497.0 m ≈ | 304.0 m | 3.9 bn | 1.5 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 194.0 m ≈ | 191.0 m | 196.0 m | 200.0 m ≈ | 189.0 m ≈ | 185.0 m | 184.0 m | 199.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 0 ≈ | 0 | 51.0 m | 51.0 m | 49.0 m | 49.0 m | 58.0 m | 58.0 m |
| Share repurchases | 469.0 m ≈ | 198.0 m | 384.0 m | 688.0 m ≈ | 531.0 m ≈ | 327.0 m | 788.0 m | 270.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 11 percentile of its own 35-quarter history (min 16.0, median 32.8, max 99.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11.2 bn | 12.1 bn | 5.2 bn | 8.6 bn | 11.7 bn | 12.8 bn | 13.7 bn | 14.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +11.6% | +7.5% | −56.9% | +65.4% | +35.7% | +10.0% | +6.6% | +7.6% |
| Net income | 406.0 m | 565.0 m | -2.6 bn | 12.0 m | 352.0 m | 797.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn |
| Net income YoY | +7.4% | +39.2% | −562.3% | unavailable | +2,833.3% | +126.4% | +54.8% | +4.9% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.65 | 3.77 | -19.00 | -1.80 | 2.17 | 5.31 | 8.95 | 9.81 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +9.5% | +42.3% | −604.0% | unavailable | unavailable | +144.7% | +68.5% | +9.6% |
| net % | 3.6% | 4.7% | -50.2% | 0.1% | 3.0% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 8.8% |
| Free cash flow | 1.1 bn | 1.6 bn | -4.6 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.3 bn | 3.1 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 5.4 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 6.2 bn USD
- Net debt
- 748.0 m USD
- Equity
- 2.5 bn USD
- Total assets
- 24.5 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 2.42x
- Current ratio
- 0.73x
- ROE
- 48.4%
- ROA
- 5.5%
- FCF margin
- 21.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.2 bn | 8.6 bn | 11.7 bn | 12.8 bn | 13.7 bn | 14.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 3.6 bn ≈ | 7.1 bn ≈ | 10.0 bn ≈ | 11.3 bn ≈ | 12.2 bn ≈ | 13.3 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived |
| Operating income | -2.7 bn | 186.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 893.0 m | 814.0 m | 792.0 m | 807.0 m | 838.0 m | 887.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -1.8 bn ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | 1.9 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | 2.2 bn ≈ | 2.8 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 360.0 m | 351.0 m | 277.0 m | 245.0 m | 246.0 m | 299.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -3.2 bn | -38.0 m | 538.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -423.0 m | -53.0 m | 195.0 m | 330.0 m | 318.0 m | 290.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -2.6 bn | 12.0 m | 352.0 m | 797.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -19.00 | -1.80 | 2.17 | 5.31 | 8.95 | 9.81 | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 141.4 m | 149.7 m | 161.8 m | 150.2 m | 137.9 m | 131.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.34 | — | — | — | — | 1.60 | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 3.4 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.2 bn | 5.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 701.0 m | 1.3 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.2 bn | 4.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 5.6 bn | 8.2 bn | 8.8 bn | 9.2 bn | 9.8 bn | 12.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.3 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 7.4 bn | 7.2 bn | 7.1 bn | 6.8 bn | 6.8 bn | 6.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.0 bn | 817.0 m | 819.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 18.7 bn | 21.5 bn | 21.6 bn | 21.6 bn | 22.4 bn | 24.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 735.0 m | 0 | 0 | 1.0 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 8.2 bn | 7.7 bn | 6.2 bn | 6.3 bn | 5.2 bn | 4.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 5.4 bn | 9.5 bn | 10.8 bn | 11.8 bn | 13.6 bn | 16.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 3.0 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.7 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -3.8 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.4 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 797.0 m | 673.0 m | 662.0 m | 846.0 m | 756.0 m | 770.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -4.6 bn ≈ | 3.1 bn ≈ | 2.8 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | 2.3 bn ≈ | 3.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -263.0 m | -931.0 m | -580.0 m | -800.0 m | -1.3 bn | -531.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 4.1 bn | -973.0 m | -2.6 bn | -2.1 bn | -1.7 bn | -2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 48.0 m | — | — | 0 | 0 | 200.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 425.0 m | 165.0 m | 607.0 m | 2.1 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 80 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 36.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation72
- Returns90
- Quality93
- Balance sheet69
- Growth84
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 135.93 – 1,014.35 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)644.42 – 1,014.35 (Mid 785.19)WACC 8.7% · starting FCFF 4.8 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 75%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -28.5%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA253.72 – 552.58 (Mid 409.32)5 companies used · median multiple 13.4x · quartiles 8.2x – 18.2xBKNG, GXO, LIND, VRRM, XPO
- Peers: P/E135.93 – 760.06 (Mid 282.33)7 companies used · median multiple 17.6x · quartiles 8.5x – 47.4xBKNG, GATX, GXO, HAFN, MMYT, VRRM, XPO
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate21.03 – 28.28 (Mid 24.12)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 80/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 129.4% | 100 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 13.0% | 75 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 219.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 8.1% | 67 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 65.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.4x | 86 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 7.1x | 86 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 19.7x | 56 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 10.3x | 67 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 12.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 5.9% | 84 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 4.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet69/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth84/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality93/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns90/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation72/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
EXPEDIA GROUP, INC. (EXPE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 14.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 7.6%; net margin 13.0%; ROE 199.1%; net debt/EBITDA -0.4x.
The estimated value range is 253.72–760.06 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 409.32 USD, the price of 315.88 USD leaves a potential of 29.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 22.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 80/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 129.4%
- Net margin: 13.0%
- FCF conversion: 219.0%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 65.3%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -0.4x
- Interest coverage: 7.1x
- FCF yield: 12.3%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.9%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 4.8%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.8x
- The valuation methods diverge
Versus the vertical median
Transportation Services (SIC 4700) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 14 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKNGBooking Holdings Inc. | 127.2 bn | 1.0 | — | — | +13.4% | −13% / +37% |
| EXPEExpedia Group, Inc. | 36.2 bn | 19.7 | 199.1% | 13.0% | +7.6% | +49% / +180% |
| XPOXPO, Inc. | 21.9 bn | 44.3 | 26.5% | 5.7% | +1.1% | +32% / +118% |
| GATXGATX Corporation | 6.7 bn | 17.6 | 14.2% | 17.7% | +9.8% | +19% / +75% |
| GXOGXO Logistics, Inc. | 6.5 bn | 50.5 | 4.4% | 1.0% | +12.5% | +12% / +1% |
| HAFNHafnia Limited | 4.9 bn | 6.5 | 34.5% | 27.0% | +7.4% | +64% / unavailable |
| RXORxo, Inc. | 4.7 bn | — | -5.7% | -1.3% | +26.2% | +115% / +35% |
| LINDLindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. | 2.2 bn | 8,279.1 | — | 0.7% | +19.6% | +179% / +327% |
| TOURTuniu Corp | 1.5 bn | 473.0 | 3.0% | 5.4% | +17.5% | −35% / −47% |
| SPCEVirgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. | 380.5 m | — | -75.1% | -23,867.4% | −78.1% | −35% / −94% |
| VRRMVerra Mobility Corporation | 377.0 m | 10.4 | 11.3% | 33.2% | +14.6% | −89% / −88% |
| PALProficient Auto Logistics, Inc. | 82.5 m | — | -13.0% | — | unavailable | −64% / unavailable |
| NTRPNextTrip, Inc. | 18.1 m | — | -296.7% | -319.8% | +641.0% | −68% / −68% |
| YTRAMagna Holdings Ltd. | — | — | -2.0% | -1.3% | +85.2% | −50% / −43% |
| MMYTMakeMyTrip Ltd | — | 61.1 | 8.2% | 9.7% | +25.0% | −29% / +20% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for EXPE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 214.52 Total return -32% · Per year -32% | 378.63 Total return 21% · Per year 21% | 569.45 Total return 81% · Per year 81% |
| 3 years | 223.48 Total return -28% · Per year -10% | 442.35 Total return 42% · Per year 12% | 728.27 Total return 133% · Per year 33% |
| 5 years | 232.82 Total return -24% · Per year -5% | 516.80 Total return 68% · Per year 11% | 931.37 Total return 200% · Per year 25% |
- Exit P/E± 110.59
- Net margin± 77.41
- Annual revenue growth± 61.43
- Annual dilution± 6.50
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (06 Aug 2026).
In brief
Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) is one of the largest global online travel companies, with the stated purpose of helping travelers explore the world 1. Total revenue for fiscal 2025 was 14.7 billion USD 1, and in the second quarter of 2026 revenue grew 14% year on year, with full-year 2026 guidance raised 2. The business still depends on booking volume, and recent growth has been led by the B2B segment 2.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a broad base of consumer brands and a large stock of lodging and travel services that attracts a global audience 1.
- A unified technology platform and the One Key loyalty program support operational efficiency and customer retention 1.
- The B2B segment grew strongly in the latest quarter, showing real demand for its technology and inventory offering 2.
Weaknesses
- Reliance on paid marketing and search engines raises customer acquisition costs 1.
- The company has faced operational complexity in the past and has shut down or sold several businesses, which shows integration difficulty 1.
- Control is concentrated, because high-vote Class B shares give the founder significant influence 1.
Opportunities
- The global travel market is very large, so the company's share of total traveler spending could grow 1.
- Wider use of artificial intelligence in products and services could improve the experience and direct bookings 12.
- Expanding B2B offerings to more companies and financial institutions could add new revenue streams 2.
Risks
- Concentrated controlhigh
A founder holds a significant share of voting power, which allows him to influence major corporate transactions 1.
- Competition from AI platformshigh
The growth of AI agents and conversational search could move traffic away from traditional platforms 1.
- Marketing costsmedium
Competition for traffic from search and metasearch could raise customer acquisition costs 1.
- International regulationmedium
Rules on short-term rentals, travel packages and data protection are spreading across many countries and could complicate operations 1.
- Supplier dependencelow
Relationships with airlines, hotels and global distribution systems are essential, and losing key partners could affect supply 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Strong B2B bookings growth and raised full-year 2026 guidance suggest the platform strategy and wider supply could keep supporting revenue 2.
- The Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded in the second quarter of 2026, which points to rising operational efficiency 2.
- The global travel market is far larger than the current booking base, leaving room for growth if the platform gains share 1.
What would break the thesis
- Competition from supplier direct sites, AI platforms and search engines could reduce margins over the longer term 1.
- Concentrated voting control may limit the influence of minority shareholders on major decisions 1.
- Growth partly depends on the B2B segment, and a slowdown there could weigh on overall results 2.
What to watch
- Delivery of third-quarter 2026 Gross Bookings guidanceQ3 2026
- Evolution of the Adjusted EBITDA margin against full-year guidance2026
- Growth of the B2B segment and lodging bookingsQ3 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (06 Aug 2026).
The business
Expedia Group operates as a global travel marketplace that connects travelers, suppliers and advertisers through the Expedia, Hotels.com and Vrbo brands, together with its technology and first-party data 1. At the end of 2025 the platform had about 3.6 million lodging properties available, plus over 500 airlines, packages, rental cars, cruises and activities 1. In 2020 the company moved to a platform operating model that simplified its structure and unified the One Key loyalty program 1.
Revenue comes from three models: the merchant model, in which the company is merchant of record, the agency model, in which it earns commissions, and the advertising model, in which it sells traffic to other businesses 1. For 2025, merchant transactions accounted for 70% of total revenue, agency for 22%, and advertising, media and other for 8% 1. Besides its three core consumer brands, the company owns a majority stake in the metasearch site trivago 1.
The company reports two main segments, B2C, which serves consumers through its brands, and B2B, which supplies technology and inventory to companies such as airlines and travel agents 1. In the second quarter of 2026, B2B Gross Bookings grew 21% and B2C Gross Bookings grew 8%, making B2B the main driver of recent growth 2. The company had about 16,000 employees, roughly half of them in technology roles 1.
Segments
B2B
The B2B segment supplies technology, APIs and inventory to airlines, offline agents, online retailers and financial institutions 1. In the second quarter of 2026, B2B revenue grew 23% and Gross Bookings grew 21% 2. Management describes the segment as the principal growth engine, supported by broader supply and new customers 12.
Market context
Expedia Group is one of the largest online travel companies, yet its gross bookings represent only a single-digit percentage of total worldwide travel spending 1. Phocuswright estimates global travel spending, including alternative accommodations and tours and activities, at over 2 trillion USD in 2026 1. The market remains fragmented among agencies, operators and supplier direct sites, which leaves room for growth if the platform gains share 1.
In the second quarter of 2026, booked room nights grew 6% and Gross Bookings grew 12% 2. Growth is driven mainly by B2B and lodging demand, while international markets remain a key factor for the company's future 12.
Trends
- Artificial intelligencemixed
The company uses artificial intelligence to improve products, raise developer productivity and speed customer service, and management believes this could support retention and direct bookings 12. At the same time, the growth of generative AI and AI agents may bring new competitors 1.
- Competition from supplier direct websitesheadwind
Supplier direct sites sometimes offer their own loyalty programs and better prices, which could reduce the platform's share 1.
- Short-term rental and digital tax regulationheadwind
Companies like Expedia face tighter short-term rental laws, reporting obligations and digital service taxes in several countries, and compliance costs could rise 1.
Competitive position
The company's brands compete in intensely competitive markets with travel agencies, tour operators, supplier direct websites, large search and marketplace companies and online platforms 1. Competition takes the form of more favorable terms and better technology offered to suppliers and travelers, which makes competition increasingly difficult 1.
In B2B, competition comes from travel consolidators, other OTAs with B2B offerings and technology and content providers 1. The company differentiates itself through the breadth of its global supply and its own travel technology 1.
- Booking HoldingsBKNG
A US-listed online travel platform, named here as a comparable OTA although the source does not name it explicitly.
- Supplier direct websites
Hotels and airlines selling directly to customers, with their own loyalty programs and sometimes better prices.
- Search and metasearch platforms
Search engines and metasearch sites that compete for customer traffic and influence acquisition costs.
- AI companies and generative AI platforms
New entrants offering AI agents and travel services through conversational interfaces.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Expedia Expects Attractive Deals From Meta’s Muse and Google’s AI OverviewsSkift · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Coherent, AppLovin, Expedia, Qualcomm and moreCNBC — Top News · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Expedia just announced a slew of new travel features — here are the ones worth knowing aboutThe Points Guy · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- What the Amex Travel-Airbnb Deal Means for ExpediaSkift · 23 Oct 2026 · EN
- Rusia va expedia miercuri primul petrolier care va transporta motorină în Statele UniteG4Media · 22 Oct 2026 · RO
- Expedia Group , Inc . ( EXPE ) Trades Below Its Old Earnings Multiple . Is AI a Real Threat to Growth ?Surge — GDELT DOC · 20 Oct 2026 · RO
- Expedia Cuts 58 Roles in Latest Layoff RoundSkift · 26 Sept 2026 · EN
- Agentul AI al Meta aduce scăderi pentru Expedia și Booking, iar Zuckerberg urcă pe locul patru - Forbes RomaniaSurge — Google News · 25 Sept 2026 · RO
- Expedia Bets Against the All-Powerful AI Travel AgentSkift · 23 Sept 2026 · EN
- Expedia Group Stock: Is EXPE Outperforming the Consumer Cyclical Sector?Yahoo Finance — News · 22 Sept 2026 · EN
- Morgan Stanley Cuts Expedia (EXPE) to Underweight as Rivals Pull Ahead on UsersYahoo Finance — News · 21 Sept 2026 · EN
- This Analyst Just Downgraded Expedia Stock. Here's Why.Yahoo Finance — News · 16 Sept 2026 · EN
- Here Are Wednesday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Airbnb, Booking Holdings, Credicorp, Dutch Bros, Expedia, Hartford Financial Services, Group, Meritage Homes, Patchex, Yum! Brands, and MoreYahoo Finance — News · 16 Sept 2026 · EN
- Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: SK Hynix, J.B. Hunt, Expedia & moreCNBC — Top News · 16 Sept 2026 · EN
- Expedia CEO: Despite record-high gas prices, 'people are still traveling'Yahoo Finance — News · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- With Booking’s Etraveli Deal Still Blocked, Expedia Has the Edge in M&ASkift · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Amgen, Qualcomm, Expedia, CoreWeave & moreCNBC — Top News · 08 Sept 2026 · EN
- Expedia Coupons & Promo Codes September 2026Conde Nast Traveler · 08 Sept 2026 · EN
- Ce trebuie să verificați înainte de a expedia un colet - Atenționare ANCOMProfit.ro · 02 Sept 2026 · RO
- Booking Holdings vs. Expedia in B2B: Bombshell Estimate Says Booking Leads in Room NightsSkift · 28 Aug 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report23 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report08 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement29 Apr 2026
- Current report23 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report10 Apr 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report30 Mar 2026Material agreement · Termination of a material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Expedia Group, Inc. · 13 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Expedia Group, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.