olivLaw · US equity research
XPO, Inc. XPO
Transportation Services · SIC 4700 · Vertical: Transportation Services (SIC 4700)
XPO is a freight transportation provider focused on North American less-than-truckload (LTL) freight, its largest segment, plus a pan-European transportation platform. The company is improving margins in 2026 as freight demand begins to recover, while its board has authorized a divestiture of the European business.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, XPO, Inc. (XPO) stock was 188.06 USD (−1.62% on the day), with market capitalisation 21.9 bn USD, P/E 44.3 on diluted EPS of 4.25 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.46, 52-week range 125.64–228.37 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 2.4 bn USD (+12.4% YoY), net income of 181.0 m USD (+120.7% YoY), diluted EPS 1.53 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 53.2
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 179.03 – 192.54
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.67 · band width 7.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 183.53 / 197.36
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.41 / 0.83
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +2.8% | −1.1% | +3.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −6.1% | −0.5% | −5.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | −11.1% | +4.4% | −15.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +38.4% | +12.3% | +26.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +33.7% | +13.5% | +20.2 pp | −21.0% |
| 3 years | +136.5% | +76.4% | +60.1 pp | +10.7% |
| 5 years | +302.7% | +63.7% | +239.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn |
| Operating income | 149.0 m | 151.0 m | 198.0 m | 164.0 m | 143.0 m | 174.0 m | 271.0 m | 288.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 67.0 m | 123.0 m | 131.0 m | 134.0 m | 79.0 m | 131.0 m | 134.0 m | 134.0 m |
| Interest expense | 53.0 m | 56.0 m | 56.0 m | 54.0 m | 53.0 m | 53.0 m | 51.0 m | 50.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 101.0 m | 91.0 m | 143.0 m | 112.0 m | 91.0 m | 124.0 m | 218.0 m | 240.0 m |
| Income tax | 26.0 m | 22.0 m | 37.0 m | 30.0 m | 32.0 m | 23.0 m | 56.0 m | 60.0 m |
| Net income | 75.0 m | 69.0 m | 106.0 m | 82.0 m | 59.0 m | 101.0 m | 162.0 m | 181.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.63 ≈ | 0.58 | 0.89 | 0.68 | 0.51 ≈ | 0.85 | 1.36 | 1.53 |
| Operating cash flow | — | 142.0 m | 247.0 m ≈ | 371.0 m ≈ | — | 183.0 m | 308.0 m ≈ | 415.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 166.0 m | 199.0 m | 196.0 m ≈ | 156.0 m ≈ | 106.0 m | 111.0 m | 127.0 m ≈ | 131.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 10.0 m ≈ | 47.0 m ≈ | 68.0 m | 30.0 m | 70.0 m ≈ | 150.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 75 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 3.5, median 22.7, max 240.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | ⚠ 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 17.3 bn | 10.7 bn | 6.2 bn | 7.2 bn | 7.7 bn | 7.7 bn | 8.1 bn | 8.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +12.3% | — | −42.3% | +16.8% | +7.2% | +0.3% | +4.2% | +1.1% |
| Net income | 422.0 m | 419.0 m | 110.0 m | 336.0 m | 666.0 m | 189.0 m | 387.0 m | 316.0 m |
| Net income YoY | +24.1% | — | −73.7% | +205.5% | +98.2% | −71.6% | +104.8% | −18.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.88 | 3.57 | 0.87 | 2.93 | 5.76 | 1.60 | 3.23 | 2.64 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +17.6% | — | −75.6% | +236.8% | +96.6% | −72.2% | +101.9% | −18.3% |
| net % | 2.4% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 4.7% | 8.6% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 3.9% |
| Free cash flow | 551.0 m | 250.0 m | 139.0 m | 387.0 m | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
The series breaks before 2019: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 310.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 3.3 bn USD
- Net debt
- 2.9 bn USD
- Equity
- 1.9 bn USD
- Total assets
- 8.2 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 1.75x
- Current ratio
- 1.05x
- ROE
- 18.3%
- ROA
- 4.0%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.2 bn | 7.2 bn | 7.7 bn | 7.7 bn | 8.1 bn | 8.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 7.9 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.9 bn | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2023verified |
| Gross profit | -1.7 bn ≈ | 2.6 bn ≈ | 2.8 bn ≈ | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2023derived |
| SG&A | 746.0 m | 756.0 m | 678.0 m | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2023verified |
| Operating income | 97.0 m | 312.0 m | 377.0 m | 438.0 m | 660.0 m | 656.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 321.0 m | 327.0 m | 336.0 m | 376.0 m | 432.0 m | 467.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 418.0 m ≈ | 639.0 m ≈ | 713.0 m ≈ | 814.0 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 308.0 m | 211.0 m | 135.0 m | 168.0 m | 223.0 m | 219.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -164.0 m | 107.0 m | 258.0 m | 260.0 m | 473.0 m | 437.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -54.0 m | 11.0 m | 74.0 m | 68.0 m | 86.0 m | 121.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 110.0 m | 336.0 m | 666.0 m | 189.0 m | 387.0 m | 316.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.87 | 2.93 | 5.76 | 1.60 | 3.23 | 2.64 | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 92.0 m | 114.0 m | 116.0 m | 118.0 m | 120.0 m | 119.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.7 bn | 228.0 m | 460.0 m | 412.0 m | 246.0 m | 310.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.7 bn | 908.0 m | 954.0 m | 973.0 m | 977.0 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 5.4 bn | 2.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.9 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 675.0 m | 470.0 m | 407.0 m | 422.0 m | 361.0 m | 311.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 16.2 bn | 8.7 bn | 6.3 bn | 7.5 bn | 7.7 bn | 8.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 854.0 m | 519.0 m | 521.0 m | 532.0 m | 477.0 m | 455.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 5.2 bn | 3.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 5.2 bn | 2.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.8 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.3 bn † | 1.6 bn † | 1.9 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 388.0 m | 656.0 m | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Feb 2022verified |
| Capex | 249.0 m | 269.0 m | 521.0 m | 1.5 bn | 789.0 m | 657.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 139.0 m ≈ | 387.0 m ≈ | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Feb 2022derived |
| Investing cash flow | -116.0 m | -184.0 m | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Feb 2022verified |
| Financing cash flow | 1.2 bn | -1.9 bn | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Feb 2022verified |
| Share repurchases | 114.0 m | — | — | 0 | 0 | 125.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 35 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score < 40
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 21.9 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet30
- Valuation39
- Quality70
- Growth8
- Returns21
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 36.01 – 144.59 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the input exists, but its latest figure is far older than the latest reported period: not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDA73.71 – 132.14 (Mid 95.66)5 companies used · median multiple 10.3x · quartiles 8.4x – 13.4xBKNG, EXPE, GXO, LIND, VRRM
- Peers: P/E36.01 – 144.59 (Mid 74.79)7 companies used · median multiple 17.6x · quartiles 8.5x – 34.0xBKNG, EXPE, GATX, GXO, HAFN, MMYT, VRRM
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 35/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 13.9% | 78 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Net margin · Quality | 5.7% | 58 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 1.9% | 16 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -22.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 2.0x | 29 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 4.2x | 42 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 15 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 44.3x | 44 (vs peers) | 13% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 18.2x | 33 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.5% | 21 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet30/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth8/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality70/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial21/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation39/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
XPO, Inc. (XPO). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 8.2 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 1.1%; net margin 5.7%; ROE 26.5%; net debt/EBITDA 2.0x.
The estimated value range is 54.86–138.36 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: same basis (multiples on one peer group, not independent confirmations)); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 85.22 USD, the price of 188.06 USD leaves a potential of -54.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -120.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 35/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 13.9%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 1.9%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -22.9%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 2.0x
- Current ratio: 1.0x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.5%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Transportation Services (SIC 4700) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 14 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKNGBooking Holdings Inc. | 127.2 bn | 1.0 | — | — | +13.4% | −13% / +37% |
| EXPEExpedia Group, Inc. | 36.2 bn | 19.7 | 199.1% | 13.0% | +7.6% | +24% / +132% |
| XPOXPO, Inc. | 21.9 bn | 44.3 | 26.5% | 5.7% | +1.1% | +34% / +136% |
| GATXGATX Corporation | 6.7 bn | 17.6 | 14.2% | 17.7% | +9.8% | +19% / +75% |
| GXOGXO Logistics, Inc. | 6.4 bn | 48.4 | 4.6% | 1.0% | +12.5% | +12% / +1% |
| HAFNHafnia Limited | 4.9 bn | 6.5 | 34.5% | 27.0% | +7.4% | +64% / unavailable |
| RXORxo, Inc. | 4.7 bn | — | -5.7% | -1.3% | +26.2% | +115% / +35% |
| LINDLindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. | 2.2 bn | 8,279.1 | — | 0.7% | +19.6% | +179% / +327% |
| TOURTuniu Corp | 1.5 bn | 473.0 | 3.0% | 5.4% | +17.5% | −35% / −47% |
| SPCEVirgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. | 380.5 m | — | -75.1% | -23,867.4% | −78.1% | −35% / −94% |
| VRRMVerra Mobility Corporation | 377.0 m | 10.4 | 11.3% | 33.2% | +14.6% | −89% / −88% |
| PALProficient Auto Logistics, Inc. | 82.5 m | — | -13.0% | — | unavailable | −64% / unavailable |
| NTRPNextTrip, Inc. | 18.1 m | — | -296.7% | -319.8% | +641.0% | −68% / −68% |
| YTRAMagna Holdings Ltd. | — | — | -2.0% | -1.3% | +85.2% | −50% / −43% |
| MMYTMakeMyTrip Ltd | — | 61.1 | 8.2% | 9.7% | +25.0% | −29% / +20% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for XPO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 109.96 Total return -42% · Per year -42% | 194.66 Total return 4% · Per year 4% | 293.56 Total return 56% · Per year 56% |
| 3 years | 101.14 Total return -46% · Per year -19% | 201.98 Total return 7% · Per year 2% | 335.23 Total return 78% · Per year 21% |
| 5 years | 93.02 Total return -51% · Per year -13% | 209.56 Total return 11% · Per year 2% | 382.81 Total return 104% · Per year 15% |
- Exit P/E± 50.49
- Net margin± 35.35
- Annual revenue growth± 29.77
- Annual dilution± 2.97
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
XPO is a freight transportation provider focused on North American less-than-truckload (LTL) freight, its largest segment, plus a pan-European transportation platform. The company is improving margins in 2026 as freight demand begins to recover, while its board has authorized a divestiture of the European business 123.
SWOT
Strengths
- A large, dense LTL network in North America reaching nearly all U.S. ZIP codes, backed by its own fleet capacity and trailer manufacturing 1.
- Proprietary technology and AI applied to pricing, routing and productivity, which supported the operating margin gains reported in the second quarter of 2026 13.
- A diversified customer base with low dependence on any single customer, reducing concentration risk 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Recession and lower volumeshigh
A fall in freight volumes from a downturn could reduce revenue and margins, and customers under financial strain could pay more slowly 1.
- Sale of the European businessmedium
The sale is not assured to happen, and if it does it could bring losses, transition costs and a more concentrated company 1.
- Effectiveness of the action planmedium
The costly plan to improve the LTL network may not deliver the expected results on time 1.
- Goodwill impairmentmedium
The company carries about 1.5 billion dollars of goodwill, and an impairment could weigh on operating results if performance weakens 1.
- Intellectual propertylow
If rights over the technology were challenged or could not be defended, operations could be significantly affected 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for LTL freight recovers, constrained industry capacity and investment in fleet and network could let the company gain profitable market share and expand margins 123.
- Proprietary technology and AI applied to pricing and productivity could sustain operating margin expansion, as the second quarter 2026 results suggest 13.
- If the European sale proceeds, the company could become a more focused business with clearer exposure to its high-return North American segment 1.
What would break the thesis
- If the freight recession persists, revenue and margins could stay under pressure, and heavy investment might not translate into growth 12.
- The European segment could keep posting operating losses if restructuring does not deliver, and a sale could prove harder than expected 13.
- Trade tensions, high interest rates and wage costs could compress margins and demand, and the efficiency plan could be slower than hoped 1.
What to watch
- Timing and terms of the European divestiture2026
- Adjusted operating ratio trend in North American LTLQ3 2026
- Progress of AI deployment and labour productivity2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
The North American strategy rests on four levers: best-in-class service, network capacity investment, yield growth and cost efficiency, with AI playing a growing role 1. The company has said its LTL business historically generated a high return on invested capital and robust free cash flow 1.
Separately, the board has authorized the divestiture of the European business, an authorization that remains in effect, but there can be no assurance that the divestiture will occur or of its terms or timing 12. If it occurs, the company would become smaller and more concentrated on the U.S. market 1.
Market context
The company describes North American LTL as a bedrock industry with secular growth drivers, a favorable pricing environment and an established competitive landscape, and XPO holds about 9% of the U.S. market 1. LTL industry capacity is, according to the company, constrained below pre-pandemic levels 12.
The European market is fragmented by service type, and XPO holds leading positions in France, Iberia and the U.K. 1. U.S. demand could increase when interest rates fall or tariff uncertainties subside, according to the company 1.
Trends
- Freight recessionmixed
The company describes the freight environment as still recessionary, with macroeconomic pressure on both supply and demand, and a recovery in demand could favour the company 12.
- Interest rates and inflationheadwind
High interest rates and inflation could raise wage and fuel costs, and could also delay demand across the industry; the company partly offsets this through fuel surcharge clauses 1.
- Trade tariffsmixed
Uncertainty over tariffs between the U.S. and its trading partners can affect freight volumes and customer demand, but could support LTL demand if the uncertainties ease 1.
- Artificial intelligence and technologytailwind
The company is investing in AI for pricing, routing and labour productivity, which could lower costs over the long term if implementation succeeds 13.
Competitive position
XPO operates in highly competitive markets where customers choose among many transportation providers, and North American LTL competitors include local, regional and national carriers 1. The company differentiates itself through service quality, scale, expertise and technology, according to its filings 1.
In Europe the competitive landscape differs by service type, whether LTL, dedicated or brokered full truckload, or multimodal solutions 1. The company argues that its ability to keep investing gives it capacity and technology advantages across the cycle 1.
- Old Dominion Freight LineODFL
A North American LTL carrier named as a direct competitor in the company's filing 1.
- SaiaSAIA
A North American LTL carrier named as a direct competitor in the company's filing 1.
- Local and regional LTL carriers
Smaller North American carriers offering the same LTL services, not separately listed in the sources reviewed 1.
- European transport and logistics operators
Local and regional providers of full truckload, LTL and multimodal solutions in Europe, varying by service 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
- Current report29 Oct 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report29 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report03 Sept 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Jul 2026
- Current report30 Jul 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report30 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report27 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report03 Jun 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report01 Jun 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / XPO, Inc. · 05 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / XPO, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / XPO, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.