olivLaw · US equity research
IonQ, Inc. IONQ
Services-Computer Integrated Systems Design · SIC 7373 · Vertical: Services-Computer Integrated Systems Design (SIC 7373)
IonQ develops quantum computers and sells them along with quantum networking, sensing, security and satellite data products, either directly or as cloud access. Its second-quarter 2026 revenue reached $80.1 million, up 287% year on year, while operating losses remain large and full-year 2026 guidance is $280-290 million.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) stock was 29.54 USD (−1.50% on the day), with market capitalisation 11.3 bn USD, beta 3.10, 52-week range 26.59–72.07 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 80.1 m USD (+286.8% YoY), net income of -1.9 bn USD, diluted EPS -5.08 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 36.9
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 26.49 – 38.48
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.25 · band width 36.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 37.39 / 41.73
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -2.55 / -2.46
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −31.3% | −2.0% | −29.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −26.0% | −2.2% | −23.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | −43.8% | +4.3% | −48.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | −34.2% | +10.6% | −44.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | −44.7% | +10.5% | −55.1 pp | −33.2% |
| 3 years | +155.1% | +73.7% | +81.4 pp | −27.7% |
| 5 years | +53.3% | +61.7% | −8.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 12.4 m | 11.7 m | 7.6 m | 20.7 m | 39.9 m | 61.9 m | 64.7 m | 80.1 m |
| Cost of revenue | 6.5 m | 5.0 m | 4.3 m | 8.3 m | 21.3 m | 43.6 m | 49.3 m | 60.1 m |
| Research & development | 33.2 m | 40.1 m | 40.0 m | 103.4 m | 66.3 m | 96.1 m | 125.7 m | 160.6 m |
| Operating income | -53.1 m | -77.5 m | -75.7 m | -160.6 m | -168.8 m | -228.6 m | -271.5 m | -337.2 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 4.9 m | 5.5 m | 6.6 m | 10.6 m | 24.2 m | 40.6 m | 43.1 m | 46.1 m |
| Pre-tax income | -52.5 m | -202.0 m | -32.2 m | -192.8 m | -1.1 bn | 728.4 m | 798.2 m | -1.9 bn |
| Income tax | 16.0 k | 20.0 k | 12.0 k | -15.3 m | -4.4 m | -24.9 m | -6.4 m | -6.1 m |
| Net income | -52.5 m | -202.0 m | -32.3 m | -176.8 m | -1.1 bn | 753.7 m | 805.4 m | -1.9 bn |
| Diluted EPS | -0.24 | -0.93 ≈ | -0.14 | -0.70 | -3.58 | 2.18 ≈ | 2.07 | -5.08 |
| Operating cash flow | -19.2 m ≈ | -39.4 m | -33.0 m | -52.6 m ≈ | -123.1 m ≈ | -74.5 m | -151.0 m | -103.8 m ≈ |
| Capex | 3.8 m ≈ | 3.6 m | 2.3 m | 1.2 m ≈ | 4.1 m ≈ | 8.8 m | 8.4 m | 10.2 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 0 | 2.1 m | 1.2 bn | 22.0 m | 43.1 m | 130.0 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +58,737.5% | −98.2% | +95.4% | +201.9% |
| Net income | -15.4 m | -106.2 m | -48.5 m | -157.8 m | -331.6 m | -510.4 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | -0.77 | -0.25 | -0.78 | -1.56 | -1.82 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | unavailable | -5,058.9% | -3.9% | -715.8% | -770.0% | -392.6% |
| Free cash flow | -22.0 m | -34.3 m | -54.0 m | -92.5 m | -123.7 m | -299.6 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.0 bn USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 3.8 bn USD
- Total assets
- 6.6 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 15.50x
- ROE
- -24.3%
- ROA
- -14.4%
- FCF margin
- -230.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 0 | 2.1 m | 1.2 bn | 22.0 m | 43.1 m | 130.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 143.0 k | 1.0 m | 2.9 m | 8.1 m | 20.6 m | 77.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | -143.0 k ≈ | 1.1 m ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 13.9 m ≈ | 22.5 m ≈ | 52.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Research & development | 10.2 m | 20.2 m | 44.0 m | 92.3 m | 136.8 m | 305.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -15.7 m | -38.7 m | -85.7 m | -157.8 m | -232.5 m | -633.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 1.4 m | 2.5 m | 5.6 m | 10.4 m | 18.7 m | 82.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -14.3 m ≈ | -36.1 m ≈ | -80.1 m ≈ | -147.4 m ≈ | -213.8 m ≈ | -551.7 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | -15.4 m | -106.2 m | -48.5 m | -157.7 m | -331.6 m | -556.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 48.0 k | 59.0 k | -44.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -15.4 m | -106.2 m | -48.5 m | -157.8 m | -331.6 m | -510.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | — | -0.77 | -0.25 | -0.78 | -1.56 | -1.82 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | — | 137.6 m | 197.7 m | 202.6 m | 213.0 m | 280.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 36.1 m | 399.0 m | 44.4 m | 35.7 m | 54.4 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 390.0 k | 707.0 k | 3.3 m | 11.5 m | 10.2 m | 66.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | — | — | — | 0 | 10.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 38.6 m | 529.6 m | 371.6 m | 390.0 m | 378.8 m | 2.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 12.0 m | 18.9 m | 26.0 m | 37.5 m | 52.8 m | 120.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | 0 | 742.0 k | 742.0 k | 9.9 m | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 2.7 m | 5.8 m | 8.9 m | 15.1 m | 29.5 m | 767.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 60.5 m | 642.0 m | 598.0 m | 553.6 m | 508.4 m | 6.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 538.0 k | 1.9 m | 3.1 m | 5.6 m | 5.2 m | 26.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.9 m | 9.7 m | 20.2 m | 37.2 m | 36.1 m | 166.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 6.8 m | 50.8 m | 29.8 m | 68.6 m | 124.5 m | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 53.7 m † | 591.2 m † | 568.2 m | 485.0 m | 383.9 m | 3.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -12.0 m | -26.5 m | -44.7 m | -78.8 m | -105.7 m | -283.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 10.0 m | 7.8 m | 9.3 m | 13.7 m | 18.0 m | 16.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -22.0 m ≈ | -34.3 m ≈ | -54.0 m ≈ | -92.5 m ≈ | -123.7 m ≈ | -299.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -11.7 m | -213.8 m | -309.1 m | 68.8 m | 82.7 m | -2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 276.0 k | 603.2 m | 1.1 m | 1.8 m | 41.7 m | 3.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 11.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
72% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/Salesunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin · Quality | 29.3% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| EBIT margin · Quality | -408.2% | 21 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF margin · Quality | -196.3% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -52.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 24% |
| Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth | 201.9% | 95 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 10.7x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EV/Sales · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -4.3% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Growth32/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality6/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/1 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
IonQ, Inc. (IONQ). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 130.0 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 201.9%; net margin -553.3%; ROE -60.8%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue growth (YoY): 201.9%
- Current ratio: 10.7x
What contradicts it
- Gross margin: 29.3%
- EBIT margin: -408.2%
- FCF margin: -196.3%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -52.8%
- FCF yield: -4.3%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, EV/Sales, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Services-Computer Integrated Systems Design (SIC 7373) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LDOSLeidos Holdings, Inc. | 16.4 bn | 12.1 | 28.2% | 8.0% | +3.1% | −30% / +26% |
| GDDYGoDaddy Inc. | 14.3 bn | 16.2 | — | 18.6% | +8.3% | −7% / +18% |
| CACICACI International Inc | 14.0 bn | 25.9 | 12.5% | 5.5% | +10.9% | +2% / +97% |
| JKHYJack Henry & Associates, Inc. | 12.6 bn | 25.7 | 24.0% | 19.8% | +7.1% | +3% / +13% |
| IONQIonQ, Inc. | 11.3 bn | — | -60.8% | -553.3% | +201.9% | −45% / +155% |
| OTEXOpen Text Corp | 6.4 bn | 10.3 | 16.2% | 12.3% | +1.5% | −21% / −34% |
| SAICScience Applications International Corporation | 6.3 bn | 17.6 | 25.7% | 5.1% | −2.9% | +75% / +28% |
| WAYWaystar Holding Corp. | 5.7 bn | 42.9 | 3.7% | 10.7% | +16.5% | −20% / unavailable |
| KDKyndryl Holdings, Inc. | 3.7 bn | 46.2 | 7.6% | 0.6% | +0.2% | −35% / −7% |
| AGYSAgilysys, Inc. | 3.5 bn | 78.5 | 13.6% | 12.9% | +15.9% | −0% / +42% |
| NTCTNetscout Systems Inc | 2.8 bn | 23.3 | 7.5% | 13.7% | +4.5% | +42% / +90% |
| AURAurora Innovation, Inc. | 2.6 bn | — | -45.7% | -13,328.6% | unavailable | −3% / +86% |
| PONYPony AI Inc. | 2.1 bn | — | -10.3% | -148.9% | +20.0% | −65% / unavailable |
| OSPNOneSpan Inc. | 872.9 m | 13.2 | 26.8% | 27.5% | +0.0% | +94% / +136% |
| TLSTelos Corporation | 378.2 m | — | -14.9% | -8.1% | +52.2% | −12% / +23% |
| SLPSimulations Plus, Inc. | 374.2 m | 46.7 | 6.2% | 9.9% | +13.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| SMRTSmartrent, Inc. | 310.4 m | — | -8.4% | -13.0% | −12.9% | −6% / −48% |
| ASURAsure Software, Inc. | 293.6 m | — | -1.9% | — | +24.3% | +22% / +22% |
| VEEAVeea Inc. | 281.2 m | — | — | -2,491.9% | +56.6% | −55% / −98% |
| RBBNRibbon Communications Inc. | 275.9 m | 22.5 | 5.0% | 2.3% | +1.3% | −46% / −28% |
| KDKKodiak AI, Inc. | 220.7 m | — | — | -4,259.6% | −74.6% | −82% / unavailable |
| AIOSAIOS Tech Inc. | 138.9 m | — | -208.9% | -4,359.1% | −98.5% | −87% / −86% |
| MRLNMerlin, Inc. | 91.5 m | — | — | — | unavailable | −92% / unavailable |
| CSPICSP Inc | 75.4 m | — | -1.5% | -1.2% | +6.4% | −35% / −40% |
| HCTIHealthcare Triangle, Inc. | 69.2 m | — | -57.4% | -66.3% | +18.8% | −97% / −100% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for IONQ from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
IonQ develops quantum computers and sells them along with quantum networking, sensing, security and satellite data products, either directly or as cloud access. Its second-quarter 2026 revenue reached $80.1 million, up 287% year on year, while operating losses remain large and full-year 2026 guidance is $280-290 million.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company reports rapid revenue growth and a broad footprint, from hardware to cloud, networking, sensing and security. It also has a solid financial position, with substantial liquidity at June 30, 2026.
- Its patent portfolio and intellectual property, including technology licensed exclusively, are presented as an advantage in research and in the commercial value of its products.
- In 2025 the company achieved a world-record two-qubit gate fidelity, which supports its technology reputation.
Weaknesses
- Operating losses remain large, and the company is still in the early stage of commercial growth, which makes long-term forecasting difficult.
- Revenue is concentrated in a few large customers, and losing any of them could reduce revenue significantly.
- The company acknowledges it has not yet produced a scalable quantum computer, and expanding production may face technical and logistical difficulties.
Opportunities
- Recent executive orders and defense interest could open government and commercial contracts, especially if networking and security products prove useful.
- Integrating SkyWater could add in-house fabrication and packaging capacity, which could speed up system development and reduce dependence on third parties.
- If cloud partnerships and international clients expand, the company could diversify revenue and attract more commercial customers.
Threats
- Competitors could achieve breakthroughs that make IonQ systems obsolete, and the lifecycle of quantum technology may be short.
- Macroeconomic conditions, interest rates and trade tariffs could raise costs and make obtaining financing harder.
- Intellectual property litigation and public-contract regulations could generate significant costs and restrictions.
Risks
- Persistent operating losseshigh
The company expects significant losses for the foreseeable future and cannot guarantee it will ever become profitable. If investments in research and production do not turn into revenue, losses could grow.
- Scalability of the technologyhigh
The company has not produced a scalable quantum computer, and difficulties with ion trap stability or connecting traps could reduce performance and raise costs.
- Customer concentrationmedium
A significant share of revenue comes from a few customers, and losing one could materially affect results.
- Integration of acquisitionsmedium
Recent acquisitions, including SkyWater, carry integration risks and additional costs, and the expected benefits may not be fully realized.
- Regulatory and government contract risksmedium
Government contracts can be terminated, audited or sanctioned, and satellite operations depend on regulatory approvals that could be delayed or denied.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If revenue growth from recent quarters holds and the 2026 guidance is reached, the company could show that demand for its quantum platform is real and durable.
- If executive orders and defense interest translate into contracts, the company could benefit from long-term government demand.
- SkyWater integration could offer a manufacturing advantage, and an integrated platform could become hard for competitors to replicate.
What would break the thesis
- Operating losses remain very large relative to revenue, and if margin improvement does not appear, dependence on outside financing could increase.
- The technology has not yet been proven at commercial scale, and if technical obstacles persist, growth could slow or demand could fall.
- Acquisitions and rapid growth could complicate integration and reduce returns if the expected synergies do not materialize.
What to watch
- Achievement of the 2026 revenue guidance and quarterly revenue paceQ3 2026
- SkyWater's contribution to results and integration costsQ3 2026
- Progress toward the 256-qubit quantum computer and error correction2026
- Trajectory of losses and liquidity after acquisitionsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
IonQ presents itself as a quantum platform company that sells specialized quantum hardware, complementary networking, sensing and security products, and access to quantum computers through three major cloud platforms and its own service (QCaaS). Revenue comes from system sales and cloud access, consulting on algorithms, and imagery and data from a satellite constellation. The company says it is in the early stages of commercial growth and expects significant losses for the foreseeable future, so it is still far from profitability.
Segments
Quantum computers and quantum access
This line includes specialized quantum hardware, full quantum system sales and direct or QCaaS access. Revenue is largely recognized over time based on effort incurred, and the Tempo systems supported the growth reported in 2026.
Networking, sensing and security
Quantum networking, quantum sensing and quantum security products complement the computers and are generally recognized at delivery or on completion of services. The 2025 acquisitions of Lightsynq, id Quantique, Vector Atomic and Capella Space strengthened this line, and multi-product revenue was about 25% of second-quarter 2026 revenue.
Satellite data
Through its satellite network the company offers data-as-a-service, including synthetic-aperture radar imagery. The launch of an InSAR capability and a record number of on-orbit optical terminals support this line, which could later add quantum positioning, navigation and timing services.
Market context
The company describes a market in which chemistry simulation, optimization, Monte Carlo and machine learning problems could benefit from quantum computers if these are developed successfully. An external study cited in the annual report estimates more than 50 billion USD in government and private investment and up to 2 trillion USD of economic value over the next ten years. These are market estimates, not assured revenue for IonQ.
Demand from governments and defense has grown alongside recent executive orders on quantum technologies, which the company welcomes and which could open new contracts. The commercial market remains early, and adoption depends on algorithms maturing and on clients having sufficient quantum resources.
Trends
- Executive orders on quantum technologiestailwind
The company welcomes White House executive orders that treat sensing, networking, security and quantum computing as national priorities. If these priorities translate into public procurement, demand for IonQ products could grow.
- Growing interest from government and defensemixed
Memorandums of understanding signed with a defense company and a national laboratory point to interest in national security projects. Such contracts can be long, subject to strict rules, and can be terminated or audited.
- Vertical integration through a foundry acquisitionmixed
The SkyWater acquisition, closed on July 31, 2026, could speed up quantum processor development through a semiconductor foundry with advanced packaging capabilities. Current guidance does not include SkyWater's contribution, and integration brings costs and risks.
- Operating costs and financing conditionsheadwind
The company warns that inflation, high interest rates, tariffs and wage pressure could raise costs and make financing on acceptable terms harder to obtain. These conditions matter especially for a company with large losses.
Competitive position
The quantum computing market is global and competitive, and the company acknowledges that rivals may achieve technological breakthroughs that could make its systems obsolete or less attractive. The annual report does not detail competitors' positions, so a concrete assessment of relative advantage remains limited to what the sources state.
- Other quantum computer developers
The company refers in general terms to global competitors who could develop technologies that make IonQ systems less competitive. The sources do not name them.
- Cloud platforms hosting IonQ systems
Amazon, Microsoft and Google are both distribution channels for IonQ and potential competitors in quantum computing access. The relationship is described as a partnership in the sources.
- Quantum networking and security providers
The sources show IonQ also competes in quantum networking and security, where global players exist. These competitors are not named in the available texts.
- Other sensing and Earth-observation satellite companies
In quantum sensing and satellite data, the company enters markets already served by other providers. The sources give no details about them.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report16 Oct 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report13 Oct 2026Material agreement · Item 3.02 · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 Sept 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report10 Aug 2026
- Current report07 Aug 2026Item 3.02 · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report31 Jul 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 Jul 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report22 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / IonQ, Inc. · 25 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / IonQ, Inc. · 10 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / IonQ, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.